Daily Briefs

• Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
• Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
• If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). 

• The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched a formal investigation into Waaree Energies, alleging the company evaded anti-dumping and countervailing duties by mislabeling Chinese-made solar products as Indian.  
• The probe, initiated by a U.S. domestic manufacturing coalition, directly threatens India’s growing solar exports to the U.S. and highlights the complexities of global supply chains.
• This investigation introduces significant regulatory and financial risk for Waaree Energies, and the outcome will be a crucial for its ability to participate in the U.S. market.

• Crude futures steadied Friday as oil headed for the strongest weekly gains since June, coming amid disruptions to Russian fuel supplies and heightened tensions between Moscow and NATO.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.53/b (0925 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $69.42/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $65.17/b against a previous close of $64.98/b.
• Fuel shortages in Russia have forced Moscow to extend the ban on gasoline exports and restrict overseas diesel sales.

• Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.
• U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.
• ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.

• Zijin Mining is a rapidly growing global mining powerhouse, having recently become the world’s third-largest mining company by market capitalization, driven by surging gold and copper prices.
• The company exhibits a strong growth trajectory, underpinned by a successful strategy of aggressive international acquisitions and superior operational capabilities that enable faster mine development.
• Despite robust financial performance and a positive commodity outlook, the company’s valuation appears stretched, with high short interest suggesting significant market skepticism.

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Canyon Resources has announced a major equity financing that will bring c A$215m in gross proceeds at A$0.26/share, just 6% below the undisturbed price, significantly strengthening the company’s liquidity position in the run-up to first production in Q1 CY26. Executed in two tranches, the placement will see the new shareholder, Afriland Bourse & Investissement, gaining c 10% in the company alongside Canyon’s cornerstone shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), at 57%. Together with secured debt and cash on hand, these funds will comfortably cover project capex beyond stage 2 production of 2Mtpa.

• Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
• Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
• Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.

• Standard Lithium aims to develop multiple projects in southern Arkansas and East Texas to establish the Smackover Lithium JV as a major domestic supplier of battery-quality lithium.
• The company is the project operator and owns 55% of the JV alongside 45% partner Equinor.
• Measured lithium concentrations in the JV’s projects in South West Arkansas and East Texas are among the highest known concentrations in North America.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nickel Industries
• Front-end UST yields climbed yesterday, following the release of strong Q2/25 GDP and initial jobless claims data.
• The UST curve bear flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST jumping 5 bps to 3.66% and that on the 10Y UST rising 2 bps to 4.17%. Equities fell for a third straight day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declined 0.5% to 6,605 and 22,385, respectively.