Daily Briefs

As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone.
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: Adbri (ABC AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Probiotec (PBP AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), and Whispir (WSP AU).
Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Lithium Power International (LPI AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Benefit One Inc, MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%.
Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Nothing of note in a quiet week.
Event-Driven developments – Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Adbri (ABC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).

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Dec 24

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Benefit One Inc, MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%.
Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Nothing of note in a quiet week.
Event-Driven developments – Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Adbri (ABC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Financials: Embassy Office Parks REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

By Ethan Aw

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, things started to cool down into the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year ends.
On the placement front, most of the action continued to come from India.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Consumer: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

Many companies had the goal of IPOs as a means to save taxes rather than growth, but it’s good to seriously consider go private for the sake of their shareholders.
This is due to companies’ awareness of listing costs, such as demands from overseas investors for improved governance and requests from TSE for “management with awareness of the stock price.”
Another issue that needs to be examined is the loss of growth and profitability for companies that are delisted and then relisted.

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Dec 24

Most Read: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Kinross Gold Corp, A2 Milk Co Ltd, Abacus Storage King, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Vietnam Dairy Products JSC, Posco DX, Newmont and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes
MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes
KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: TEMC Added; Short Covering Expected in PoscoDX
Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is the biggest sell while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the biggest buy.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer

The KRX has preliminarily approved Posco DX (022100 KS)‘s listing transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
Posco DX (022100 KS) has announced that its stock will start trading on the KOSPI Market from the open on 2 January.
We expect Temc (425040 KS) to replace Posco DX (022100 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the close on 28 December.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is expected to replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March review.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.
Short interest on Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in GDS Holdings (9698 HK).

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.
There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal

There are no constituent changes for the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) in December but there are float and capping changes.
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) is the biggest sell and is due to a drop in float, a reversal of the excessively high float assigned at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% and will result in a one-way trade of A$26m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add & Other Changes

CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 15 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% and that results in a one-way trade of US$30m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
The largest passive inflows will be in Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN), CEO Group JSC (CEO VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN).

KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: TEMC Added; Short Covering Expected in PoscoDX

Posco DX (022100 KS) will move from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market on 2 January. That means KOSDAQ150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) deletion at the close on 28 December.
In line with our forecast, Temc (425040 KS) will be added to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) as a replacement.
Short interest increased in Posco DX (022100 KS) following its inclusion in a global index and there should continue to be unwinding over the next week.

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone.
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): Inventec and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): Inventec, Walsin Lihwa, Getac Holdings, Hon Hai, Wistron

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 22nd): Inventec, Walsin Lihwa, Getac Holdings, Hon Hai, Wistron

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Inventec, Walsin Lihwa, Getac Holdings, Hon Hai, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Wiwynn, Acer, TSMC.

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Dec 24

Daily Brief United States: Newmont , Livent, MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp
MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone.
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp