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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: 2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon


2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon

By Christopher Rosa

  • $240K Target: Bitcoin is projected to reach $240K by late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by global liquidity, the halving, and institutional demand via spot ETFs.
  • Liquidity Drivers: Bitcoin’s bull run will be fueled by U.S. fiscal easing, China’s liquidity injections, spot ETF demand, and the upcoming 2024 halving event.
  • Strategic Timing: Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin will peak in late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by synchronized global liquidity expansion and institutional adoption.

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Daily Brief Australia: Amaero International Ltd, Structural Monitoring Cdi and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation
  • Structural Monitoring Systems – 80% of low-end revenue guidance covered


Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following the company’s recent announcements that it has ordered its third EIGA and that it has secured Aerospace Quality Management System AS9100D accreditation for the Tennessee facility for the manufacturing and testing of metal powder and PM-HIP production, both important milestones on the path to commercialisation.
  • We have already incorporated the company’s capex guidance in our forecasts so do not anticipate any change to our estimates from these announcements.
  • Our base-case DCF valuation is $1.16/share, fully diluted, which represents potential capital upside of 346%.

Structural Monitoring Systems – 80% of low-end revenue guidance covered

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on vertically-integrated aviation designer and manufacturer Structural Monitoring Systems (ASX:SMN) following the company’s update on its guidance which suggests that 80% or $24m of the $30m low-end FY25 revenue guidance is now contracted.
  • SMN has provided an update to FY25 guidance announced on November 1, where revenue was guided to $30m-$34m, +14% at the midpoint on FY24, and for EBITDA of between $7.6m and $9.1m, +300% at the midpoint on FY24.
  • The update suggests 80% or $24m of the $30m low-end revenue guidance is now contracted following a successful year-end sales campaign for the new Forest Radio product.

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Daily Brief South Korea: SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF, LG CNS, Samyang Foods and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact
  • LG CNS Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Retail Demand Appears Hot, Digestible Val at Bottom End
  • LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?


Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Fed shock pushing the won past 1,450 and the KOSPI down, it’s time to dig into the stabilization fund—its size, timing, and which stocks will catch the flow.
  • With ₩10T in play, even spread over 10 stages, it could drive significant price impact. NPS’s ₩1.5T injection in December shows how even smaller flows move the market.
  • The FSC plans to focus on KOSPI 200 and broad market ETFs, with new ETFs like the Value-Up Index likely getting more flow—target stocks in both for bigger impact.

LG CNS Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Retail Demand Appears Hot, Digestible Val at Bottom End

By Clarence Chu

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
  • LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

LS Electric, Then Hyundai Rotem, Now Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo: Same Proactive Flow?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local hedge funds, mainly prop traders and PEs, drove the price action in LS Electric and Hyundai Rotem, and are now leading net buying in Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo.
  • Given the setup, it’s likely Samyang Foods and HD Hyundai Mipo will follow a similar move until mid-January when screening starts, so we should stay aware of this backdrop.
  • This gives us a chance to capture upside. Plus, since Samyang Foods and Hyundai Mipo may pull back 30-40% post-screening, there’s also a solid opportunity during that dip.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Cal Comp Electronics Thailand, Berli Jucker, CP Axtra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn
  • CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) – Governance Concerns over Property Investment


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀

By Brian Freitas


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. 
  • The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. 
  • Berli Jucker‘s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. 

CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) – Governance Concerns over Property Investment

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. 
  • Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra’s business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  
  • The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent CP ALL by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost


India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
  • Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
  • Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

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Daily Brief United States: Tempus AI, Broadcom , Bitcoin, Nasdaq Inc, ServiceTitan, Citigroup Inc, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Sonos Inc, Crude Oil, Sealed Air Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers
  • Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! – Major Drivers
  • 2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon
  • Nasdaq CEO: Tech Innovation, Leadership and Fighting Financial Crime
  • ServiceTitan (TTAN US): Lock-Ups Prevent Inclusion in US & Global Indices
  • Citigroup Inc (C) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity – Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew
  • Sonos (SONO) – Thursday, Sep 19, 2024
  • [ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports
  • Sealed Air Corp (SEE) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024


Tempus AI: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion in Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing & 4 Other Factors That Could Shape Its Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tempus AI reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting positive revenue growth but continuing to face profitability challenges.
  • Revenue rose by 33%, reaching $180.9 million, driven by growth in the Genomics and Data and Services segments.
  • Notably, the Genomics unit growth accelerated to 23.9%, which shows a significant uptick from the previous quarter.

Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom Inc.’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.
  • The company’s consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.
  • This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom’s financial achievements.

2025 High Conviction: Bitcoin Long – New All-Time Highs on the Horizon

By Christopher Rosa

  • $240K Target: Bitcoin is projected to reach $240K by late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by global liquidity, the halving, and institutional demand via spot ETFs.
  • Liquidity Drivers: Bitcoin’s bull run will be fueled by U.S. fiscal easing, China’s liquidity injections, spot ETF demand, and the upcoming 2024 halving event.
  • Strategic Timing: Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin will peak in late Q3–Q4 2025, driven by synchronized global liquidity expansion and institutional adoption.

Nasdaq CEO: Tech Innovation, Leadership and Fighting Financial Crime

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Nicola Tangen and Adena Friedman discuss the importance of integrity, transparency, and trust in the financial system
  • Nasdaq’s vision is to be the trusted fabric for the world’s financial system, focusing on technology and partnerships
  • Adena shares her leadership journey, emphasizing the importance of empowerment, curiosity, and kindness in leadership. She also highlights the lessons learned from Korean kickboxing, pottery, and pickleball in relaxation and personal growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ServiceTitan (TTAN US): Lock-Ups Prevent Inclusion in US & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the one Global Index for the next 12 months due to undisclosed shareholdings which remain locked for one year following the IPO.
  • ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the next 6 months for the US and the other Global Index because it fails public voting rights.
  • ServiceTitan’s earliest addition is forecasted for September 2025 in the one Global Index following the IPO lock-up expiry unless there is a material conversion of unlisted shares.

Citigroup Inc (C) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investors are disappointed with Citigroup’s lackluster profitability compared to other large US banks, leading to a low valuation of 0.65x TBV
  • Potential for improvement as the company has excess capital and may be able to increase profitability to reach a 10% ROTE in the next two years
  • Predictions suggest that if Citigroup reaches its targets, there could be a significant increase in share value, with TBV/share reaching $100 and EPS of $10 by 2026, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to take a risk on the bank’s future performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


EQD | Nasdaq-100 Index Option Opportunity – Tactical Play on an Oversold Market and Volatility Skew

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.
  • Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.
  • Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.

Sonos (SONO) – Thursday, Sep 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investing in Sonos (SONO) is viewed as a potential opportunity for strong returns in the next few years, despite the company facing challenges.
  • The company’s current situation is likened to Chipotle during its E. coli incident, where long-term investors saw significant gains.
  • While not a traditional value investment, investing in Sonos at a lower price is considered an intriguing opportunity, and research on the company is recommended before making a decision.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.

Sealed Air Corp (SEE) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Sealed Air is undervalued and poised for a turnaround, with a price target of $49 per share
  • The Protective segment has been underperforming due to ties to the PC market and economic indicators
  • Sum-of-parts valuation method used, with different multiples applied to Protective and Food segments, indicating significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: IGI (India) Limited, LG Electronics India, KCP Ltd, Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL), Ventive Hospitality Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand
  • LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis
  • The Beat Ideas: KCP Limited- Cement Business Undervaluation
  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Ventive Hospitality Pre-IPO – Leveraging Expanded Portfolio to Drive Growth
  • India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost


IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • International Gemmological Institute (India) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. 
  • IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and IPO valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

LG Electronics India IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of LG Electronics India is implied market cap of 1,256 billion INR or US$14.7 billion.
  • Several media accounts have mentioned that LGEI could be targeting a valuation of about US$13 billion to US$15 billion.
  • LGEI’s valuation would need to be about US$13 billion or less in order for us to be Bullish on this IPO. 

The Beat Ideas: KCP Limited- Cement Business Undervaluation

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • KCP Ltd (KCPL IN) is available at a significant discount due to underperformance and margin deterioration.
  • The sugar sector is performing well due to higher realization and higher sugar cultivation. 
  • The company is poised for a high valuation if it demerges or sale its cement business, which is a big drag in the overall valuation. 

Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN) is planning to raise about US$118m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, Kotak.
  • BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand. 
  • It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand and is the second largest digital-first omni-channel jewellery brand in India in terms of revenues for FY24 as per RedSeer Report.

Ventive Hospitality Pre-IPO – Leveraging Expanded Portfolio to Drive Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Ventive Hospitality Ltd (0807075D IN) is looking to raise about US$188m in its India IPO. The deal, a fresh issue of shares is downsized from an earlier target of ~US$240m.
  • Ventive Hospitality Limited (VHL) is the largest hospitality asset owner amongst public listed market peers, focused primarily on luxury offerings across business and leisure in India and Maldives.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
  • Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
  • Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

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Daily Brief Japan: Kadokawa, Shimano Inc, Beenos Inc, Nextage Co Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Iino Kaiun Kaisha, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, ODK Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover
  • Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal
  • Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024
  • The Impact of the 2025 Revision of the Stewardship Code Is …
  • IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update
  • India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost
  • ODK Solutions (3839 JP) – Initiation


Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Kadokawa (9468 JP) announced it would sell ¥50bn of shares to Sony (6758 JP) in a 3rd Party Allotment to cement a Strategic/Capital Alliance. Sony will own 10% at ¥4,146/share.
  • 40% of proceeds is to “create and develop new IP”, 60% is to “enhance global IP distribution”; both over 5yrs. Given ¥108bn of net cash/securities, this is a garbage reason. 
  • Kadokawa shares have gained 44% in a month since Reuters carried an “Exclusive” article saying Sony was in talks to acquire Kadokawa. This is defensive entrenchment. The result will disappoint.

Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano, the Japanese maker of bicycle components and fishing equipment, is in need of a strategic gear change
  • A significant -25% decline in FY23 net sales highlights Shimano’s struggles. Revenues dropped a further -11% in the first nine months of 2024
  • For investors seeking opportunity at the bottom of the cycle, Shimano presents a compelling case. The stock is trading at 2.3x book value

LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Early today, the Nikkei had an article saying LY (4689 JP) would launch a takeover of Beenos Inc (3328 JP). The stock went limit up. Shorts are many times ADV. 
  • Post-Close, we get a deal much as implied by the Nikkei article. It seems light to me but the top three holders have agreed to the deal.
  • Regulatory will take a couple of months. This will likely fall tomorrow. If you are a long-only fund holder, think about the alternatives (read the conclusions here).

Nextage (3186) – Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Nextage is a prominent player in Japan’s fragmented used car dealer market
  • The company is looking to grow through suburban superstores, similar to CarMax in the US
  • Despite recent scandal involving competitors, Nextage is positioned for growth with potential for expansion in Japan’s used vehicle market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


The Impact of the 2025 Revision of the Stewardship Code Is …

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For investors, it is a step forward to lower the hurdles for collaborative engagement, and for institutional investors, it is a step forward to reduce costs. 
  • It is hoped that passive funds, which have been reluctant to engage in engagement due to cost, will take a more positive approach.
  • Rule amendments to make it easier to identify substantial shareholders are expected to be negotiated in advance with substantial shareholders prior to voting.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • FY24 OP WAS REVISED DOWN GIVEN SURGING VARIOUS COSTS.
  • NO CHANGE IN MEDIUM-TERM PLAN TARGETS.
  • IINO revised its FY24 guidance from OP of ¥19,200mil (+0.7% YoY) on sales of ¥145,000mil (+5.1% YoY) to OP of ¥17,400mil (-8.7% YoY) on sales of ¥146,000mil (+5.8%YoY).

India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
  • Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
  • Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

ODK Solutions (3839 JP) – Initiation

By Sessa Investment Research

  • ODK Solutions Company, Ltd. is an IT services company headquartered in Osaka that provides information processing services in the education, financial, and other general fields.
  • Its strength lies in the accurate processing of large volumes of highly sensitive data, and the Company boasts a leading share in Japan’s university entrance exam-related education field.
  • The Company was founded in 1963 as Osaka Denshi Keisan K.K., providing computing services for the Osaka Securities Finance (now Japan Securities Finance [8511]) Group. 

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Shanghai Electric Group Company, Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, CPMC Holdings, Bloks Group, BOC Aviation, PDD Holdings, China Longyuan Power, Huawei Technology, UBTech Robotics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea
  • CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market
  • BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield
  • Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)
  • Huawei to Spin off Smart Car Business Unit to Yinwang by Jan. 1
  • UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar25: Multiple Changes, Large Flows; High-Impact Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR50/STAR100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event and suggest a high impact trade idea.

CPMC (906 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December
  • The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
  • I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

Bloks Group IPO: Just a Traditional Toy Company in Red Ocean Market

By John Liu

  • Bloks Group, founded in 2014, is China’s top assembly character toy company, targetting primiary school students.
  • Bloks faces competition from multiple domestic competitors in a slow growing market. The company’s aggressive market expanison in the past 2 years has come at a significant cost .
  • The IPO valuation may be high, considering the industry’s low barriers to entry and the company’s unstainable growth.

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield

By John Liu

  • Global aviation supply continues to suffer from various supply chain disruptions, driving up lease rates and aircraft values and benefiting aircraft lessors, such as BOC Aviation (BOCA) 
  • Although BOCA’s interim results were disappointing due to delayed aircraft deliveries, I expect its momentum to recover in 2025, driven by incoming aircraft and lower interest costs. 
  • Stock is trading at 0.9x PB, nearing its historical trough of 0.8x, and offering a decent 5% dividend yield.

Temu Suffers First Big Setback as Vietnam Suspends Its Operations

By Caixin Global

  • Temu, the Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform owned by PDD Holdings Inc. has suffered its first major setback since launching in 2022 after Vietnam banned its operations citing regulatory non-compliance only two months after it entered the market.
  • Temu was ordered by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to stop using the Vietnamese language on its website and app, to notify customers that its e-commerce registration was under review, and to halt all marketing activities in the country, according to a report by Vietnam News Agency on Dec.
  • The suspension is Temu’s first since expanding into more than 80 countries around the world.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (December 13)

By David Mudd

  • The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.
  • China Longyuan Power (916 HK) was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 
  • China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.

Huawei to Spin off Smart Car Business Unit to Yinwang by Jan. 1

By Caixin Global

  • The tech giant Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd is to complete the spinoff of its intelligent automotive business unit to become an independent company, Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co.
  • Huawei’s aim is to solidify its position as a leading smart vehicle supplier amid industry challenges and expanding partnerships.

  • Founded in 2019, Huawei’s car business unit originally said it would not make cars itself, but focus on supplying automotive components, particularly autonomous driving systems, through its Huawei Inside (HI) model.


UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity

By Clarence Chu

  • UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 29th Dec 2023 after it raised US$130m. Its one-year lockup will expire on 28th Dec 2024.
  • UBTech Robotics is engaged in artificial intelligence (AI)-empowered robotics in China, dedicated to the innovation of humanoid robots and development and sales of smart service robotic solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Most Read: Hang Seng TECH Index, Phison Electronics, Kadokawa, Cal Comp Electronics Thailand, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Shimano Inc, Mphb Capital, Beenos Inc, Shanghai Electric Group Company, SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?
  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact
  • Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover
  • SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀
  • Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved
  • Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)’s Offer: Almost There As ISM Exhausts Options
  • LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact


How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

By Brian Freitas

  • It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.
  • Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.
  • As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$3.2bn Trade with BIG Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 changes a side for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919TW) has an AUM of US$9.3bn.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 17.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. All adds and deletes have over 5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF started trading some stocks late last week and the rest from 17 December.

Sony To Buy 7+% Stake in Kadokawa (9468 JP) For ¥50bn, Ending Near-Term Hopes of Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Kadokawa (9468 JP) announced it would sell ¥50bn of shares to Sony (6758 JP) in a 3rd Party Allotment to cement a Strategic/Capital Alliance. Sony will own 10% at ¥4,146/share.
  • 40% of proceeds is to “create and develop new IP”, 60% is to “enhance global IP distribution”; both over 5yrs. Given ¥108bn of net cash/securities, this is a garbage reason. 
  • Kadokawa shares have gained 44% in a month since Reuters carried an “Exclusive” article saying Sony was in talks to acquire Kadokawa. This is defensive entrenchment. The result will disappoint.

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀

By Brian Freitas


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett


Shimano: An Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano, the Japanese maker of bicycle components and fishing equipment, is in need of a strategic gear change
  • A significant -25% decline in FY23 net sales highlights Shimano’s struggles. Revenues dropped a further -11% in the first nine months of 2024
  • For investors seeking opportunity at the bottom of the cycle, Shimano presents a compelling case. The stock is trading at 2.3x book value

MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)’s Offer: Almost There As ISM Exhausts Options

By David Blennerhassett

  • MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)‘s delisting Offer via a selective capital reduction (SCR) from controlling shareholder and chairman Tan Sri Surin Upatkoon appears to be in the home straight.
  • The completion of the Offer has been delayed as ISM Sdn Bhd, MPHB’s minority partner in six JVs, invokes various legal options in an ongoing dispute.
  • The High Court has now fixed 6 January 2025 as the hearing date for the SCR petition. Assuming that is granted, payment is likely mid-Feb.  

LY Corp (4689) Announces Takeover of Beenos (3328) – Lightish at ¥4,000 But A Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Early today, the Nikkei had an article saying LY (4689 JP) would launch a takeover of Beenos Inc (3328 JP). The stock went limit up. Shorts are many times ADV. 
  • Post-Close, we get a deal much as implied by the Nikkei article. It seems light to me but the top three holders have agreed to the deal.
  • Regulatory will take a couple of months. This will likely fall tomorrow. If you are a long-only fund holder, think about the alternatives (read the conclusions here).

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Fed shock pushing the won past 1,450 and the KOSPI down, it’s time to dig into the stabilization fund—its size, timing, and which stocks will catch the flow.
  • With ₩10T in play, even spread over 10 stages, it could drive significant price impact. NPS’s ₩1.5T injection in December shows how even smaller flows move the market.
  • The FSC plans to focus on KOSPI 200 and broad market ETFs, with new ETFs like the Value-Up Index likely getting more flow—target stocks in both for bigger impact.

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Sign Up for Free

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  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
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