Energy & Materials Sector

• For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco’s trading at extreme levels, in both “set-up” and “unwind” territory.
• Preceding the chart/table-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Context: The Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal (SGM AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Expand Energy’s latest quarterly results highlight both positive strides and challenges within the company’s operations and strategic outlook.
• The company has pursued capital efficiency, managing to reduce costs significantly while increasing production, particularly in the Haynesville region.
• Expand Energy has demonstrated an impressive cost reduction in well expenses by over 25% and outperformed peers with year-to-date costs 30% lower, thanks to optimized development and completion designs.

• Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NYSE American: OPTT) delivers an extensive range of ocean-intelligence solutions using advanced autonomous systems and specialized software. 
• The company has transformed from a wave energy developer into an integrated provider of ocean intelligence solutions, combining PowerBuoy® persistent power stations, Wave Adaptive Modular Vessel (WAM-V®) unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), and the AI-capable Merrows™ command and control system.
• This integrated approach addresses critical gaps in maritime domain awareness for defense, offshore energy, and ocean research markets in the US as well as overseas.

• Crude oil futures were lower Wednesday but benchmarks continued to trade in the narrow range in place since last week.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.54/b (2135 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $64.44/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.62/b against a previous close of $60.66/b.
• The market has been looking for direction since Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting when the eight members taking part in voluntary cuts added another 137,0000 bpd to quotas in December, although countered this with a pause on any further increases in Q1.

• D3 Energy Limited (ASX:D3E) continues to represent a compelling investment case as a leveraged play on natural gas and helium projects in South Africa.
• The association of natural gas with globally significant helium concentrations gives the company a material point of differentiation compared to its listed upstream peers.
• D3E has delivered significantly positive results through its first stage drilling and testing activity, independent certification of initial reserves and resources, and a Production Right Area (PRA) application that could see the company at a project sanction stage by end-2026.

• Major Drilling is a global leader in specialized contract drilling for the mining industry, strategically positioned to benefit from increased exploration budgets, particularly for metals essential to the energy transition.
• The company’s extensive experience, modern fleet, and focus on specialized, complex drilling projects create a competitive advantage and support relationships with major mining companies.
• Financial performance is inherently tied to the cyclical nature of the mining industry and commodity prices, with recent results showing margin pressure despite long-term revenue growth.

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• Cardinal Resources was a single-asset gold development company whose primary value was derived from its 100%-owned Namdini Gold Project in Ghana, a large-scale, long-life asset.
• In 2020, the company became the subject of a prolonged and competitive bidding war, primarily between Russia’s Nordgold and China’s Shandong Gold, which significantly drove up its valuation and highlighted the strategic appeal of the Namdini project.
• The company was ultimately acquired by Shandong Gold Mining (HongKong) Co., Limited in a transaction that concluded in early 2021, leading to the delisting of Cardinal Resources from the ASX and TSX in February 2021.

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bp reported Q325 underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $2.2bn (Q225: $2.4bn), with stronger operating performance partly offset by a higher tax rate (due to regional profit mix changes). Operating cash flow rose to $7.8bn from $6.3bn, supported by a working capital release of around $0.9bn compared to a $1.4bn build last quarter. Net debt remained stable at $26.1bn, despite redeeming $1.2bn in hybrid bonds. The dividend was maintained at 8.32c per share, and bp announced a further $0.75bn share buyback to be completed before the Q4 results. Capital expenditure of $3.4bn was consistent with FY25 guidance of around $14.5bn.

• POSCO is shifting from cyclical steel to sustainable, high-margin materials and hydrogen technologies.
• Earnings recovery and RBM scale-up underpin a 15–35% re-rating potential by FY27.
• Strong asset base, improving margins, and carbon-neutral roadmap limit downside risk.

• Challenger Energy Group’s merger with Sintana Energy offers a 15% actionable spread, with easy hedging options via Sintana borrow.
• WonderFi Technologies’ acquisition by Robinhood awaits Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization consent, with a buyout expected in H2 2025.
• Falcon Oil & Gas asset sale to TBN involves a fluctuating spread of 30%-50%, with minimal risk of deal collapse.

• Iron ore futures slipped as China’s steel output fell for the fifth consecutive week, with weak demand and rising inventories weighing on sentiment.
• Managed money participants trimmed their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling profit-taking and a more cautious market stance.
• The DCE-SGX spread is gaining momentum, with technical indicators hinting at a sustained near-term widening trend.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi
• UST yields climbed 3-4 bps across the curve yesterday, amid heightened corporate supply after Alphabet Inc issued USD 25 bn of USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST rose 3 bps each to 3.61% and 4.11%, respectively.
• Equities climbed, supported by tech stocks after Amazon’s Cloud unit inked a USD 38 bn deal with OpenAI. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to 6,852, while the Nasdaq grew 0.5% to 23,835.

• Production slips 12.8% amid lacklustre smallholder involvement  
• Imports rebound MoM, exports edge up on steady China demand  
• Glove exports slip in value to RM 1.2 billion, down 7.7% from July  

• Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.
• Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.
• Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

Key points (machine generated)

• Enerflex derives 70% of its earnings from contracted leases and maintenance, with a strong position in a volatile sector.
• The company is currently undervalued at around 4x EBITDA and 7x free cash flow, with a fair value estimated at $13 per share.
• Analysts expect a positive re-rating of Enerflex shares as it beats estimates and shows business stability.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Comstock, Inc. (LODE) is a Nevada-based renewable and sustainable metals company with additional investments in renewable fuels, mineral properties, and real estate. 
• Its high-volume solar panel recycling technology diverts end-of-life solar panels from landfills and recycles 100% of the commodities that go into them like silver, aluminum, and other valuable and scarce resources. 
• LODE’s largest single investment is Bioleum Corp., which develops an Oklahoma-based project to convert waste streams and energy crops like woody biomass into ultra-low carbon fuels like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

• US base oils demand likely to weaken over coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in requirements and expected rise in supply.
• US Group II domestic price-premium to export prices stay in narrow range at time of year when it typically widens.
• Steady domestic price-premium points to more balanced fundamentals, curbs pressure on any imminent adjustment in those domestic prices.

• On November 1, 2025, DuPont (NYSE: DD) completed the separation of its Electronics business as Qnity Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: Q), into a separate public company.
• Regular-Way trading commenced on November 3, 2025.DD gained 2.97%, while Q lost -1.02% on the first day of regular way trading.
• On an overall basis, DD (consolidated) gained 5.91% since the spin-off announcement on May 22, 2024, underperforming S&P 500 which gained 29.1% during the same period.

• Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
• The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect 11 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index during this index review based on the latest available data. US$11bn total flows.

• CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a new energy materials company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$700 million.     
• CNGR ranked first globally in 2024 in terms of sales value for all cathode active material precursors (pCAM) products, with a market share of 21.8%.
• The fundamentals are solid, with good growth, a relatively stable margin profile, declining cash burn, manageable leverage, and an undemanding valuation. 

• Riley’s solid cash flow profile provides management with the flexibility to navigate the current commodity price environment. 
• Management’s latest (August 6, 2025) FY25 total capital spending plan totaled $113-146 million, which included $84-100 million of upstream capex and $29-46 million of midstream capex.
• An additional $15-18 million investment is planned in the company’s power joint venture. 

• Electra Battery Materials is strategically positioned to become a key player in the North American electric vehicle (EV) supply chain by establishing the continent’s first cobalt sulfate refinery.
• The company’s integrated battery materials park concept, which includes cobalt refining, battery recycling, and potential nickel sulfate production, offers a localized and environmentally sustainable solution, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly China’s dominance in the sector.
• Strong government support from both Canada and the U.S., coupled with a key offtake agreement with LG Energy Solution, provides a solid foundation for the company’s growth, though execution risks and market volatility remain key considerations.

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• Southern Copper Corporation’s third quarter and nine-month results for 2025 present a nuanced picture of the company’s financial and operational status.
• The company marked notable achievements with record net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income for the quarter, underscoring effective strategic execution and favorable market conditions.
• The boosts in these financials were substantially driven by increased production of by-products like zinc, silver, and molybdenum, and elevated metal prices.

• This morning, SPA announced assay results for its first two drill holes as part of its 9,000-10,000m fall drill program.
• The results confirm strong grades over wide intervals within the proposed pit (in areas previously modeled as lower-grade and/or waste), including 0.77 g/t Au over 112m and 0.64 g/t over 102m.
• Drilling supports advancement toward a 2027 construction decision, building on a PEA with $1.03B NPV5% and 18% IRR at US$2,450/oz.

• Noble Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 earnings report presents a mixed picture for investors, with some positive developments and notable challenges on the horizon.
• The company generated an adjusted EBITDA of $254 million and a free cash flow of $139 million, which was bolstered by net disposal proceeds of $87 million.
• This financial performance underscores Noble’s operational efficiency, as highlighted by the company’s successful execution in technically demanding deepwater drilling operations.

• Ecolab’s third-quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of achievements and challenges, underscoring the company’s maneuvering through a fluctuating global economic environment.
• On the positive side, Ecolab reported double-digit earnings growth, buoyed by increased pricing strategies and a 1% increase in volumes.
• This growth momentum was particularly pronounced in its high-performing segments like Pest Elimination, Life Sciences, Global High-Tech, and Ecolab Digital, which all saw double-digit organic growth.

• Steady operations despite price softness; volumes up 8% YoY, debt down ₹3,400 Cr, margins stable around 10%.
• Capex on track; IISCO ₹33,000 Cr expansion progressing, funded via internal accruals and moderate leverage.
• Valuation reasonable; trades at ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~US$560/t EV/Ton with Positive Bias on margin recovery and balance-sheet strength.

• Context: TheStanmore Resources (SMR AU) vs. Champion Iron (CIA AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Stanmore Resources (SMR AU) and short Champion Iron (CIA AU) targets a 9% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Crude futures moved higher in late-Friday trading after this week’s US-China talks were met with a muted response from oil markets, while investors continued to monitor Russian sanctions and the likely outcome of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
• Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.07/b (2020 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.37/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.87/b against a previous close of $60.57/b.
• The ‘truce’ between Beijing and Washington was seen as enough to keep global trade ticking over, but in the absence of a long-term solution, analysts said markets are likely to be kept on edge.

• Jetstream #3 has intersected two gas-bearing intervals at ~523 meters and 621 meters depth, with bottom-hole pressure estimated at ~960 psi at 661 meters.
• For comparison, Jetstream #1 and #2 recorded bottom-hole pressures of just 185–205 psi.
• Gas bubbling was observed in the drilling mud returns at surface during pipe connections, indicating active gas influx from the formation during drilling.

• Avery Dennison reported a solid third quarter with earnings up 2% year-over-year, marginally surpassing midpoint expectations.
• The company demonstrated resilience in navigating ongoing trade policy changes by executing strategic operational adjustments and select pricing surcharges to mitigate cost increases.
• Materials Group achieved margin expansion, although modest revenue declines were observed in high-value categories, attributed primarily to inventory management adjustments by some customers.

• Halliburton Company reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reflecting both edges of volatility in the current global oil and gas market.
• The company posted a revenue of $5.6 billion, a 2% increase from the previous quarter.
• However, this performance is set against a slightly complex backdrop of contrasting conditions across North America and international markets.

• Nucor Corporation recently held its third quarter 2025 earnings call, revealing a mixed bag of results wrapped around impressive performance and strategic shifts.
• Nucor reported an EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.63, surpassing their previous guidance due to higher-than-expected shipments and favorable corporate adjustments.
• The company maintained a strong capital management stance, investing $807 million into growth projects nearing completion and returning $230 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

• In the recent earnings results for the third quarter of 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. reported a solid performance, highlighted by a noticeable increase in both EBITDA and adjusted EPS, which grew by 6% and 16% year-on-year respectively.
• The company noted particular strengths in its Natural Gas segment, attributed to the heightened demand for LNG and increased power generation needs.
• Kinder Morgan outlined expectations to exceed its full-year budget, bolstered by the Outrigger acquisition, despite certain challenges like lower-than-anticipated D3 RIN prices and RNG volumes.

• Matador Resources Company has reported its third-quarter 2025 results, marking another quarter of considerable achievements including a dividend increase and operational efficiencies.
• The company’s leadership highlighted several key aspects impacting performance and strategy.
• Starting with positives, Matador has demonstrated significant operational efficiency, especially in its drilling and completions activities.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Uranium takes centre stage, while precious metals remain in a corrective phase
• Xi and Trump finally have their sit-down – important details behind the headlines

• POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by early 2026.
• Local media have mentioned that POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won (US700 million) to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by 2026.
• Overall, we believe that a potential US$700 million investment in Cleveland-Cliffs for about 10% stake in the company could have a positive impact on POSCO.

• Reliance Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing a mixed performance in a challenging market environment.
• The company continued to demonstrate resilience with its adaptable business model and solid operational execution, achieving a record in tons sold and increasing U.S. market share from 14.5% in 2023 to 17.1%.
• This was attributed to Reliance’s strategic focus on customer service, inventory management, and broad processing capabilities, allowing it to outperform the industry despite declining shipment trends.

• Sonoco Products Company reported a strong third quarter in 2025, showcasing record performance despite market challenges.
• The company experienced substantial growth in both top-line and bottom-line figures.
• Net sales increased by 57%, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 37%, resulting in a record-high EBITDA margin of 18.1%.

• Element Solutions, Inc. presented a mixed set of results in their Q2 2025 financials, characterized by both significant growth in specific segments and persistent challenges in others.
• Key highlights from their conference call can be dissected into various positives and factors of concern surrounding the company’s operations and projected outlook.
• Starting with the positives, Element Solutions demonstrated robust performance in their electronics business, particularly within the assembly and wafer-level packaging products.

• LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution. 
• This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
• If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

• There is an end of a lock-up period for 55.3 million shares (33% of outstanding shares) for SK Innovation (096770 KS) starting 20 November 2025.
• This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
• SK Innovation is currently trading at relatively high valuation multiples. We remain Bearish on SK Innovation.

• Henry Hub prices are rising ahead of a colder U.S. winter, but stronger domestic production and expanding LNG exports could temper the pace of seasonal gains.
• Global LNG capacity is set to soar by 60% by 2030, raising the risk of a supply glut that could depress international gas prices and challenge U.S. competitiveness.
• While global LNG oversupply may pressure prices abroad, surging AI-driven electricity demand and slower renewable deployment could lift domestic gas consumption and keep prices resilient.

• Export volumes fall, but revenues hold firm on higher prices  
• Domestic latex consumption surges 89%, reshaping local demand base  
• Chinese investments deepen industrial linkages and energy synergy

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
• In our prior Int’l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
• Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well — add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.

• 88 Energy is a high-risk, high-reward oil and gas exploration company with a primary focus on large-scale, early-stage projects in the politically stable and well-developed hydrocarbon province of Alaska’s North Slope.
• The company’s strategy centers on identifying and de-risking significant prospective resources and then farming out interests to larger partners to fund capital-intensive drilling and development, thereby minimizing shareholder dilution and financial risk.
• Recent divestment from production assets in Texas has sharpened the company’s focus on its core Alaskan exploration portfolio (Projects Phoenix and Leonis) and a new frontier opportunity in Namibia, positioning it as a pure-play exploration entity with significant potential upside contingent on drilling success.

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• DuPont will separate its Electronics unit as Qnity Electronics Inc. on Nov 1, 2025, creating two focused platforms – a high-growth semiconductor materials business and a steadier diverfied industrial company
• Qnity launches with ~$4.3B sales, ~29% margins, strong semiconductor exposure but higher leverage and cyclicality
• We value Qnity at $106/share (17.2× FY26E EBITDA) and DuPont (ex-Qnity) at $47.5/share (13.0× FY26E EBITDA).

• CNMC approval with commitments de-risks the regulatory leg, shifting focus to shareholder acceptance and the Ministry’s decision; the spread has compressed but still offers short-dated, event-driven upside.
• Ercros’s weak H1 performance and cyclical trough distort multiples; the €3.505 offer equates to ~9x EBITDA today but nearer 6× on normalized levels, consistent with control transaction benchmarks.
• Base-Case IRR exceeds 100% annualized if settled by December; downside anchored by €2.56 break price, while any price bump toward €4.40 adds optionality without being part of the base case.

• Yunnan Yuntianhua is a leading state-owned enterprise in China’s fertilizer and chemical sector, possessing significant competitive advantages through its vertical integration and access to vast phosphate rock reserves in Yunnan province.
• The company demonstrates strong financial performance with robust cash flow generation and an attractive dividend yield, though its revenue and earnings are subject to the cyclical nature of commodity markets.
• Future growth is anticipated to be driven by strategic expansion into new energy materials, such as iron phosphate, and a continued focus on high-value fine chemical products, alongside strengthening its market position in Southeast Asia.

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bp has provided an update on its hydrocarbon discovery at the Bumerangue block in the pre-salt Santos Basin, offshore Brazil. While the find was first reported in August, yesterday’s confirmation of a c 1,000-metre gross hydrocarbon column, comprising around 100 metres of oil and 900 metres of liquids-rich gas condensate, adds clarity on scale and composition. Liquids are present across the full column. bp reports high-quality rock properties and, significantly, indicates that it believes that the carbon dioxide content in the reservoir can be managed. Although still at an early stage of evaluation, visible progress at Bumerangue is encouraging given its potential scale and its emerging significance within bp’s upstream growth pipeline.

• Midwest Ltd’s recent ₹451 crore IPO (₹250 crore fresh issue) funds quartz capacity expansion, debt reduction, and entry into heavy-mineral sands for long-term growth.
• The company is evolving from a granite exporter to a diversified clean-materials supplier, scaling quartz and HMS aligned with India’s solar and semiconductor build-out.
• Strong promoter alignment, integrated operations, and disciplined execution support margin expansion and a positive long-term stance.

• Strong recovery: Q2 FY26 volumes up 23% YoY; margins steady at 38%, confirming operational strength.
• Growth visibility: Expansion, slurry pipeline, and pellet plants drive FY26–27 capacity growth.
• Deep-Value play: Trades at 10× P/E, 5× EV/EBITDA—half peer valuations, 5% dividend yield.

• Q2 FY26 saw Reliance Industries deliver robust, broad-based growth led by Consumer and Digital segments, concurrent with accelerated deployment of AI infrastructure and Green Energy assets.
• The consumer-facing businesses now contribute nearly 50% of Group EBITDA, structurally de-risking the conglomerate from O2C volatility while cementing its positioning for India’s twin tailwinds: Digital Transformation and Energy Transition.
• RIL’s aggressive, integrated strategy across AI and New Energy warrants a closer look at how these massive long-cycle projects are set to redefine the Group’s fundamental profile over the years.

• What you need to know: • DNG announced an update today on its expansion plans in Senegal, Ecuador, and Ghana.
• • In Senegal, the construction of its 50tpd pilot plant remains on schedule with the first shipments of equipment expected to be on site in mid-November.
• • DNG continues to complete early-stage work in Ecuador and Ghana, setting up the Company well to execute on its bold growth plans.

• Uni-Fuels (NASDAQ: UFG) is a fast-growing global provider of marine fuels solutions, helping shipping companies optimize fuel procurement across various international markets and time zones.
• The company currently operates in Singapore, Dubai, Shanghai and Seoul and plans to expand globally including new offices in Asia, Europe and the Americas.
• The company went public in January 2025 raising $9.7 million in gross proceeds including February overallotment.

• Alcoa Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 performance showcased a nuanced mix of operational strength and strategic undertakings amidst significant external and internal challenges.
• The company reported a decrease in revenue by 1% to $3 billion, attributed primarily to lower volumes and prices in the Alumina segment and unfavorable currency impacts, despite an increase in the Aluminum segment’s revenue due to higher metal prices.
• A noteworthy aspect of this quarter was the permanent closure of Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery and the sale of its interest in the Ma’aden joint venture, which yielded a notable financial gain offset by restructuring charges.

• MIND Technology has successfully pivoted to a pure-play marine technology company, focusing on the exploration, survey, and defense markets. This strategic shift has resulted in a return to profitability and a strengthened, debt-free balance sheet.
• The company is well-positioned to capitalize on favorable long-term industry tailwinds, including increased investment in offshore energy (both traditional and renewable), rising demand for maritime security and defense solutions, and the growing need for subsea mapping and survey technologies.
• Despite a significant operational and financial turnaround, the company’s stock appears to be undervalued relative to its peers in the marine technology sector, presenting a potential investment opportunity as the market recognizes its improved fundamentals and growth prospects.

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• TechnipFMC recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing both strengths and areas of potential concern.
• With a total revenue of $2.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $531 million, reflecting a margin of 20.1% excluding foreign exchange impacts, the company experienced a robust quarter.
• Free cash flow was notably strong at $448 million, facilitating $271 million in shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.

• Eni’s third quarter 2025 results demonstrate a robust execution of its strategic initiatives, reflecting a significant enhancement in its operational and financial performance across multiple business segments.
• A year-on-year production growth of 8.5% underscores the company’s focus on its upstream operations, alongside developments in emerging energy sectors.
• Key achievements include the successful commencement of production in Azule Energy’s Agogo West Hub in Angola and significant progress in several satellite start-ups, contributing to a notable production increase.

• Revenue for FY03/24 was JPY238.2bn (-0.9% YoY), with operating profit at JPY15.3bn (+84.3% YoY).
• The company revised its FY03/26 earnings forecast, increasing revenue to JPY517.0bn and operating profit to JPY30.0bn.
• Interim and year-end dividends per share for FY03/26 were increased to JPY60.0, totaling JPY120.0 per share.

• A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.
• We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices. 
• This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions. 

• HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
• Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
• Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.

• After an extraordinary run, SLV’s pullback appears orderly as implied volatility cools yet remains high by historical standards.
• We examine how this bull market in Silver compares with previous bull market spanning 50 years.
• We also look at market participation to identify what’s been driving the recent price action.

• Crude oil futures were rowing back Tuesday, with OPEC+ set to further raise output and uncertainty over sanctions enforcement.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.28/b (2020 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $65.62/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.01/b against a previous close of $61.31/b.
• But reports that OPEC+ will go ahead with a ninth consecutive production hike were seen limiting further price upside for now.

• Shares in Sandfire Resources hold their ground following first quarter results showing progress at Motheo and Matsa, while a further growth option awaits.
• -Sandfire Resources’ FY26 guidance retained for production, costs, and opex post September quarterly -Growth option via the Black Butte Copper Project in the US -Prospects for a dividend as Jarden forecasts year-end net cash -Analysts debate valuation ‘premium’

• Freeport-McMoRan reported a quarter characterized by strong operational performance, continued strategic progress, and evolving global market dynamics.
• The company benefited from favorable copper pricing, with COMEX and LME levels at multi-year highs, while achieving meaningful milestones in its Indonesian operations and advancing U.S. production initiatives.
• Quarterly EBITDA reached approximately $3.2 billion, and operating cash flow stood at $2.2 billion, driven by copper realizations exceeding $4.50 per pound and sales volumes surpassing production due to reduced inventories in Indonesia.

• Newmont Corporation delivered a solid financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating both resilience and adaptability amidst global economic shifts.
• Positively, the company achieved a record $1.6 billion in cash flow, with the cumulative year-to-date free cash flow reaching an all-time high of $4.5 billion—despite having one quarter still to contribute.
• This achievement was bolstered by robust improvements in cost discipline, resulting in an improvement in their 2025 guidance for several cost metrics.

• Accsys Tech 61.5p £148.9m (AXS.L) The high performance and sustainable wood building materials, has agreed new debt financing facilities of EUR5m, provided on an equal basis by ABN AMRO and HSBC.
• The pricing terms on the Facilities are improved, together with lower quarterly capital repayments compared to the current EUR52.1m facility which was due to mature in September 2027.
• The strategic re-financing strengthens the capital structure and the CEO states the Group is positioned to execute the FOCUS strategy and growth plans with greater confidence and resilience. 

• What you need to know: • Rio2 reported that construction at Fenix Gold reached 63% in Q3, showing strong momentum as it remains on schedule and on budget for first gold in January 2026.
• • Progress accelerated across key areas, including leach pad extensions, ADR plant work, and ore stacking, positioning the project for commissioning.
• • With gold prices rising dramatically, Rio2 is nearing a key inflection point as it transitions to production and begins generating heavy cashflows.

• After a 9 weeks rally, Gold (GOLD COMDTY) started to pullback, last week, and the pullback continued into this week.
• Some market watchers argue US retail investors piled into Gold ETFs following the Fed’s late-August shift to rate cuts, potentially fueling the metal’s recent upside exhaustion.
• If Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was fueled by retail buying and is now correcting, retail investors will likely chase the dip—a textbook example of herd behavior, potentially driving a rebound.

• US sanctions now target all four of Russia’s largest oil companies, affecting 70% of production and exports
• EU also imposes new sanctions on Russia’s energy revenues
• Russia shifts to alternative currencies for oil trade to evade US dollar restrictions, leading to higher transaction costs and reputational risks

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• The EMC spin-off aims to surface hidden asset value by separating AREC’s high-growth battery-recycling unit, allowing EMC to attract a pure-play electrification multiple and investors clearer sum-of-the-parts visibility.
• The separation positions AREC as an asset-light critical-materials holding company, retaining minority stakes in ReElement, Novusterra, and Royalty Management while enabling EMC to independently pursue commercialization and partnerships.
• EMC gains dedicated access to growth capital and strategic investors, while AREC enhances financial optionality and valuation clarity across its diversified clean-energy and infrastructure holdings.

• Epigral is strategically shifting its business mix towards higher-margin derivatives and specialty chemicals, which constituted 56% of revenue in H1 FY25, up from 25% in FY22. This transition is expected to enhance profitability and provide more stable growth.
• The company is in a significant capital expenditure phase, aiming to double its production capacity for CPVC Resin and Epichlorohydrin. These expansions position Epigral to capitalize on growing domestic and international demand, driven by initiatives like ‘Make in India’.
• While demonstrating strong top-line growth, the company faces risks associated with the cyclical nature of the chemical industry, volatility in raw material prices, and execution risks related to its large-scale expansion projects.

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• Crude oil futures were moving sideways Monday amid uncertainty around trade talks and enforcement of Russian sanctions.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at 65.67/b (1950 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $65.94/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.34/b against a previous close of $61.50/b.
• Benchmarks had opened Monday higher before giving up ground that was recovered to leave the market flat from Friday.

• Algoma Steel is undertaking a transformative, high-risk, high-reward strategic shift from traditional blast furnace steelmaking to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology. This C$825-C$875 million project is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70% and increase production capacity, positioning Algoma as a potential leader in ‘green steel’.
• The company’s financial performance has been highly volatile, swinging from substantial profitability in fiscal 2022 (net income of C$857.7M) to significant losses in fiscal 2024 (net loss of C$222.7M). This reflects the cyclical nature of the steel industry, fluctuating commodity prices, and operational challenges.
• Algoma faces considerable market headwinds, including intense competition from imports in the Canadian market and the constant threat of trade protectionism, such as U.S. tariffs, which can dramatically impact its export-oriented business. The success of its EAF transition and ability to navigate these external pressures will be critical to its future.

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• In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 
• Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
• FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 

• US base oils demand likely to stay muted amid expectations of waning end-user consumption and improving supply in coming weeks.
• US base oils demand typically falls in month of November from October.
• Prospect of slowdown in demand would coincide with rise in supply following expected completion of plant-maintenance in H1 Nov 2025.

• The US-Australia critical minerals investment agreement has driven lithium miner Pilbara Minerals’ share price on sentiment, well above fundamentals, on most assessments.
• US-Australia critical minerals deal sends miner share prices surging Pilbara Minerals posts solid September quarter beat Lithium prices remain below new production threshold Most brokers see Pilbara Minerals as overvalued

• What you need to know: • Getchell Gold is the 100% owner of the Fondaway Canyon Gold Project in Nevada, which hosts a 2.3Moz resource (Indicated & Inferred) and a robust PEA outlining a 10.5-year mine life, published in Q1/25.
• • The PEA defined an after-tax base case NPV10% of $474M, an IRR of 47% (at just $2,250/oz Au) and at a low capex of just $227M.
• • At $3,300/oz Au, the NPV10% rises dramatically to ~$1B (at a conservative 10% discount rate).

• On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
• 2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25. 
• They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn). 

• Last week, London-based activist Palliser Capital tapped LG Chem (051910 KS) to remedy its NAV market discount. Palliser also said it now holds a little over 1% in LG Chem.
• LG Chem’s large NAV discount is well known. It has been present since ~82%-held LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) was listed in January 2022. 
• An obvious solution is to pare down the LGES stake, and buy back shares. Yet the discount remains as the market views management as being (stubbornly) set in their ways.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• CSI All Share Semiconductors Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
• In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect up to four ADDs and two DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index during this index review event based on the latest available data. Flows are small.

• Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.
• There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lag
• While not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.

• Crude prices were mixed Friday, but consolidated the sharp rally driven by new US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, as both benchmarks headed for their biggest weekly gain since June.
• Front-month December ICE Brent was up to $66.01/b at 2011 BST, while December NYMEX WTI dipped slightly to $61.58/b , after jumping more than 5% on Thursday.
• The pullback followed Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for roughly half of Russia’s crude output and exports.

• Global monetary shifts and diversification from the U.S. dollar are creating a favorable environment for gold, supported by central bank activity and strong physical demand.
• The market is showing signs of declining volatility after a recent price drop, suggesting an opportune moment for strategic options trading.
• Careful consideration of resistance levels and downside risks is key to optimizing this particular market strategy.

• Turbulent macro backdrop with concerns over US-China trade relations and credit quality affecting global economy and metals demand
• Mixed sentiments on copper market balances for next year, with varying views on supply from DRC and Chinese demand
• Aluminium narrative looking positive with China’s X supply growth and debate on market balances centered around capacity ramp up from Indonesia

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I had a chance to talk to the management team from High Arctic Overseas this week, and I came away encouraged.

The stock is trading at a negative enterprise value, but we are seeing signs of stability in the business and a potential upward inflection.

The management team is entrepreneurial and working to cut its cash burn down to zero. 

• Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye.
• The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the face tariffs. This is somewhat surprising to me.
• This week was relatively quiet on the open-recommendations front, but I expect the news flow to pick up in the coming weeks as earnings season gets underway