Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

Korean Air – Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval

By Neil Glynn

  • Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.
  • Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.
  • Most M&A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Medco Energi, Cobalt Blue Holdings, Akora Resources, Resources & Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023
  • Cobalt Blue Holdings – Mining-To-Refining Cobalt for Global Battery Supply Chain
  • Akora Resources Ltd – Developing High-Grade Iron Ore for the Green Steel Future
  • Resources & Energy Group – Nickel, Cobalt and Gold Focus in Western Australia

Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Green Energy
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…

Cobalt Blue Holdings – Mining-To-Refining Cobalt for Global Battery Supply Chain

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cobalt Blue Holdings Ltd (ASX:COB) is a mining and mineral processing company focused onadvancing cobalt mining and refining operations in Australia.
  • The company is developing the Broken Hill Cobalt Project (BHCP) in far west NSW and concurrently in planning on a Kwinanacobalt refinery in WA with a definitive feasibility study underway.
  • Cobalt Blue Holdings wasfounded in 2016 and listed on the ASX in early 2017. 

Akora Resources Ltd – Developing High-Grade Iron Ore for the Green Steel Future

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Akora Resources Ltd (ASX:AKO) is an exploration company engaged in the development of three iron ore projects, Bekisopa, Tratramarina and Ambodilafa, in Madagascar.
  • The company has initially focused on Bekisopa, which has a maiden resource of 194.7Mt with the potential for significant high-grade lump direct ship ore (DSO).
  • The Indicated DSO is 4.4Mt at 61% Fe, “Green Steel” 34Mt at 58% DTR to 69% Fe concentrate. 

Resources & Energy Group – Nickel, Cobalt and Gold Focus in Western Australia

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Resources & Energy Group Ltd (ASX:REZ) is an exploration company engaged in the development of its flagship East Menzies gold project, 130km north of Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
  • The company has been operating as a gold, nickel and cobalt exploration and development company since 2015 and currently has gold and silver resources of 183koz gold and 862koz silver.
  • REZ recently announced (17-Oct) that optimisation studies at the Goodenough and Maranoa gold prospects within the East Menzies district had confirmed an opportunity for a low cost, near- term open cut mining operation at Goodenough, which had previously been worked as an underground resource with historic production of ~21,532t at 14.91g/t. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

Weekly Wrap – 27 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Green Energy
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Selvas AI Inc, Alibaba (ADR), Intel Corp, Mediatek Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play
  • First Run of Global Semis’ Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery
  • Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q23F Results in Line, 2024F Smartphone Outlook Can Grow a Double Digits.

Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • L&F will likely be listed on the KOSPI in mid-December. The top reserved issue within the KOSDAQ 150 IT Sector will be added to the index via an ad-hoc change.
  • Selvas AI stands as the foremost candidate for the screened top reserved issue, with a mere two trading days remaining in the six-month screening period.
  • Given the relatively limited proactive position buildup due to more uncertainty regarding timing, the price impact leading up to the effective date might become even more significant.

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

By Eric Chen

  • The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
  • While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
  • Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil & gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  

First Run of Global Semis’ Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

By Andrew Lu

  • We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
  • We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
  • We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.

Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $14.2 billion, some $800 million above the guided midpoint, down 8% YoY but up 10% sequentially.
  • Current quarter revenue guided up QoQ to $15.1 billion at the midpoint, shares up 10% 
  • Intel is betting big on a return to a 300 million unit PC TAM. Is this realistic?

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q23F Results in Line, 2024F Smartphone Outlook Can Grow a Double Digits.

By Patrick Liao

  • MediaTek’s 4Q23F revenue guidance falls in line with our prior expectation. The general outlook is for double-digit growth in 2024F.
  • MediaTek believes that the 3nm SoC will certainly perform differently in 2H24F.  
  • MediaTek will pay NT$24 DPS for 1H23 earnings, and the dividend will be paid on 1/31, 2024F.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief ECM: CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies

CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CARGO Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech company developing treatments for various lymphomas, filed for an IPO to fund its Phase 2 clinical trials of CRG-022, a lead program in the pipeline. 
  • The biotech firm was backed by founding investor Samsara BioCapital and top-tier healthcare VC firms, including Third Rock Ventures, Perceptive Advisors, and Nextech Invest.
  • The company’s lead program, CRG-022, is focused on patients with large B-cell lymphoma whose disease relapsed and targets CD-22 that has been expressed in 81% to 100% of DLBCL patients. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding
  • First Run of Global Semis’ Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery
  • Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues
  • Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected
  • US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23
  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted
  • Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course
  • Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

By Eric Chen

  • The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
  • While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
  • Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil & gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Back on an Even Keel

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance‘s 3Q2023 results reflected the lingering impact of May’s Malware incident which interrupted collections but this situation has now been remedied and the company can resume rebuilding its book.
  • 4Q2023 will likely see further write-offs but an improvement in credit costs but the company will remain cautious on building its book with a full recovery expected in 2H2024. 
  • BFI Finance remains the best-quality multi-finance company in Indonesia, with a low cost of funds and a differentiated target market of used 4W and 2W non-dealer loans. Valuations are attractive. 

Asian Dividend Gems: Tingyi Holding

By Douglas Kim

  • Shares of Tingyi Holding are oversold. It has high dividend yield and attractive valuations. Its core instant noodles and beverage businesses are turning around this year. 
  • The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.62 for Tingyi in 2023 which would suggest a dividend yield of 6.1%. Tingyi Holding’s dividend yield averaged 5% annually from 2018 to 2022.
  • Tingyi’s “Master Kong” instant noodle is one of the best known brands in China. The company is also one of the largest producers and distributors of beverages in China. 

First Run of Global Semis’ Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

By Andrew Lu

  • We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
  • We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
  • We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.

Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda’s 2QFY03/2024 revenues increased 4.1% YoY beating consensus estimates by 6%. However, Takeda reported an operating loss of ¥49.3bn for the quarter due to impairment losses.
  • As we expected, recent setback in some of Takeda’s clinical trials have led to write-downs and triggered a downward revision to full-year profit guidance.
  • There has been excessive price reaction to these setbacks, however, Takeda continues to progress with its pipeline development with some newly launched drugs showing great potential.

Vinda International (3331 HK):  Business Recovering As Expected

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) announced 3Q23 results, with net profit up 37% yoy as margins started to recover. 
  • Reported sales growth picked up speed, growing at 8% yoy (vs. 4% growth in 1H23), and 12% at constant exchange rates (vs. 10% growth in 1H23). 
  • More importantly, gross margin recovered quarter-on-quarter from a 0.2ppt decline in 2Q23 to a 2.3ppt increase in 3Q23.

US Banks – Office Exposures, Interest Spread Trends to 3Q23

By Victor Galliano

  • US Banks’ office credit exposures represent a big part of the sector’s credit quality concerns, given the decline in office space occupancy and rising interest rates
  • Industry data shows that bank funding costs are rising fast, and 3Q23 bank spread trends are mixed; banks with greater mortgage exposure are potentially at greater risk of narrowing spreads
  • We stick with Capital One for its high lending spreads, negligible mortgage exposure and limited office credit exposure with high coverage; Capital One also has healthy overall NPL coverage

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
  • Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
  • Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.

Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

By Victor Galliano

  • So far in 4Q23, Japanese banks’ share prices have registered a mixed performance, in part due to the unsettled global market conditions; yet the Japanese bond yield curve keeps steepening
  • We assess the top twelve Japanese commercial banks by market capitalisation, and we believe that Japanese banks remain good value with, a rare thing, improving fundamentals
  • Ahead of the September results, we stick with our buys on Resona, Mizuho and SMFG; Resona has lagged deserving to re-rate further, and we add Hachijuni to our buy list

Intel. Beat & Raise Sends Shares Soaring After Hours

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $14.2 billion, some $800 million above the guided midpoint, down 8% YoY but up 10% sequentially.
  • Current quarter revenue guided up QoQ to $15.1 billion at the midpoint, shares up 10% 
  • Intel is betting big on a return to a 300 million unit PC TAM. Is this realistic?

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Takeda Pharmaceutical, Cargo Therapeutics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues
  • CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies

Takeda: Guidance Lowered Due to Setbacks in Clinical Trials but Pipeline Development Continues

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda’s 2QFY03/2024 revenues increased 4.1% YoY beating consensus estimates by 6%. However, Takeda reported an operating loss of ¥49.3bn for the quarter due to impairment losses.
  • As we expected, recent setback in some of Takeda’s clinical trials have led to write-downs and triggered a downward revision to full-year profit guidance.
  • There has been excessive price reaction to these setbacks, however, Takeda continues to progress with its pipeline development with some newly launched drugs showing great potential.

CARGO Therapeutics IPO Preview: A Promising Pipeline of Next-Gen CAR T-Cell Therapies

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CARGO Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech company developing treatments for various lymphomas, filed for an IPO to fund its Phase 2 clinical trials of CRG-022, a lead program in the pipeline. 
  • The biotech firm was backed by founding investor Samsara BioCapital and top-tier healthcare VC firms, including Third Rock Ventures, Perceptive Advisors, and Nextech Invest.
  • The company’s lead program, CRG-022, is focused on patients with large B-cell lymphoma whose disease relapsed and targets CD-22 that has been expressed in 81% to 100% of DLBCL patients. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us
  • Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

Japan Post Bank (7182) October TOPIX FFW Upweight Upon Us

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) gets a dramatic upweight in TOPIX on Monday 30 October. There is a LOT of stock to buy. Call it US$2.2bn. 
  • Shares have to come from someplace. Basically it will all come from retail or from those who pre-positioned themselves in the stock (buying from retail). Some could come from short-sellers.
  • The stock WAS not cheap vs regional banks (what I see as their best set of comps) and the Q2 Unrealised Loss on Securities has ballooned. But care is needed.

Passive Flow Trading Opportunities Emerge from L&F’s Transition to KOSPI Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • L&F will likely be listed on the KOSPI in mid-December. The top reserved issue within the KOSDAQ 150 IT Sector will be added to the index via an ad-hoc change.
  • Selvas AI stands as the foremost candidate for the screened top reserved issue, with a mere two trading days remaining in the six-month screening period.
  • Given the relatively limited proactive position buildup due to more uncertainty regarding timing, the price impact leading up to the effective date might become even more significant.

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Stellantis’ Stake Doesn’t Come Cheap

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stellantis, a merger between France’s PSA with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ), is buying a 17% stake (14.53% fully diluted) in Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK). 
  • Leapmotor will issue 194mn H shares at HK$43.8/share, a 19% premium to last close, in a HK$8.51bn transaction. Stellantis will also hold a 51% stake in newly formed JV. 
  • Stellantis is paying a chunky 3.64x market cap-trailing-revenue; but ~2.25x forward revs, which compares to the average for key peers of 1.9x.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (27 Oct): Kwoks Still Buying SHK; Chairman Selling Golden Solar

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight are Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Golden Solar New Energy Technology Holdings (1121 HK).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free