Energy & Materials Sector

• Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.
• This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.
• As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.

• If ORG cannot obtain the SAFE approval by the end of December, this indicates something is wrong in the process. Then the success rate of this transaction is greatly reduced.
• Acquiring CPMC is in line with Baosteel’s strategic goals and CPMC is important to Baosteel.So, the possibility of state-owned capital to agree to withdraw completely from CPMC is not high.
• It’s unclear whether Zhang Wei will continue to side with ORG, or whether he still want to exit. This actually depends on the renegotiations between Baosteel/China Foods/COFCO and Zhang Wei.

• In this insight, we review the major rights offerings/capital raises that were announced in Korea in 2024.
• In general, the major rights offerings/capital raises tend to result in lower share prices one month, three months, and over a longer time frame. 
• There are some exceptions. Peptron and ABL Bio experienced higher share prices even after their capital raise announcements, especially after a longer time frame (3 months or more).

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited.
• If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why it may be too late to enter the trade here.
• A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.

• Squeezed supply owing to rains lifts prices in domestic market
• Exports down 23.4% MoM at US$79.5 million in Sept
• Michelin seeks proactive policies to up rubber production 

After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green, Sunny Optical
• Wall Street has been expressing confusion over the Fed’s potential decision (according to minutes of the November meeting) to lower the rate on its overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) by 5 bps, possibly as early as next week.
• This adjustment comes alongside expectations of a quarter-point cut in the Fed’s main policy benchmark. 

• Global Atomic Corporation (GLO) operates in the uranium and zinc industries, with a focus on the Dasa uranium mine in Niger and a profitable zinc recycling business in Türkiye.
• GLO is well-positioned for growth due to the increasing demand for uranium driven by the expansion of nuclear energy, especially in emerging markets.
• Analysts suggest that GLO could potentially see a 5x increase in value at current uranium prices, with even greater potential if uranium prices continue to rise, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the commodities sector.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Comparing helium projects presents significant challenges due to variations in risk profiles, resource sizes, stages of maturity, operating environments, and potential for commercial viability.
• For example, it may be more advantageous to invest in a smaller resource base situated near established infrastructure and customers within a favorable operational setting, rather than a much larger exploration asset that carries a minimal chance of successful economic development, even if exploration yields positive results.
• The purpose of this note is to compare the potential commerciality of the projects held by various publicly listed helium juniors.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).
• Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was down 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 4.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.9%.
• Top 10 Performers: LEV, GRB, TGEN, HTOO, NGPHF, MVST, AZRE, EGT, MXL, HYSR

• Back on the 29th August 2024, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced  ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) had secured SAMR approval.  Mofcom and NDRC approvals subsequently followed. 
• The pre-condition long stop date is the 6th January. SAFE is the outstanding pre-condition. Separately, Zhang Wei’s 22.01% irrevocable expired on the 5th December – with no HKEx announcement.
• Quite a lot to pack in with 16 business days to the pre-con long stop. Sounding out people involved with the transaction would be ideal.  So that’s what I did. 

• Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussed
• Bullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commodities
• Neutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026

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• Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada
• The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security
• The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.

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• SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
• Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
• Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.

• The funding package between Iluka Resources and the government was finalized, leading to a 10% market decline
• Iluka Resources planned to build a Rare Earths refinery in Enneba with the assistance of a $1.05 billion non recourse loan from the Australian government
• Iluka also had plans to process their Wimmera deposit through the refinery, despite challenges with separation and impurities causing delays in development.

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• The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks
• For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.
• The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.

• WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  
• WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.

• US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.

• In this edition: • Philips/Unilever/AkzoNobel/Heineken/Signify | Chinese leaders have changed their stance on monetary policy • Aalberts | commits to FY26 objectives and launches FY30 objectives • Havas | Vivendi shareholders support demerger plan • Dutch banking sector | Volksbank to take charge of EUR 360m this year

• We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer what’s priced in at 100 USD/ton.
• We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.
• Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.

• ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has one remaining precondition: SAFE approval.
• Mr Wei’s irrevocable was terminated. Nevertheless, as a seller, he will accept the offer, as the shares trade below the offer price, and there is no competing offer. 
• The precondition long stop date is 6 January, sufficient time to satisfy the precondition. It would be highly unusual to secure MOFCOM and NDRC approval but not SAFE approval.

• China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, is offering to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
• CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – will not participate in the tender, therefore elevating its stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently. 
• That % increase necessitates a whitewash waiver so as to not make a mandatory general Offer. 

• NR prices stage a comeback but then undergo correction
• Rubber Board convenes series of producer meets to tackle challenges
• Rubber Board proposes a fee to issue NOC to import NR

Quadrise has made a significant step towards commercialisation, through which its innovative emulsion fuel technology will contribute to the decarbonisation of the marine sector. The company announced that it has signed a Collaboration and Operational Trial Agreement (the project agreement) with MSC Shipmanagement and Cargill, paving the way for the highly anticipated vessel trials on board the MSC Leandra. The market recognised the significance of this agreement, with Quadrise’s stock price rallying by approximately 50% on the day of the announcement.

• The +118.3% YoY growth in FY24 Q1~Q3 operating profit [OP] of ¥3,649mil on sales of ¥13,682mil (+37.1% YoY)] was due to easy comps, rather than a full recovery, especially in demand associated with PCs and servers used in general data centre.
• One of the growth drivers in FY24 is package demand associated with generative AI, to which MEC’s core products, CZ-8101 and CZ-8401 chemicals are used.
• MEC has maintained its FY24 guidance for a consolidated annual dividend payment of ¥45/share.

• • Condor has completed a C$19.4 mm equity financing priced at C$1.90 per share.
• This represents a C$2 mm increase compared the latest announcement.
• • The proceeds of the raise will allow the company to bring to Uzbekistan a third service rig in 1Q25 and a drilling rig in 2Q25 (4Q25 previously).

After a couple of transitional years, Pan American Silver (PAAS) is in a much better position to deliver more consistent operational and cost performance as the Yamana assets are integrated, La Colorada ventilation issues are resolved and the asset portfolio is largely streamlined. We are upgrading our estimates on higher commodity price assumptions and raising our valuation to US$26.0/share. The stock has been derated on improving earnings momentum and is now trading at below average historical multiples. The recent M&A provides additional valuation support.

• China National Building Material (3323 HK) has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.
• The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
• The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. 

• We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
• Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
• Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM’s move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.

• The latest financial report from Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) offers a range of insights into both the achievements and challenges experienced by the company during the third quarter of 2024.
• The company, a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging, has shown resilience in a volatile market environment but also faces certain headwinds.
• In terms of performance, Graphic Packaging reported third-quarter sales of $2.2 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $433 million, reflecting a solid EBITDA margin of 19.5%.

• This is a follow-up to our initiation, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. The flagship mine added another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life. 
• At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  
• The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.

• In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
• Stocks like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.
• With China’s PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.

• Valaris Ltd.’s third-quarter results reflect a focused and disciplined approach to navigating the volatile offshore drilling market.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter was $643 million, up from $610 million in the previous quarter.
• This led to an improvement in adjusted EBITDA, which rose to $150 million from $139 million.

• In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
• The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
• We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 

• Crown Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 results demonstrating a mixed performance across its operations.
• The company managed a flat net sales figure of $3.1 billion year-over-year, showing strength in specific sectors but also facing challenges in others.
• The firm observed increases in global beverage can and North American food can volumes, while other business segments saw declines.

• After resumption of production at the Triton FPSO last week, an issue with one of the compressor seals has been discovered which has resulted in production being suspended.
• These repairs are expected to take 2-4 weeks.
• We are now cautiously assuming that Triton will be offline until YE24.

• Rio Tinto sold 30% of its Winu project to Sumitomo for $400 million, surprising many with the valuation
• Expecting a PFS in 2025 for a 10 million tonne per annum scenario for the Winu project
• The partnership with Sumitomo signifies the rise of Japan and South Korea in the mining industry and may benefit Rio Tinto in terms of capital allocation and project development.

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• Korea Zinc’s free float is dropping from 52% to 31%, a 21%p cut.
• Despite rising volume, retail still dominates. With this trend continuing, the 80,000-share sell volume is unlikely to get buried without triggering noticeable price moves.
• Ahead of big one-day flow events, shorts are loaded, causing a dip. On rebalance day, traders buy back, triggering a bounce. This event is likely to follow the same pattern.

• In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

• FAQ and guidance documents bring clarity
• Synthetic rubber out of the purview of EUDR
• Allows for rubber suppliers in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to catch up

• OPEC+ extends crude oil supply cuts to the end of 2026, a year longer than planned. It also pushed its planned output hikes by three months to April 2025.
• OPEC+ revised its output hike plan, reducing monthly increases to 138k bpd over 18 months, down from 180k bpd over 12 months.
• OPEC+ approved a 300k bpd output increase for the UAE, starting in April 2025 through September 2026, delayed from the original January 2025 start.

• • Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m – 1340 m, 1346 m – 1351 m and 1358 m -1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined.
• No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in.
• • Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delta Dunia Makmur, Gajah Tunggal
• In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 73.8 bn in October (USD 75.0 bn e / USD 83.8 bn revised). Imports fell 4% to USD 339.6 bn, while exports declined 1.6% to USD 265.7 bn.
• Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 30th rose to 224 k (215 k e / 215 k revised p). The focus today is on the November nonfarm payrolls report.

• Management estimates that HighPeak’s D,C,E,&F costs are ~$2 million lower for a well that recovers a similar volume of oil than the average central Midland Basin well.
• The combination highlights the return proposition for HighPeak’s acreage, as recovering similar oil volumes for less than 75% of the D,C,E,&F cost equates to a capital-efficient asset base.
• New wells drilled during 2024 in the northern and northeastern extension areas have expanded Flat Top’s development core, adding new inventory.

• In Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack)’s monthly update, there is no update.
• No further progress on the management Offer. Four months and counting. In the meantime, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology (301296 CH) (XJF) secured SAMR approval; and the appointment of two friendly directors.
• IF (and when) XJF’s Offer becomes open to acceptance and the IFA is supportive, management should back the Offer if their own Offer is unlikely to materialise. 

• European bodies agree to dump ‘no risk’ category of countries
• Dec 30 is deadline for endorsing delay by publishing in official journal 
• ETRMA, GPSNR ask European Parliament to solve remaining issues

• OPEC+ will meet today (05/Dec), following a postponement from 01/Dec, to decide whether to delay planned output increases further.
• The postponement caused market jitters, with WTI and Brent futures falling 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively, on 29/Nov. The uncertainty eased as the delay was attributed to scheduling conflicts.
• For the week starting 02/Dec, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rebounded, rising 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, driven by expectations of OPEC+ delaying planned output hikes due to price declines.

• For the week ending 29/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 5.1m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.6m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 30 Bcf for the week ending 29/Nov. Inventories are 7.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• UBS raised its 12-month price target on Chevron. Shell and Equinor plan to merge their UK offshore oil and gas assets to create a new company.

• Pactiv Evergreen, a leading manufacturer of packaging solutions, reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting both challenges and strategic advancements.
• The company generated revenues of $1.3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $214 million, representing a 16% margin.
• Adjusted earnings per share stood at $0.36, and free cash flow was strong at $190 million.

• Production from January to the end of November 2024 was 5,760 boe/d. This is line with our expectations. 
• FY24 production is expected to be around the same level. This is in line with our forecasts and within the FY24 production guidance range of 5.2-6.5 mboe/d. 
• The new wells at TGT are also performing in line with expectations and production in Vietnam from January to the end of November was 4,324 boe/d. This is in line with our forecasts.

• De Grey acquiring Northern Star for $5 billion
• Northern Star issuing new shares to De Grey shareholders
• Transformational deal with potential for future spin-offs and M&A opportunities

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• Deliveroo (ROO LN) and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT LN) are newly eligible securities forecasted to be added to F250 due to the recent change of the FCA listing category framework.
• Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) is the new forecasted addition-migration to F250 following its ~25% price jump over the last two days which made it surpass the entry threshold.
• Applied Nutrition Plc (APN LN) is a newly eligible, forecasted to be added to small-cap following its IPO listing on 24 October 2024.

• Rain Industries (RINDL IN) is the largest player of CTP and 2nd largest player of CPC in the world delivering loss due to downcycle in industry.
• CAQM enabled the import of GPC and CPC improved the pricing and demand further and also has created an opportunity for Rain Industries to ramp up its SEZ plant.
• Rain Industries is pivoting to future-ready sectors like EVs and batteries while addressing cyclical challenges. Focused debt reduction and strategic investments enhance its long-term growth potential despite near-term pressures.

• We are initiating coverage on YPF with an Outperform recommendation.
• Improving macroeconomic conditions in Argentina and YPF’s strategic focus on expanding unconventional production and investing in infrastructure, particularly export capacity, are expected to enhance its credit profile.
• We favor the YPFDAR (Caa3/CCC/CCC) 8.500% 2029 unsecured bonds, YPFDAR 9.000% 2029 unsecured bonds, and YPFDAR 9.500% 2031 secured bonds.

• ECVT has gone through several business divestments and acquisitions over its history and the latest news suggests management is not content. 
• The timing is a surprise given the segment is to serve ECVT’s growth trajectory. The segment houses new technologies that should begin to contribute to sales in coming quarters.   
• Advanced materials and catalysts is also the segment that owns the 50% stake in JV Zeolyst, which has been core of issues this year related to ECVT’s adjusted EBITDA performance.   

• What you need to know: • Omai announced another batch of assay results, reporting three holes with two hitting very wide intercepts with high-grade.
• • The two holes reported highlight intercepts of 3.16 g/t Au over 68.7m and 4.57 g/t Au over 45.5m.
• • Assays from seven holes remain pending and the three drills are expected to continue drilling well into the new year.

• • 3Q24 production was 1,047 boe/d.
• Zephyr has re-iterated its FY production guidance of 1,100-1,300 boe/d.
• We are cautiously assuming 1,100 boe/d.

• RaaS has published an update report on NT-focused gas explorer/producer Empire Energy Group (ASX:EEG) following the recent announcement that it had executed binding commitment letters for a $65m finance package, in three separate facilities.
• This is the critical piece of the capital funding requirement to support the Carpentaria Pilot Project to first gas as we see it.
• Importantly we suggest the securing of the package can be interpreted as a third-party vote of confidence in the commercial potential of the Beetaloo gas play.

KEFI has announced that it is raising c £10.6m by issuing c 1.9bn shares at a price of 0.55p. The full raise is in five parts: a firm placing, a retail offer, a conditional placing, a conditional subscription and a conditional issue. The first two have now been completed, raising £5.4m (gross) via the issue of 988.5m shares. The remaining three require shareholder approval from a general meeting on 2 January. Assuming this to be the case, they will raise a combined £5.1m (gross) via the issue of a further 933.2m shares.

• What you need to know: • Nicola announced an operational and exploration update on its 2024 drill program.
• • NIM made a deposit for a Notice of Work and Reclamation Program at the Dominion Creek Project, which is an important milestone in obtaining the final permit for a bulk sample in 2025.
• • NIM completed a flow-through private placement of 1.6M shares at $0.335/share.

• Back on the 15th August, lithium play Latin Resources (LRS AU) entered into a Scheme with Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU). PLS offered 0.07 new PLS shares for every LRS share.
• The Scheme Booklet was slightly delayed to reflect Pilbara’s recently adjusted FY25 guidance – nothing deal/project related.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 16th Jan. Expected implementation on the 4th Feb. The IE (BDO) says fair & reasonable.

• Newjf’s Yuan Xunjun and Guo Xiaohong are both lawyers. They should be more familiar with the Pre-Condition requirements. Newjf has obtained SAMR clearance and we think Newjf will fulfill Pre-Conditions.
• Bi Hua and Hong Gang’s “new initiative” based on Nov.28 announcement may not necessarily succeed, since Newjf has a lot of room for rebuttal here and its Offer is attractive.
• Greatview’s chairman and Cloudview are in discussions with financial advisers to make a counterbid.Considering that this may be a “noise”,we recommend prioritizing Newjf’s Offer before any higher Offer from Greatview.

• On 29 November, the Latin Resources (LRS AU) IE considered Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)’s all-scrip offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.07 PLS share per LRS share. 
• The key conditions are LRS shareholder and Brazilian regulatory approvals. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake, and low retail ownership lowers the headcount test risk.
• An attractive offer and the lack of a competing bidder suggest a done deal. At the last close, for the 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.9%/18.8%.

• WTI futures dropped 4.6% for the week ending 29/Nov, driven by easing Middle East tensions and higher US gasoline and distillate inventories.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.82 from 0.87 (22/Nov) last week, as call volume fell by 17.9% WoW and put volume dropped by 22.4%.  
• WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.88 from 0.86 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 1.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.5%.

• SGX IO Futures closed USD 4.17/ton higher for the week ending on 29/Nov. It traded in a range of USD 5.05/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
• Chinese portside inventories fell 1.5% to 148.5M tons for the week ending 29/Nov. China’s manufacturing PMI for November came in at 50.3, beating analyst expectations of 50.2.
• Seasonally strong demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, improving steelmaker conditions, stimulus hopes, and robust PMI signal continued iron ore price gains.

• US natural gas prices rose 7.5% for the week ending 29/Nov, driven by forecasts of colder weather, rising US LNG exports, and higher heating demand.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.47 from 1.14 (22/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 56.1% WoW, while call volumes decreased by 66%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI fell by 14.4% WoW, while put OI decreased by 15.8%.

• Occidental’s Q3 revenue edged up by 0.2% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%. Net profit fell by 16.6% YoY, but EPS beat estimates by 34.8%.
• Total production increased 15.7% YoY, driven by strong growth in the Permian and Rockies, while US production surged 19% YoY, achieving its highest-ever quarterly output.
• Long-Term debt reduced to USD 25.46 billion, down USD 4 billion, reaching nearly 90% of the company’s near-term debt reduction target of USD 4.5 billion.

• LVG announced a term sheet including a forward purchase agreement of 7,000oz of gold plus an offtake agreement.
• With permits secured last month, today’s announcement derisks the project development from a financing perspective.
• The second tranche of the financing involving Taifa Group is expected to close within the next few weeks and will provide additional funding (~$3.8M) to LVG, further derisking it from a capital standpoint.

• The Tariki-5A well has encountered a gas column of at least 8 metres out of a gross Tariki sand of ~60 m.
• An additional column of a further 8 to 12 m may be confirmed upon completion of log analyses.
• This is above company expectations.

• TM received a term sheet for the purchase of its ownership of the Kombat Mine for a consideration in the range of US$30-50M.
• The all-cash transaction is at the asset level, therefore removing a significant portion of TM’s debt, allowing them to realize the entire consideration.
• Trigon also announced its Q2/25 operating and financial results, reporting weaker than expected financials compared to Q1, returning to a negative EBITDA position.

• De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price. 
• The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable. 
• The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.

• The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December. 
• By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks. 
• Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.

• In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2025.
• These seven potential inclusion candidates are up on average 8.9% from end of Sept 2024 to 2 December 2024 versus KOSPI which is down 5.4% in the same period. 
• The potential additions include IPOs in 2024 such as HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS), and Sanil Electric (062040 KS). 

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
• For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
• The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.

• Hello, Welcome to the third edition of the Mikro Kap Wathclist, a series in which I go deeper into unique opportunities from my watchlist that, IMO, are worth monitoring closely.
• This way, you can act decisively when the moment comes, rather than spending weeks on initial research.
• These kinds of stocks would probably be a part of my portfolio if I were older, more diversified, or both.

• ADNOC International (XRG) secured a controlling 69.94% stake in Covestro after the initial acceptance period, surpassing the 50% plus one share threshold.
• Regulatory Approvals Pending: The transaction awaits merger control, foreign investment, and EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation clearances, with finalization expected in H2 2025 (usual timeline for deal in the chemical industry).
• Remaining shareholders can tender their shares during the additional acceptance period; squeeze-out is likely. Recommendation is tender.

• OCI N.V.’s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.
• Currency Exchange International announced a new 5% share buyback authorization, with previous buyback pace remaining slow.
• Grifols’ potential reverse arbitrage trade involves long Class A shares, short Class B shares, amid merger considerations.

• Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
• The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
• The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

• Following the election of Donald Trump, gold and precious metals fell sharply alongside the mining equities.
• Despite the shock drop, the metals began a reassuring rebound in the back half of the month.
• Mining equities performed negatively with the GDX down 6.7%, GDXJ down 7.4%, SIL down 6.0%, and COPX down 2.4%.

• Vaalco’s asset portfolio combines a mix of long- and short- cycle growth opportunities in every country in which it operates.
• Management sequences the capital investment cycles to ensure the company commits capital to projects that have been sufficiently derisked to avoid overcommitting and with an eye to shortening the time from investment to production.
• Its budgeting process is anchored by the goal of supporting a sustainable dividend