Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Analyzing Appian Corporation’s Second Quarter 2024 financial results reveals a company actively balancing growth ambitions with operational efficiencies.
The financial performance of Appian Corporation this quarter exhibits significant adherence to its core growth strategies while maintaining a prudent eye towards profitability.
For the quarter, Appian reported a robust year-over-year revenue increase, with total revenue rising 15% to $146.5 million.

BlackBerry Limited: Strategic Business Growth & Focus on IoT and Cybersecurity Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Major Drivers

BlackBerry, a software company specializing in security software and services, recently discussed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
The company remains committed to its strategy, focusing on enhancing its Internet of Things (IoT) and cybersecurity divisions and driving cost efficiencies.
Despite facing industry headwinds and the challenge of elongated sales cycles, BlackBerry’s performance this quarter reflects a robust operational momentum and strategic execution.

PowerSchool Holdings: AI Integration and PowerBuddy Platform Can Really Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

PowerSchool has reported its first quarter 2024 earnings with positive results, continuing its momentum with a strong performance across key financial metrics.
The company reported a total revenue of $185 million, marking a 16% year-over-year increase.
This was driven predominantly by subscription and support revenues, which grew 18% year-over-year to $167 million and constituted 90% of the total revenue.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Focus on Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Initiatives & Leveraging Content Across Platforms To Drive Growth! – Major Drivers

Warner Bros. Discovery recently held its Q2 earnings call for 2024, an event of crucial importance for investors and industry observers alike.
The call encapsulated various dimensions of the business’s performance and strategic direction, touching on both high-performing areas and ongoing challenges.
A primary highlight from the call was the robust performance of Warner Bros. Discovery’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, notably in the streaming realm.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Industrials: Evergreen Marine Corp, Uber Technologies , Tokyo Metro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way
Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE
Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.

Uber to Partner With China’s WeRide for Autonomous Vehicles, Beginning in UAE

By Caixin Global

Uber Technologies Inc. has entered into a partnership with Chinese autonomous driving startup WeRide Corp. to promote self-driving taxis on Uber’s global platform, with the first deployment set to take place in Abu Dhabi by the end of the year, the two companies said Wednesday.
Founded in 2017, WeRide develops autonomous driving technology and is testing or deploying it commercially in 30 cities in seven countries.
In July 2023, the company was granted the United Arab Emirates’ first and only national license for self-driving vehicles, enabling it to test and operate its autonomous vehicles on public roads across the entire country.

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Sep) – Tokyo Metro, CR Beverage, K Bank, Fuji Soft, Sun Art, Xingda, Capitol

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), K Bank (279570 KS) and China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), Xingda International (1899 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Consumer: Sun Art Retail, DFI Retail Group Holdings, Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk, International Game Technology Ordinary Shares, Conagra Foods, China Southern Airlines, Bubbles Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest
Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal
PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers
International Game Technology PLC: Enhanced iLottery & International Growth! – Major Drivers
Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker: Solid Outbound & Domestic Numbers in August | Cut Trip.com to HOLD
Bubbles Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): Alibaba’s Stake Draws PE Interest

By Arun George

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) entered a trading halt under the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg suggests Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)’s stake is attracting preliminary interest from PE.
Alibaba built its 78.70% stake through two purchases in 2017 (HK$6.50) and 2021 (HK$8.10). An exit would align with the strategy to focus on the core business segments.
The recent Miniso-Yonghui transaction could have prompted PE to act. An offer at book value would imply HK$2.50, a 40% premium to the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

By David Blennerhassett

Hypermarket reshuffles as JD.com (9618 HK) and DFI Retail (DFI SP) exit Yonghui Superstores (601933 CH); and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) potentially exits Sun Art Retail (6808 HK).
Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion wasn’t the panacea for New World Development (17 HK) and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.
MBK bumps the Tender Offer prices for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) by 13.6% to ₩750,000 and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) by 25% to ₩25,000. What with the Choi’s do?

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana – One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

By Angus Mackintosh

Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria.
The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating.

International Game Technology PLC: Enhanced iLottery & International Growth! – Major Drivers

International Game Technology (IGT) has reported its Q2 2024 earnings, showing strong performance in both revenue and operational metrics.
In its second quarter, IGT generated revenue of $1.05 billion, maintaining levels similar to the prior year, and achieved an operating income of $230 million.
When excluding one-time separation and divestiture costs of $26 million, the operating income margin impressively improved by 40 basis points to 24.4%.

Conagra Brands Inc.: Revamping Marketing Strategies & Focusing On Product Innovation! – Major Drivers

Conagra Brands, in their Q4 and Fiscal Year 2024 earnings, presented a mixed set of results reflecting a transitional phase in consumer purchasing behavior and pricing adaptation.
CEO Sean Connolly emphasized the gradual normalization of the operating environment as consumers adjust to new price benchmarks, a process he described as ongoing rather than immediate.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker: Solid Outbound & Domestic Numbers in August | Cut Trip.com to HOLD

By Daniel Hellberg

Outbound & domestic travel activity continued to recover nicely in August
Initial reports suggest Mid-Autumn Festival travel activity was solid, too
After recent surge, we’ve cut Trip.com to HOLD; check out airlines instead

Bubbles Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Bubbles Group’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores, while the Environmental score is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” but Disclosure is “Weak”.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Health Care: Mirati Therapeutics, Upstream Bio and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Mirati Therapeutics Inc.: Expansion of KRAZATI
Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B

Mirati Therapeutics Inc.: Expansion of KRAZATI

Mirati Therapeutics reported its second quarter 2023 earnings and had a decent performance.
During this period, Mirati launched KRAZATI, reflecting a significant milestone as it transitioned to a commercial-stage company under the guidance of then CEO, David Meek.
However, in a noteworthy change announced during the call, Dr. Chuck Baum has taken on the role of interim CEO, following Meek’s departure.

Upstream Bio Valuation Summary, DCF Analysis Suggests U.S. Business (Ex. COPD) Is Worth ~$1.8B

By Andrei Zakharov

Upstream Bio, a biotech company focused on developing therapeutics that address severe asthma, CRSwNP and COPD, will price its IPO in October.
Upstream Bio has raised ~$400M to date. Their last round was a $200M Series B led by private equity firm Enavate Sciences and Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners.
My DCF analysis suggests that Upstream Bio’s core U.S. business (ex. COPD) may be worth ~$1.8B. The severe asthma and CRSwNP markets represent a potential $10B+ opportunity.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Arthur J Gallagher & Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

NWD 17 HK: Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers

NWD 17 HK: Kitchen Sink Results, Overhang Removed, the BEST Stock to BUY in New Rate Cut Cycle

By Jacob Cheng

NWD reported HKD20bn loss attributable to shareholders. There is no dividend declared. However, we view this as kitchen sink. The stock rallied 22% on Friday
CEO Adrian Cheng stepped down and COO Eric Ma, former Secretary for Development for HK, is the new CEO. This represents a shift from family business to professional management
As Fed initiated new rate cut cycle, NWD will benefit most given high gearing. With macro backdrop in U.S. and China, NWD is the Best stock to buy now

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: Acquisition of Cornerstone Insurance to Strengthen Regional Expertise & Other Major Drivers

Arthur J.
Gallagher & Co. reported strong financial performance for Q2 2024, underpinned by significant growth in revenue and earnings.
The firm’s combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments saw a 14% increase in revenue and a 7.7% rise in organic growth, with an adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of 102 basis points to 31.4%.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 27th): Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 27th): Tencent, Meituan, Sinopec

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 27th): Tencent, Meituan, Sinopec

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 27th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

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Sep 28

Daily Brief ESG: Voyage Care – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Voyage Care – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Governance and Shareholder Return Are Likely to Improve, and Investors Continue to Pay Attention
Constellium – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Guala Closures – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Voyage Care – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Voyage Care’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Weak”.

Governance and Shareholder Return Are Likely to Improve, and Investors Continue to Pay Attention

By Aki Matsumoto

Since the total shares held by Founder Family, trust Banks and FamilyMart exceed 50%, this director appointment proposal will pass unless the shareholders held by the trust banks oppose it.
Challenges will be noted in the function of the nominating committee, which nominated directors with few elements falling under the skills item, and in the disclosure of the skills matrix.
While PPIH’s free cash flow is ample and growth is expected, shareholder returns and governance remain challenges, but with overseas investor equity exceeding 30%, much improvement is expected in future.

Constellium – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Constellium’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores, while the Governance pillar is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

Guala Closures – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Guala Closures’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | China Stimulus; JP Stocks Respond and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Weekly | China Stimulus; JP Stocks Respond
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/JD US/2230CH/600398CH/3690HK/TCOM
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 27/09/2024
[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US/2618 HK/002352 CH/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK

Japan Weekly | China Stimulus; JP Stocks Respond

By Mark Chadwick

U.S. markets remained relatively stable, with major indices flat to up 1% for the week. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield up nearly 10 basis points to 3.8%.
Meanwhile, China, grappling with a property slump and likely to miss its 5% growth target, announced substantial stimulus measures.
Japanese stocks rallied strongly this week, with the benchmark Nikkei index surging 5.6% and the broader Topix index gaining 3.7%.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/JD US/2230CH/600398CH/3690HK/TCOM

By Ying Pan

NTES US: Blizzard’s <Hearthstone> Resumes Operations in China Today with High Player Enthusiasm (+)
BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN: AliExpress to promote new merchant models and faster logistics at Double 11 and Black Friday promotions (+/-/-/-)
BABA US/PDD US/JD US: Taobao/Tmall to offer no extra service fees on “buy-now pay-later” orders during Double 11 (-/-/-)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 27/09/2024

By Auctus Advisors

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Another horizontal well with high flow rate – The fourth horizontal well at Carrizales Notre (CNB HZ-5) has been put on production at a gross oil rate of 2.7 mbbl/d (1.35 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 11%.
This flow rate compares favourably with CNB HZ-4 that was put on production at a gross oil rate of >2.5 mbbl/d (8% water cut).
Overall gross oil production from the three other horizontal wells is ~5.62 mbbl/d (~2.8 mbbl/d net to Arrow) including 2.1 mbbl/d for CNB HZ-4, 1.9 mbbl/d for CNB HZ-3 and 1.6 mbbl/d for CNB HZ-1.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US/2618 HK/002352 CH/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK

By Eric Wen

BEKE US/BZ US/ATAT US/3690 HK/TCOM US:September Politburo Meeting Unusually Discusses Economic Topics, bodes well for catering and tourism consumption, Employment, and Real Estate(+)
2618 HK/002352 CH: JD and Alibaba reconcile, JD Logistics to launch on Taobao and Alipay to launch on JD.com (+/-)
NIO US: NIO Lowers Battery Swap Service Fees to Encourage Frequent Battery Swaps(-)

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Sep 28

Daily Brief ECM: Swiggy IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Swiggy IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance
NTPC Green Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Swiggy IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance

By Devi Subhakesan

Swiggy (1255298D IN) , a popular food and grocery delivery platform in India, plans to launch its much-anticipated IPO in early November.
The company has seen rapid growth in Gross Order Value and revenues, driven by increased food delivery demand and a surge in quick commerce, an on demand grocery delivery service.
The Naspers and Softbank Group (9984 JP) backed company that started operations in 2014 is yet to turn profitable while its close competitor Zomato reported profits in FY2024.

NTPC Green Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IDBI Cap, HDFC, IIFL and Nuvama Wealth.
It is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited. Its portfolio encompasses solar and wind power assets with presence in over six states.
According to CRISIL, it was the largest renewable energy public sector enterprise (excluding hydro) in terms of operating capacity as of June 30, 2024 and power generation in FY24.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy
Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024
Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics
Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024
New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
Europe HY Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics
Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics
New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

China Hongqiao
Continuum Green Energy

Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

and more…

Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics

The Asia Trade Book for September 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.

Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

and more…

New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

New World Development’s (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company’s profit warning earlier in September. We expect the company’s revenue and EBITDA to improve in FY 2024-25, supported by new project launches in Hong Kong as well as contributions from new K11 commercial assets in Hong Kong and Mainland China.

While NWD has continued to reduce net debt, leverage weakened on account of the weaker earnings and smaller asset base (due to disposals). Cash/ST Debt is inadequate, though we believe the company’s liquidity is manageable due to its continued access to financing. In particular, we note positively NWD’s receipt of a HKD 1 bn unsecured loan, as well as its ability to tap the USD bond market in August 2024.

The resignation of Adrian Cheng as NWD’s CEO (as well as from the Boards of NWD’s sister companies) is surprising in our view, though we believe the impact is credit neutral.

We move to “Buy” from “Hold” on the NWDEVL notes, as we view the yields as attractive.

Europe HY Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.

New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics