Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 01
0

Most Read: Lasertec Corp, ICICI Securities Ltd, Nickel Asia, Power Grid Corporation Of India, SBI Shinsei Bank, Keiyo Co Ltd, Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings, Kasumigaseki Capital, Ecoeye, SGX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Rebal – Beating a Dead Horse
  • ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles
  • PCOMP Adhoc Index Rebalance: NIKL to Replace UBP in a BIG Move
  • NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry
  • Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
  • DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24
  • Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
  • Ecoeye IPO Preview
  • Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange Lead Exchange-Owned ESG Indexer Growth

Nikkei 225 Rebal – Beating a Dead Horse

By Travis Lundy

  • The September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is tomorrow at the close. This will engender a lot of buying of three names, and a lot of selling of 3 names.  
  • It will also engender a funding trade of nearly ¥460bn. 
  • I am going to beat the dead horse and warn about certain issues with this rebalance.

ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles

By Nimish Maheshwari

PCOMP Adhoc Index Rebalance: NIKL to Replace UBP in a BIG Move

By Brian Freitas

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

By Brian Freitas

  • The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
  • Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
  • The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures & options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.

Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
  • I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
  • Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.

DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, DCM Holdings (3050 JP) announced it would launch a friendly takeover by Tender Offer for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) 
  • This is totally not a surprise. They signed a Business and Capital Alliance in 2017. DCM bought more at a premium last autumn. This takeover was obvious in the long-term.
  • There are enough friendly holders to get this done. Activism would be hard unless it was really cheap, which it does not seem to be, but process wasn’t great. 

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
  • Nike’s inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales.
  • Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

By Travis Lundy

  • Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
  • The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
  • This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.

Ecoeye IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecoeye is getting ready to complete its IPO on the KOSDAQ exchange in November. Ecoeye specializes in carbon emission rights related businesses. 
  • The IPO price range is from 28,500 won to 34,800 won per share. The IPO offering amount is from 59.3 billion won to 72.1 billion won. 
  • Established in 2005, Ecoeye makes money through carbon emissions trading and brokerage, carbon reduction business, carbon emissions trading system, and operation consulting. 

Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange Lead Exchange-Owned ESG Indexer Growth

By Kyle Rudden

  • Absolute value of index-linked assets is the ultimate measure of market share, but it misses an important aspect of the ESG-related indexing market – i.e., relative market share growth.
  • A category of ESG index providers that leads vis-à-vis relative growth is exchange-owned ESG index providers, a group which currently accounts for US$46.3 billion in indexed assets.
  • Asian exchange-owned ESG indexers are the clear leaders in that subcategory, with Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and Korea Exchange leading that cohort with double-digit growth.

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Oct 01
0

Daily Brief Japan: SBI Shinsei Bank, Kasumigaseki Capital, JMDC , Toshiba Corp, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
  • Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.

Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
  • I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
  • Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

By Travis Lundy

  • Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
  • The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
  • This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec

By David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.

By David Blennerhassett

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 29th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief ESG: Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited
  • Victoria – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Hunt Oil – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Regardless of “TSE request,” only 31% of prime market listed companies disclosed “measures to realize management with awareness of cost of capital and stock price” in their corporate governance reports.
  • The lack of ready disclosure measures on companies’ side seems to be the reason why few companies disclosed information, but many of those that did are also poor in content.
  • For companies with large shareholders and low P/B, the parent company has not yet TOB or sold the company, which may be the reason for the delay in disclosure.

Victoria – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Victoria’s ESG as “Weak”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Material” and Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Victoria PLC designs, manufactures and distributes flooring products across the UK, Continental Europe and Australia.

Hunt Oil – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Hunt Oil’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. However, the Environmental pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Hunt Oil Company of Peru LLC, Sucursal del Peru (HOCP) is a wholly owned, indirect subsidiary of Hunt Oil Company, one of the largest privately owned hydrocarbon companies in the US.

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

By Jeroen Blokland

  • First and foremost, we are not positive about US homebuilders due to the sharp decline in housing market activity caused by the significantly increased mortgage rates.
  • The correlation between the future performance of the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index relative to the broad S&P 500 Index and the level of the NAHB Market Index is ZERO.
  • In addition, there is no correlation between the performance of US homebuilders and CHANGES in the NAHB Market Index.

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023
  • Bond Market Monitor: Prime Time Continues
  • Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Launch of CORSIA Carbon Credit Futures Market & Other Major Developments

Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Tata Steel Ltd
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…

Bond Market Monitor: Prime Time Continues

By Warut Promboon

  • Our thesis has not changed even though the Federal Reserve (the Fed) appears to be more hawkish than many investors thought.
  • We expect countries with lagging rate cycles, such as China and Thailand, to suffer capital outflows and rising yields.
  • In Asia, the spotlights remain on Indonesia and India where macroeconomic fundamentals continue to improve.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Launch of CORSIA Carbon Credit Futures Market & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. had a strong quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.43, an increase of 8% over the prior year.
  • In the Exchange segment, net revenues totaled $1.1 billion, up 9% over the prior year.
  • Also, because of these improvements, they have seen a roughly 60% increase in energy volume performed through their ICE Chat platform over the first half of this year.

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
  • This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
  • We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief ECM: Shiyue Daotian IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shiyue Daotian IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • Ecoeye IPO Preview

Shiyue Daotian IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH) is looking to raise up to US$108m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$200m.
  • Shiyue Daotian is a pantry staple food company in China, providing consumers with pre-packaged premium rice, whole grain, bean, and dried food products.
  • In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates and share our thoughts on valuation.

Ecoeye IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecoeye is getting ready to complete its IPO on the KOSDAQ exchange in November. Ecoeye specializes in carbon emission rights related businesses. 
  • The IPO price range is from 28,500 won to 34,800 won per share. The IPO offering amount is from 59.3 billion won to 72.1 billion won. 
  • Established in 2005, Ecoeye makes money through carbon emissions trading and brokerage, carbon reduction business, carbon emissions trading system, and operation consulting. 

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
  • Keiyo (8168 JP): DCM’s JPY1,300 Tender Offer
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good…
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Shutdown or Meltdown?

DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, DCM Holdings (3050 JP) announced it would launch a friendly takeover by Tender Offer for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) 
  • This is totally not a surprise. They signed a Business and Capital Alliance in 2017. DCM bought more at a premium last autumn. This takeover was obvious in the long-term.
  • There are enough friendly holders to get this done. Activism would be hard unless it was really cheap, which it does not seem to be, but process wasn’t great. 

Keiyo (8168 JP): DCM’s JPY1,300 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) has recommended DCM Holdings (3050 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,300 per share, a 58.3% premium to the undisturbed price (29 September).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 35.68% ownership ratio.
  • Irrevocables represent a 0.88% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 50.4% minority acceptance rate, which is achievable as the offer price represents a ten-year high.

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good…

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August’s lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).
  • A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).
  • One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Shutdown or Meltdown?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent/Netease: Zeroed for Two Rounds of Game Approval and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent/Netease: Zeroed for Two Rounds of Game Approval
  • SMIC’s Semi Shocker
  • Baidu: Back in the Mix
  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24
  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Transforming and Trendy
  • RPSG Ventures: Strong Profitability from IPL
  • kopi-C with Thakral’s CEO: “We’ve re-invented ourselves from VCRs to Drones”
  • 4Paradigm: Fears About The Entity List Are Exaggerated, Bullish On AI and SageGPT, PT: HK$86
  • China’s Sinopec Dives Deeper Into Geothermal Energy
  • TPL: The Unhedged

Tencent/Netease: Zeroed for Two Rounds of Game Approval

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for September batch. The number of games approved is in-line with the pace of approval in recent month.
  • Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Neither Tencent or Netease received approval for any game. Same thing happened for July batch.

SMIC’s Semi Shocker

By William Keating

  • The latest Mate 60 Kirin SOC is a major accomplishment for the Huawei, SMIC combo
  • SMIC will likely continue to refine their N+2 node and develop a 5nm-like process within 2-3 years, even without the use of EUV
  • SMIC’s accomplishment is not reflected in its share price which lies midways between 52 week highs & lows

Baidu: Back in the Mix

By Steven Holden

  • After a heavy decline in ownership between 2016 and 2020, active Asia Ex-Japan managers are re-engaging with Baidu Inc.
  • Ownership levels are at 4-year highs, with Baidu one of the key beneficiaries of manager rotation this year.
  • Baidu is the 3rd largest holding in the Communication Services sector, but there a plenty of funds with a history of ownership who remain on the sidelines for now.

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
  • Nike’s inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales.
  • Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Transforming and Trendy

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) is the key player in the department store space in Indonesia with a significant transformation well underway to drive future growth and profitability.
  • The company had a slightly disappointing Lebaran performance given some seasonal disparities but continues to make significant progress in revamping its merchandise mix, with a strong omnichannel yielding results. 
  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) looks exceptionally cheap on 4.0x FY2024E PER, and with a dividend yield of 20.0% and with earnings expected to rebound in 2024E.

RPSG Ventures: Strong Profitability from IPL

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Helped by the share in the incremental IPL media rights value, RPSG Venture’s (RPSGV) revenue from the sports business revenue jumped to INR 590cr+ in Q1FY24 vs INR 300cr+ YoY.
  • Losses in the FMCG business narrowed to INR 63cr vs INR 90cr YoY and INR 70cr QoQ. FMCG revenues continue to be at around INR 400cr+ annualized run-rate.
  • RPSGV’s BPO business, Firstsource Solutions (FSOL IN) saw stabilization in de-growth and margins. Margins expanded by 375bp during Q1FY24.

kopi-C with Thakral’s CEO: “We’ve re-invented ourselves from VCRs to Drones”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with Thakral’s CEO: “We’ve re-invented ourselves from VCRs to Drones” With the faster pace of development in sectors nowadays, adaptability and willingness to learn from others are crucial in business, says Thakral’s CEO Inderbethal Singh Thakral Building on the momentum, Thakral has invested in Skylark Drones, a start-up specialising in integrating drones in workflows in different industries.

4Paradigm: Fears About The Entity List Are Exaggerated, Bullish On AI and SageGPT, PT: HK$86

By Andrei Zakharov

  • 4Paradigm, a self-developed AI platform and scenario-specific AI applications provider, has completed an IPO and raised net proceeds of ~HK$836M, excluding the over-allotment option. 
  • Founder-Led AI unicorn priced its IPO at the bottom end of the range at HK$55.60 per share. Cornerstone investors agreed to purchase ~13.6M H shares at the IPO price. 
  • I like the company’s leadership position in China’s fastest-growing decision-making AI market, large TAM for their enterprise-grade generative AI offering SageGPT and top-tier VC investors. 

China’s Sinopec Dives Deeper Into Geothermal Energy

By Caixin Global

  • China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the state-owned energy giant known as Sinopec, is making a bigger push into a renewable energy generated by heat within the earth as the country looks to diversify its sources of green energy.
  • Sinopec’s push could serve as a catalyst for fast-tracking the exploration and use of geothermal energy, and spur the development of related technologies in the country, experts said.
  • The company said on social media on Sept. 14 that it was expecting a “major development” in its geothermal heating segment and that it was on track to expand its service to more than 60 cities in over 10 regions in China by the end of the year.

TPL: The Unhedged

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The return of higher crude oil prices could result in Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reporting higher than expected revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2023
  • TPL does not hedge its exposure to energy prices, which would have an outsize benefit when prices move higher like they have in the third quarter
  • Crude oil production has been rising even though total rig count has also declined from levels reached earlier in the year

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