Daily Briefs

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

NiSource Wins Big in Rate Cases With Massive Revenue Uplifts—Will Shareholders Reap the Rewards?

NiSource, a diversified energy company engaged primarily in regulated utility operations across six states, reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025.
The company posted an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22 for the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.19.
This performance positions NiSource to achieve the higher end of its annual adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.85 to $1.89, reflecting effective operational management and strategic focus.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,
Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks
Weekly Update (BRSL, SUNN, CON)

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,

By Special Situation Investments

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying much more limited. Big ETF buying turned into ETF selling and tech buying, as suggested.
Last week’s reco Tencent (700 HK) was the top net buy in SOUTHBOUND this past week, up 2.2%, outperforming major HK benchmarks.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks

Smart Share Global’s management consortium offered $1.25/ADS, with Hillhouse’s competing bid at $1.77/ADS, a 33% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s trial delayed to September 22, with Harvest Lane trimming its stake; spread to Cosette’s offer is 47%.
Gore Street Energy Storage faced significant shareholder dissent; RM Funds calls for Chairman’s resignation amid strategic review efforts.

Weekly Update (BRSL, SUNN, CON)

By Richard Howe

In December 2024, Continental’s (XTRA: CON) Executive Board approved spinning off the Automotive group sector by end of 2025, with preparations wrapping up by Q3 2025
The new Automotive company (“Aumovio”) which generates ~€20BN in sales, will begin regular way trading in September.
The automative business has struggled, but management has plans in place to improve margins over time.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Tencent, China Telecom (H), Lenovo, Horizon Robotics, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Intel Corp, Meta, Amdocs Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount
Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI
Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone

Context: The Tencent (700 HK) vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: After Tencent’s recent outperformance, going long the HSI and short Tencent targets an 8% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

By Brian Freitas

China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 – maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Technology Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity had one low conviction ADD/DEL pair “predicted” but there were no name changes announced.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a big FAF upweight, as expected. There are other small changes and big capping/re-capping moves. We see US$3.9bn to trade.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Internet and IT Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
There are 3 ADDs and 3 DELs. We predicted 2/3 ADDs and 3/3 DELs correctly.
The funding flows and FAF re-weight flows are bigger than the ADD/DEL flows but there should be ~US$850mm to trade.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

By Patrick Liao

Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.
Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged.
TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV).

Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI

In a high-stakes move to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, Meta Platforms is radically restructuring its artificial intelligence organization.
The company is dismantling its existing Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) and splitting it into four specialized groups—focused on research, product, infrastructure, and superintelligence.
This development follows months of internal tension and strategic uncertainty, culminating in a significant leadership pivot with the appointment of Scale AI’s founder Alexandr Wang as Meta’s new Chief AI Officer.

Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!

Amdocs recently announced its financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which showcased mixed results and highlighted the company’s strategic focus areas and operational achievements.
The company recorded a revenue of $1.14 billion, marking a 3.5% increase in pro forma constant currency compared to the previous year.
This was aided by significant contributions from various regions, most notably a record quarter in Europe.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux
Rimag Group (2522 HK): Placement Seem Conducive Given The Prospects

ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there was a lack of fireworks from last week’s listing. This week might have some better luck.
On the placements front, there was no dearth of deals with raisings across the region.

Rimag Group (2522 HK): Placement Seem Conducive Given The Prospects

By Tina Banerjee

Jiangxi Rimag Group (2522 HK) is placing 35M shares for subscription at HK$16.76 per share.
The company intends to use the net proceeds to further strengthen their data service capabilities using AI, business expansion through independent investments or acquisitions, and general corporate purpose.
In the medium to long term the company is well-positioned for sustainable growth with its relentless pursuit for new investments, collaborations, and acquisitions.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount
Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!
Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium
MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone

Context: The Tencent (700 HK) vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: After Tencent’s recent outperformance, going long the HSI and short Tencent targets an 8% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Spike Opportunity; ASE Hard Bounce to Prem from Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +25.6% Premium: Latest Spike is Opportunity to Short the ADR Spread
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
ASE: +5.1% Premium; Good Level to Take Profits on Previous Long Since Parity

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

By Patrick Liao

Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.
Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged.
TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV).

Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI

In a high-stakes move to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, Meta Platforms is radically restructuring its artificial intelligence organization.
The company is dismantling its existing Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) and splitting it into four specialized groups—focused on research, product, infrastructure, and superintelligence.
This development follows months of internal tension and strategic uncertainty, culminating in a significant leadership pivot with the appointment of Scale AI’s founder Alexandr Wang as Meta’s new Chief AI Officer.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)‘s 1H25 results are healthy, but there are challenges, including weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs.
Growth is almost entirely driven by online sales, but its plan to expand offline stores rapidly may erode net profit in the near term.
The stock has become the most expensive one in the sector, based on its PERs of 22.4x CY25F and 21.4x CY26F. Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 6.8% is uninspiring.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!

Amdocs recently announced its financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which showcased mixed results and highlighted the company’s strategic focus areas and operational achievements.
The company recorded a revenue of $1.14 billion, marking a 3.5% increase in pro forma constant currency compared to the previous year.
This was aided by significant contributions from various regions, most notably a record quarter in Europe.

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

By Rahul Jain

Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Crypto: Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain

Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain

By Animoca Brands Research

The on-chain real-world asset (RWA) market (ex-stablecoins) has grown to an estimated $24.8B (+57.9% YTD), validated by the presence of institutional giants like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo.
Despite this surge, the current market is a small fraction of the $400T+ estimated “blue-sky” addressable TradFi market, highlighting a significant runway for growth.
The on-chain market is currently dominated by two asset classes that offer utility.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics , J&T Global Express , Boeing Co, Minebea Mitsumi, Curtiss Wright, Watts Water Technologies A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead
Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?
Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents.
There were three ADDs – Pop Mart (9992 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) were expected. China Telecom (H) (728 HK) was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.
It’s not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity expected 1 ADD (Pop Mart (9992 HK)) and 1 DEL (J&T Global Express (1519 HK)) and those names were announced as the sole ADD/DEL pair.
HSCEI sees some capping and re-capping flows but because it has relatively low tracking AUM, the total flows here are limited to about US$400mm.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation presented its financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating robust growth and a favorable outlook.
The company’s sales increased by 12% year-over-year, reaching $877 million, with an organic growth rate of 9%.
A significant portion of this sales growth originated from the Naval and Power segment and Defense Electronics, contributing to a 20% rise in operating income and a 130 basis point expansion in operating margins.

Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

Watts Water Technologies reported strong second-quarter results, reflecting robust execution amidst challenges, with record highs in sales, operating income, and earnings per share.
The company saw an organic sales increase of 6%, driven by favorable pricing and demand, despite ongoing European market weaknesses.
This outcome was further supported by contributions from recent acquisitions and positive foreign exchange rates.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Macro: Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question
A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1
DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question

By Cam Hui

How should investors judge Trumponomics? The question isn’t whether tariffs or anti-immigration policies should be imposed, but to judge their long run effects on growth, inflation and productivity.
While it’s too early to render a full judgment of Trumponomics and his policies, it may be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain.
The preliminary report card is mostly a case of pain and not gain.

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1

By Rikki Malik

Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0

By William Mann

Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.
Inflation report and Fed’s monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.
Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio’s recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

By Sameer Taneja

This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price.
With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton.
Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Financials: Scentre Group, Ethereum, Jones Lang Lasalle and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)
Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens
Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Initiation Of Coverage- Expanding Global Real Estate Dominance With Bold Growth Across U.S. & Asia Pacific!

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens

Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights:Stockland (SGP AU) rallied 7.0% on 20 August after reporting results, creating a gap between the two stocks. Scentre Group (SCG AU) is set to report on 26 August,
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain

By Animoca Brands Research

The on-chain real-world asset (RWA) market (ex-stablecoins) has grown to an estimated $24.8B (+57.9% YTD), validated by the presence of institutional giants like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo.
Despite this surge, the current market is a small fraction of the $400T+ estimated “blue-sky” addressable TradFi market, highlighting a significant runway for growth.
The on-chain market is currently dominated by two asset classes that offer utility.

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Initiation Of Coverage- Expanding Global Real Estate Dominance With Bold Growth Across U.S. & Asia Pacific!

Jones Lang LaSalle, Inc. (JLL) demonstrated a strong performance in its second-quarter 2025 results, reflecting significant progress in both resilient and transactional business lines.
The company achieved a 10% increase in consolidated revenue, a 17% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and a 29% rise in adjusted EPS.
Despite challenges in the broader geopolitical and policy climate, these results underscore JLL’s capacity for sustainable organic growth.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Aug 25

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, CaoCao, Dongfeng Motor, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Great Wall Motor, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery, Smart Share Global, Duolingo, New York Times Co A, Planet Fitness Inc Cl A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……
Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks
Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math
The New York Times: Expansion of Digital Subscriptions to Support Longer-Term Growth Targets!
Planet Fitness: Leveraging Younger Demographics to Drive Sustained Membership Growth

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,

By Special Situation Investments

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying much more limited. Big ETF buying turned into ETF selling and tech buying, as suggested.
Last week’s reco Tencent (700 HK) was the top net buy in SOUTHBOUND this past week, up 2.2%, outperforming major HK benchmarks.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)‘s 1H25 results are healthy, but there are challenges, including weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs.
Growth is almost entirely driven by online sales, but its plan to expand offline stores rapidly may erode net profit in the near term.
The stock has become the most expensive one in the sector, based on its PERs of 22.4x CY25F and 21.4x CY26F. Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 6.8% is uninspiring.

Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks

Smart Share Global’s management consortium offered $1.25/ADS, with Hillhouse’s competing bid at $1.77/ADS, a 33% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s trial delayed to September 22, with Harvest Lane trimming its stake; spread to Cosette’s offer is 47%.
Gore Street Energy Storage faced significant shareholder dissent; RM Funds calls for Chairman’s resignation amid strategic review efforts.

Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math

Duolingo’s second-quarter 2025 results illustrate a company in a robust growth phase, marked by strong financial performance and promising strategic developments, balanced with some areas requiring further attention.
On the positive side, Duolingo continues to show impressive financial strength with record profitability and solid top-line growth across all subscription tiers.
This performance has enabled the company to once again raise its full-year guidance, highlighting confidence in its ongoing strategy.

The New York Times: Expansion of Digital Subscriptions to Support Longer-Term Growth Targets!

The New York Times Company’s second quarter 2025 earnings report highlights several key outcomes and strategic directions for the renowned media organization, providing both positive aspects and challenges to consider for potential investors.
The company reported solid revenue growth, with total revenues increasing by nearly 10% year-over-year.
Digital subscription revenues were a major contributor, growing by over 15% and driving the total subscription revenue up by approximately 10% to $481 million.

Planet Fitness: Leveraging Younger Demographics to Drive Sustained Membership Growth