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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal
  • Kum Yang: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 450 Billion Won
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art

By David Blennerhassett

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest

By Arun George

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) entered a trading halt under the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg suggests Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)’s stake is attracting preliminary interest from PE.
  • Alibaba built its 78.70% stake through two purchases in 2017 (HK$6.50) and 2021 (HK$8.10). An exit would align with the strategy to focus on the core business segments. 
  • The recent Miniso-Yonghui transaction could have prompted PE to act. An offer at book value would imply HK$2.50, a 40% premium to the last close price. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

By David Blennerhassett

Kum Yang: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 450 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Kum Yang announced a rights offering capital raise of 450 billion won which will be used for facility investments and debt repayment. 
  • The estimated rights offering price is 38,950 won, which is 31% lower than current price (56,500 won). 
  • We remain negative on Kum Yang. Despite the sharply lower rights offering price relative to current price, we would avoid the rights offering. 

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100 but there are two more months to the base date and our expectations can change until then.

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: NWD 17 HK:  Kitchen Sink Results and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • NWD 17 HK:  Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle
  • PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers
  • ESDS Software Solution- Forensic Analysis
  • BlackBerry Limited: Strategic Business Growth & Focus on IoT and Cybersecurity Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE
  • Appian Corporation: Dealing With Geographic Expansion Challenges & Other Roadblocks! – Major Drivers
  • PowerSchool Holdings: AI Integration and PowerBuddy Platform Can Really Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Focus on Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Initiatives & Leveraging Content Across Platforms To Drive Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers
  • Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers

NWD 17 HK:  Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle

By Jacob Cheng

  • NWD reported HKD20bn loss attributable to shareholders.  There is no dividend declared.  However, we view this as kitchen sink.  The stock rallied 22% on Friday
  • CEO Adrian Cheng stepped down and COO Eric Ma, former Secretary for Development for HK, is the new CEO.  This represents a shift from family business to professional management
  • As Fed initiated new rate cut cycle, NWD will benefit most given high gearing.  With macro backdrop in U.S. and China, NWD is the Best stock to buy now

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. 
  • The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
  • CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. 

ESDS Software Solution- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • In this insight, we briefly study forensics of Esds Software Solution (1603279D IN) , currently unlisted, had tried to float an IPO back in 2021 but it was later withdrawn.
  • The company offers managed cloud service and end to end multi-cloud requirements provider. Revenue growth has been moderate while margin erosion has been a concerning issue for the company.
  • Key forensic takeaways include nature of contingent liabilities, inability to generate cash and liquidity woes, quality of receivables, etc. 

BlackBerry Limited: Strategic Business Growth & Focus on IoT and Cybersecurity Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackBerry, a software company specializing in security software and services, recently discussed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
  • The company remains committed to its strategy, focusing on enhancing its Internet of Things (IoT) and cybersecurity divisions and driving cost efficiencies.
  • Despite facing industry headwinds and the challenge of elongated sales cycles, BlackBerry’s performance this quarter reflects a robust operational momentum and strategic execution.

Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE

By Caixin Global

  • Uber Technologies Inc. has entered into a partnership with Chinese autonomous driving startup WeRide Corp. to promote self-driving taxis on Uber’s global platform, with the first deployment set to take place in Abu Dhabi by the end of the year, the two companies said Wednesday.
  • Founded in 2017, WeRide develops autonomous driving technology and is testing or deploying it commercially in 30 cities in seven countries.

  • In July 2023, the company was granted the United Arab Emirates’ first and only national license for self-driving vehicles, enabling it to test and operate its autonomous vehicles on public roads across the entire country.

Appian Corporation: Dealing With Geographic Expansion Challenges & Other Roadblocks! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Analyzing Appian Corporation’s Second Quarter 2024 financial results reveals a company actively balancing growth ambitions with operational efficiencies.
  • The financial performance of Appian Corporation this quarter exhibits significant adherence to its core growth strategies while maintaining a prudent eye towards profitability.
  • For the quarter, Appian reported a robust year-over-year revenue increase, with total revenue rising 15% to $146.5 million.

PowerSchool Holdings: AI Integration and PowerBuddy Platform Can Really Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PowerSchool has reported its first quarter 2024 earnings with positive results, continuing its momentum with a strong performance across key financial metrics.
  • The company reported a total revenue of $185 million, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
  • This was driven predominantly by subscription and support revenues, which grew 18% year-over-year to $167 million and constituted 90% of the total revenue.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Focus on Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Initiatives & Leveraging Content Across Platforms To Drive Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Bros. Discovery recently held its Q2 earnings call for 2024, an event of crucial importance for investors and industry observers alike.
  • The call encapsulated various dimensions of the business’s performance and strategic direction, touching on both high-performing areas and ongoing challenges.
  • A primary highlight from the call was the robust performance of Warner Bros. Discovery’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, notably in the streaming realm.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arthur J.
  • Gallagher & Co. reported strong financial performance for Q2 2024, underpinned by significant growth in revenue and earnings.
  • The firm’s combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments saw a 14% increase in revenue and a 7.7% rise in organic growth, with an adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of 102 basis points to 31.4%.

Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Conagra Brands, in their Q4 and Fiscal Year 2024 earnings, presented a mixed set of results reflecting a transitional phase in consumer purchasing behavior and pricing adaptation.
  • CEO Sean Connolly emphasized the gradual normalization of the operating environment as consumers adjust to new price benchmarks, a process he described as ongoing rather than immediate.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Macro: Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park
  • U.S. August Personal Income and Spending – Core PCE Prices Looking Subdued in Q3

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans
  • New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets

U.S. August Personal Income and Spending – Core PCE Prices Looking Subdued in Q3

By Alex Ng

  • August’s PCE price data, up 0.1% both overall and core (0.09% and 0.13% respectively before rounding) shows the core rate softer than expected, and well below the 0.3% core CPI.
  • Personal income and spending gains 0.2% and are both on the low side of expectations but a narrower August advance goods trade deficit of $94.3bn from $102.8bn leaves positive.
  • Yr/Yr PCE prices fell to 2.2% from 2.5%, weaker than expected, though the core rate at 2.7% from 2.6% is slightly stronger than expected.

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Kum Yang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Kumyang’s Capital Raise Drop: Breaking It Down from an Arb Trading Play
  • Kum Yang: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 450 Billion Won

Kumyang’s Capital Raise Drop: Breaking It Down from an Arb Trading Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kumyang’s major shareholders are backing the capital raise, committing ₩160B of the ₩450B total. We’re also likely to see some robust price support for the stock rights in early phases.
  • Institutional investors still make up about 10% of the SO, with around 8% being active players. These guys could easily start dumping stock rights in bulk.
  • Retail holds nearly 50% of the SO, increasing volatility and boosting chances for arb spreads. Kumyang’s stock futures have solid liquidity, making it a prime arb trading setup.

Kum Yang: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 450 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Kum Yang announced a rights offering capital raise of 450 billion won which will be used for facility investments and debt repayment. 
  • The estimated rights offering price is 38,950 won, which is 31% lower than current price (56,500 won). 
  • We remain negative on Kum Yang. Despite the sharply lower rights offering price relative to current price, we would avoid the rights offering. 

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. 
  • The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
  • CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. 

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Singapore: DFI Retail Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

By David Blennerhassett

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief United States: Uber Technologies , Appian Corp, Conagra Foods, International Game Technology Ordinary Shares, Mirati Therapeutics, PowerSchool Holdings , Upstream Bio, Warner Bros Discovery , Arthur J Gallagher & Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE
  • Appian Corporation: Dealing With Geographic Expansion Challenges & Other Roadblocks! – Major Drivers
  • Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers
  • International Game Technology PLC: Enhanced iLottery & International Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Mirati Therapeutics Inc.: Expansion of KRAZATI
  • PowerSchool Holdings: AI Integration and PowerBuddy Platform Can Really Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Focus on Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Initiatives & Leveraging Content Across Platforms To Drive Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers

Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE

By Caixin Global

  • Uber Technologies Inc. has entered into a partnership with Chinese autonomous driving startup WeRide Corp. to promote self-driving taxis on Uber’s global platform, with the first deployment set to take place in Abu Dhabi by the end of the year, the two companies said Wednesday.
  • Founded in 2017, WeRide develops autonomous driving technology and is testing or deploying it commercially in 30 cities in seven countries.

  • In July 2023, the company was granted the United Arab Emirates’ first and only national license for self-driving vehicles, enabling it to test and operate its autonomous vehicles on public roads across the entire country.

Appian Corporation: Dealing With Geographic Expansion Challenges & Other Roadblocks! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Analyzing Appian Corporation’s Second Quarter 2024 financial results reveals a company actively balancing growth ambitions with operational efficiencies.
  • The financial performance of Appian Corporation this quarter exhibits significant adherence to its core growth strategies while maintaining a prudent eye towards profitability.
  • For the quarter, Appian reported a robust year-over-year revenue increase, with total revenue rising 15% to $146.5 million.

Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Conagra Brands, in their Q4 and Fiscal Year 2024 earnings, presented a mixed set of results reflecting a transitional phase in consumer purchasing behavior and pricing adaptation.
  • CEO Sean Connolly emphasized the gradual normalization of the operating environment as consumers adjust to new price benchmarks, a process he described as ongoing rather than immediate.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

International Game Technology PLC: Enhanced iLottery & International Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • International Game Technology (IGT) has reported its Q2 2024 earnings, showing strong performance in both revenue and operational metrics.
  • In its second quarter, IGT generated revenue of $1.05 billion, maintaining levels similar to the prior year, and achieved an operating income of $230 million.
  • When excluding one-time separation and divestiture costs of $26 million, the operating income margin impressively improved by 40 basis points to 24.4%.

Mirati Therapeutics Inc.: Expansion of KRAZATI

By Baptista Research

  • Mirati Therapeutics reported its second quarter 2023 earnings and had a decent performance.
  • During this period, Mirati launched KRAZATI, reflecting a significant milestone as it transitioned to a commercial-stage company under the guidance of then CEO, David Meek.
  • However, in a noteworthy change announced during the call, Dr. Chuck Baum has taken on the role of interim CEO, following Meek’s departure.

PowerSchool Holdings: AI Integration and PowerBuddy Platform Can Really Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PowerSchool has reported its first quarter 2024 earnings with positive results, continuing its momentum with a strong performance across key financial metrics.
  • The company reported a total revenue of $185 million, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
  • This was driven predominantly by subscription and support revenues, which grew 18% year-over-year to $167 million and constituted 90% of the total revenue.

Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Upstream Bio, a biotech company focused on developing therapeutics that address severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD, will price its IPO in October.
  • Upstream Bio has raised ~$400M to date. Their last round was a $200M Series B led by private equity firm Enavate Sciences and Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners.
  • My DCF analysis suggests that Upstream Bio’s core U.S. business (ex. COPD) may be worth ~$1.8B. The severe asthma and CRSwNP markets represent a potential $10B+ opportunity.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Focus on Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Initiatives & Leveraging Content Across Platforms To Drive Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Bros. Discovery recently held its Q2 earnings call for 2024, an event of crucial importance for investors and industry observers alike.
  • The call encapsulated various dimensions of the business’s performance and strategic direction, touching on both high-performing areas and ongoing challenges.
  • A primary highlight from the call was the robust performance of Warner Bros. Discovery’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, notably in the streaming realm.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arthur J.
  • Gallagher & Co. reported strong financial performance for Q2 2024, underpinned by significant growth in revenue and earnings.
  • The firm’s combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments saw a 14% increase in revenue and a 7.7% rise in organic growth, with an adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of 102 basis points to 31.4%.

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief China: New World Development, Sun Art Retail, China Southern Airlines and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • NWD 17 HK:  Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker: Solid Outbound & Domestic Numbers in August | Cut Trip.com to HOLD

NWD 17 HK:  Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle

By Jacob Cheng

  • NWD reported HKD20bn loss attributable to shareholders.  There is no dividend declared.  However, we view this as kitchen sink.  The stock rallied 22% on Friday
  • CEO Adrian Cheng stepped down and COO Eric Ma, former Secretary for Development for HK, is the new CEO.  This represents a shift from family business to professional management
  • As Fed initiated new rate cut cycle, NWD will benefit most given high gearing.  With macro backdrop in U.S. and China, NWD is the Best stock to buy now

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest

By Arun George

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) entered a trading halt under the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg suggests Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)’s stake is attracting preliminary interest from PE.
  • Alibaba built its 78.70% stake through two purchases in 2017 (HK$6.50) and 2021 (HK$8.10). An exit would align with the strategy to focus on the core business segments. 
  • The recent Miniso-Yonghui transaction could have prompted PE to act. An offer at book value would imply HK$2.50, a 40% premium to the last close price. 

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker: Solid Outbound & Domestic Numbers in August | Cut Trip.com to HOLD

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Outbound & domestic travel activity continued to recover nicely in August
  • Initial reports suggest Mid-Autumn Festival travel activity was solid, too
  • After recent surge, we’ve cut Trip.com to HOLD; check out airlines instead

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief India: Esds Software Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • ESDS Software Solution- Forensic Analysis

ESDS Software Solution- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • In this insight, we briefly study forensics of Esds Software Solution (1603279D IN) , currently unlisted, had tried to float an IPO back in 2021 but it was later withdrawn.
  • The company offers managed cloud service and end to end multi-cloud requirements provider. Revenue growth has been moderate while margin erosion has been a concerning issue for the company.
  • Key forensic takeaways include nature of contingent liabilities, inability to generate cash and liquidity woes, quality of receivables, etc. 

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Sep 29
0

Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art
  • Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Dyna Mac, Platinum Asset, Fuji Soft, JTower, Arvida, Korea Zinc, Sun Art

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol

By Arun George

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