Category

Daily Briefs

Dec 24
0

Daily Brief United States: Newmont , Livent, MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
  • We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone. 
  • There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

By David Blennerhassett

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
  • The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
  • We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief ESG: Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies had the goal of IPOs as a means to save taxes rather than growth, but it’s good to seriously consider go private for the sake of their shareholders.
  • This is due to companies’ awareness of listing costs, such as demands from overseas investors for improved governance and requests from TSE for “management with awareness of the stock price.”
  • Another issue that needs to be examined is the loss of growth and profitability for companies that are delisted and then relisted.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief India: Embassy Office Parks REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

By Ethan Aw

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, things started to cool down into the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year ends.
  • On the placement front, most of the action continued to come from India. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
  • The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
  • We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

By Tina Banerjee

  • A new COVID variant JN.1 is spreading fast. WHO has classified JN.1 as “variant of interest” due to its “rapidly increasing spread.” Thus far, JN.1 has not caused severe infection.
  • Symptoms of JN.1 may not be as mild as Omicron variants. If JN.1 becomes deadlier and more infectious, diagnostics and vaccine players are going to be benefitted primarily.
  • In this insight we have discussed two Asian vaccine companies and one diagnostic company, which should be kept in the watchlist.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
  • Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec
  • Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
  • If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies had the goal of IPOs as a means to save taxes rather than growth, but it’s good to seriously consider go private for the sake of their shareholders.
  • This is due to companies’ awareness of listing costs, such as demands from overseas investors for improved governance and requests from TSE for “management with awareness of the stock price.”
  • Another issue that needs to be examined is the loss of growth and profitability for companies that are delisted and then relisted.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

By Ethan Aw

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, things started to cool down into the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year ends.
  • On the placement front, most of the action continued to come from India. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
  • We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone. 
  • There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
  • Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
  • If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: FTC Under Lina Khan Is Armed with Shrewd Regulatory Arsenal Against Anti-Competitive M&A Deals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • FTC Under Lina Khan Is Armed with Shrewd Regulatory Arsenal Against Anti-Competitive M&A Deals
  • Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks … And Liquidity
  • Fed Policy Pivot: Forerunner to Further Capitulation in the Great Game of Chicken?

FTC Under Lina Khan Is Armed with Shrewd Regulatory Arsenal Against Anti-Competitive M&A Deals

By Suhas Reddy

  • The Federal Trust Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DoJ) issued new guidelines for mergers and acquisitions addressing modern market realities.
  • Guidelines are aimed at preventing large corporations in highly concentrated markets from acquiring current and/or potential competitors with a view to monopolising their industries.
  • The new guidelines give regulators better ammunition to scrutinise vertical and cross mergers, giving them much needed “teeth” to challenge “clever” M&A transactions.

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks … And Liquidity

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets
  • The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.
  • The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers

Fed Policy Pivot: Forerunner to Further Capitulation in the Great Game of Chicken?

By Said Desaque

  • The faster-than-expected decline in inflation in 2023 has forced the Fed to lower real interest rates next year, partly due its assessment of the neutral level remaining unchanged at 0.5%.
  • History suggests that Fed policy pivots followed by a rapid succession of interest rate reductions have not prevented recessions. US equity and bond investors are still embracing a soft-landing outcome.
  • By capitulating to the demands of financial markets to pivot its policy stance, the Fed faces the risk of encountering more pressure to ease further at a later juncture.

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