Event-Driven

In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion

Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.

Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Proposed Deal Details: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share offer for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium per share. Post-merger, BMPS shareholders would own 40% of the combined entity.
Strategic Rationale: The merger aims to create a diversified financial powerhouse, achieving €700M in annual synergies and accelerating BMPS’s €2.9B deferred tax asset utilization for shareholder value creation.
Challenges and Risks: Insufficient premium, integration complexities, and shareholder dilution concerns cast doubt on deal success, alongside Mediobanca’s superior growth prospects and market positioning.

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Jan 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD

On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital’s terms.
Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

By Dimitris Ioannidis

MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US).
United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%.
Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill

A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote

The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer.
The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.
The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake’s stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain’s strong housing demand and rising property prices.
Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as “equitable price”. Long.

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Jan 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

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Jan 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening
Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch
Korea Zinc: An Important Legal Decision to Disallow Appointment of Directors Using Cumulative Voting
Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor’s New Clothes?
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows
Sanil Electric US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Tempting to Book 2x Gains in Six Months
Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening

The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition.
The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive.
Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden’s derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.

Korea Zinc: An Important Legal Decision to Disallow Appointment of Directors Using Cumulative Voting

On 21 January, there was an important legal court decision to disallow the appointment of directors using the cumulative voting system at the Korea Zinc’s EGM on 23 January.
This legal decision is likely to favor MBK/Young Poong alliance in the control of Korea Zinc. The market increasingly favors the likelihood of MBK/Young Poong alliance winning this proxy battle.
Therefore, the chance of a further M&A battle has been reduced which is likely to further decline in the share price of Korea Zinc.

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor’s New Clothes?

Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.
Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.
Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.

Sanil Electric US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Tempting to Book 2x Gains in Six Months

By Clarence Chu

Sanil Electric (062040 KS) listed in Korea on 29th July 2024 after raising US$193m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 29th Jan 2025.
Sanil Electric is a specialized company that manufactures and sells reactors, transformers, railway vehicle parts, and switchboards. As an industrial transformer manufacturer, the company mainly manufactures power and distribution transformers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

By Harry Kalfas

The merger between Omnicom Group (OMC US) and Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) aims to create a marketing powerhouse with $25.6 billion in revenue and $750 million in annual synergies.
Deal spread narrowed due to Omnicom’s price drop, signalling market caution over post-merger performance.
The merger’s close, expected in 2025, will impact major US indices on an intra-quarter basis.

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Jan 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer
Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square

SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air

An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.

By John Ley

Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels.
Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron

Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS) announced its plan to split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron (a newly established company).
Existing shareholders will receive shares of the two companies in equal proportions according to the split ratio which is 32.5% for Hana Semiconductor Holdings and 67.5% for Hana Micron.
We remain negative on Hana Micron. The valuation of the company remains stretched. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the company’s new plan to split into two different companies.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) disclosed a conditional takeover offer from City Developments (CIT SP) at NZ$2.25, a 25.0% premium to the undisturbed price of NZ$1.80 (17 January).
The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition, which will be an issue as the offer is materially below NTA on a historical cost and market-value-based approach.
CDL has three options to address shareholder resistance: lower the minimum acceptance threshold, increase the offer price, or continue extending the close.

Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Astera Labs (ALAB US) is expected to migrate from Small-cap to Standard at the February 2025 review as its price has soared ~100% since the last review.
The security’s free float is forecasted to increase from 25% to 70% at the May 2025 review due to lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders. Passive fund demand expected is ~$570m.
Astera Labs (ALAB US) can migrate from small-cap to all-world in September 2025 with a slight price increase. Probability of migration in March 2025 is small.

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Jan 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up
FSS’s Short Selling Guidelines: Breaking Down the Key Violation Cases and What They Mean
CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer
Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ
Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) – Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings
Weekly Update (SNRE, HHH, ANGI, MRP)

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

J&T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.

FSS’s Short Selling Guidelines: Breaking Down the Key Violation Cases and What They Mean

The issue with borrowing agreements is that contracts with conditions set later or changeable terms don’t count, creating uncertainty on how this will play out in practice.
Many borrowing agreements depend on recall timing for ownership recognition, even within the same day, creating confusion in practice.
Repayment period limits don’t apply to internal desk-to-desk trades within the same firm. Other than those, no new updates today on reporting requirements, T+2 reporting window, or lending limits.

CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?

On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further.
This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons…

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held.
City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held.
Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?

By Devi Subhakesan

Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) stock has dropped 36% year-to-date and is now under an F&O ban after open interest hit threshold limits.
The rumours driving the stock decline lack financial or strategic relevance with no substantial reason for long-term investors to panic.
The stock correction has realigned Kalyan’s P/E discount to Titan, with current levels likely to stabilise and thus provide a near term support for Kalyan Jeweller’s stock price.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March

With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) – Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Smart Share Global (EM US), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Latin Resources (LRS AU), Pressance Corp (3254 JP).

Weekly Update (SNRE, HHH, ANGI, MRP)

By Richard Howe

This week, IAC Inc (IAC) provided an update on its Angi Inc (ANGI) spin-off plans.
Previously, IAC had suggested that it would spin off ANGI but hadn’t confirmed it.
IAC will spin-off its entire stake in Angi Inc in the first half of 2025, but no sooner than March 31.

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Jan 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Makino Milling (6135) – Trading Through Terms and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Makino Milling (6135) – Trading Through Terms, May Need Investor Pushing
A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs
Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Bumps, Next Move Bain
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside
GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

Makino Milling (6135) – Trading Through Terms, May Need Investor Pushing

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) in late December proposed an unsolicited takeover of Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), with a 3-month delay before launching a Tender Offer.
Makino has asked for an extension to the start. Nidec has said no. Makino is going about this the wrong way. Makino needs to assume Nidec thought this through.
Makino needs to open up the process to other bidders, and investors can help.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs

AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I’ve yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.
Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Bumps, Next Move Bain

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from CC Capital at A$4.60, a 7.0% premium compared to its previous A$4.30 offer and Bain’s A$4.30 offer.
While the revised CC Capital offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, there remains valuation headroom for Bain to engage in a bidding war.
The presence of several substantial shareholders facilitates a bidding war. The board should provide both bidders with due diligence access to promote the auction.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside

CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.
The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

I tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I’ve yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.
One new deal was discussed this week: Bain’s Tender Offer for Jamco Corp (7408 JP). Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) also countered for AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)/Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).

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Jan 18

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms
EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts
Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play
Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light
Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms

After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain’s A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital’s terms.
CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive.
And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital’s terms, again; if not a small premium.

EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts

By John Ley

Samsung Electronics stock has been an underperformer outright and also relative to Kospi200 as an overhang of catalysts has weighed on performance.
Implied vols are at the 88th percentile over the last 3 years and are at the top of their range relative to Kospi200.
We recommend 4 different ways to position in front of these catalysts and the large stock buy-back that was announced in November.

Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play

By Nimish Maheshwari

Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive.

Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)

KEXIM ignoring this premium could be a breach of duty, making Hanwha Ocean a prime short play. With 20% of shares, past cases suggest a 5-10% pullback.
This play’s tougher than HMM’s. Without step-ups, timing the conversion is tricky. Early redemption’s unlikely, so the focus is on when KEXIM pulls the trigger on the conversion.
No hints from KEXIM on the CB conversion yet, so loading up aggressively could be risky. We’ll likely need to wait for a signal from KEXIM before jumping in.

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Jan 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Henlius (2696 HK): So and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely
Smart Share Global’s Privatization Proposal: Evaluating the 20% Spread and Potential Offer Increase
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final

Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final.
The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.

Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea

Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light

Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final.
The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced.
The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms.

Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway

After the market close on 16 January, it was reported that Align Partners started to go activist on Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS).
Align Partners sent a public letter to Coway demanding improvements to shareholder returns and measures to enhance the independence of the board of directors.
The combination of higher shareholder returns, low valuations, and Align Partners putting further activist pressure are likely to lead to continued outperformance of Coway relative to KOSPI this year.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to four M&A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.

Smart Share Global’s Privatization Proposal: Evaluating the 20% Spread and Potential Offer Increase

By Dalius Tauraitis

Smart Share Global received a non-binding privatization proposal at $1.25/ADS, with a 20% spread after fees.
The buyer group holds 16% economic interest and 64% voting power; Trustar Capital’s involvement signals deal commitment.
EM’s power bank rental business is breakeven; cashflow positive mainly due to $440m cash pile interest income.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness
Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers
Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price
AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer
[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?
Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases
Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers
Sunrise Communications (SNRE): Dividend Initiation to Drive Upside

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers

Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last.
Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price.
Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a competing non-binding proposal from Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) at A$0.70, a 4.5% premium to AVID’s A$0.67 offer.
The potential for a Ho Bee competing offer was discussed in AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing.
Despite the hefty premium to the undisturbed price, the Ho Bee offer is below NTA. Therefore, there is headroom for a bidding war as an offer at NTA implies A$0.81.

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%.
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It’s a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases