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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last?
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 20/09/2024


Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last?

By William Keating

  • Global semiconductor sales for the month of July 2024 amounted to $51.3 billion, representing an increase of 18.7% increase YoY and a 2.7% increase MoM
  • The July revenue number was the second highest monthly semiconductor revenue ever recorded, the highest being $51.7 billion in May 2022
  • Increasing memory prices along with modest recoveries in both PC and Smartphone unit shipments will continue to drive semi sales higher through EOY 2024.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 20/09/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX CN)C; Target price A$0.75 per share: Production boost at Anshof in October – The ANS-2A sidetrack well has encountered a 6.5 m net vertical oil column in high quality Eocene-aged sandstone reservoir.
  • The reservoir quality encountered at ANS-2A is consistent with ANS-2 (porosity and permeability ~20% higher than at ANS-3).
  • The oil-water contact was encountered very close to the top of the water wet reservoir encountered at ANS-2.

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Daily Brief ECM: Ather Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Ather Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Ather Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by HSBC, Nomura, JM Fin and Axis.
  • Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
  • According to CRISIL, Ather was the third largest player by volume of E2W sales in FY24.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lippo Karawaci – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lippo Karawaci – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics


Lippo Karawaci – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lippo Karawaci’s (LPKR) H1/24 results were robust in our view, with growth in all business segments pro forma for the deconsolidation of Siloam International Hospital (SILO). The new strategy and continued sell-down of SILO was a surprise. That said, the sales were carried out as SILO shares hit an all-time high, and at a very high valuation (PE ratio of almost 40x). The resulting cash proceeds and debt reduction are credit positive, and improved LPKR’s credit profile. If investment in listed associates are treated as cash, the company would have a large net cash position.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fuji Soft (9749) – As Bain Prepares to Go Higher and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – As Bain Prepares to Go Higher, KKR Goes Lower
  • Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) Also Now Trading Through Terms
  • Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): IPO Listing & Fast-Entry Approved
  • Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?
  • Brookfield/Grifols: Recap and Analysis of Latest Developments
  • EQD | HSI September Rally: What’s Next?


Fuji Soft (9749) – As Bain Prepares to Go Higher, KKR Goes Lower

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, KKR amended its plans to take over Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) by creating a Two-Tender Scheme, effectively lowering the threshold for eventual success through clearly coercive tactics.
  • 3D (23.46%) and Farallon (9.22%) had already tendered. Contractual terms make it difficult (not impossible) to withdraw. Assuming it goes through, KKR has 32.68%, quasi-negative control. 
  • This revised structure is clearly abusive of minorities and NOT the deal Fuji Soft signed. This should cause Fuji Soft to Change their Opinion. Shareholder (and Bain) Pressure would help.

Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) Also Now Trading Through Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 13th September, MBK joined Young Poong (000670 KS) in seeking control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) via Partial Tender Offers for KZ and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS).
  • This situation has been canvassed by analysts here at Smartkarma; with increasing expectation the Choi family makes a counterbid.
  • This insight analyses the fair value of YPP. No matter how you slice it, the Offer Price is punchy. Perhaps not punchier enough.

Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss in detail MBK’s four major concerns on the management of Korea Zinc. 
  • We believe that MBK has legitimate concerns on especially the three factors including poor investments, deteriorating profitability, and increase in equity capital/disposal of treasury shares. 
  • If and when the 2 trillion won+ is raised, then it could lead to another tender offer and the four concerns highlighted in this insight become much more important.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): IPO Listing & Fast-Entry Approved

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Tokyo Metro (TKYMETRO JP) is scheduled to go public on 23 October 2024 with an IPO valuation of ~$4.4bn and a float market cap of ~$2.2bn.
  • Fast-Entry for the one Global Index is expected at the close of 29 October 2024 with forecasted demand of ~17.4m shares and ~$133m.
  • Quarterly inclusion at the May 2025 review has a higher probability with a slight price rally or an elevated IPO offering price. Forecasted demand is ~23.2m shares and ~$177m.

Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Jeisys Medical’s getting booted from the KOSDAQ 150, and HLB Therapeutics is stepping in as the new addition. This change will officially hit the book on Wednesday, September 25.
  • HLB Therapeutics, with a ₩0.70T market cap and 87% float, is set for a 0.51% weight in KOSDAQ 150, triggering over 2 million shares in passive buying: 3.26x 30-day ADTV.
  • With today’s after-hours volume spike in HLB Therapeutics, we’re likely to see some price action from early movers spilling into Monday’s open, similar to what we saw with Webzen.

Brookfield/Grifols: Recap and Analysis of Latest Developments

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since Brookfield’s July 8 takeover interest for Grifols was announced, the situation has become complicated, with unclear pricing, funding challenges, and uncertainty about whether an offer will materialize or when.
  • Grifols operates in a consolidated plasma-derived therapies market with high entry barriers, and its current valuation of 8.6x NTM EBITDAe significantly undervalues it compared to CSL’s 19.2x.
  • B shares closed on September 20 in Madrid at a 17.3% discount to A shares. Paying this spread would be my favored approach to gain exposure to a potential offer.

EQD | HSI September Rally: What’s Next?

By Nico Rosti

  • We continue our coverage of the Hang Seng Index : in our previous insight we theorized a continuation of the rally in September.
  • So far the index is following the path outlined (pullback, then rally). What is going to happen in the next few weeks, if September closes up?
  • Broadly speaking we see a potential continuation of the rally in October, but there may be some resistance in the short-term.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: What’s Missing from Lotus’s Study? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s Missing from Lotus’s Study?
  • Ola Electric’s Negative Noise. Maruti Suzuki’s Electric Plans: India EV Update
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)
  • Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – Full Report
  • The Middleby Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Strengthened Dealer Channel Relationships & Other Major Drivers
  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Conditional Approval for First Drug; Still a Long Way to Go
  • Tetra Tech Inc.- A Tale Of International Market Expansion and Diversification! – Major Drivers
  • Robert Half International Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Geographic Realignment and Global Growth Efforts! – Major Drivers
  • Geo Holdings (2681 Jp) – Q1 FY3/25 Results Update
  • FTI Consulting Inc. – Enhancement of Technology and Economic Consulting Services


What’s Missing from Lotus’s Study?

By Money of Mine

  • Lotus released a scope and study for the Little Cane project in Botswana
  • The project hosts a low grade resource with 71% inferred
  • The study includes three scenarios for production and focuses on reducing the need for drill and blast operations, potentially using drag lines for waste removal.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ola Electric’s Negative Noise. Maruti Suzuki’s Electric Plans: India EV Update

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) reportedly faces challenges with poor product service, leading to dissatisfied customers. This underscores the urgency to improve its service infrastructure and restore brand trust.
  • The Indian electric two-wheeler sector saw weak sales in August, following a robust July, with Ola experiencing a sharp decline in monthly volumes and a loss of market share.
  • Meanwhile, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)  is gearing up for a January 2025 EV launch and is preparing to establish a 25,000-unit charging infrastructure in advance.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

By David Mudd


Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – Full Report

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Japan System Techniques Co., Ltd. (hereafter, JAST or the Company) is an independent system integrator that celebrated its 50th anniversary in March 2023.
  • The Company develops systems for customers across a wide range of industries in a variety of fields, including finance, manufacturing, distribution, services, public services, telecommunications, transportation, and science and technology.
  • It also offers four in-house JAST branded services, including the GAKUEN series of strategic university management systems for the education industry as well as the BankNeo integrated information system for financial institutions. 

The Middleby Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Strengthened Dealer Channel Relationships & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Middleby Corporation, during their Second Quarter 2024 earnings call, presented a mixed scenario reflecting both strengths in strategic growth areas and the overarching pressure from macroeconomic conditions.
  • The discussion, led by CEO Timothy FitzGerald and supported by executives including CFO Bryan Mittelman and Chief Technology and Operations Officer James Pool, provided insights into various segments of the company’s operations.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Conditional Approval for First Drug; Still a Long Way to Go

By Tina Banerjee

  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP) received conditional and time-limited marketing approval for Akuugo suspension for intracranial implantation in Japan, for improving chronic motor paralysis resulting from traumatic brain injury.
  • The company will run two or so rounds of commercial production to accumulate inventories in preparation for launch. The earliest possible timing for shipment is assumed to be Q1FY26.
  • SanBio has a cash runway through H1FY26. However, operating expenses will decrease and Akuugo will start generating revenue by H1FY26, thereby providing some more cushion to cash runway.

Tetra Tech Inc.- A Tale Of International Market Expansion and Diversification! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tetra Tech’s third quarter earnings for fiscal year 2024 presented a robust picture of the company’s financial health and operational achievements.
  • The company reported a significant increase in net revenue, up 12% reaching $1.11 billion, setting a record for any quarter in the company’s history.
  • Additionally, Tetra Tech marked a substantial EBITDA growth of 32% to $129 million, evidencing a stronger margin improvement relative to revenue growth.

Robert Half International Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Geographic Realignment and Global Growth Efforts! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Robert Half, a global provider of specialized staffing and consulting services, reported its second quarter 2024 earnings, showcasing a blend of strengths and challenges within its business operations.
  • The company reported consolidated revenues of $1.473 billion, reflecting a 10% decrease from the previous year on both reported and adjusted bases.
  • This decline aligns with broader industry trends, where client and candidate caution is being observed amid macroeconomic uncertainties and interest rate concerns.

Geo Holdings (2681 Jp) – Q1 FY3/25 Results Update

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1 FY3/25 earnings look negative at first glance, with both sales and operating profit falling. However, the details show strong demand for GEO HOLDINGS’ core second-hand fashion business and smartphone sales, helping gross profit increase.
  • The key earnings drivers were a fall in sales (-6.2% YoY to ¥100.15bn) due to difficult annual comps from new games sales.
  • However, GEO HOLDINGS’ core second-hand fashion business and smartphones enjoyed robust demand, thanks to new store openings at home and overseas.

FTI Consulting Inc. – Enhancement of Technology and Economic Consulting Services

By Baptista Research

  • FTI Consulting’s latest earnings for the second quarter of 2024 reflect a period of robust performance and expansion.
  • The company reported an impressive revenue growth of 12%, predominantly attributed to organic sources, and a notable increase in adjusted EBITDA by 27% year-over-year.
  • While the quarter saw certain one time factors influencing the results, such as a lower-than-expected tax rate, the company’s management highlighted a strong operational performance across most of its operating segments and geographies.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #44 – Ethereum Will Shine Again and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #44 – Ethereum Will Shine Again


Crypto Moves #44 – Ethereum Will Shine Again

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Since the Ethereum merge on September 15, 2022, Ethereum has dropped 48% compared to Bitcoin.
  • This Sunday marked the two-year anniversary of the Ethereum merge, during which it switched from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake.
  • As part of this transition, Ethereum’s issuance of new Ether was sharply reduced from 4% to less than 1% annually.

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Daily Brief Macro: EM Watch: Time to play the long end of the Chinese yield curve? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Watch: Time to play the long end of the Chinese yield curve?
  • EV War Hots Up; China Firms Branch Out To Outside Countries
  • CX Daily: Punishing People for Their Relatives’ Crimes Comes Under Scrutiny in China
  • China Banking Stress Tests
  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (20 Sep 2024)
  • HEW: Fed Risks Forcing a Failure to Land
  • Vietnam’s Equities Poised To Recover On The Back Of Potential Market Upgrade And Easing Overhang
  • [ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Sep 2024
  • Japan Policy Rate 0.25% (consensus 0.25%) in Sep-24


EM Watch: Time to play the long end of the Chinese yield curve?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) from the perspective of Western investors.
  • It continues to be a rough month for anything linked to China.
  • We have observed early signs of stabilization in China’s pollution data, which may indicate some level of stability at lower levels of industrial output.

EV War Hots Up; China Firms Branch Out To Outside Countries

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • US ADD measure expected to be in force from Sept 27
  • Bombarded by Chinese exports Canada too join ADD league
  • Tesla exports from China faces ADD in Canada, EU excuses

CX Daily: Punishing People for Their Relatives’ Crimes Comes Under Scrutiny in China

By Caixin Global

  • Punishment / In Depth: Punishing people for their relatives’ crimes comes under scrutiny in China Legal experts in China are pushing to reform a longstanding practice that can cause law-abiding citizens to lose their shot at joining the civil service, getting into certain university programs or the military if they happen to be related to a convicted criminal.
  • The reform push has the potential to curtail the practice — known as collective punishment — that has been criticized for violating basic legal norms and putting a large proportion of China’s population at risk of being punished for the actions of another.
  • FINANCE & ECONOMY PwC / PwC Hong Kong next in firing line over Evergrande scandal Penalties and lawsuits loom over PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) Hong Kong affiliate after China slapped its mainland counterpart with a record penalty last week for its fraudulent accounting for Hengda Real Estate Group Co.

China Banking Stress Tests

By Alex Ng

  • China’s 19 major domestic systemically important banks hold up well under most solvency and liquidity tests, though some capital shortfalls appear with a moderate or severe NPL sensitivity shock scenario.  
  • The safety net would likely be capital injections including from central government as occurred with the largest 4 banks in 1997-04 or takeover and mergers.
  • However, small and mid-sized banks shortfall of capital in the more severe sensitivity would test China authorities crisis management and response capacity.

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (20 Sep 2024)

By Alex Ng

  • This week’s main mover is Fed’s surprised rate cut by 50bps. It shakes the market first day it came out and has a positive effect on following day trading.
  • While S&P500 is up 1.97%, Hang Seng glitters with a 5.55% increase and break through the technical resistance at 18,000.
  • We believe after the Fed rate hike, the entire Hong Kong stock market has changed. With the break through upward of 18,000, Hang Seng can go on to challenge 20,000.

HEW: Fed Risks Forcing a Failure to Land

By Phil Rush

  • The Fed made a forceful 50bp rate cut despite data resilience, with concerns of over-easing due to excessive focus on politics and labour demand. Meanwhile, Brazil has begun reversing its rate cuts and the BoE is exercising caution.
  • Next week, the dovish focus will shift to the SNB, Riksbank and Bank of Mexico. Fed speakers may moderate dovish extrapolated pricing after strongly encouraging it.
  • Key inflation highlights to watch out for are France and Spain’s Flash HICP for September and the US PCE for August.

Vietnam’s Equities Poised To Recover On The Back Of Potential Market Upgrade And Easing Overhang

By Pranay Yadav

  • Vietnam is streamlining transactions for foreign investors through market reforms as it seeks reclassification from frontier to emerging market status, a change that could drive substantial inflows into its equities.
  • Vietnam’s strategic location, low labor costs, and “China Plus One” strategy make it a key player in global manufacturing. Strong domestic growth suggests equity upside.
  • The iEdge Vietnam 30 Sector Cap Index provides exposure to Real Estate, Financial Services, and Manufacturing. The index’s forward P/E of 13.65 suggests strong earnings growth ahead.

[ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Sep 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • The Fed’s unexpected 50 basis-point rate cut has raised concerns about U.S. economic stability despite strong GDP and CPI figures.
  • Interest rate cuts are expected across Asia, particularly in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand, but India remains stable.
  • Malaysia’s imports surged, signaling economic recovery, while Vietnam’s pro-growth leadership and upcoming projects boost its economic outlook.

Japan Policy Rate 0.25% (consensus 0.25%) in Sep-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.25%, consistent with expectations, sustaining globally accommodative financial conditions to support economic growth and wage inflation.
  • Global economic conditions, domestic inflation trends, wage-price dynamics, and exchange rate fluctuations will influence future interest rate decisions.
  • The BOJ’s current stance reflects a gradual approach to inflation management, focusing on monitoring wage growth and price stability before making significant policy adjustments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Australia: Dragon Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s Missing from Lotus’s Study?


What’s Missing from Lotus’s Study?

By Money of Mine

  • Lotus released a scope and study for the Little Cane project in Botswana
  • The project hosts a low grade resource with 71% inferred
  • The study includes three scenarios for production and focuses on reducing the need for drill and blast operations, potentially using drag lines for waste removal.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, HLB Therapeutics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) Also Now Trading Through Terms
  • Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc
  • Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?


Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) Also Now Trading Through Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 13th September, MBK joined Young Poong (000670 KS) in seeking control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) via Partial Tender Offers for KZ and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS).
  • This situation has been canvassed by analysts here at Smartkarma; with increasing expectation the Choi family makes a counterbid.
  • This insight analyses the fair value of YPP. No matter how you slice it, the Offer Price is punchy. Perhaps not punchier enough.

Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss in detail MBK’s four major concerns on the management of Korea Zinc. 
  • We believe that MBK has legitimate concerns on especially the three factors including poor investments, deteriorating profitability, and increase in equity capital/disposal of treasury shares. 
  • If and when the 2 trillion won+ is raised, then it could lead to another tender offer and the four concerns highlighted in this insight become much more important.

Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Jeisys Medical’s getting booted from the KOSDAQ 150, and HLB Therapeutics is stepping in as the new addition. This change will officially hit the book on Wednesday, September 25.
  • HLB Therapeutics, with a ₩0.70T market cap and 87% float, is set for a 0.51% weight in KOSDAQ 150, triggering over 2 million shares in passive buying: 3.26x 30-day ADTV.
  • With today’s after-hours volume spike in HLB Therapeutics, we’re likely to see some price action from early movers spilling into Monday’s open, similar to what we saw with Webzen.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • EV War Hots Up; China Firms Branch Out To Outside Countries


EV War Hots Up; China Firms Branch Out To Outside Countries

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • US ADD measure expected to be in force from Sept 27
  • Bombarded by Chinese exports Canada too join ADD league
  • Tesla exports from China faces ADD in Canada, EU excuses

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