Consumer

• Shein is actively preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, tentatively scheduled for the second half of 2026.
• The company is targeting a listing valuation of US$40 billion to US$50 billion, representing a significant haircut from its historical peak valuations.
• I think the company is likely to face tough challenges in in reaching valuation at even lower end of its target valuation range. 

• SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.
• In our previous note, we briefly looked at the company’s business, financials and investor backing.
• In this note, we compare the company with listed peers from financial, operating and valuation perspectives.

• Ather Energy, an Indian electric two-wheeler manufacturer, delivered its first positive EBITDA, 89% revenue growth and a 71% reduction in net loss despite severe commodity inflation and supply constraints.
• Demand now exceeds production, with three-day dealer inventory, two-month waiting periods and 13,000-15,000 unrealised monthly sales, making the Auric ramp and EL launch critical for FY27 growth.
• Ather’s pricing power, 94% software attach rate and INR 2,500 crore funding strengthen the outlook, but execution, Auric capacity ramp-up and commodity-cost control will determine sustainable profitability.

• Formosa Prosonic announced excellent 2nd quarter numbers. Revenue up 66% y-on-y basis
• Gross Profit Margin fell from 15% to 10%. Despite significant cost control PAT fell from 14%  to 8%
• Excess Cash per share in the company books remains at 56 sens.

• Amos Food, a Chinese sugar confectionery maker, has filed its prospectus with the HKEX. BOA, CMS, and JPM are the joint sponsors.
• We look at the company’s core segments: Amos, Biobor and third-party brands.
• We think the deal is not interesting. Revenue growth and margin expansion prospects are outweighed by large concentration risk, geopolitical risk and weak consumer-sector sentiment.

• Volatile aftermarket. Shares rallied early before falling more than 40%, but have recovered to within striking distance of the IPO price.
• Execution improving. Better-than-expected adjusted earnings and reaffirmed full-year guidance restored investor confidence following a difficult spring.
• Sponsor overhang remains. Bain Capital’s significant ownership could create future follow-on offering opportunities as it monetizes its investment.

• 2Q FY2026 revenue of S$402.6m (+11.3% YoY) and net profit of S$37.6m (+10.2%); 1H revenue S$855.4m (+11.9%) on 16 new stores and +3.3% SSSG.
• Gross margin hit a record 32.8% in 2Q; network reached 97 stores; interim DPS raised 17.2% to 3.75 cents despite the S$520m Sungei Kadut build.
• At S$3.35, SSG trades at 30.3x FY2026e P/E and 23.0x EV/EBITDA; the premium reflects 27.1% ROE and net cash of S$402.3m, but upside now looks capped.

• As the world’s second-largest automotive components supplier, Denso is strategically positioned to capitalize on the industry’s shift towards electrification and autonomous driving. Its deep-rooted relationship with Toyota provides a stable foundation, while its expanding technological capabilities in semiconductors and software are key growth drivers.
• The company is navigating the transition from legacy internal combustion engine (ICE) components to future-focused products for electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This involves significant R&D investment and a strategic pivot towards higher-margin, technology-intensive systems.
• While facing headwinds from the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, persistent margin pressures, and intense global competition, Denso’s strong financial position, global manufacturing footprint, and commitment to innovation provide a resilient platform for long-term value creation.

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• DoorDash is preparing to take delivery beyond cars, bicycles, and scooters by developing its own drones and the infrastructure required to operate them.
• After years of testing aerial delivery through partners such as Alphabet’s Wing and Flytrex, the company has secured an important Federal Aviation Administration certification for commercial drone operations.
• DoorDash is also developing routing software, merchant handoff locations, remote operating systems, and autonomous ground vehicles such as Dot.

• Genuine Parts Company is undergoing a significant strategic transformation by separating its Automotive and Industrial segments into two independent public companies, a move expected to unlock shareholder value and enhance focus.
• The company’s vast distribution network, particularly through its NAPA brand, provides a significant competitive advantage in the stable, non-discretionary automotive aftermarket, which primarily serves the professional ‘do-it-for-me’ segment.
• Despite recent revenue growth, the company faces challenges including margin pressure in its North American Automotive segment, macroeconomic headwinds, and execution risks associated with the planned business separation.

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• After a strong stretch for the U.S. IPO market, Thursday’s debut of Jersey Mike’s (JMKE) and Reformation (REF) offered a reminder that investor demand remains highly selective.
• Despite entering the public markets with recognizable consumer brands and significant institutional interest, neither offering was able to establish sustained upside momentum during its first day of trading.
• Jersey Mike’s priced its IPO at $23.00 per share, above the midpoint of its marketed range, but opened trading at $21.00, immediately below its offering price.

• Watches of Switzerland received multiple takeover offers, with stock barely moving, suggesting a potential entry point for investors.
• Unicycive Therapeutics’ shares dropped 40% due to FDA review timeline issues, not drug efficacy, suggesting market overreaction.
• DMC Global’s strategic review ended without acceptable offers, impacting the business-sale catalyst, but recent quarters show recovery signs.

• We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.
• Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.
• In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.

• Dickson Concepts exhibits a robust financial position, characterized by a substantial net cash balance and strong free cash flow generation, underpinning significant dividend payouts.
• The company’s performance is closely tied to the cyclical nature of the luxury goods market in Hong Kong and Taiwan, which faces headwinds from shifting tourist spending patterns and competition from other regions.
• Led by its experienced founder, Dickson Poon, the company leverages long-standing, exclusive relationships with premier luxury brands, though it faces corporate governance risks typical of a founder-controlled entity.

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• Short interest signals were sharply divided this week.
• Big increases hit FCEL , URA , and SOLS , while covers accelerated in ASIC , FTEC , and PB .
• Borrow markets flashed stress in several small-caps, with LVWR and VFS hitting near-zero availability.

• Alibaba is navigating a period of significant transition, refocusing on its core e-commerce and cloud computing businesses while facing unprecedented competitive intensity from rivals like PDD Holdings and Tencent.
• The company is making a substantial strategic pivot towards Artificial Intelligence, highlighted by the development of its large-parameter Qwen AI model, which it aims to monetize through its extensive cloud infrastructure and enterprise client base.
• Despite a challenging macroeconomic and regulatory environment that has compressed margins and slowed growth, the company has initiated shareholder returns through dividends and is pursuing a corporate restructuring to unlock value across its various business segments.

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• Q2 FY26 net sales of Rph 961 bn rose 19.9% YoY; net income of Rph 300 bn grew 30.8%, the strongest second quarter on record.
• Gross margin expanded by 337 bps to 63.2%, but selling and G&A expenses grew by 32.5%, absorbing the gain; EBITDA margin was flat at 47.5%.
• At Rph 6,800, the numbers imply 11.0x FY26E P/E, 7.0x EV/EBITDA, and 9.1% yield; H1 tracks ahead of FY26E revenue assumptions.

• Q2 FY2026 revenue of VND 479,324mn grew 21.7% YoY, with net income attributable to parent up 23.2% to VND 77,069mn despite a normalized tax charge.
• Growth mix shifted decisively toward services, up 37.7% YoY, while EBITDA margin eased by 31 bps to 22.0%; net cash rose to VND 411,177mn as of 30 June 2026.
• At 9.1x FY26E P/E, 5.3x FY26E EV/EBITDA and a 7.7% prospective yield on the model reference price of VND 64,000, the valuation remains undemanding.

• Transaction Underpinnings & Valuation Play: Alimentation Couche-Tard’s cash tender offer of PLN 32.00 per share values Zabka Group at PLN 32.62 billion (US$8.6 billion), representing a multiple of approximately 10x NTM EBITDA (or Adjusted EBITDA). While the exit is highly favorable for majority sponsors CVC Capital Partners (37.6% stake) and Partners Group (via PG Investment Company’s 10% stake), minority shareholders are likely to demand a bump to the bid. This pushback is intensified by Zabka’s exceptional Q2 2026 results, which showed Adjusted EBITDA up 16.2% year-over-year to PLN 1,228 million on a 13.3% margin.
• Regulatory Bottlenecks & Sunday Premium Risk: The Polish competition watchdog, UOKiK, is expected to apply a narrow “convenience store and proximity retail” market definition rather than a broad food retail category. This narrow scope, combined with Couche-Tard’s existing nearly 400 Circle K stations in Poland, presents a high probability of localized store divestment remedies. Furthermore, any legal change to Poland’s Sunday trading law—which currently limits shopping to only eight Sundays in 2026—poses a major threat. Zabka’s franchise network bypasses the Sunday ban through independent owner-operator exemptions, generating a significant “Sunday premium” that accounts for a disproportionate share of weekly profits.
• Franchisee Attrition & Escalating Operational Pressures: The operational reality of Zabka’s 11,000 franchisees is characterized by a severe profit squeeze due to Poland’s rising minimum wage. Although Zabka has instituted a “Quarterly Margin Support” (QMS) mechanism to protect store operators, franchisee attrition rates remain elevated at an estimated 10% to 12% annually. Meanwhile, capital-intensive initiatives like the unmanned Zabka Nano format (over 50 stores) suffer from weak unit-level ROIs and extended payback periods, primarily driven by high edge-computing hardware CAPEX.

• Couche-Tard’s PLN32.00 cash offer values Żabka at approximately 10x NTM EBITDA, reflecting full standalone value rather than a discounted acquisition.
• Consensus forecasts show ROCE exceeding 23% and ROIC 18% by FY28, supporting premium valuation multiples and Couche-Tard’s willingness to pay full value.
• Irrevocable undertakings covering 57% of the share capital, manageable regulatory approvals and an implied market completion probability of 92.7% suggest the remaining spread modestly overstates execution risk.

• On Friday after the close, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback scheduled for Monday morning for ¥400bn, worth 8+% of shares outstanding. 
• That’s big. But the seller is likely to be SMBC Nikko. And they will then spend much of the next year buying back ¥400bn of shares on-market. 
• Separately, 7&i announced an alliance with Softbank Corp, PayPay, and Sumitomo Mitsui Card. They will buy ¥100bn each. Net, this means a 2% buyback IF successful. More if not.

• Fore Kopi Indonesia (FORE IJ)  was founded in 2018 by East Venture and listed in 2025. The company is focused on providing affordable premium coffee for aspirational consumers across Indonesia.
• Fore is focused on expanding into 2nd&3rd-tier cities where competition is less intense. The company is also expanding into doughnuts through Fore Donut, selling doughnuts with a healthy edge.
• The company is an interesting proxy for young aspirational consumers in Indonesia, with high-quality, locally focused products and relatively attractive pricing. Valuations remain attractive versus growth.

• Trip.com paid out US$770M in fines, illegal profits, and deposits to resolve investigation
• The penalty is equivalent to ~9% of 2025 Net Revenue — larger than Alibaba’s 2021 case (4%)
• In this insight we look at why the company engaged in anti-competitive practices

• Itochu has acquired Champion’s Japanese licensing and distribution rights, partnering with digital retail specialist Inglewood to run the brand.
• Current retail sales stand at ¥27 billion, but Itochu is betting on a 30% jump within three years
• Itochu and Inglewood hope to achieve this through an omnichannel overhaul and Inglewood’s e-commerce and AI-driven retail platform.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 27th July, published on the 23st July.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.8bn into “Banks”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of “Biotech”. Net shorts inclined A$1.7bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Pro Medicus (PME AU), Wesfarmers (WES AU), Computershare (CPU AU), CSL (CSL AU), ASX (ASX AU), and Stockland (SGP AU).

• Strict Return on Capital (ROC) Hurdles vs. Strategic Runways: Wesfarmers maintains a strict pre-tax Return on Capital hurdle rate, typically above 15% for established retail operations. However, it applies structured transactional patience to new growth platforms; Wesfarmers Health (anchored by the $1,025 million API acquisition) currently operates at a low 4.2% ROC as of its latest HY26 report, highlighting a long-term integration and scale runway rather than immediate margin extraction.
• Regulatory Bark Outpaces Operational Bite: Despite intense headline noise from ACCC and Senate inquiries into “big box” pricing and land-banking, the practical margin risk to Bunnings and Kmart is minimal. Their Everyday Low Price (EDLP) structural cost advantage serves as an effective shield, as any regulatory enforcement of price transparency or code of conduct compliance disproportionately harms higher-cost, lower-scale competitors.
• Anko’s Sourcing Moat and Capital Flexibility: Kmart Group’s direct-sourcing model—where the in-house Anko brand represents upwards of 85% of the product mix—insulates it from traditional multi-brand retail margin erosion. This operational cash engine, paired with S&P’s July 31, 2026, revision of Wesfarmers’ downside leverage trigger to 3.0x debt-to-EBITDA, provides substantial balance sheet capacity to fund capital-intensive industrial bets, such as the newly approved $645 million to $715 million Mt Holland lithium expansion.

• Cyclical Margin Expansion Fueled by Commodity Tailwinds: Yuen Kee Food Group’s (YKF) spectacular profit growth in early 2026—with net profit rising 176% year-over-year to 157 million yuan for the first five months of the year—is primarily a function of historically low pork prices. The company’s B2B supply model allowed the gross margin on pork fillings sold to franchisees to surge from 28.1% to 36.1%, masking structural headwinds at the retail level.
• Diverging Growth Profiles: A critical divergence has emerged between headquarters-level revenue growth (39.8% year-over-year) and terminal store GMV growth (27.3% year-over-year). This 12.5 percentage-point gap indicates that YKF’s top-line expansion is heavily driven by upfront inventory stocking for new franchise openings rather than organic, repeat consumer demand at existing outlets.
• Delivery Platform Dependency and Unit Economics: Online delivery has climbed to account for 45.3% of total store GMV. While this has supported high inventory turnover (13.7 days), it exposes franchisees to severe margin pressure from rising gig-economy delivery commissions and platform subsidies. This dynamic threatens the stability of YKF’s ultra-lean neighborhood store format, which currently relies on low rent-to-sales ratios (8% to 10%) to remain viable.

• If the revised Corporate Governance Code requires Prime market-listed companies to have majority independent outside directors, issues regarding outside directors’ concurrent positions and long tenures may become more prominent.
• The real reason hiring at companies with statutory nomination committee etc. isn’t progressing is that internal leadership cannot accept the decisions made by nomination committee, which carry legal enforceability.
• As more companies establishing statutory nomination committees increases and corporate governance practices become more formalized at many companies, investor engagement will play an even more critical role than ever before.

• Q1 FY03/27 sales rose 2.4% YoY to JPY41.2bn, while operating profit declined 16.9% YoY to JPY2.9bn.
• SG&A expenses increased 5.6% YoY to JPY15.6bn, driven by higher personnel expenses and digital transformation initiatives.
• As of June 2026, the company operated 938 stores, with a net increase of one store in Japan.

• Mix over volume: Revenues rose 8.4% to EUR 1,938M, up 10.6% in constant currency, driven by a richer mix and personalizations exceeding 20% of C&SP revenues, despite 3.7% fewer shipments.
• Guidance raised: FY26 revenue lifted to approximately EUR 7.60B, EBITDA to at least EUR 2.97B, EPS to at least EUR 9.68; order book now covers all of 2027.
• Valuation: At $325.40, RACE trades at 32.7x FY26E P/E and 19.1x EV/EBITDA. Net industrial debt is EUR 131M after EUR 808M was returned.

• New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon
• We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers
• We look at California’s SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN

• Yuen Kee Food Group is the largest Chinese-style quick service restaurant (QSR) company in China by number of stores, serving dumplings, wontons, and related products.
• The company was the largest Chinese-style QSR by stores as of December 31, 2025, ranking 3rd with 0.7% market share in 2025 GMV.
• Revenue was RMB2,795,104 thousand in 2025, with profit for the year at RMB198,740 thousand and total assets of RMB2,043,474 thousand as of May 31, 2026.

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• Rice is so important in Asian cooking, including in Korea. Because rice is consumed nearly every day in most Korean households, the electric rice cookers are highly used. 
• Cuckoo Holdings (192400 KS) is the market leader in the electric rice cookers market in Korea with market share of nearly 70% or more.
• Valuations are cheap with EV/EBITDA of 2.6x and P/E of 6x. Dividend yields are now more than 6%. 

• Ford Motor Company’s second quarter results reflect a complex but steadily evolving business landscape, marked by both operational improvements and ongoing challenges.
• The company reported $48.3 billion in revenue, representing a 4% year-over-year decline, mainly influenced by expected volume reductions due to temporary aluminum supply chain disruptions linked to Novelis and the phase-out of certain vehicle models amidst portfolio refresh efforts.
• Despite this, Ford achieved a 17% increase in adjusted EBIT to $2.5 billion, driven primarily by favorable product mix and pricing strategies, indicating a disciplined approach to profitability amid headwinds.

• A weekly summary of key developments in ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us in Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India, and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK) and Manipal Health Enterprises Ltd (1217834D IN) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Future Corporation (4722 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Tamron Co Ltd (7740 JP), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). 

• Smart System Verticalization is the Real Margin Savior: While basic LED assemblies have commoditized to under 500 RMB, driving severe price-erosion pressure, Xingyu has defended its gross margin around 19.67% by aggressively verticalizing into light controllers, actuators, and software. Designing its own control units—such as for the Aito M9—allows it to capture higher unit economics than legacy Tier 1s who outsource these components to Tier 2s.
• HK IPO is a Structural Bypassing of Capital Controls, Not a Cash Squeeze: The company’s recent July 29, 2026 Hong Kong listing application is not driven by a domestic funding crisis, given their strong domestic cash flow with Q1 2026 operating cash flow at 421.06 million RMB. Rather, it represents a structural bypass to establish an offshore capital pool, allowing Xingyu to fund aggressive global expansion in Europe and North America without getting snarled in Beijing’s capital export regulations.
• The Serbian Plant is a Necessary, but Costly Tariff Hedge: Operating in Nis, Serbia, generated 430 million RMB in revenue in 2025 but remains structurally loss-making. The facility serves as an essential regional backdoor into the EU, bypassing direct tariff headwinds, yet it suffers from low local-content supply chains, severe local engineering talent bottlenecks, and agonizingly slow OEM validation cycles that drag heavily on return on investment (ROI).

• The Royal Caribbean Group reported second-quarter 2026 results that surpassed expectations, driven by a 6% increase in revenue year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.21, which was $0.33 higher than guidance.
• Capacity grew 5%, with 2.4 million vacations delivered, while net yields rose 1.2%, 100 basis points above projections.
• The company highlighted strong close-in booking demand and elevated onboard spending, particularly for Caribbean sailings.

• Mondelez International reported a second-quarter 2026 performance characterized by steady geographic variation and ongoing strategic initiatives.
• The company achieved a 4.4% top-line growth driven primarily by strong volume growth in emerging markets, where consumer confidence remains generally stable, and distribution expansion continues, notably with 100,000 additional stores in India and reaching 1 million stores in Brazil.
• Despite softness in China, management expects gradual improvement and emphasizes a structural growth opportunity underpinned by a balanced mix of global and local brands touching various price tiers.

• The Coca-Cola Company reported a solid performance for the second quarter of 2026, characterized by broad-based volume growth and expanding margins amid a mixed global economic environment.
• The company delivered 5% volume growth for the quarter and organic revenue growth at the high end of its long-term algorithm, though over a two-year average, volume growth moderated to 2%.
• This reflected a balanced top-line contribution amidst challenges in various consumer markets due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

• BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India.
• In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index for the December 2026 index rebal event.
• As things stand, there will be one index change for the BSE SENSEX index in December 2026.

• Since its founding in 2008, MoneyMax (MM) has transformed itself to become a dominant pawnbroker and jeweller in Singapore (SG).
• Recently upgraded to SGX Mainboard, RHTC believes MM is on track to achieve $1bn sales over the next 3 years on the back of its strategic growth execution in both SG & Malaysia.
• MM’s high margin (43% PBT FY25) pawnbroking business provides sufficient downside buffer for investors as it operates in a highly regulated industry (SG & M’sia) that is capital intensive (competitive moat against new entrants).

• Hong Kong equities extended their rally with broad participation and continued outperformance versus North American technology stocks.
• Single stock option activity rebounded, with Call trading most active during the week’s strongest market session and Xiaomi seeing a large uptick in volume.
• Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary stood out as the strongest sectors during another broadly positive week.

• Sona BLW posted record Q1 FY27 revenue, unveiled the “Sona Comstar 2.0” strategy, signed two DENSO joint ventures, and entered Robotics and Physical AI.
• The pivot diversifies revenue beyond cyclical auto demand, but near-term margins are compressing even as growth accelerates and multiples stay rich.
• A full breakdown of the order book, plant footprint, revenue mix shifts, and whether the current valuation leaves room for error.

• Sales reached JPY75.9bn, a 6.0% YoY increase, achieving 23.7% of the company’s full-year forecast.
• Operating profit rose 11.2% YoY to JPY3.7bn, with segment-specific growth in Chemicals and declines in Fibers.
• Net income attributable to owners was JPY3.1bn, a 23.6% YoY increase, achieving 29.5% of the full-year forecast.

• AutoZone is a dominant player in the U.S. automotive aftermarket, with a strong focus on the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) customer segment, which accounts for a significant majority of its revenue.
• The company’s growth strategy is centered on expanding its commercial (Do-It-For-Me or DIFM) business to service professional repair shops, growing its international presence in Mexico and Brazil, and leveraging its extensive store and distribution network.
• Key risks to the outlook include intense competition, rising operating expenses, and the long-term secular shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), which have fewer replacement parts and different maintenance needs than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

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• CCK is a leading integrated poultry and seafood producer with a dominant retail footprint in East Malaysia, providing a resilient, defensive earnings stream based on staple food products.
• Strategic expansion into Indonesia, funded by a partial stake sale of its Indonesian subsidiary, presents a significant long-term growth catalyst by tapping into a large and under-penetrated market.
• While the company exhibits strong long-term growth and a consistent dividend history, recent performance shows signs of pressure with declining net income and negative free cash flow, warranting close monitoring of operational efficiency and cost control.

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• Changzhou Xingyu designs, manufactures, and sells automotive lighting products and electronic components globally, leveraging technology innovation and intelligent manufacturing. It is the largest provider in China and a major global.
• The company holds 11.6% Chinese automotive lighting market share and 10.2% global intelligent automotive lighting market share in 2025. It covers nine of the world’s top ten automotive manufacturers.
• Revenue was RMB15,256,666 and profit for the year was RMB1,624,084 in 2025. Total equity was RMB11,573,021 as of March 31, 2026.

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• Sales reached JPY69.6bn (+15.0% YoY), with operating profit at JPY6.2bn (+48.7% YoY) and net income JPY4.2bn (+50.1% YoY).
• Seria opened 28 directly managed stores and closed 7, totaling 2,155 stores, with comparable store sales growing 11.6% YoY.
• Full-year forecast revised to sales JPY276.1bn (+8.0% YoY), operating profit JPY22.1bn (+5.4% YoY), net income JPY15.4bn (+4.8% YoY).

• Sona Comstar, an automotive technology supplier, launched its Robotics & Physical AI vertical with an INR 800 crore order book, INR 62.6 crore capex and SOPs beginning Q2 FY27.
• The company can reuse motors, precision gears, controllers, radar and software across robot joints, AMRs and perception systems, supported by NEURA Robotics and IIT Hyderabad partnerships.
• The opportunity is commercially credible but still early: robotics remains optionality until order-book conversion, programme margins, customer quality and scalable production become visible.

• SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$3 billion.
• In SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on a business model under severe strain, as reflected in rapidly declining growth, margin pressure, and down rounds. 

• Reported vs “Reality” extends the Broken Promises methodology. Where Broken Promises tests standing management claims, this series presents our independent read of “The Reality” vs what gets Reported. 
• Reported Highlights (management’s word), What Caught Our Attention (the gap), The “Reality” (our read of true economics and thesis implications) — three parts per name.
• This note focuses on : Meesho (MEESHO IN) , Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd (BJL) (0124165D IN) & IndiaMart (INMART IN).  

• On 30 July, Diamond reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) had proposed privatising Tamron Co Ltd (7740 JP) at an acquisition price of around JPY200 billion. 
• If the JPY200 billion refers to the cost to acquire the voting shares excluding Sony’s, the implied offer is JPY1,469, a 29.5% premium to the unaffected price of JPY1,134.
• Effissimo would support the rumoured offer price, as it represents an all-time high and is attractive relative to peers’ multiples.  

• Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) trades at 10.5x FCF and 8.5x EBITDA, below historical 11-16x FCF and 9-17x EBITDA.
• WOSG’s revenue per showroom increased by 60% over seven years, with store improvements driving revenue growth.
• WOSG’s US market, generating over half of sales, compounded sales at 34%, with 18% EBITDA margins.

• Dominant Market Position with Strong Brand Recognition: Thai Vegetable Oil (TVO) is a leading manufacturer of soybean oil and soy meal in Thailand, benefiting from established brands such as ‘A-Ngoon’ which provides a significant competitive advantage.
• Attractive Dividend Yield and Financial Stability: The company maintains a strong financial position with no interest-bearing debt, allowing for a consistent and high dividend payout, with a recent yield of 7.23%.
• Growth Potential Tempered by Commodity Risk: Future earnings growth is supported by a planned capacity expansion set for completion in late 2025. However, profitability remains susceptible to the volatility of global soybean prices and changes in government biofuel policies.

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• SML Mahindra, Mahindra Group’s listed commercial-vehicle platform, will acquire M&M’s Truck and Bus Division for INR 525 crore via slump sale, subject to approvals.
• MTBD adds INR 2,989 crore FY26 revenue and 14,832 vehicles, more than doubling SML’s revenue base and creating a broader truck-and-bus platform.
• Strategic fit is clear, but value creation depends on funding, leverage, related-party terms and margin recovery not just the low 0.18x sales multiple.

• Jersey Mike’s priced a $1.0 billion IPO at the midpoint but opened below issue price after an unusually-lengthy delayed opening.
• Despite being more than 15x oversubscribed, the book was heavily anchored by long-only investors, while valuation ultimately limited aftermarket demand.
• The weak debut serves as another reminder that sponsor-backed IPOs must balance issuer objectives with buy-side valuation expectations.

• The Chartist sees a healthy pause in Aristocrat Leisure shares, following the breakout, setting the stage for another leg higher.

• Sadot Group Inc. is a Nevada corporation focused on its global Agri-Foods unit, engaged in farming, commodity trading, and shipping. The company divested its U.S.-centric restaurant business and is streamlining.
• Sadot Group operates a 5,000-acre farm in Zambia, focusing on wheat, soy, corn, avocado, and mango. It acquired TradeIQ IP for $6M and Tradewell for $12M.
• The company reported zero commodity sales revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2026, compared to $132.2 million in the prior-year period.

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• Eastroc’s structural deceleration is becoming highly visible, with flagship Eastroc Special Drink’s growth slowing to 13.1% YoY in Q1 2026, confirming that the core energy drink market is entering a mature, late-cycle phase. While overall 2025 revenue hit 20.88 billion yuan (up 31.80% YoY), the dependency on a single product segment remains a major bottleneck.
• The “second curve” brand, Bushui La (electrolyte water), is facing intense competitive headwinds. After a massive expansion to 3.27 billion yuan in 2025, it grew by only 13.2% YoY to 650 million yuan in Q1 2026. This sharp deceleration is driven by a price-war environment against entrenched incumbents like Nongfu Spring and a product mix that carries a significantly lower gross margin of 29.7% compared to the core energy drink portfolio.
• Channel management and balance-sheet buffer mechanics are drawing institutional scrutiny. Eastroc’s 应付销售返利与折扣 (sales rebate liabilities) surged to 34.48 billion yuan by the end of 2025, equivalent to roughly 78% of the year’s net profit. This reflects aggressive channel stuffing to defend market share across its 4.5 million active retail terminals, masking the true level of end-consumer pull and causing high cash flow divergence.

• Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK) (MF), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. Its cornerstone investors will soon be released from their lockup.
• MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Yadea (1585 HK) has introduced new capabilities, including sodium batteries and battery swapping, that will yield revenue growth. 
• Investments in the overseas manufacturing facilities will produce higher margins and avoid a price war in China. 
• After a big jump in the sales and earnings in FY 2025 while AIMA Technology Group (603529 CH) result is worse, the share price has not really moved. A buying opportunity. 

• Own-Brand Growth Vulnerability: While Amos Food has successfully pivoted from OEM to proprietary brands, driving revenue to 2.78 billion yuan in 2025, this growth is highly dependent on “viral” hit-product cycles like Peelerz, which are structurally difficult to sustain and carry lower pricing power than established global brands.
• Severe Tariff & Supply Chain Headwinds: U.S. tariff expenses exploded from 6 million yuan to 108 million yuan between 2023 and 2025, eating 18% of net profit. The planned Vietnam factory, scheduled for late 2026, faces major supply chain maturity constraints and escalating geopolitical risks that limit its effectiveness as a tariff hedge.
• Squeezed Margins & Retail Volatility: Securing shelf space in North American retail (Walmart, Target, Costco) requires high slotting fees, trade promotions, and co-op marketing. This, paired with inflating customer acquisition costs (CAC) and copycat pressure from deep-pocketed legacy players like Haribo, threatens Amos’s long-term operating margins post-IPO.

• The widely cited “$5 billion” net income swing is actually an RMB 5.3 billion (approx. US$730 million) negative variance in “other income/loss, net,” representing a mix-up of currency units in initial market reporting. This non-operating swing—driven by a suspected RMB 1.5 billion regulatory fine and retrospective local tax subsidy clawbacks—was the sole driver of the Q1 2026 GAAP net income decline of 15% to RMB 12.5 billion.
• PDD’s core operating trajectory remains highly robust, making GAAP operating profit of RMB 19.6 billion (up 22% year-over-year) the most reliable compass of business health. The optical slowdown in online marketing ad growth to 2.5% (to RMB 49.9 billion) is an accounting distortion caused by “Smart Coupon” nets, masking a true underlying ad growth rate of 12% to 15% on estimated GMV growth of roughly 18%.
• The company’s massive RMB 436.1 billion onshore cash pile is politically and operationally locked, precluding offshore share buybacks. Instead, PDD is deploying this cash to fund its capital-intensive RMB 100 billion “Xinpinmu” self-operated brand initiative—including the recent RMB 3.3 billion acquisition of the DBS Bank Tower in Shanghai—as a direct structural hedge against cross-border tariffs and compliance risks.

• Imminent Lockup Expiry Pressure: On August 6, 2026, the 6-month lockup on Muyuan’s HK$10.7 billion H-share IPO expires, releasing US$685 million in cornerstone investments. While industrial strategics like Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) (US$200 million allocation) and Wilmar (US$70 million) are locked in for the long haul to secure supply-chain synergies, financial cornerstones such as Fidelity (US$80 million) and Ping An face severe pressure to exit or trim positions as the stock trades near HK$31.22, a steep discount from the HK$39.00 IPO price.
• Buyback Plan is a Purely Defensive Signaling Device: The approved HKD 300 million to HKD 500 million H-share buyback program is funded not by organic cash flow—given the CNY 5.7 billion to CNY 6.7 billion projected H1 2026 net loss—but rather by state-approved domestic debt. This program is strategically timed as a defensive measure to cushion the market ahead of the August lockup unlock, adding to a balance sheet already burdened by high short-term leverage.
• Severe Cash Burn and Biological Asset Valuation Smoothing: Muyuan is experiencing a direct cash drain, selling 38.62 million market hogs in H1 2026 at an average price of CNY 10.4 per kilogram (dipping to CNY 9.69 per kilogram in June) against a fully-loaded production cost of CNY 11.6 to 11.7 per kilogram. Under CAS 5, the valuation of their RMB 36.59 billion biological assets is subject to highly sensitive internal assumptions (such as feed conversion ratios and piglet mortality rates) that management has historically tweaked to smooth paper losses, deferring the full visual impact of this downcycle on the profit and loss statement.

• Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
• Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook; and as long as this holds, this consolidation appears healthy
• Technology has continued to move sideways-to-lower, and we still believe the “rotation trade” that we have been recommending since May 29 will continue to work for the foreseeable future.

• Amos Food Group (AMOS HK) is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Amos Food (AF) is a leading global sugar confectionery company engaged in the design, manufacturing and sales of innovative candy products.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Copart is a dominant global leader in the online vehicle auction market, specializing in salvage vehicles, with a business model that creates a wide economic moat through significant network effects and high barriers to entry.
• The company exhibits a strong track record of profitable growth, driven by resilient demand from the insurance industry and international expansion. Its capital-light, fee-based model generates substantial free cash flow.
• Future growth is expected to be propelled by three key pillars: continued international expansion, growth in the domestic whole car market, and the enhancement of technology-driven services for its customers.

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• An increase in % of variable compensation in executive compensation, linked to medium-to-long-term performance targets, is expected to foster shareholder-oriented management and lead to growth of shareholder value over time.
• Some caution is needed when executive compensation is linked to TSR. The key is to ensure that executive incentive compensation is determined based on combination of medium-to-long-term performance and TSR.
• Although the proportion of performance-based and incentive compensation has been gradually increasing, it seems that many executives are still hesitant to take risks to create value.

• In Q1 FY03/27, revenue decreased 43.0% YoY to JPY10.0bn, with a net loss of JPY720mn.
• Condominium business revenue fell 62.3% YoY, with 49 units handed over and land bank at JPY430.0bn.
• Asset Management revenue rose 0.2% YoY, driven by higher management fees and expanded assets under management.

• SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$3 billion.
• Shein is the largest online fashion destination globally as measured by apparel and footwear retail sales value in 2025.
• The bull case rests on scale and cost advantages that are hard to replicate, robust order growth, the largest geographic segment not being constrained by tariff politics, and cash generation. 

• SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK) (SHEIN), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its Hong Kong listing.
• Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Yuchai’s HHP capacity expansion is going as planned, with supply chain changes helping boost capacity.
• As previously noted, this expansion should result in a sizable boost to 2026 results. This excludes the engines available from MTU.
• Work is progressing on the MGP listing in Hong Kong, but any future updates will come as disclosed via the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

• Tesla (TSLA US) reported a sharp contrast between revenue growth and margin erosion. The statewide approval is efficient, but it will not happen next year either. 
• The management warned of high CapEx that will keep free cash flow under pressure. 
• No indication of turnaround yet; thus, it is not too late to short the stock. 

• Jerash Holdings offers a compelling value and dividend proposition, underscored by its strategic position as a key apparel manufacturer in Jordan with duty-free access to the U.S. market.
• A recent financial turnaround, marked by record annual revenue and a return to profitability in fiscal year 2026, signals positive operational momentum and improved production efficiencies.
• Significant risks remain, including high customer concentration, the inherent cyclicality of the apparel industry, and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which could impact future performance.

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• Strong 1H beat driven by forex gains and fishing outperformance; full-year operating income guidance unchanged as 2H faces Middle East cost headwinds.
• Bicycle inventory overhang in Europe and China persists, though 2Q showed early signs of stabilisation; fishing tackle momentum remains robust.
• Valuation broadly in line with historical averages; we maintain our mildly bullish view.

• SHEIN’s cash conversion cycle is -46.5 days and widening — suppliers (108.6 payable days) and prepaying customers fund growth, while gross margin hit 67.9%, the highest among fashion peers.
• Revenue growth fell to 1.1% as US tariffs bit, but adjusted net profit (stripping preferred-share accounting) still fell 42% YoY — real margin compression from marketing costs, not just optics.
• We think fair value US$50bn (+11% vs target midpoint), as 1.19x sales still undervalues SHEIN versus Inditex’s 4.6x despite superior margins and cash generation.

• McCormick is the global leader in the spices and seasonings market, possessing a strong portfolio of brands including McCormick, French’s, and Frank’s RedHot, which provides significant brand equity and pricing power.
• The company is navigating a challenging environment of soft consumer volumes and cost inflation, relying on pricing actions and productivity savings to drive modest organic growth and margin expansion.
• Activist investor involvement and a potential transformative combination with Unilever’s Foods business introduce both significant opportunities for value creation and considerable integration and execution risks.

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• Revenue mix between exports and domestic sales remain steady (60% and 40%)
• The company has completed a three-storey factory block and warehouse, which will lead to the installation of a new biscuit line.
• The company talked about production efficiency and new product launches both for local and export markets.

• SHEIN, which previously operates on light-asset model of “cross-border direct mail”,has been forced to shift to heavy-asset model of “local fulfillment” (construction of overseas warehouses).This demands more precise inventory forecasting
• SHEIN’s net profit has continued to decline.YoY growth of global website traffic has dropped to single digits in June 2026, indicating that the global traffic boom has reached its peak. 
• The peak valuation of ~US$100bn in 2022 would not be achievable, and valuation discount in IPO is inevitable. We think comfortable valuation could be 27.3-45.5x P/E based on 2026 forecast.

• SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS, and JPM are the joint sponsors.
• We look at the company’s core segments: apparel and non-apparel.
• We then look at the company’s financial profile, profit decline, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.

• Indonesia’s Mother & Baby e-commerce category grew 36% year on year in Q1 2026 to roughly 20 trillion IDR across the three platforms Cube tracks inTradewinds: Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada.
• Shopee still commands the category with a 69% share, but TikTok Shop is the fastest-rising force, and Baby personal care is where the shift is most visible.
• Here is what the data says, and what brands should do about it.

• SHEIN Global Holdings Limited is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273 million active customers in 160 markets in 2025, pioneering a proprietary LATR operating model.
• SHEIN is the largest online fashion destination globally in 2025, with 273 million active customers and US$41.8 billion net revenues, achieving US$2,064 million net income.
• Net revenues were US$41,847 million in 2025, with net income of US$2,064 million. A net loss of US$99 million was recorded for the three months ended 31 March 2026.

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• Jersey Mike’s Subs is expected to list on the NYSE under the ticker JMKE, offering 43.48 million shares at a price range of $21.00 to $25.00 per share, targeting approximately $1.0 billion in gross proceeds.
• The company operates one of the largest and fastest-growing sandwich franchise systems in North America, with a proven operating model, strong unit economics, and broad national brand recognition.
• The offering is led by Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and J.P. Morgan, three of the most experienced underwriters in the IPO market. 

• SHEIN’s Q1 2026 net loss of $99 million was driven by a combination of a $328 million non-cash fair-value charge on convertible preferred shares and a 14.3% year-over-year decline in U.S. revenue to $2.04 billion, directly triggered by the Trump administration’s May 2025 removal of the de minimis duty-free exemption.
• The core LATR (Large-scale Automated Test and Reorder) model is highly sensitive to cross-border logistics costs. Imposing U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 87.5% on direct-to-consumer parcels destroys the unit economics of shipping micro-batches (100–200 units) from China, forcing price increases of 20% to 30% that alienate its core Gen Z base.
• Competition with Temu has descended into an unsustainable “stop-start” marketing war, with both players whipsawing ad auctions—such as Temu cutting U.S. ad spend by 51% in March 2026 before ramping back up—while struggling with low 5% conversion rates compared to Amazon’s 12%.

• Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, raised around US$1.3bn in its H-share listing. Its cornerstone investors will soon be released from their lockup.
• According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK) aims to raise HK$15.7-23.5bn in its upcoming HK IPO and has passed the listing committee hearing. It recorded losses of US$99m in 1Q26. 
• Key positives are its leadership position with global presence, excellent brand portfolio with comprehensive offerings, and unique operating model and end-to-end intelligent supply chain.
• Key negatives are its exposure to regulatory and tariff uncertainties, geopolitical and supply chain scrutiny, and challenges from intensifying competition.

• In this insight we discuss about Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)’s remarkable growth in Q1FY2027 detailing about the various aspects of this growth.
• We also discuss what is the signs of change in product mix and how it may impact the financials in coming period.
• Finally, we provide our view on near term performance along with valuation table.

• Consistent execution. Twenty-one consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth and five straight years of profitability highlight exceptional operating discipline.
• Loyal customer base. High repeat purchasing and efficient organic customer acquisition drive industry-leading marketing efficiency and support premium margins.
• Strong business, premium valuation. Reformation combines attractive growth with profitability, though a roughly 17x EBITDA multiple leaves little room for execution missteps.

• Reformation is expected to list on the NYSE under the ticker REF, offering 14.06 million shares at a price range of $15.00 to $17.00 per share, targeting approximately $225 million in gross proceeds.
• The company has established itself as one of the leading premium women’s apparel brands in North America through its direct-to-consumer model, disciplined merchandising strategy, and strong brand identity.
• Approximately 90% of revenue is generated through direct-to-consumer channels, giving the company significant control over pricing, customer relationships, and inventory management.

• A couple of years ago, TOPIX announced a methodology change to start in October 2026. Until that point, companies which IPO on TSE Prime or move segments are TOPIX members.
• In October 2026, using data from end-August 2026, there will be a ranking of the eligible TSE-listed (including Growth and Standard names) universe, adjusted by liquidity/ criteria.
• Incumbent members in the top 97% of cumulative free-float market cap (FFMC) stay in. Non-members in the top 96% get in. Members outside 97% get deleted. We see 700+ changes.

• Onitsuka Tiger posted record revenues last year at a 37.7% operating margin. 
• It is, and has been, far outperforming its parent, setting the stage for the full spin-off into a new subsidiary.
• The brand is likely to move further upmarket as a full lifestyle brand as it targets ¥200 billion, anchored by six new flagships and a return to the US market.

• SHEIN’s new IPO filing in Hong Kong shows the company recording a Net Loss in Q126
• A sharp increase in Q126 fulfilment costs helps to explain the period’s weaker profitability
• SHEIN’s ability to rein in unit fulfilment costs should be a key driver of long-term performance

• Hong Kong equities extended their advance, although recent momentum showed signs of levelling off after a strong start to the week.
• Strong gains across several Materials stocks helped distinguish the sector from the broader market advance.
• Tencent’s sharp decline generated exceptionally heavy option activity and drove the increase in Communication Services sector volumes.

• Context: Over the past five trading days, Alibaba (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Selected trades are highlighted.
• Highlights: Option traders positioned for a recovery into August earnings while retaining downside protection beyond the event through diagonal put spreads.
• Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies.

• Little West Holdings Inc. specializes in premium, low-sugar, cold-pressed juices, crafted with farm-sourced ingredients and utilizing High-Pressure Processing (HPP).
• The global cold-pressed juice market is projected to grow at an 8.13% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, expanding to USD 2.38 billion.
• An auditor has expressed substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

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• High-Pressure Processing (HPP) represents an operational and logistical bottleneck: While Little West’s new Los Angeles facility (physically connected to an HPP partner) eliminates the “double-freight” costs and thermal-abuse risks of traditional third-party tolling, it acts as a geographic anchor. This setup is highly capital-intensive and fundamentally non-scalable for national expansion without replicating local HPP infrastructure.
• Wholesale concentration and lack of pricing power threaten survival: The company relies on wholesale for 87.1% of its revenue, exposing it to massive customer concentration risk. The loss of a major national retail account in late 2024 drove a 31.4% year-over-year revenue decline in the first nine months of 2025 to $1.13 million, demonstrating that the brand lacks the pricing power to pass through co-packing or premium ingredient costs to large retail buyers.
• The Nasdaq IPO is a binary survival event: With an auditor going concern warning from Suri & Co., accelerating net losses of $542,603 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, and a $1.85 million minimum capital requirement to survive the next 12 months, the pending listing for Little West Holdings (LILW) is the company’s only viable runway extension. Neither its cash-strapped parent company, Veg House Holdings, nor high-interest merchant cash advances offer a sustainable alternative.