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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 19
0

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Tower Ltd, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, K Bank, Korea Zinc, Adani Enterprises, Hotel Property Investments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – The Long Stop Date to Extend or Not?
  • TCM (570 HK): “Uncertain” To Spook Shares
  • Couche-Tard Execs in Tokyo, “Hoping” For Meetings But Really There To Hold a Press Conference
  • S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price
  • K-Bank’s IPO Cancellation: What Led to This Move and Plan for a Comeback
  • Korea Zinc’s 2.4% Treasury Shares – Devil Is In the Legal Loophole
  • Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying
  • Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid
  • Need a Game Plan to Tackle Korea Zinc’s Buyback Tender with a 20% Proration Risk

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – The Long Stop Date to Extend or Not?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Investors are concerned the Long Stop Date may be extended.But the style of SOEs is rigorous, which means CNPGC has anticipated the potential delays and reserved more time in advance. 
  • Although CNPGC can extend Long Stop Date, this indicates CNPGC fails to complete the set work in scheduled time, which is equivalent to admitting its previous work arrangement was “inappropriate”.
  • If there’re unexpected circumstances, one possible scenario is privatization would be completed before the Chinese New Year.Because entering 2025, integrating China TCM and Taiji will be the focus of CNPGC.

TCM (570 HK): “Uncertain” To Spook Shares

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) will fall today. Perhaps a lot.
  • With two days left on the clock to secure the pre-conditions (18th October), the Offeror said “it remains uncertain” whether it can secure an extension from the investor group.
  • Such wording could be viewed as boilerplate SFC legalise. I would argue the use of “uncertain” is superfluous, unhelpful, and for investors, downright worrying. 

Couche-Tard Execs in Tokyo, “Hoping” For Meetings But Really There To Hold a Press Conference

By Travis Lundy

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)‘s CEO, former CEO, CFO, and founder were in Tokyo today giving a press conference about their trip and designs on Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP). 
  • There was some passive-aggressive behaviour. Their bid was better than 7&i’s plan. They said it was a high price. They said they wanted to meet management, the ITOs, the government. 
  • None of that will win the hearts and minds of the Special Committee. 

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)

By Brian Freitas

  • Arvida (ARV NZ) will be deleted from the S&P/NZX 50 Index following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo. Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) will be added to the index.
  • Passive NZX50 Index trackers will need to buy nearly 18m shares of Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) – that is over 26 days of ADV.
  • There has been a lot of positioning in Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) since Stonepeak’s offer for Arvida (ARV NZ). There should be enough supply for the passive trackers. 

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

By Arun George

  • Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
  • This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
  • Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.

K-Bank’s IPO Cancellation: What Led to This Move and Plan for a Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • The institutional demand forecasts were much worse than expected, leading to the company’s blunt admission in the latest filing that the book-building flopped, prompting them to cancel the IPO.
  • Bankers NH and KB suggested an offering price below 8,500 KRW, but pre-IPO backers like Bain Capital and MBK strongly opposed, unhappy with shrinking proceeds, pushing for cancellation.
  • K-Bank plans to regroup and adjust the heavy 50% secondary share portion to retry the IPO in six months before their prelim review window expires.

Korea Zinc’s 2.4% Treasury Shares – Devil Is In the Legal Loophole

By Douglas Kim

  • Devil is in the legal loophole. Issuing treasury shares to employees as bonuses is an exception that is not bound by the condition of ‘6 months after treasury shares acquisition.
  • It would be nearly impossible for Korea Zinc to sell 2.4% of its treasury stock to an external friendly force and transform it into a friendly stake by February 2025.
  • Although MBK/Young Poong Alliance has the advantage right now in this M&A battle for Korea Zinc, it is by no means over.

Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In the overheated Indian markets where selling spree by promoters is going at record pace.
  • We identified certain interesting companies where promoters are buying giving confidence in their business
  • We further delve into the thesis and key triggers for these companies

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced – and summarily rejected – a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
  • Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best & final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 
  • HPI’s reported response? “While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value.“

Need a Game Plan to Tackle Korea Zinc’s Buyback Tender with a 20% Proration Risk

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS is now viewing their voting rights on Korea Zinc purely from a returns angle, shifting from earlier expectations of siding with Choi due to political pressure.
  • We need a tendering strategy for a 20% proration risk, focusing on when MBK will buy that extra 3.7% stake to cut losses on untendered shares.
  • MBK will aim to buy leftover shares cheaply. Their approach depends on the progress of Choi and Trafigura’s talks

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Adani Enterprises, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Alinco Inc, FuelCell Energy , Kbr Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying
  • Align Partners Goes Activist on Doosan Bobcat
  • Alinco Inc (5933 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update
  • FuelCell Energy Inc.: Expansion in South Korean Market
  • KBR Inc.: Can It Capitalize On Government & Defense Sector Opportunities? – Major Drivers

Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In the overheated Indian markets where selling spree by promoters is going at record pace.
  • We identified certain interesting companies where promoters are buying giving confidence in their business
  • We further delve into the thesis and key triggers for these companies

Align Partners Goes Activist on Doosan Bobcat

By Douglas Kim

  • On 18 October, a local activist fund Align Partners Asset Management started its “corporate activism” on Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • Align Partners sent a shareholder proposal letter requesting a significant increase in the shareholder return rate, including dividends and selling off non-core assets. 
  • We believe that Align Partners’ corporate activism on Doosan Bobcat is likely to have a positive impact on Doosan Bobcat’s share price.

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY03/25, revenue increased 5.4% YoY to JPY30.8bn, while operating profit declined 3.9% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
  • Segment profit for scaffolding equipment rentals grew 0.4% YoY to JPY1.3bn, with revenue up 15.1% YoY to JPY12.5bn.
  • Electronic Equipment segment revenue fell 10.0% YoY to JPY2.4bn, resulting in a segment loss of JPY326mn.

FuelCell Energy Inc.: Expansion in South Korean Market

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy, in its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, demonstrated a mixed financial performance amid evolving market conditions and significant strategic initiatives aimed at boosting its long-term growth trajectory.
  • The company reported quarterly revenues of $23.7 million, a slight decrease from the $25.5 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
  • This decline primarily resulted from a lack of module replacements in the current period, which had buoyed revenue in the prior year.

KBR Inc.: Can It Capitalize On Government & Defense Sector Opportunities? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KBR’s Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings detailed the company’s financial and operational milestones for the period, along with future projections and strategic plans.
  • One of the notable positives highlighted includes the increase in revenue, up by 6% year-on-year, which reflects a solid operational performance across all the business units.
  • The adjusted EBITDA also saw an impressive rise by 13%, illustrating effectiveness in managing profitability.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Constellation Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Constellation Brands Inc.: Strategic Focus On High-End & Diversified Portfolio Can Catapult Their Future Growth? – Major Drivers

Constellation Brands Inc.: Strategic Focus On High-End & Diversified Portfolio Can Catapult Their Future Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Constellation Brands delivered mixed results in its Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings, reflecting resilience amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The performance of the company’s segments varied, with strong growth in the Beer Business offset by headwinds in the Wine and Spirits division.
  • Starting on a positive note, Constellation Brands’ Beer Business continued its streak as a sector leader, demonstrating robust financial performance with net sales and operating income growing by nearly 6% and 13%, respectively.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Crude Oil, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Criterium Energy, Energy Transfer LP, Sealed Air Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Need a Game Plan to Tackle Korea Zinc’s Buyback Tender with a 20% Proration Risk
  • [ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook
  • Market Commentary Snapshot: Delaying EUDR Likely To Bring Supply Glut Back
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Encouraging drilling results. Decreasing opex
  • Energy Transfer LP: Expansion of Energy Transfer’s Export Terminals & Other Major Developments! – Key Drivers
  • Sealed Air Corporation: Enhanced Commercial Execution in Protective Packaging Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

Need a Game Plan to Tackle Korea Zinc’s Buyback Tender with a 20% Proration Risk

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS is now viewing their voting rights on Korea Zinc purely from a returns angle, shifting from earlier expectations of siding with Choi due to political pressure.
  • We need a tendering strategy for a 20% proration risk, focusing on when MBK will buy that extra 3.7% stake to cut losses on untendered shares.
  • MBK will aim to buy leftover shares cheaply. Their approach depends on the progress of Choi and Trafigura’s talks

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.
  • US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.

Market Commentary Snapshot: Delaying EUDR Likely To Bring Supply Glut Back

By Arusha Das

  • Requests for retraction in contracts by buyers 
  • Oversupply of spot cargoes feeds pessimistic expectations

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Encouraging drilling results. Decreasing opex

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Production to date in October is 950 bbl/d, the same level as reported on 24 September.
  • • The MGH-43 well has encountered 41 m of prospective gross sand intervals with good to excellent oil shows in the main TAF target that will now be perforated.
  • Due to unstable hole conditions in MGH-43, Criterium was unable to conduct pressure testing and resistivity calculations on the zones of interest and therefore could not determine the estimated productivity rates.

Energy Transfer LP: Expansion of Energy Transfer’s Export Terminals & Other Major Developments! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Energy Transfer’s Q2 2024 earnings report reveals a company navigating complex operational landscapes with a mixture of robust results and strategic adjustments, providing a broad perspective on its strengths and challenges as it plans forward.
  • The company reported a noticeable rise in their financial and operational metrics indicating vital signs of growth.
  • However, certain segments experienced downturns that could suggest areas requiring attention for future stability and improvement.

Sealed Air Corporation: Enhanced Commercial Execution in Protective Packaging Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sealed Air’s Q2 2024 earnings presentation provided detailed insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction under the leadership of the newly appointed CEO, Patrick Kivits.
  • This period also marked a reshuffling in the executive roles with Dustin Semach stepping up as President and CFO.
  • Sealed Air reported a quarter with mixed results, highlighting successes in its Food segment and ongoing challenges in the Protective segment.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Accenture Plc Cl A, Five9 Inc, Walmart, Micron Technology, Paychex Inc, Ringcentral Inc Class A and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC: Trading as if Valuations Don’t Matter
  • Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung’s Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus
  • TSMC Shares Surge 11% as Q3 Earnings Soar on AI Demand, Revenue Up 39% YoY
  • Accenture plc: How Is Its Approach Towards Strategic Bolt-On Acquisitions Working Out? – Major Drivers
  • Five9 Inc.: An Insight Into Its Competitive Advantage & Go-To-Market Strategy! – Major Drivers
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Oct-2024): ATE Energy boosts green energy & marine projects in PH.
  • Micron Technology Inc.: Tackling The Shifts in Customer Demand & Evolving Market Dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • Paychex Inc.: These Are The 4 Biggest Reasons For Our Pessimism! – Major Drivers
  • RingCentral Inc.: Strategic Global Service Provider Partnerships

TSMC: Trading as if Valuations Don’t Matter

By Pyari Menon

  • Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) surged on a robust results and raised revenue outlook, driven by strength in AI related demand.
  • Markets are overlooking the fact that many AI companies and solutions are unnecessary, unsustainable and will lead to blowups and consolidation.
  • We make the case for why TSMC is over valued and investors will likely get better entry levels.

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
  • TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
  • SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung’s Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
  • Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
  • TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long… TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators

TSMC Shares Surge 11% as Q3 Earnings Soar on AI Demand, Revenue Up 39% YoY

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$759.69 billion, marking a 39% year-over-year increase, surpassing the guidance range of NT$724-750 billion, driven by strong AI demand.
  • The company’s net income reached NT$325.3 billion, up 54% from last year and exceeding LSEG’s estimate of NT$300.2 billion, reflecting strong operational performance.
  • TSMC’s gross margin improved to 57.8%, an increase of 4.6% from Q2, highlighting enhanced profitability from advanced chip production amid growing AI applications.

Accenture plc: How Is Its Approach Towards Strategic Bolt-On Acquisitions Working Out? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Accenture recently reported its fourth quarter result for fiscal 2024, showcasing a mixture of strengths and setbacks.
  • As a multinational professional services company known for its capabilities in digital, cloud, and security, Accenture’s continued focus on embracing technological transformations, particularly Generative AI (GenAI), and adapting to market demands are pivotal points observed from the earnings report.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Five9 Inc.: An Insight Into Its Competitive Advantage & Go-To-Market Strategy! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the latest earnings discussion of Five9, Chairman and CEO Mike Burkland relayed a mixed set of results, presenting a blend of successes and challenges.
  • The company achieved an annual revenue run rate exceeding $1 billion, primarily driven by a 21% year-over-year growth in LTM Enterprise subscription revenue.
  • Alongside, the adjusted EBITDA margin improved sequentially to 17% of revenue, contributing robustly to a strong LTM operating cash flow of $126 million, which is 13% of revenue.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Oct-2024): ATE Energy boosts green energy & marine projects in PH.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • ATE Energy is leading green energy and marine projects in the Philippines to support sustainability efforts and protect the environment. Taiwan is seeking to import green energy from the Philippines to meet its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
  • The US faces challenges in expanding nuclear power as part of its efforts to reach net-zero emissions targets. Japan and Taiwan are teaming up to produce the Lean3 EV, promising a compact design and high efficiency for urban areas.
  • The new iPad mini features advanced Apple Intelligence technology with four major upgrades for top-tier performance and functionality. Joo-Sun Choi is returning to Samsung’s DS division after a successful term as SDC president. Taiwan is focusing on low-carbon power to drive industrial growth, while ESL adoption is on the rise with retailers like Simple Mart Taiwan and Walmart leading the way in a retail revolution for lower prices.

Micron Technology Inc.: Tackling The Shifts in Customer Demand & Evolving Market Dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron Technology’s fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings call underscores a period of noteworthy developments and strategic pivots, reflecting both positives and challenges that face the company.
  • The call, led by Sumit Sadana and other executives, provided insights into various aspects including demand trends, inventory levels, operational execution, and financial outlook which are critical for understanding Micron’s trajectory and market dynamics.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Paychex Inc.: These Are The 4 Biggest Reasons For Our Pessimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Paychex, a leading provider of payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing solutions for small-to-medium sized businesses, commenced fiscal year 2025 with a quarter that both showcased resilience and drew attention to some of the challenges the company faces.
  • During the earnings call for the first quarter ended August 31, 2024, which featured CEO John Gibson and CFO Bob Schrader, the company outlined various facets of its performance and forward-looking statements.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

RingCentral Inc.: Strategic Global Service Provider Partnerships

By Baptista Research

  • RingCentral’s performance in the second quarter of 2024 has displayed robust financial health and an evolving strategic direction, revealing both strengths and potential areas of concern.
  • The company reported a 10% year over-year increase in total revenue amounting to $593 million, surpassing its guided range.
  • This growth appears primarily driven by the success of its new products, notably RingCX, which is signaling strong market acceptance.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Financials: K Bank, Lippo Karawaci, S&P/ASX 200, Bangkok Bank Public and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • K-Bank’s IPO Cancellation: What Led to This Move and Plan for a Comeback
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci
  • Weekly Wrap – 18 Oct 2024
  • EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks
  • Bangkok Bank – BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

K-Bank’s IPO Cancellation: What Led to This Move and Plan for a Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • The institutional demand forecasts were much worse than expected, leading to the company’s blunt admission in the latest filing that the book-building flopped, prompting them to cancel the IPO.
  • Bankers NH and KB suggested an offering price below 8,500 KRW, but pre-IPO backers like Bain Capital and MBK strongly opposed, unhappy with shrinking proceeds, pushing for cancellation.
  • K-Bank plans to regroup and adjust the heavy 50% secondary share portion to retry the IPO in six months before their prelim review window expires.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Weekly Wrap – 18 Oct 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Longfor Properties
  3. Anton Oilfield
  4. Adani Green Energy
  5. Reliance Industries

and more…

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

By Nico Rosti

  • This week the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
  • In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
  • According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.

Bangkok Bank – BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
  • The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
  • The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing & commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: TI Fluid Systems , Tegna Inc, Dana , Kontoor Brands , Lands’ End Inc, Levi Strauss & Co, McCormick & Company, Meritage Homes, Carmax Inc, Wendy’s Co/The and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal
  • TEGNA Inc.: Leveraging Advanced Advertising Platforms & Focus on Premion! – Major Drivers
  • Dana Inc. – The Latest Acquisition Target Heating Up Wall Street!
  • Kontoor Brands Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Digital & D2C Platforms Catalyze Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers
  • LE: Snapping the Catalog; Busting Out for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • Levi Strauss & Co.: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) & Digital Initiatives & Other Major Drivers
  • McCormick & Company: Dealing With Geographical Market Adaptations and Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • Meritage Homes Corporation: Refined Incentive & Pricing Structures in Response to Economic Conditions & Major Drivers
  • CarMax Inc.: Enhanced Digital & Omni-channel Capabilities & Other Major Drivers
  • The Wendy’s Company: The Story Of International Expansion & Digital & Innovation Focus! – Major Drivers

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)’s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
  • Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
  • 200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.

TEGNA Inc.: Leveraging Advanced Advertising Platforms & Focus on Premion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TEGNA Inc. reported their Q2 2024 financial results, reflecting a mix of challenges and opportunities which present a balanced view for potential investors.
  • In this earnings review, a detailed assessment of the company’s performance and strategic initiatives provides insights into its emerging trends and operational focus.
  • During the quarter, TEGNA noted a decline in total company revenue compared to the previous year, which primarily stemmed from decreases in subscriber counts and national advertising revenues.

Dana Inc. – The Latest Acquisition Target Heating Up Wall Street!

By Baptista Research

  • In a notable development, Dana Incorporated (NYSE:DAN) has recently emerged as a potential acquisition target, sparking rumors across Wall Street.
  • The company’s stock rose by 0.5%, following reports of takeover interest as mentioned in a Betaville “uncooked” alert.
  • The timing of this speculation coincides with a strong earnings performance for Q2 2024, where Dana posted $2.7 billion in sales and a solid $244 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Kontoor Brands Inc.: Will Its Expansion into Digital & D2C Platforms Catalyze Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kontoor Brands, in its Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, presented a mixed but slightly optimistic view of its current position and trajectory amidst diverse market challenges.
  • The President, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of Kontoor Brands, Scott Baxter, emphasized strategic growth, brand developments, and consumer engagement that have contributed positively to the company’s performance.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

LE: Snapping the Catalog; Busting Out for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End after reviewing the October catalog.
  • We believe, with the onset of the crucial outerwear period, Lands’ End is well-prepared to highlight their increased focused on technology, new products and exciting fashion-driven items to increase the customer base, and register lower discounting levels and even higher overall returns.
  • Further, we believe management has become increasingly nimble in flowing more wear now items and capturing further share of wallet.

Levi Strauss & Co.: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) & Digital Initiatives & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss & Company recently conducted their third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call, unveiling results that presented a mixed picture with both strengths and areas for improvement.
  • During the quarter, the company saw a net revenue increase of 2% in constant currency and 3% when adjusting for the exit from the Denizen business.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a 5% increase in the Levi’s brand globally, marking its best quarterly growth in two years.

McCormick & Company: Dealing With Geographical Market Adaptations and Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • McCormick & Company, Incorporated recently discussed its third-quarter financial results, reflecting an environment of both challenges and moderate successes.
  • Despite a demanding global market, the company managed to align its performance with expectations due to strategic investments and effective management of resources.
  • However, there were several fluctuations in different segments and regions that highlight the mixed nature of the current financial landscape for the company.

Meritage Homes Corporation: Refined Incentive & Pricing Structures in Response to Economic Conditions & Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes’ second quarter of 2024 financial statement depicted a mixed landscape of operational achievements and challenges.
  • The company showcased robust financial results, achieving a notable boost in sales, gross margin expansion, and optimized operational efficiency, marking its continued focus on not just maintaining but also strategically expanding its market footprint targeted primarily towards the entry-level housing segment.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

CarMax Inc.: Enhanced Digital & Omni-channel Capabilities & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CarMax Inc. recently reported its earnings for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025.
  • The company reported total sales of $7 billion, a slight 1% decline year-over-year, reflecting a drop in retail and wholesale prices, although this was partly offset by increased retail volume.
  • Despite the tensions in the auto loan market affecting the industry, CarMax managed to post several positives.

The Wendy’s Company: The Story Of International Expansion & Digital & Innovation Focus! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Wendy’s Company reported a mixed second quarter earnings highlighted by continued global system-wide and same-restaurant sales growth, but faced challenges related to rising labor costs and operational increases which pressured margins and resulted in a downward adjustment of full-year sales growth expectations.
  • In the second quarter, The Wendy’s Company showcased a 2.6% increase in global system-wide sales and a 0.8% rise in same-restaurant sales.
  • The U.S. segment maintained its competitive position within the quick service restaurant (QSR) burger category, with a particularly strong performance in the breakfast and late-night dayparts which are pivotal growth avenues for the company.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Intuitive Surgical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Q3 Results Beat Expectations; Procedure Growth Forecast Revised Upward

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

By Arun George

  • Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
  • This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
  • Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Q3 Results Beat Expectations; Procedure Growth Forecast Revised Upward

By Tina Banerjee

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) posted 3Q24 result, with revenue, procedure volume growth, system placement, and EPS beating estimates. Accelerating rollout of da Vinci 5 remains one of the growth engines.
  • During 3Q24, Intuitive placed 110 da Vinci 5 systems, up from 70 in Q2 and eight in Q1. da Vinci 5 system has been used in more than 12,000 procedures.
  • Intuitive has raised the low end of the procedure growth guidance range from 15.5% to 16.0% and expects full year 2024 procedure growth within a range of 16% and 17%.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Adani Enterprises, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Alinco Inc, FuelCell Energy , Kbr Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying
  • Align Partners Goes Activist on Doosan Bobcat
  • Alinco Inc (5933 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update
  • FuelCell Energy Inc.: Expansion in South Korean Market
  • KBR Inc.: Can It Capitalize On Government & Defense Sector Opportunities? – Major Drivers

Thematic Report : Investment Opportunities in Indian Markets Led by Promoter Buying

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • In the overheated Indian markets where selling spree by promoters is going at record pace.
  • We identified certain interesting companies where promoters are buying giving confidence in their business
  • We further delve into the thesis and key triggers for these companies

Align Partners Goes Activist on Doosan Bobcat

By Douglas Kim

  • On 18 October, a local activist fund Align Partners Asset Management started its “corporate activism” on Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
  • Align Partners sent a shareholder proposal letter requesting a significant increase in the shareholder return rate, including dividends and selling off non-core assets. 
  • We believe that Align Partners’ corporate activism on Doosan Bobcat is likely to have a positive impact on Doosan Bobcat’s share price.

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY03/25, revenue increased 5.4% YoY to JPY30.8bn, while operating profit declined 3.9% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
  • Segment profit for scaffolding equipment rentals grew 0.4% YoY to JPY1.3bn, with revenue up 15.1% YoY to JPY12.5bn.
  • Electronic Equipment segment revenue fell 10.0% YoY to JPY2.4bn, resulting in a segment loss of JPY326mn.

FuelCell Energy Inc.: Expansion in South Korean Market

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy, in its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, demonstrated a mixed financial performance amid evolving market conditions and significant strategic initiatives aimed at boosting its long-term growth trajectory.
  • The company reported quarterly revenues of $23.7 million, a slight decrease from the $25.5 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
  • This decline primarily resulted from a lack of module replacements in the current period, which had buoyed revenue in the prior year.

KBR Inc.: Can It Capitalize On Government & Defense Sector Opportunities? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KBR’s Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings detailed the company’s financial and operational milestones for the period, along with future projections and strategic plans.
  • One of the notable positives highlighted includes the increase in revenue, up by 6% year-on-year, which reflects a solid operational performance across all the business units.
  • The adjusted EBITDA also saw an impressive rise by 13%, illustrating effectiveness in managing profitability.

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Oct 18
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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Insurance Australia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Insurance Australia, Computershare, Goodman

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Insurance Australia, Computershare, Goodman

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Computershare, Goodman, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.

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