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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Raysum Co Ltd, Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hulic (3003) Launches TOB to Take Out Raysum (8890) – HUGE Win for Good Governance And Activism
  • Crypto Moves #43 – Trading Crypto on the First U.S. Rate Cut


Hulic (3003) Launches TOB to Take Out Raysum (8890) – HUGE Win for Good Governance And Activism

By Travis Lundy

  • The change in control of Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP) has a complex backstory. But one week shy of two years ago, Oasis launched a buyout to own 65%.
  • The company had a strong MTMP. Oasis paid ¥1,700/share to own 65%. The MTMP came through, there was an offering, and it stayed near ¥3,000/share. 
  • Now Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) has come out with a Tender Offer to buy the company for ¥5,913/share. That’s a 94% premium and 3.5x what Oasis paid 2yrs ago.

Crypto Moves #43 – Trading Crypto on the First U.S. Rate Cut

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It is becoming increasingly clear that the first U.S. interest rate cut is just around the corner.
  • The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for September 18, will determine the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next move on U.S. Dollar interest rates.
  • The FED has strongly indicated its intent to reduce rates by at least 25 basis points, with a slim possibility of a 50 basis point cut, although this is highly unlikely following the release of a slightly higher-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Macquarie and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Fortescue, Mirvac, Insurance Australia, BHP, Wesfarmers, CSL.

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Daily Brief ESG: Companies Should Reset the Yen’s Depreciation Benefit Mindset and Regain Core Competencies and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies Should Reset the Yen’s Depreciation Benefit Mindset and Regain Core Competencies


Companies Should Reset the Yen’s Depreciation Benefit Mindset and Regain Core Competencies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Comparing the number of Japanese companies in top 50 global market capitalization and Japan’s GDP as percentage of world’s GDP in 1989, it’s clear that economy and companies didn’t grow.
  • Without more Japanese companies that have an edge in profitability, a key focus for long-term global investors, it will not be possible to put long-term investment money into Japanese equities.
  • It is assumed that BoJ’s policy of inducing the yen to depreciate through ultra-monetary easing may have in part spoiled company managers and caused them to neglect their corporate efforts.

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Daily Brief ECM: CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case
  • Shuangdeng Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: Too Early, Too Ambitious


CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China’s largest purified drinking water company, has received HK listing approval for a US$1 billion IPO.
  • In CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on core business’ pricing pressure, a slow pace of revenue diversification, a sizeable pre-IPO dividend, and margin and FCF generation below its key peer. 

Shuangdeng Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd (JISHUZ CH) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, CCBI and Huatai.
  • Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd is engaged in energy storage business for big-data and telecommunication industries with a focus on design, R&D, manufacturing and sales of energy storage batteries and systems.
  • It was ranked first among global telecom base station and data-center energy storage battery providers in terms of shipment volume, achieving a 10.4% market share in 2023, according to F&S.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: Too Early, Too Ambitious

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$300m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In this note, we examine the company’s two core products, namely DB-1313 (HER2 ADC) and DB-1311 (B7-H3 ADC). We think the company’s products are not yet convincing.
  • While the management has expertise as biotech investors, biotech-related operational experience seems to be lacking.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | ECB Cuts as Eyes Turn to Fed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | ECB Cuts as Eyes Turn to Fed
  • US Banks and New Capital Rules – GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best
  • TMT Daily – EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble
  • Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US
  • Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?
  • Japan’s Malls up 2.7% but New Builds Down
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/
  • Mat-Chem Notes – Weakness of Industrial, Ag, and EV Markets Leaves Few Options


Ohayo Japan | ECB Cuts as Eyes Turn to Fed

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks climbed Thursday after a key inflation report showed the producer-price index rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations
  • The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% amid slowing inflation and weak economic growth
  • Sumitomo Corporation is launching a renewable energy business in India, investing 100 billion yen with a local partner to develop solar and wind power plants

US Banks and New Capital Rules – GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The Fed’s Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new
  • JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of ‘importance to system’ so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest
  • Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared

TMT Daily – EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

By Neil Campling

  • EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
  • What happened to Nvidia’s MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
  • Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time

Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

By Andrew Jackson

  • US homebuilders outperformance after Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgages were at 18-month lows a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House.
  • Shin-Etsu should also see upside given its US PVC exposure, with the stock looking oversold after heavy foreigner selling MTD.
  • Shiseido’s first new product launch in 4-years for ‘Elixir’ range, along with reports that its domestic business is picking up, may be enough to spark a squeeze off multi-year lows.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)
  • AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)
  • AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

By William Keating

  • During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
  • Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
  • The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase. Yet, you can buy the key players today for the same price you would have paid 5 years ago. That’s nice..

Japan’s Malls up 2.7% but New Builds Down

By Michael Causton

  • Shopping malls have finally recovered to pre-Covid sales levels now that consumers are travelling freely (at least inside Japan) and spending more on discretionary items in some segments.
  • But development of new malls is slow due to falling demand from tenants, saturation in the best locations, higher costs and the labour shortage.  
  • The outlook remains muted, with little prospect of a major change in investment schedules although some larger developments are in the pipeline.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/

By Ying Pan

  • PDD US/BABA US: PDD’s updated ad-tool to launch this week (+/-)
  • BABA US: Freshippo private-brand food products to launch in Australia supermarket eBest (/)
  • PDD US/SE US : Temu remains most-downloaded app in LATAM during August (+/-)

Mat-Chem Notes – Weakness of Industrial, Ag, and EV Markets Leaves Few Options

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. In a down week for the market, with both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 declining 4.2% and 5.7%, respectively, 29 of the 30 stocks in our WTR-CMI Index likewise saw their prices fall 4.0%, with AVD being the only exception, appreciating 9.1% for the week.
  • YTD, the S&P 500, heavily weighted toward tech and internet stocks, has increased 13.4%, while our WTR-CMI Index has increased 7.2%, outperforming the broader Russell 2000’s 3.2% rise, despite lithium stocks’ 50%- plus declines.
  • Recycled plastics market gaining acceptance. LYB announced the acquisition of German APK AG, a mechanical plastics recycler to bolster its circular economy and low-carbon credentials, while AVTN launched a pigment additive for plastics used in automotive plications made from recycled tires, as an alternative to carbon black, again aiming at helping its customers reduce their carbon impact while improving its own circular economy efforts.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Vanke , Greentown China


Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Vanke , Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MBK’s Dual Tenders for Korea Zinc and Youngpoong Precision: The Largest Deal Ever in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK’s Dual Tenders for Korea Zinc and Youngpoong Precision: The Largest Deal Ever in Korea
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover – Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)
  • MBK Partners and Jang Family Partner to Control Korea Zinc + Tender Offer of 14.6% of Korea Zinc
  • Tender Offer of 43.4% Stake in Young Poong Precision by MBK
  • When Dissenting REALLY Pays Off
  • Raymond Lifestyle: A Value Play in Ethnic Wear with Special Situation Potential
  • KRX Releases November SSFs and SSOs Reshuffle: Here’s the Breakdown
  • Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry
  • Fuji Soft (9749) – Fuji Softer


MBK’s Dual Tenders for Korea Zinc and Youngpoong Precision: The Largest Deal Ever in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK launches a tender offer to acquire 14.6% of Korea Zinc at ₩660,000 per share, a ₩2T deal with an 18.7% premium. Offer runs from September 13 to October 4.
  • On top of that, MBK’s also rolling out a tender offer for Young Poong Precision at ₩20,000 per share—a hefty 113% premium over yesterday’s close.
  • Spread action is possible if the Choi family counters, driving volatility. The market’s watching for a higher bid, which could create trading opportunities amid rising spread volatility.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover – Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

By Travis Lundy

  • Late last month, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
  • Everyone was expecting a delay, but that caused the stock to fall. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, then China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further delay.
  • I saw a 9% gross spread yesterday and thought “Geez”, that’s a buy.” A day later, it’s 6%. Still wide, still interesting. And that has set a boundary.

MBK Partners and Jang Family Partner to Control Korea Zinc + Tender Offer of 14.6% of Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 12 September, Maekyung Business Daily reported that MBK Partners will become the largest shareholder of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) along with Young Poong (000670 KS). 
  • MBK Partners, along with Youngpoong and advisor Jang Hyung-jin, also plans to conduct a tender offer of 14.6% stake in Korea Zinc. 
  • The tender offer price for Korea Zinc is 660,000 won per share, which is 18.7% higher than the closing price on 12 September.

Tender Offer of 43.4% Stake in Young Poong Precision by MBK

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 12 September, Hankyung Business Daily reported that MBK Partners plans to conduct a tender offer of 43.43% stake in Young Poong Precision.
  • The tender offer price is 20,000 won per share (113% higher than the closing price on 12 September). 
  • Choi family currently controls Young Poong Precision. MBK plans to secure a controlling stake and obtain voting rights for the 1.85% stake in Korea Zinc held by Young Poong Precision.

When Dissenting REALLY Pays Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in August 2017, Xingxuan Technology, a privately held Cayman Islands company operating in the online food delivery space in China, was transferred by way of a statutory merger. 
  • The buyer was Alibaba Group (9988 HK)-backed Rajax, the key seller, Baidu (9888 HK). The dissenter, having paid US$125mn for its shares, was offered cash/scrip worth an estimated US$42mn.
  • The dissenter considered terms low-balled. The judge agreed. The uplift? 659%.

Raymond Lifestyle: A Value Play in Ethnic Wear with Special Situation Potential

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Raymond Lifestyle (RAYMONDL IN) recently demerged from Raymond Limited.  Since Raymond Limited was part of various indexes, Raymond Lifestyle was not. Index Fund selling led to a correction.
  • The correction made Raymond Lifestyle a special situation value bet.
  • The cherry on the cake is strong management guidance and a foray into the untapped non branded and unorganized apparel segment

KRX Releases November SSFs and SSOs Reshuffle: Here’s the Breakdown

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the November reshuffle, single stock futures rise from 222 to 258 (+36) and single stock options increase from 52 to 58 (+6) across KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ Global.
  • The main takeaway from this reshuffle is the price impact from a short-term volume spike as market makers jump into newly listed single-stock futures.
  • The volume surge in spot markets for newly listed assets consistently drives positive price impact, most notably right after listing, rather than waiting until contract expiry.

Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Midea Group (000333 CH) has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.
  • Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.
  • The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.

Fuji Soft (9749) – Fuji Softer

By Travis Lundy

  • When Bain came out saying they would bid more, with preparation to launch in November, KKR launched early to see if they could get the jump, discussed here.
  • The stock popped when the Bain’s bid was obviously serious, and supported by the Founding Family, but it went to Bain’s “5% higher” plus another 5%. I was bearish.
  • But I signalled willingness to change my mind if the stock price dropped. It has dropped. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Rakuten: Rewiring Japan’s Digital Economy – [Business Breakdowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten: Rewiring Japan’s Digital Economy – [Business Breakdowns, EP.182]
  • Marathon Partners’ Mario Cibelli on digital remittances company, Remitly $RELY
  • GitLab Inc.: Expansion of AI-Driven Developer Tools & Major Growth Drivers
  • Copart Inc.: A Tale Of Global Expansion & Enhanced Buyer Engagement! – Major Drivers
  • DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc.: Expansion of Innovative Store Formats & Focus On High-Performance Vertical Brands For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Expanded Portfolio of AI Solutions & Hybrid Cloud Solutions Are Critical Growth Catalysts! – Major Drivers
  • Casey’s General Stores Inc.: Leveraging Financial Health for Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • Asana Inc.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges In Its Path For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • DRX: Revenue Misses due to Delays but Margins Smash Expectations


Rakuten: Rewiring Japan’s Digital Economy – [Business Breakdowns, EP.182]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Rakuten is a Japanese conglomerate with a diverse portfolio of businesses, including e-commerce, finance, travel, and mobile telephony.
  • Founded during the late nineties global Internet boom, Rakuten has become a ubiquitous brand in Japan.
  • The loyalty point system has become a key feature of Rakuten’s business model, connecting its various services together.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Marathon Partners’ Mario Cibelli on digital remittances company, Remitly $RELY

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Remitly is a digital international money transfer company competing with traditional providers like Western Union and MoneyGram.
  • Mario Sabelli sees Remitly as potentially becoming the “booking.com of the digital remittance space.”
  • He believes Remitly is well-positioned to dominate the market due to its scale and competitive advantages over legacy competitors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


GitLab Inc.: Expansion of AI-Driven Developer Tools & Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • GitLab’s Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 results showcase a blend of growth and strategic enhancements, particularly in its DevSecOps platform enriched with AI capabilities.
  • Revenue grew substantially by 31% year-over-year, totaling $183 million, a testament to the adoption of new accounts alongside expansions in existing clientele including notable names like Delaware North and Guild Mortgage.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Copart Inc.: A Tale Of Global Expansion & Enhanced Buyer Engagement! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In assessing the financial performance and business dynamics of Copart, Inc. for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, certain key elements stand out which prospective investors should consider.
  • The company reported a successful year, underscoring robust growth and strategic expansion across various segments of its operations.
  • However, also noted were certain industry-wide challenges and specific business costs that affected overall financial outcomes.

DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc.: Expansion of Innovative Store Formats & Focus On High-Performance Vertical Brands For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DICK’S Sporting Goods’ second quarter 2024 earnings showcased a compelling financial performance, emphasizing its robust strategies and execution capacities.
  • The sporting goods retailer reported an encouraging 7.8% increase in sales compared to the previous year, reaching nearly $3.5 billion.
  • This result reflects not only an enhancement of average sales tickets but also an uptick in transaction volumes, signaling strengthened consumer engagement and market share.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong market is range bound with conglomerates showing strength over the last few weeks.  As the CNY/HKD strengthens the A/H premium should narrow.
  • SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) reported good results on the back of increased demand driven by the AI sector. 
  • Yum China Holdings (9987 HK),Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) reported flat sales and an increase in operating profit in a difficult fast food retail environment in China.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Expanded Portfolio of AI Solutions & Hybrid Cloud Solutions Are Critical Growth Catalysts! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) demonstrated a strong financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, reporting substantial year-over-year revenue growth and a marginal increase in non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share.
  • As delineated in their earnings call, the company continues to navigate a dynamic market environment, focusing on growth sectors such as AI, hybrid cloud, and networking.
  • Revenue reached $7.7 billion, a 10% increase from the previous year, which is attributed to notable growth in AI systems revenue and other portfolio enhancements.

Casey’s General Stores Inc.: Leveraging Financial Health for Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Casey’s General Stores wrapped up its first quarter of fiscal year 2025 with a positive outlook on its operations, financials, and strategic direction.
  • Led by CEO Darren Rebelez and CFO Stephen Bramlage, the company’s performance reflected a strong start to the fiscal year with notable progress in both store operations and financial metrics.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Asana Inc.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges In Its Path For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Asana’s second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings presentation highlighted several fundamental aspects of the company’s financial health and strategic direction.
  • The overall tone indicated cautious optimism, marked by a cautious stabilization in revenues with indications of accelerating growth in the foreseeable future.
  • Financially, Asana reported a revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, surpassing its own projections and signaling subtle strength within certain operational segments.

DRX: Revenue Misses due to Delays but Margins Smash Expectations

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • ADF reported mixed Q2 financials that missed our revenue estimate due project delays but largely beat our profitability estimates.
  • • Revenue came in at $74.9M vs. our $92.6M (due to $35M in delays) while EBITDA came in at $24.9M (33% margin) vs. our estimate of $17.9M.
  • • Management remained bullish on the long-term growth of the sector and ended the quarter in large net cash position.

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Daily Brief Macro: Korea Exchange Plans to List Additional 39 Stock Futures and 6 Stock Options and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Exchange Plans to List Additional 39 Stock Futures and 6 Stock Options
  • Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)
  • US CPI Review: 50bp is OFF (In September)
  • India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead
  • FOMC Preview for September 18: An One-Time Easing
  • Thailand Politics: In Office but Not in Power? What Awaits Thailand’s Latest Premier
  • [ETP 2024/37] Oil Prices Rebound but Weak Demand Limits Gains, Nat-Gas Rises on Output Cuts
  • ECB: Noctober With Shifting Risks


Korea Exchange Plans to List Additional 39 Stock Futures and 6 Stock Options

By Douglas Kim

  • On 12 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it plans to list additional 39 stock futures (27 KOSPI and 12 KOSDAQ) and 6 stock options on 4 November.
  • With these listings, the stock options will also be available for most of the top stocks in the stock market, including Samsung Biologics and Samsung Life Insurance. 
  • Given that shorting of stocks is still essentially banned in Korea, the use of stock futures and options are likely to be increasingly used by investors to improve risk management. 

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
  • A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.
  • The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.

US CPI Review: 50bp is OFF (In September)

By Andreas Steno

  • Today’s CPI report confirms that the 50bps cut markets were hoping for is now completely off the table, with markets currently pricing in only a 10% probability of such a scenario, compared to 50-60% just last week after the NFP report.
  • We knew the energy component would deflate significantly this month, with retail gasoline prices down 20-25% during August.
  • The overall report is actually not that hawkish beneath the surface—food prices are stable, used cars and trucks didn’t increase as much as feared, and the commodities part of the core component continues to deflate, despite transportation services and shelter lifting the overall print.

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug’24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct’24 MPC.
  • Although Sep-Oct’24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar’25. 
  • We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr’25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 

FOMC Preview for September 18: An One-Time Easing

By Alex Ng

  • With recent data raising concern about labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target likely.
  • The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accelerate or pause the pace of easing.
  • The dots are likely to look quite dovish, particularly in comparison to June’s, but with a substantial variety of views.

Thailand Politics: In Office but Not in Power? What Awaits Thailand’s Latest Premier

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Thailand sees the third Shinawatra installed as its latest prime minister.  Paetongtarn faces the same set of fundamental constraints that plagued her predecessor’s tenure.  
  • Cyclical economic weakness will mean that resuscitating growth is crucial to restore public support for her party, but she will find it hard to deliver much in terms of policy.
  • Behind the scenes, the internecine tussle between the Shinawatras and the military-royalist establishment will continue to paralyze the government.

[ETP 2024/37] Oil Prices Rebound but Weak Demand Limits Gains, Nat-Gas Rises on Output Cuts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 06/Sept, US crude inventories increased by 0.8m barrels, lower than the 0.9m barrel forecast. Gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly, while distillate inventories grew more than anticipated.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 40 Bcf for the week ending 06/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 49 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 9.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. Schlumberger announces breakthrough in Lithium production.

ECB: Noctober With Shifting Risks

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s unsurprising unanimous 25bp deposit rate cut in September provided little guidance on what’s next. It was not a no to cutting in October, but that seems unlikely.
  • Forecasts are the current communication tool, and stability won’t justify a panicked acceleration of easing. We still expect the next 25bp ECB rate cut in December.
  • Although risks skew dovishly for October, a historically optimistic call for productivity booming beyond profit norms presents hawkish risks to the ECB’s 2025 forecast.

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Daily Brief Australia: Pioneer Credit and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pioneer Credit Ltd – Turning point


Pioneer Credit Ltd – Turning point

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update on ethically-motivated, diversified financials group Pioneer Credit (ASX:PNC) following the company’s FY24 result in which it delivered NPAT adjusted of $1.2m.
  • Our base case valuation has increased to $263m (previously $217m) or $1.96/share reflecting improved financing.
  • We model a range based on a number of factors giving us a low case of $1.84/share and high case of $2.23/share.

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