Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CRH , James Hardie Industries Plc, Jindal Steel & Power, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Rio2, Glencore , Arq and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
  • James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance
  • The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan
  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project
  • Glencore: Initiation of Coverage
  • ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
  • JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
  • The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
  • With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • It’s a pre-revenue tungsten mining company with the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of mineral resources of tungsten trioxide (WO3) in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
  • Mining operation is conducted by a local subsidiary while JIRI is responsible for the processing operation and sales of the product to its customers.

RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
  • • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
  • • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

Glencore: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Glencore PLC’s 2024 financial results reflect a robust operational year, with the company reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 billion, indicating strong performance across its industrial and marketing segments.
  • The industrial segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, primarily driven by a healthy metals business despite challenging conditions in the metallurgical market.
  • The recent integration of the EVR coal business contributed significantly, adding $1 billion to EBITDA in the latter half of the year.

ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

By Water Tower Research

  • Following ARQ’s 4Q24 results, we are fine-tuning our estimates and introducing quarterly forecasts.
  • ARQ is an environmental tech company producing activated carbon (AC) products that reduce or reverse environmental liabilities.
  • Among many applications, AC products remove “forever chemicals” from public drinking water, remediate contaminated soil and ground water, and remove impurities from renewable natural gas. 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Ainos , Fagron, Max Healthcare Institute and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • AIMD: Deep Dive into AI-Powered Smell in Semi Fabs and Robotics After Recent Partnerships
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 10 April (Fagron)
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

AIMD: Deep Dive into AI-Powered Smell in Semi Fabs and Robotics After Recent Partnerships

By Water Tower Research

  • AI Nose for healthcare, industrials, and robotics. Ainos is digitizing smell with AI Nose to capture airborne chemical signatures, using AI-powered processes to immediately classify and identify scents in any environment.
  • Initially focused on healthcare, Ainos is developing a women’s health test, Ainos Flora with AI Nose, in addition to an elderly care project with Japanese partners to assist caregivers in monitoring seniors.
  • Ainos recently entered partnerships with ugo and ASE, expanding AI Nose development to robotics and industrial applications.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 10 April (Fagron)

By The IDEA!

  • organic revenue CAGR at CER: high single digit to low double digits                       
  • REBITDA margin: approx. 21.0% by 2027, with a progressive increase through 2030 
  • Operating Cash Flow conversion: ≥70% 

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Multi-Pronged Expansion Strategy Augurs Well for Sustainable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) completed the acquisition of Jaypee Healthcare in last November, thereby adding 700 beds. Jaypee added INR1,120M revenue with an operating EBITDA of INR230M in Q3FY25.
  • Max is setting up ~500 bedded hospital at Thane, Maharashtra on an asset-light built-to-suit basis. The proposed construction of hospital premises is expected to be completed by 2028.
  • Current expansion plan indicates significant capacity ramp-up (20%+) in FY26, and majority of which will come by Q1, thereby generating scope for revenue realization for most part of the year.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Rotem Company, Delhivery , Ocean Wilsons Holdings, Creek & River, 4Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)
  • Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital
  • Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
  • Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
  • The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

Event Driven: Delhivery Acquires Ecom Express as Distress Sale

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) acquired a 99.4% stake in Ecom Express for ₹1,407 crore, months after Ecom’s failed IPO and rights issue raised similar funds.
  • The deal combines two logistics leaders, expands Tier-2/3 reach, and promises cost efficiency, route optimization, and stronger pricing discipline in India’s fast-growing B2C e-commerce logistics.
  • Despite red flags in Ecom and DRHP disputes, Delhivery may have picked up a distressed but strategic asset at a bargain, with upside from network and tech integration.

Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Disposal to generate surplus capital

By Edison Investment Research

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

Creek & River (4763 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
  • Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 03/04/2025

By Hybridan

  • The provider of data and technology for sports, fitness and wellness organisations to optimise operational and investment decisions, announced that, following a competitive tender, it has secured a contract renewal and expansion with Sport England worth up to £4m over four years in equal terms.
  • Sport England initially procured 4GLOBAL in 2021 to provide performance data from public leisure facilities through its platform, Moving Communities, a decision-support tool that uses 4GLOBAL’s dataset to aid understanding of where and how people engage in physical activity, enabling a more evidence-based approach to public investment.
  • The platform has since played a central role in programmes such as the National Leisure Recovery Fund and the Swimming Pool Support Fund, tracking over 9 million active people across 1,000+ leisure facilities daily.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Financials: American International Group, Longfor Properties, RHB Bank Bhd, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • American Airlines Braces for Turbulence: Are Tariffs and Corporate Cuts Threatening Its 2025 Takeoff?
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Malaysian Banks Screen; Stick with RHB Bank and CIMB
  • SES AI Corp. – 1Q25 Revenue Preview Demonstrates Continuing Traction on Commercialization

American Airlines Braces for Turbulence: Are Tariffs and Corporate Cuts Threatening Its 2025 Takeoff?

By Baptista Research

  • American Airlines is navigating a complex and turbulent operating environment as macroeconomic pressures, declining consumer confidence, and reduced corporate travel weigh heavily on the airline industry.
  • While the broader sector has been battered by a steep drop in airline stock valuations—American Airlines itself has declined 24% in the past month alone—American has nonetheless posted a strong financial performance in recent quarters.
  • In Q4, the carrier reported an adjusted pretax profit of $808 million and EPS of $0.86, beating guidance and contributing to a full-year adjusted pretax profit of $1.8 billion.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Sunny Optical, Greentown China

  • In the US, the March CPI came in below estimates at negative 0.1% m-o-m (0.1% e / 0.2% p) and 2.4% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.8% p). This was driven by lower energy costs, as well as a decline in discretionary spending such as airfares, used vehicles and hotels. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 2.8% y-o-y (3.0% e / 3.1% p).

  • The White House has clarified that US President Donald Trump’s total tariffs on Chinese imports stands at 145%, comprising a 125% reciprocal tariff rate on top of the existing 20% duty imposed earlier in February and March.

Malaysian Banks Screen; Stick with RHB Bank and CIMB

By Victor Galliano

  • RHB Bank remains our Malaysian bank top pick, as shown in our scorecard; CIMB shares have de-rated markedly year-to-date and are deep value
  • Scorecard topping RHB Bank has strong fundamental value credentials and it is narrowing the gap on returns with peers, whilst also improving its delinquency ratio
  • CIMB ranks third on our scorecard, due to its high NPL ratio but credit quality is improving; we see scope for operating efficiency gains and it has very attractive valuations

SES AI Corp. – 1Q25 Revenue Preview Demonstrates Continuing Traction on Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • SES announced on Tuesday that its 1Q25 revenue would be $5-5.8 million, in line with prior guidance (see our summary note from last quarter).
  • At that time, the company said that FY25 revenue would be $15- 25 million.
  • In it 1Q25 preview, SES sighted the same revenue streams it had previously called out: materials. discovery for EV batteries, sales of its 2170 Li-ion cells into the drone space, and the beginning of the commercialization of its technology for BESS for data centers.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Chagee Holdings, Suzuki Motor, Harley Davidson, Capri Holdings , Compass, Yoshinoya Holdings, Fast Retailing, Levi Strauss & Co, Aeon Fantasy and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks
  • Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Harley-Davidson Is Losing Speed: Will A New CEO Fix The Sales Slump Amid Tariff Turmoil?
  • Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI
  • Compass Group: Initiation of Coverage
  • Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results
  • Levi Strauss Rides DTC Momentum—But Will Tariffs Dent the Denim Giant?
  • Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

  • Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
  • The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
  • There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market. 

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki’s share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
  • However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Harley-Davidson Is Losing Speed: Will A New CEO Fix The Sales Slump Amid Tariff Turmoil?

By Baptista Research

  • Harley-Davidson is navigating a critical crossroads as it searches for a new CEO to replace Jochen Zeitz, who recently announced plans to retire after five years at the helm.
  • This leadership transition comes at a precarious time for the iconic motorcycle brand, which is grappling with a sustained decline in sales, intensifying macroeconomic pressures, and the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs—particularly from the European Union.
  • In 2024, global retail sales dropped by 7%, with international sales falling a steep 13%, reflecting a broader downturn in discretionary spending.

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.
  • Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.
  • A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.

Compass Group: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Compass Group PLC has released its full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 16% increase in operating profit and an 11% growth in organic revenue.
  • The company reported a margin progression of 30 basis points, taking it to 7.1%.
  • This has been complemented by a net new business growth of 4.2%, further gaining momentum in the second half of the year.

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated sales reached JPY205.0bn (+9.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY7.3bn (-8.4% YoY) and net income JPY3.8bn (-32.1% YoY).
  • The company forecasts FY02/26 sales at JPY225.0bn (+9.8% YoY), with operating profit expected to rise 1.3% YoY.
  • The company achieved JPY187.5bn sales in FY02/24, surpassing its JPY180.0bn target, due to agile menu price revisions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results

By Nico Rosti

  • Mark Chadwick highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP) ‘s outlook in 2 recent insights, before and after Q2 earnings: his DCF model for this stock suggests roughly a +13% upside.
  • This week the stock rallied from the crash at the start of the week, closing a bit higher than the previous week (it had closed 1 week down, CC=-1).
  • Assuming the stock may rally further from here, pushed by good Q2 results, let’s have a look to our model to analyze some profit targets.

Levi Strauss Rides DTC Momentum—But Will Tariffs Dent the Denim Giant?

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss & Co. reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, exhibiting growth across key financial metrics amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s strategic shift towards a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model has begun to bear fruit, as evidenced by a 9% increase in organic net revenue, primarily driven by a 12% rise in DTC sales.
  • These results showcase the impact of successful new store openings, positive comparable growth, and robust e-commerce performance.

Aeon Fantasy (4343 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY02/25 sales increased by 6.7% YoY, with operating profit up 21.2% YoY, but recurring profit declined 23.4% YoY.
  • FY02/26 forecasts sales of JPY92.2bn (+5.7% YoY), operating profit of JPY7.3bn (+68.0% YoY), and net income of JPY2.5bn.
  • The company plans to open new facility formats and expand in regional cities, focusing on profitability and efficiency.

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Apr 12
0

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Tsuruha Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Posco Future M, CJ Corp, Chagee Holdings, Samsung SDI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
  • Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election
  • Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings
  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks
  • Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang
  • UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

By Travis Lundy

  • In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
  • Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
  • But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
  • The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
  • Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

By Sanghyun Park

  • The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
  • What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
  • It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
  • Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
  • We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

Clearing Up the Confusion: Ex-Rights Trading in Korean Rights Offerings

By Sanghyun Park

  • Not much juice at ex-rights — price move’s small, and shorting’s risky with recall risk and having to compensate the lender for lost rights.
  • Some locals chase rights instead, but it’s not really a go-to trade with all the cost/efficiency uncertainty.
  • First round price pre–ex-rights sets the floor for arb margins and anchors rights pricing once they start trading — key level to keep in the playbook.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Chinese Tea Company Moves Forward with IPO Despite Macro Risks

By IPO Boutique

  • Chinese Tea Company is moving ahead with the IPO despite heavy Macro-Economic winds.
  • The company is seeking up to $412m with a high-end pricing and already includes $205m worth of buying on the cover of the prospectus.
  • There are. more questions than answers regarding this IPO due to the current uncertainty in the market. 

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

By Phil Rush

  • Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
  • Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
  • Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): Lg Energy Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): Lg Energy Solution, Samsung H.I., Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): James Hardie Industries, Transurban, Coles

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): Lg Energy Solution, Samsung H.I., Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Apr 4th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Lg Energy Solution, Samsung H.I., Hd Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hd Hyundai Electric, Sk Innovation.

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): James Hardie Industries, Transurban, Coles

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in James Hardie Industries, Transurban, Coles, Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining, Goodman.

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election
  • Suzuki Motor Placement Updates – Relative Correction Has Been Decent so Far. But Lacks Buyback
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Attractive Spread Ahead of the Vote on 9 May
  • Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer
  • Exploring Strategic Reviews: Key Opportunities in Biopharma and Food Sectors
  • Alcon’s Strategic Acquisition of Lensar: Potential 23% Upside with CVR Payout and Antitrust Considerations

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

By Travis Lundy

  • In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
  • Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
  • But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500

By Arun George

  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) at JPY4,500 per share, a 4.7% premium to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY4,300 hostile offer.
  • The offer is scheduled to start on 23 April, ahead of Yageo’s 7 May start. The Board intends to recommend the Minebea offer and oppose the Yageo offer. 
  • Due to its low premium to the Yageo offer, at least another bidding round is highly probable, and the Minebea offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation.

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

By Sanghyun Park

  • The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
  • What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
  • It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

Suzuki Motor Placement Updates – Relative Correction Has Been Decent so Far. But Lacks Buyback

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
  • While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares had corrected in line with other auto players going into the deal launch.
  • In this note, we compare the deal to some of the past deals and talk about the updates since our last note.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Attractive Spread Ahead of the Vote on 9 May

By Arun George

  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)’s IFA considers Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 May.
  • The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). FMR holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. 
  • The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/19.0%.

Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates

By David Blennerhassett

  • After rejecting  Gold Fields (GFI SJ)‘s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
  • After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
  • But don’t expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s Scheme vote on the 16th April.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th December 2024, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (2.95% stakeholder), for shares not held. 
  • The Tangs are offerings $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a 71% premium to undisturbed. Despite the very low price-to-book multiple, this transaction looks done.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, with payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable“.

Exploring Strategic Reviews: Key Opportunities in Biopharma and Food Sectors

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) faces a pending takeover by Danone, with a potential board overhaul and strategic acquisition synergies.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) anticipates FDA approval for Yutrepia, challenging UTHR’s monopoly, with potential valuation gap closure post-commercialization.
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) received a buyout offer from Biogen, with ongoing strategic review and potential for increased offer price.

Alcon’s Strategic Acquisition of Lensar: Potential 23% Upside with CVR Payout and Antitrust Considerations

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lensar is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share in cash plus a CVR worth up to $2.75/share.
  • The CVR payout requires Lensar’s systems to reach 614,000 procedures across 2026 and 2027, needing a 27% CAGR.
  • North Run, holding 56% economic ownership, will receive CVRs only on common shares and warrants, not preferred shares.

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief ECM: Huge Dental Pre-IPO – China’s Leading Dental Materials Player Rides Industry Tailwinds and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Huge Dental Pre-IPO – China’s Leading Dental Materials Player Rides Industry Tailwinds
  • Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis
  • EBOS Group Placement – Accretive Deal with Synergies
  • IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable

Huge Dental Pre-IPO – China’s Leading Dental Materials Player Rides Industry Tailwinds

By Troy Wong

  • HD as a leading dental materials player in China, has achieved robust topline growth over the track record period, driven by its core product lines and favorable industry tailwinds
  • The company generates most of its revenue from the Chinese market, relying heavily on a distribution-led strategy for market expansion.
  • Some areas of concern include signs of a slowdown in growth and potential margin compression if the shift in product mix continues.

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
  • Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
  • We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

EBOS Group Placement – Accretive Deal with Synergies

By Nicholas Tan

  • Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) aims to raise around US$122m in order to partly fund its acquisition of SVS Veterinary Supplies (SVS).
  • This will complement the company’s strategy of investing for growth and the second acquisition done in 2H25.
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable

By Rosita Fernandes

  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN)  (ISL) is planning to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • ISL is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions. As per CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24.
  • ISL offers enterprise workplace solutions, from large hubs to small spokes, enhancing employee experience through integrated interiors, amenities, and various value-added services for a seamless, efficient office environment.

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Apr 11
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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash
  • Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation
  • Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 sank 3.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.3%; Yen Stronger, Nikkei Futs down
  • Fast Retailing forecasts a 10% rise in consolidated net profit to 410 billion yen for the fiscal year ending August 2025, up 25 billion yen from prior estimates
  • Effissimo Capital Management raised its Ricoh stake to 21.71%. Note that Effissimo also owns 5.81% of Konica Minolta, aiming to influence management and proposals

Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Crude oil prices dropped below $60 as OPEC+ boosted output and China retaliated with tariffs, sparking global trade and demand concerns.
  • For India, every $10/bbl fall can cut CAD by 0.5% of GDP, ease inflation by 0.3%, but risks lower fiscal revenue due to fuel tax dependence.
  • While beneficial short-term, India must prepare for volatility—by diversifying energy, insulating fiscal math, and enhancing trade resilience amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

By Andrew Jackson

  • Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump’s bill adds to fiscal imbalance.
  • Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.
  • Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.

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