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Oct 18
0

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Ganfeng Lithium, Lynas Corp Ltd, Elite UK REIT, Soft99 Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
  • CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
  • Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
  • Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite UK REIT: Counter Cyclical Portfolio, Attractive Yields
  • UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3
  • EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall
  • HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

By Brian Freitas

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
  • Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
  • Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
  • After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
  • Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

By Brian Freitas

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

By David Blennerhassett

  • As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
  • Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
  • The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite UK REIT: Counter Cyclical Portfolio, Attractive Yields

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, engageIR by Smartkarma is glad to welcome Elite UK REIT (ELITE SP)’s team to Smartkarma. We will be joined by their Chief Executive Officer, Joshua Liaw, Chief Investment Officer, Jonathan Edmunds, and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Tong, along with Smartkarma Insight Provider Garreth Elston.

In the upcoming webinar, the Elite UK REIT team will share a short company presentation after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Garreth. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 11 November 2025, 18:00 SGT.

About Elite UK REIT

Elite UK REIT (“Elite REIT” (“英利房托”)), is a UK REIT listed in Pound sterling on the Singapore Exchange and managed by Singapore-headquartered Elite UK REIT Management Pte. Ltd. (the “Manager”).

Elite REIT’s Sponsors are Elite Partners Holding Pte. Ltd. (“EPH”), the holding firm for Elite Partners Group, an alternative investment and asset manager; and Ho Lee Group Pte. Ltd., a real estate and construction conglomerate.

Elite REIT’s portfolio comprises mostly freehold properties strategically located mainly in town centres, and near amenities and transportation nodes. With its portfolio, Elite REIT is one of the largest providers of critical social infrastructure to the Department for Work and Pensions and other UK Government departments. As at 30 June 2025, Elite REIT’s portfolio has a total asset value of £421.5 million.

For more information on Elite UK REIT, please visit https://www.eliteukreit.com/

UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3

By Phil Rush

  • Slight growth in August sustains an above trend level of activity and is tracking to a 0.2% q-o-q pace for Q3, matching our forecast and the consensus, but disappointing the BoE.
  • The ongoing slowdown in service sector activity repeats residual seasonality that would leave a trough in two months, but there is slightly more resilience this year.
  • Policymakers shouldn’t react to statistical noise, and are unlikely to amid ongoing excesses in underlying inflation that a stabilising labour market wouldn’t break.

EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall

By Phil Rush

  • Inflation’s rise to a high 2.3% in September was confirmed in the final print, although some payback remains likely in October. We doubt it goes fully back to the target then.
  • Underlying inflation metrics were broadly stable again at about 2.5%, with little progress in most statistical measures for over a year.
  • There is little cause for alarm at this stage, so the ECB can keep waiting in a good place, but we still see a greater risk of hikes than cuts in 2026.

HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing

By Phil Rush

  • Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
  • Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

By Arun George

  • The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO offer price has been increased by 8.7% to JPY2,680, an 18.8% discount to the last close and a 34.6% discount to the Effissimo offer. 
  • Ostensibly, the offer was revised based on requests from some shareholders to increase the offer price and for it to exceed the book value of JPY2,653 (implying P/B of 1.01x). 
  • The latest update points to modest withdrawals of non-KeePer acceptances. Effissimo continues to face an uphill task, and the revised MBO offer increases the odds of success.

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Oct 17
0

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Ganfeng Lithium, Mayne Pharma, Mandom Corp, HKT Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, SK Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
  • CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
  • Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
  • Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
  • Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
  • The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today
  • Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

By Brian Freitas

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
  • Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
  • Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
  • After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
  • Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
  • Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
  • Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

By Brian Freitas

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
  • The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
  • The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns. 

Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add

By Arun George

  • Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
  • Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.  
  • CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not. 

The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

By David Blennerhassett

  • First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
  • Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
  • The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent.  A stake it acquired twenty years ago.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session
  • UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short
  • ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short

Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young

By Douglas Kim

  • The long-standing divorce case between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and his estranged wife Roh So-young refuses to end.
  • Rather, the Supreme Court of Korea overturned a lower court ruling that ordered Chey Tae-won to pay 1.38 trillion won ($973 million) to Ro So-young.
  • Our NAV valuation of SK Inc suggests implied market cap of 25.8 trillion won or target price of 355,918 won per share, which is 63% higher than current levels.

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Oct 16
0

Most Read: Ebara Corp, Tekscend Photomask, Genting Bhd, China Nonferrous Mining Corp, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, SK Inc, Mayne Pharma, Ganfeng Lithium, Seibu Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
  • Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap
  • StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
  • China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
  • Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
  • Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
  • Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
  • Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
  • Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
  • There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
  • TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
  • In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble

By David Blennerhassett

  • Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure. 
  • Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November. 
  • China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
  • Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
  • Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
  • Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves

By Sanghyun Park

  • Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
  • Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
  • If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling

By Arun George

  • The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).  
  • While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment. 
  • The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

By Brian Freitas

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
  • Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
  • While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
  • The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
  • The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns. 

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Oct 15
0

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Genting Malaysia, Bullish US, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals, Ebara Corp, Duality Biotherapeutics, Hanwha Ocean , Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
  • Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
  • [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
  • China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
  • UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
  • Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
  • Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement
  • Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries
  • An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
  • Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.  
  • HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
  • GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
  • GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

By Travis Lundy

  • Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update. 
  • They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
  • And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US)  and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too. 

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market

By Phil Rush

  • Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
  • Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
  • Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

By Brian Freitas

  • The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
  • The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
  • There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
  • Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
  • There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)‘ s raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong listing in April 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
  • Duality is a biopharma company focused primarily on the independent discovery and development of antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) assets.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries

By Douglas Kim

  • Chinese government’s efforts to ban Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries from conducting any transactions with organizations or individuals in China is likely to have material Negative impact on Hanwha Ocean.
  • If Hanwha’s U.S. subsidiaries are banned from Chinese suppliers, they’ll need to source alternatives (Japan, Europe, or domestic U.S. firms), that could involve 20–50% higher costs with longer lead times.
  • Basically, what’s going on is that the Chinese government wants to slow down the United States’ efforts to rebuild its shipbuilding sector with the help of Korean shipbuilders.

An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

By Douglas Kim

  • Back on 6 November 2024, we published an insight called 2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics. In this insight, we provide an update of Samsung Electronics.
  • Samsung Electronics reported operating profit of 12.1 trillion won (up 31.8% YoY and 18.7% higher than consensus) in 3Q 2025.
  • The final installment of the 12 trillion won+ inheritance tax is due in April 2026.

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Oct 14
0

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Lynas Corp Ltd, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings, Bullish US, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, Genting Malaysia, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
  • Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way
  • [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
  • RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer
  • Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
  • China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
  • RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
  • Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

By Brian Freitas

  • Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
  • The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
  • There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
  • Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
  • Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
  • We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

By Travis Lundy

  • Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update. 
  • They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
  • And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US)  and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too. 

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
  • Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
  • FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35

By Arun George

  • Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14. 
  • The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares. 
  • Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump. 

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

By Brian Freitas

  • The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
  • The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
  • There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

By Arun George

  • RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
  • The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.  

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Oct 13
0

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Alibaba, SIMMTECH Co Ltd, Dongfeng Motor, Hanon Systems, Lynas Corp Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BYD Electronics, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
  • Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks
  • Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance
  • Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom
  • Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out
  • Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs
  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
  • Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
  • This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
  • Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance

By Sanghyun Park

  • Next rebalance is Dec 12; Simmtech (222800 KS) looks set to replace Philoptics, with a KRW 0.8T market cap gap making it a high-conviction front-runner.
  • Dongjin Semicam and Daeduck clear market cap but face keyword-score risk; PSK Holdings vs S&S Tech is tight — final screening will decide, so front-running carries caution.
  • December rebalance AUM doubled; Simmtech and Philoptics could see ~1x DTV passive flows, likely triggering an even stronger passive price impact than last cycle.

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom

By Arun George

Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hahn & Co, holding 21.63% of Hanon, won’t join the rights issue, raising the odds of a CJ CGV–style stock rights dump hitting the market.
  • Hanon’s rights float mirrors CJ CGV (~17% post-ESOP), with Hahn & Co likely to sell, limited local demand, and potential follow-on selling pressure.
  • Hanon’s 50% rights at 15% discount offer smaller float than CJ CGV, but larger deal size and weak EV sentiment create a potential CJ CGV–style arb, with SSF tradability.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

By Brian Freitas

  • Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
  • The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
  • There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

By Patrick Liao

  • U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
  • Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  
  • Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the December 2025 index capping flows.
  • We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
  • Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
  • Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
  • We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.

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Oct 12
0

Most Read: Chery Automobile, Ramelius Resources, Tata Motors, Zijin Gold, Advantest Corp, Vingroup Jsc, Alibaba, Hang Seng Index, ReNew Energy Global , Hang Seng Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December
  • Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
  • Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
  • Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks
  • Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide
  • ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
  • Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

By Brian Freitas

  • Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
  • The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
  • The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
  • Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
  • NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

By Brian Freitas

  • In a pick-up in primary market activity, there have been 25 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in Q3.
  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) will be added to the HSCI after market close on 15 October and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 27 October.
  • There could be 4 (maybe 5) additions to the HSCI Index in December and 3 of those stocks will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open 8 December.

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

By Brian Freitas

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
  • The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
  • We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
  • This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
  • Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide

By John Ley

  • A renewed tariff threat from Trump sparked a sharp, sell-off across North American Equity markets.
  • The sell off was broad based and accordingly we look at the performance of Asian Index ETF’s that trade in North America to help prepare for Monday’s price action.
  • Implied volatility, price and option volume are displayed for each symbol.

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
  • The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
  • ReNew’s Special Committee will provide “public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025“.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend

By Arun George

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Oct 11
0

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Vingroup Jsc, Soft99 Corp, FineToday Holdings, BeiGene , iFAST, Yum China Holdings , Maynilad Water Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSBC (5 HK)’s Clean Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities
  • Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
  • FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case
  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises
  • Asian Equities: A Few Singapore Small and Mid-Cap Jewels
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely
  • UK: Poor Productivity Paradigms
  • Maynilad Water Services IPO – Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

HSBC (5 HK)’s Clean Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced an Offer from controlling parent (63.3551%), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme, in a HK$106bn (US$13.6bn) deal. 
  • The Scheme Consideration is HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price is final. A “third interim dividend” will be added. Optically, the price is bang on.
  • The long stop for conditions is the 30th September 2026. I think this transaction can be wrapped up in around five months. 

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
  • The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
  • We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.   
  • But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
  • Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  
  • FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
  • The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. 

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
  • The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2025.
  • The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 21st November 2025.

Asian Equities: A Few Singapore Small and Mid-Cap Jewels

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Singapore’s stellar performance has been propelled primarily by large caps. We think investors should focus on SMID now, as MAS’s S$5bn EQDP incentivizes fund managers to look outside index stocks.
  • We screen SMID stocks in SGX with above-market forecast earnings growth, EPS estimate upgrades over past 6 months, low leverage and reasonable growth adjusted valuations (PEG<1.4x).
  • Eight SMID stocks come up on our screen, spread across various sectors, but tilted towards Energy and Minerals and Mining. Most are net cash companies with ROEs higher than COEs.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.
  • We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.

UK: Poor Productivity Paradigms

By Phil Rush

  • The OBR looks likely to trim its productivity trend assumption to 1%, which would still be a bullish break from the current stagnation. Trends rarely break outside recessions.
  • High taxes are squeezing the most productive and being transferred to the inactive. It should not be surprising that the UK’s political choices have stalled productivity.
  • We see no reason to think the UK will pull off an internationally exceptional jobs-light boom from here. Ongoing stagnation would extend the UK’s rule for fiscal slippage.

Maynilad Water Services IPO – Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
  • MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing

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Oct 10
0

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Sony Financial Group, Vingroup Jsc, Kokusai Electric , Sun Corp, Soft99 Corp, BeiGene , InnoScience Suzhou Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities
  • [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
  • Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
  • [Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%
  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises
  • Innoscience Suzhou Tech Placement – Selling Ahead of Lockup Expiry, Relatively Small

HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced an Offer from controlling parent (63.3551%), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme, in a HK$106bn (US$13.6bn) deal. 
  • The Scheme Consideration is HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price is final. A “third interim dividend” will be added. Optically, the price is bang on.
  • The long stop for conditions is the 30th September 2026. I think this transaction can be wrapped up in around five months. 

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market

By Travis Lundy

  • Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
  • In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
  • With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
  • The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
  • We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

By Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management. 
  • This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
  • ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
  • The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations

By Arun George

  • The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has responded to Effissimo’s allegations. As expected, the Board accuses Effissimo of stating half-truths. 
  • The Board’s missive indirectly suggests that incremental acceptances since October 1 have been tepid, KeePer has not tendered, and the MBO is struggling to meet the minimum tendering condition. 
  • The two likeliest outcomes are 1) the MBO succeeds at current terms with KeePer likely joining BidCo, and 2) both offers fail. The risk/reward is unattractive at the last close. 

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.   
  • But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
  • Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2025.
  • The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 21st November 2025.

Innoscience Suzhou Tech Placement – Selling Ahead of Lockup Expiry, Relatively Small

By Sumeet Singh

  • InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong placement.
  • Innoscience was only listed in Dec 2024 and it undertook another primary raising in July 2025, the lockup for which has yet to expire.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Oct 09
0

Most Read: Quanta Computer, Taekwang Industrial, Kokusai Electric , Japan Post Bank, Sony Financial Group, Johns Lyng, Vingroup Jsc, Advantest Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
  • The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade
  • [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
  • Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer
  • Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
  • [Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory
  • Kokusai Electric Placement – Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal
  • US Shutdown: A Means To An End

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
  • There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
  • With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
  • Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

By Travis Lundy

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
  • This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
  • We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market

By Travis Lundy

  • Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
  • In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
  • With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 11th July, PEP offered A$4/share for integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU), a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder (17.62%), was supportive.
  • Pricing is okay. The absence of a final year fully franked dividend, which was teased at the onset, was ostensibly disappointing.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th October, and expected implementation on or before the 23rd October. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
  • The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
  • We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory

By Travis Lundy

  • Monday’s huge post-election move in Nikkei 225 and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) caused Advantest to clear 10.00% realtime at day-end. Assuming nothing changes til end-Jan-2026, Advantest gets capped at end-Mar-2026
  • As of today, that would be roughly 1.6x ADV and US$2.75bn but it would be 10% of Max Real World Float. 
  • This is far off but should stay on the radar. Softbank Group (9984 JP) is close behind at 8.7%. 15+% outperformance would put it in capping territory too.  

Kokusai Electric Placement – Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal

By Sumeet Singh

  • Applied Materials (AMAT US) is looking to raise approximately US$330m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 4.5% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) stock.
  • KE had seen two selldown earlier, from KKR, with mixed results. KKR just came out of its last lockup.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

US Shutdown: A Means To An End

By Alastair Newton

  • The Democrats opted for a US government shutdown despite the Administration being well prepared for what it sees as an opportunity to promote its longer-term agenda.
  • While they hold out, the president’s ‘grim reaper’, OMB Director Russell Vought, will have a free hand to cut the size of government and pursue his unitary executive vision.
  • Some of his actions will undoubtedly be challenged in the courts, but the signs are that the Supreme Court will continue to side firmly with the Administration.

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