Most Read

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: Key Methodology Changes; High-Impact Flows; US$3.6bn One-Way

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
There were some key methodology changes announced for this index yesterday.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: Tung Ho Steel TDIV Deletion In the Money Now

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see two changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in December.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally

By Nico Rosti

In our previous Fast Retailing (9983 JP) insight we identified a potential BUY opportunity ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize.
The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.
Right now, the stock is the most oversold of all the Asian stocks we track, probability of WEEKLY reversal stands at 72%, after last week’s Close.

Tekscend Photomask IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, aims to raise around US$830m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.

By Devi Subhakesan

Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

UK: Government Leads Imbalances

Household saving and inflation have eroded their debt burden while corporates remain prudent. A lack of imbalances to correct starves the UK of fuel for a recession fire.
Persistent fiscal and current account deficits highlight where the UK’s primary risk lies. If the market regime focuses on fiscal issues, the corrective pressures could be fierce.
We don’t expect that correction to occur, but the Chancellor should tread carefully, while doves need not worry about a recession arising from healthier other UK sectors.

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Sep 30

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Zijin Gold, Tekscend Photomask, Tung Ho Steel Enterprise, MINISO Group Holding and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut
ECM Weekly (29 September 2025)- Zijin, Chery, CAREIT, Orion, Butong, Victory Giant, Northern Star
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: Tung Ho Steel TDIV Deletion In the Money Now
UK: Lending Looks Stimulated
Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment).

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Trading Debut

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

ECM Weekly (29 September 2025)- Zijin, Chery, CAREIT, Orion, Butong, Victory Giant, Northern Star

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, this week saw a few good listings across the region while the spotlight will be on Zijin Gold (2259 HK) in the coming week.
On the placements front, it was a relatively quiter week, as compared to some of the more recent weekly flows.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$828 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price range compared to peer multiples.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: Tung Ho Steel TDIV Deletion In the Money Now

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
Currently, we see two changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in December.

UK: Lending Looks Stimulated

Lending activity is sustaining beyond the levels prevailing before the stamp duty tax hike distortion. Only housing transaction volumes are down, but by less than before.
New loan rates have fallen by 23bp since then, for a 110bp cumulative fall. New rates are close to the outstanding stock. Many borrowers are refinancing for similar deals.
Past tightening has broadly passed through, but the strength in broad money growth signals that monetary conditions are settling at a slightly stimulative setting.

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts.
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.

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Sep 29

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Zijin Gold, CRH , Dongbu Insurance, KT&G Corporation, Soft99 Corp, Great Wall Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline
Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment).

Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline

Spin-Off unlocks scale: Sony Financial (~¥23 tn assets) carved out from Sony, with ~¥250 bn market cap and ~¥200 bn free float.
Balance-Sheet heavy, rate-sensitive: Core life insurance business (~80–85% of profits) supported by strong solvency (ESR 189%).
Catalysts: Forced selling post-listing, earnings delivery, 40–50% payout policy, and likely TOPIX inclusion within 6–12 months.

Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December

Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)

In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (26 September to 10 October 2025).
Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Dynamics, Samsung Electronics, KT&G, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, Hyundai Elevator, SK Inc, Lotte Tour Development, Naver, and Douzone Bizon.
There have been some signs of shipbuilding and shipping services related stocks (such as HMM, SK Oceanplant, and HJ Shipbuilding) experiencing some weakness in the past couple of weeks.

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

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Sep 28

Most Read: Chery Automobile, Sony Financial Group, Zijin Gold, Hang Seng Index, CRH , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Dongbu Insurance, KT&G Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum
The Key to Revitalizing Existing TSE Growth Companies Is Whether They Can Expect Growth Through M&A
Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment).

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?

By Nico Rosti

As suggested in our previous insight, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally was at risk of pulling back: a small correction began last week.
The big question now: is this just a minor 1-week pullback (a buy-the-dip opportunity)? or a larger pullback, possibly directed towards 23k?
This insight discusses the various tactical scenarios, including profit targets for a continuation of the rally from here.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum

Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.
Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.
Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.

The Key to Revitalizing Existing TSE Growth Companies Is Whether They Can Expect Growth Through M&A

By Aki Matsumoto

The reason why IPOs tend to become the goal is that many IPOs are conducted for purposes other than company growth after IPOs.
In order to correct the notion that “IPO is the goal,” there are expectations for the revitalization of the market for trading unlisted shares and M&A of unlisted companies.
With the entry of unlisted stock funds, trading in privately-held stocks will become active, and if M&A for growth and management changes take place, the quality of IPOs will improve.

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December

Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)

In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (26 September to 10 October 2025).
Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Dynamics, Samsung Electronics, KT&G, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, Hyundai Elevator, SK Inc, Lotte Tour Development, Naver, and Douzone Bizon.
There have been some signs of shipbuilding and shipping services related stocks (such as HMM, SK Oceanplant, and HJ Shipbuilding) experiencing some weakness in the past couple of weeks.

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Sep 27

Most Read: Shift Inc, Sony Financial Group, Soft99 Corp, Hyundai Elevator Co, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc
Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price
Sony Spin-off (Sony Financial Group) Spin-off Deep Dive
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed
A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex
Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside
HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc

Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before.
The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion.
That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead.

Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited.
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price

Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
“The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

Sony Spin-off (Sony Financial Group) Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Sony Group Corporation (6758) is planning to spin off 80% of its stake in Sony Financial Group Inc. (8729) on September 29, 2025.
Sony Financial Group Inc. is the financial services arm of Sony, comprised of three main businesses
The spin-off will generate ~ ¥100BN in the current fiscal year and pay a ¥50BN annual dividend.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers.
While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition.
Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail.

A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex

On 24 September, Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS) announced that it plans to sell 7.8 million shares of Hyundai Movex (319400 KS), representing 7% of its outstanding shares.
Over the next several weeks, we expect continued outperformance of Hyundai Elevator vs Hyundai Movex.
We like the pair trade of going long Hyundai Elevator and going short Hyundai Movex over the next 1-3 months, especially due to concerns about a 7% sale in Movex.

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves

Bullish GDP revisions and jobless claims provided further reminders that the economy is much more resilient than market pricing has dovishly assumed, causing a hawkish shift.
Nonetheless, the Riksbank surprised with a 25bp rate cut, but projected that as the terminal rate before hikes start reversing the stimulative setting in 2026.
Next week’s US payrolls data dominates the calendar, given the potential to break market conviction in an October Fed cut. EA inflation should rise back above the target.

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Sep 26

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Shift Inc, Soft99 Corp, Horizon Robotics, Mandom Corp, Naspers, Service Stream, Hanssem Co Ltd, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price
Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising
[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger
StubWorld: Naspers Coming Up “Cheap” Vs Prosus
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds
FSS Just Announced: Treasury Disclosure Threshold Cut to 1% — Trading Highlights
Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited.
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price

Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
“The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising

By Akshat Shah

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger

On 10 September, CVC announced a family-led MBO of well-known Japanese hair-care/cosmetics firm Mandom Corp (4917 JP). Agreed, supported, recommended, for a start date end-September. It was also too light.
I suggested the open-ish register could trigger activists. The stock opened just above terms post-announcement and then traded higher. Shares fell today but it is still 15% through terms.
Hibiki Path Advisors wrote a strong letter. Murakami announced a 6.67% stake yesterday, 8.39% today. But that’s 5 days old. Today, the company announced the TOB starts tomorrow. Still fun.

StubWorld: Naspers Coming Up “Cheap” Vs Prosus

As Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms, Naspers (NPN SJ) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor.
Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus and Tencent (700 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers.
While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition.
Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

FSS Just Announced: Treasury Disclosure Threshold Cut to 1% — Trading Highlights

Disclosure threshold drops from 5% to 1%, signaling stricter transparency, heavier penalties, and potential acceleration of buyback cancellations; new rules open for comment until November 5, effective Q4.
Near-Term, high-treasury, solid-ROE stocks could see short-term momentum as mandatory cancels and tighter disclosure mechanically lift EPS, driving flows and setting up potential short-term longs.
This sparks a new event-driven “disclosure schedule trading” setup, as 1%+ treasury holdings now trigger twice-yearly reports and six-month follow-ups, boosting volatility around announcements.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months.
My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride.

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Sep 25

Most Read: Chery Automobile, Gemvax & Kael, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Alibaba, MNC Solution, Tekscend Photomask, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Ecopro BM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response
Alibaba (9988 HK): It’s Raining AI at the Apsara Conference, Firing up the Stock.
Broadly Slower Services PMIs
Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in December 2025
Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend
Ecopro Co – Confirms Raising 800 Billion Won Through a PRS Using Stake in Ecopro BM

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response

In a fairly common pattern, the founding family (38% ownership) of Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) have launched an MBO.
It is too cheap at 4.2x adjusted EV/EBITDA (one could argue it is 5.0x but they also have net receivables) for such a ubiquitous brand and growth.
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) may have been a one-off. Maybe not. People may look at this situation through that lens. It deserves that look.

Alibaba (9988 HK): It’s Raining AI at the Apsara Conference, Firing up the Stock.

By Devi Subhakesan

Alibaba (9988 HK) launched Qwen3-Max, its largest LLM to date, along with a suite of Qwen3 models and technical upgrades at its annual flagship conference, reinforcing its full-stack AI ambitions.
The stock has surged nearly 50% month-to-date, fueled by investor optimism over AI-related upside, since the August 29 investor call.
Investors now await proof that execution and performance will deliver on Alibaba’s bold technical claims and high market expectations.

Broadly Slower Services PMIs

PMIs broadly disappointed and declined relative to August, but absolute levels mostly remain robust or at least expansionary. We are not concerned by these noisy moves.
Such broad slowing seems shocking relative to the past few months, but it is historically a regular occurrence. Five of the previous twelve were at least as broadly bad.
The labour market remains tight in the euro area, softened in the UK, and steady in the US. Slower activity does not mean disinflationary slack. We stay relatively hawkish.

Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in December 2025

In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2025.
The seven potential additions are up on average 200% YTD. The eight potential deletion candidates are down on average 8.8% YTD. KOSPI is up 44.7% YTD.
The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 3.5 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.6 trillion won.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism

Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY3,530, a 32.2% premium to the last close price. The offer represents a ten-year high.
The offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range and its requested price. Hibiki has previously suggested an intrinsic value of JPY4,929.
The setup shares several traits with the Mandom MBO, and has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder or agitates for better terms.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
Tekscend, which was carved out of Toppan Printing (7911 JP) in 2022, is owned by Toppan (with a 50.1% stake) and Integral (5842 JP) (with a 49.9% stake).
The bull case rests on its leading market position, attractive market opportunity, stable underlying margins, net cash position, and attractive dividend policy.

Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend

Pref spread looks stretched near 21–22%, likely a pullback soon. Structural re-rate needs a major Samsung narrative shift.
A surprise Samsung special dividend could pivot the pref discount; H2 FCF, Q3 prelims, and lighter capex are the key swing factors.
Expect a short-term pullback; but still stay cautious. Watch the memory upcycle and consider a discount-narrowing trade around late September.

Ecopro Co – Confirms Raising 800 Billion Won Through a PRS Using Stake in Ecopro BM

On 24 September, Ecopro Co confirmed that it will be raising 800 billion won through a PRS using its stake in Ecopro BM as the base asset.
Ecopro BM has a market cap of 11.3 trillion won. A PRS worth 800 billion won represents 7.1% of Ecopro BM’s market cap.
All in all, we believe this PRS deal worth 800 billion won is likely to negatively impact both Ecopro Co and Ecopro BM.

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Sep 24

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Chery Automobile, Alibaba, Gemvax & Kael, Zijin Gold, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis
Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking
OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps’ average multiple.
We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto’s higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November.

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

By Nicholas Tan

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October.
The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided.

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Sep 23

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Samsung Electronics, BayCurrent Consulting , Zijin Gold, Japan Post Bank, Alibaba, StubHub Holdings, Hamee Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger

In Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That’s close. SMALL EFFECT.
Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

By Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

StubHub Holdings (STUB US) went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.
StubHub Holdings (STUB US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.
The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.

Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track

By Richard Howe

Hamee reported earnings on September 12, and the stock traded down ~6%.
The headline earnings looked awful but they included many one time and/or non cash expenses.
To me, the underlying business looks strong. The spin-off is on track for early November, and I expect it to serve as a hard catalyst to drive shares higher.

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Sep 22

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Sony Financial Group, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, BayCurrent Consulting , Jinke Smart Services, Sejin Heavy Industries Co Ltd, Technopro Holdings, Pateo Connect Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional
Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal
Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay
Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
Pateo Connect Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Growth Has Not Translated to Profits

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment). Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional

Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties holding 37.86% (at the time), bought Jinke Property (000656 CH)‘s 18.05% stake at auction on the 30th March, triggering an unconditional MGO (once completed).
The “Auction Transfer” was subject to CSDC oversight, which has now been satisfied/completed. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 26th September.

Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal

HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card