Category

Daily Briefs

Aug 16
0

Daily Brief China: Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro, Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H, Jiangxi Zhengbang Tech A, Xiaomi, Hang Seng Index, Lenovo and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?
  • Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting
  • Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec25: US$2.8bn One-Way; Strong Momentum for ADDs V DELs
  • Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows
  • Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 18th Feb 2025, Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK). Shortly thereafter, SHS’ share price took off.
  • SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.
  • What gives? It’s not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?, I concluded Shengjing Bank (2066 HK) was one bank I would avoid. It’s now suspended pursuant to the Takeovers code.
  • Shengjing Bank had one of the largest P/B and net income declines in recent years. It had borderline allowance/provision coverage. It also had the lowest net interest margin.
  • Shengjing Bank is PRC-incorporated, therefore any delisting proposal would involve a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. And probably a tendering condition.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

By Arun George

  • Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
  • It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.
  • Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec25: US$2.8bn One-Way; Strong Momentum for ADDs V DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 1000 represents the next 1000 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges after CSI 800. 
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 100 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 1000 index.

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

By John Ley

  • The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.
  • Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.
  • Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings. 

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows

By John Ley

  • Broad-Based strength across sectors pushed HSI higher despite late-week weakness.
  • Option trading accelerated into week’s end, with Calls showing a modest uptick.
  • The HKD pulled back from the top end of its trading range after prior interventions.

Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

By Trung Nguyen

  • Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat.
  • In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is up 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is down 1.1%. US equity futures are slightly higher.
  • WTI is trading at USD 63.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 66.7/bbl. US President Donald Trump said that he sees the upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin today as a precursor to a second and more important meeting. 

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Stall as Hot Inflation Data Dampens Rate Cut Hopes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Stall as Hot Inflation Data Dampens Rate Cut Hopes
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Looking to Take a Stage in INTC Will Ensure Fab Ambitions
  • Russia for Oil, US for Exports: India’s Dual-Track Dilemma

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Stall as Hot Inflation Data Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

By Mark Chadwick

  • July’s PPI rose 0.9% month-over-month versus expectations of 0.2%, with annual prices climbing 3.3%
  • Stocks flat to down slightly: Intel jumped 7% on reports the Trump administration is considering taking a stake in the chipmaker.
  • Minebea Mitsumi raised its tender offer price for Shibaura Electronics to 6,200 yen per share from 5,500 yen, matching the hostile bid from Taiwanese electronic components firm Yageo.

Japan Morning Connection: US Looking to Take a Stage in INTC Will Ensure Fab Ambitions

By Andrew Jackson

  • AMAT number after market missed showing a slowdown in Chinese demand and licensing delays.
  • INTC news positive for SPE suppliers but demand will be tempered in light of AMAT.
  • Coach owner taking a hit on tariff costs sends a warning to likes of Este Lauder who reports next week.

Russia for Oil, US for Exports: India’s Dual-Track Dilemma

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • US slaps a sweeping 50% tariff on Indian goods over Russian oil imports, reshaping trade priorities and market calculations.
  • India risks losing its $87B US export engine, while competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh eye the gap to seize market share.
  • Energy security keeps Russia close, but economic reality keeps the US vital, making India’s next trade moves a high‑stakes balancing act.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Rezil, Fortis /Canada, Kontrol Technologies , Idacorp Inc, Essential Utilities , Aes Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?
  • Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal
  • Fortis Inc’s Strategic Moves – What’s Driving Its Market Position In Clean Energy?
  • KNR: Expecting Stronger Results in H2
  • IDACORP: What’s Driving Its Bold Shift Into Gas-Fired Energy & Beyond!
  • Essential Utilities, Inc: Growth in Texas & Legislative Support Driving Our Optimism!
  • AES Corporation: Transition from Coal & Asset Performance To Up The Ante In Clean Energy Sectors!

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

By Travis Lundy

  • To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago. 
  • This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
  • Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Rezil (176A JP) has recommended a tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY2,750, a 57.1% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,750.
  • The offer is attractive as it aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and is 129.2% above the IPO price of JPY1,200. 
  • This is a done deal as Hikari Tsushin, a cross-holder, tendering is sufficient to meet the minimum tendering condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 6.8%.

Fortis Inc’s Strategic Moves – What’s Driving Its Market Position In Clean Energy?

By Baptista Research

  • Fortis Inc.’s second-quarter 2025 performance showcased a mix of significant achievements and challenges, characteristic of a large utility company’s complex operating environment.
  • The firm reported an increase in its earnings, with a notable rate of $0.76 per share, up from $0.67 in the same period the previous year.
  • This improvement was attributed mainly to enhanced rate base investments and favorable outcomes in regulatory matters.

KNR: Expecting Stronger Results in H2

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Kontrol reported Q2 financial results that were below our expectations due to tariff related uncertainty.
  • Revenue came in at $1.3M vs. our estimate of $1.8M and adjusted EBITDA of ($0.3M) vs. our estimate of $0.2M.
  • • KNR highlighted that it expects stronger organic growth in H2 as its clients look to increase capex spending.

IDACORP: What’s Driving Its Bold Shift Into Gas-Fired Energy & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • IDACORP’s second-quarter results of 2025 indicate modest growth and operational strength, evidenced by the rise in diluted earnings per share to $1.76 compared to $1.71 in the previous year’s second quarter.
  • The company has benefited from an increase in tax credit amortization under the Idaho regulatory mechanism, increasing from $7.5 million to $17.2 million year-over-year in the same quarter.
  • This additional amortization, when coupled with strong operational performance, has prompted the company to elevate its full-year earnings per share guidance to between $5.70 and $5.85.

Essential Utilities, Inc: Growth in Texas & Legislative Support Driving Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • Essential Utilities, Inc. delivered robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, showcasing significant growth in both its Water and Natural Gas segments.
  • One of the standout figures was the company’s GAAP earnings per share, which increased by 35% year-over-year to $0.38.
  • A primary driver of this growth was favorable rate case outcomes in Pennsylvania, which enhanced revenues by 18.5% and were also bolstered by higher gas consumption and increased purchased gas costs.

AES Corporation: Transition from Coal & Asset Performance To Up The Ante In Clean Energy Sectors!

By Baptista Research

  • AES Corporation’s second quarter 2025 financial results reflect a balanced mix of strengths and challenges across its operations.
  • Overall, the company has managed to maintain resilience in the face of changing market conditions and policy landscapes, directed by a strategy that emphasizes flexibility and a diversified energy portfolio.
  • On the positive side, AES reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and long-term growth targets, reporting adjusted EBITDA of $681 million and an adjusted EPS of $0.51 for the quarter.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Keppel Corp, HMM Co., Ltd., King Slide Works, CFF Fluid Control, JSW Cement Limited, PG Electroplast, Wesco International, Agco Corp, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails
  • HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide
  • HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
  • Business Breakdown: CFF Fluid Control – In the Middle of India’s Naval Indigenization Drive
  • JSW Cement IPO Trading – Overall Demand Lags Recent Listings
  • PG Electroplast: Guidance Cut Tempers Near-Term Outlook, Valuation Back in Check?
  • WESCO Accelerates Momentum Across UBS, EES, & AI-Driven Data Centers; What Lies Ahead?
  • AGCO Corporation: Precision Agriculture, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!
  • W.W. Grainger’s Zoro Growth Engine – Can It Defy Market Challenges?

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan

  • A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
  • Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP). 
  • The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
  • Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
  • The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – one is high probability and the other is right at the cusp.
  • King Slide Works (2059 TT) is being added to a global index this month, so the ETF inclusion will come hot on the heels of that.
  • The impact on the stocks is pretty big with passive trackers needing to buy between 1.3-5.5x ADV in the adds and sell between 3.4-6.4x ADV in the deletes.

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
  • An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. 
  • Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Business Breakdown: CFF Fluid Control – In the Middle of India’s Naval Indigenization Drive

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • CFF Fluid Control enters FY25 with a INR 500+ crore order book and expanded manufacturing capacity at Khopoli and upcoming Chakan facility.
  • Strategic partnerships, high entry barriers, and preferred supplier status strengthen revenue visibility amid India’s naval indigenization push.
  • Robust growth prospects and contract pipeline outweigh concentration risks, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook.

JSW Cement IPO Trading – Overall Demand Lags Recent Listings

By Akshat Shah

  • JSW Cement Limited (9858514Z IN) raised about US$410m in its India IPO.
  • JSW Cement (JSWC) is a cement manufacturing company in India focused on manufacturing green cementitious products comprising blended cement, ordinary portland cement, ground granulated blast furnace slag, among other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

PG Electroplast: Guidance Cut Tempers Near-Term Outlook, Valuation Back in Check?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PGEL cut FY26 guidance sharply, triggering ~30% share price fall. Valuations now near long-term medians, with EV/EBITDA at 26.8x and P/E at 54x.
  • Near-Term growth headwinds emerge, but Indian RAC market’s 18% CAGR outlook remains intact, supported by low penetration, rising incomes, and PLI-led domestic manufacturing push.
  • Correction offers fair-value entry. Long-term thesis intact with PGEL’s EMS leadership, backward integration, and exposure to fast-growing consumer durable categories.

WESCO Accelerates Momentum Across UBS, EES, & AI-Driven Data Centers; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • WESCO International, Inc. delivered a mixed financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating both challenges and significant growth opportunities.
  • Positives were apparent in the company’s organic sales growth, which was reported at 7% year-over-year, highlighted by a 17% increase in Communications & Security Solutions (CSS) and a 6% increase in Electrical & Electronic Solutions (EES).
  • The company also reached a milestone as its data center sales surpassed $1 billion, reflecting a 65% growth compared to the previous year.

AGCO Corporation: Precision Agriculture, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • AGCO Corporation reported its second quarter 2025 financial results under challenging conditions in the agricultural sector.
  • The company’s net sales fell to $2.6 billion, representing a 19% decline from the previous year or 11% when adjusted for the divestiture of its Grain & Protein business.
  • This reduction reflects persisting softness in key regions, including North America and Western Europe, compounded by reduced dealer inventory levels.

W.W. Grainger’s Zoro Growth Engine – Can It Defy Market Challenges?

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger’s second-quarter financial performance in 2025 depicted a mixed yet stable operational stance amidst ongoing market uncertainties.
  • The company reported sales of nearly $4.6 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year, or 5.1% on a constant currency basis, which suggests a steady demand in its broad industrial customer base despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • Operating margins were recorded at 14.9%, with diluted EPS increasing by $0.21 to $9.97.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Huadian New Energy Group, Iron Ore, Carpenter Technology, Chevron Corp, Condor Energies , DT Midstream Inc, Eastman Chemical Co, Enbridge Inc., Exxon Mobil, Forge Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected
  • [IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore
  • Carpenter Technology Corporation delivered a strong performance in the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter
  • Chevron Corporation: An Insight Into Its Eastern Mediterranean Gas Strategy & Other Major Drivers!
  • Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): 4Q25 drilling in Uzbekistan could add 26-40 mmcf/d. First LNG in Kazakhstan in 2Q26
  • DT Midstream Seizes LNG Boom With Massive Gulf Coast Connectivity!
  • Eastman Chemical Company: Powering Ahead with Game-Changing EV Tech & Circular Economy Leadership!
  • Enbridge Inc.: Strong Position in Hydrocarbon Infrastructure & Storage Fuelling Our Optimism!
  • Exxon Mobil: Expansion Of Biofuel
  • FRG: Tests From Coal Seam Confirm Excellent Quality

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 49 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore

By Umang Agrawal

  • China’s July lending drop signals weak private sector appetite, while severe weather hampers outdoor construction.  
  • Managed money participants trimmed net long futures exposure amid rising prices, signalling profit-taking.
  • Bullish momentum has faded as prices dip below key moving averages and MACD signals growing seller control in the market. 

Carpenter Technology Corporation delivered a strong performance in the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter

By Baptista Research

  • Carpenter Technology Corporation delivered a strong performance in the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, culminating in the most profitable quarter on record for the company.
  • However, this performance needs to be dissected to understand both the strengths and challenges that might influence future investment decisions.
  • The company reported $151 million in adjusted operating income for the quarter, reflecting a 21% increase from the same quarter the previous year, and a 10% sequential rise.

Chevron Corporation: An Insight Into Its Eastern Mediterranean Gas Strategy & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • In the second quarter of 2025, Chevron Corporation delivered a robust financial performance, reflecting strategic accomplishments and operational efficiency.
  • The company reported earnings of $2.5 billion, equating to $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings amounting to $3.1 billion or $1.77 per share.
  • Several notable factors, including special items and foreign currency effects, impacted the earnings.

Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): 4Q25 drilling in Uzbekistan could add 26-40 mmcf/d. First LNG in Kazakhstan in 2Q26

By Auctus Advisors

  • • 2Q25 gross production averaged 10,258 boe/d, consistent with prior indications.
  • • Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan will begin in early September.
  • The well will target the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals.

DT Midstream Seizes LNG Boom With Massive Gulf Coast Connectivity!

By Baptista Research

  • DT Midstream, a company focused on the transport and storage of natural gas, reported its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing an active period with several key developments.
  • The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range as well as its early outlook for 2026, projecting stability in its financial targets.
  • This assertion was supported by strong performance in the quarter, albeit with a slight decrease in adjusted EBITDA by $3 million to $277 million compared to the prior quarter.

Eastman Chemical Company: Powering Ahead with Game-Changing EV Tech & Circular Economy Leadership!

By Baptista Research

  • Eastman Chemical Company, navigating through a complex economic landscape, presented a mixed financial performance for the second quarter of 2025.
  • The backdrop of the company’s second-quarter result is deeply intertwined with global trade uncertainties, most notably the continued fluctuations and implementations of tariffs and trade regulations.
  • These external pressures have brought about both challenges and adaptations within the company’s operational strategies.

Enbridge Inc.: Strong Position in Hydrocarbon Infrastructure & Storage Fuelling Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • Enbridge Inc. has reported a robust second quarter for 2025, with record-setting EBITDA primarily driven by its U.S. gas utilities and advantageous rate settlements in their Gas Transmission business.
  • The organization is on track to reach the higher end of its EBITDA guidance for the year and expects to meet its Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) per share midpoint.
  • The company’s sound financial position, evidenced by a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.7x as of June 30, is buttressed by earnings gains from recent U.S. gas utility acquisitions and sustained high asset utilization.

Exxon Mobil: Expansion Of Biofuel

By Baptista Research

  • ExxonMobil’s recent earnings call provided a nuanced overview of its current performance and future prospects.
  • The company reported an outstanding second quarter, achieving its highest production levels since the Exxon and Mobil merger over 25 years ago.
  • This production growth is credited to high-return, advantaged assets, with particular emphasis on the company’s operations in Guyana and the Permian Basin.

FRG: Tests From Coal Seam Confirm Excellent Quality

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • FRG reported premium coal quality results from recently intersected coal seam while driving the decline at the La Estrella Project, Colombia.
  • • Analysis confirmed a calorific value of 13,846 BTU/lb, sulphur of 0.82%, low ash/moisture, and a Free Swelling Index of 4.
  • • The coal was extracted from the 0.5–1.0m seam encountered during underground decline development.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Appier Group, Softbank Group, Allegro MicroSystems , Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, Roku , Sun*, Itron Inc, Procore Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer
  • Appier (4180) | Sustained High-Growth Momentum with Expanding Margins
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Our Last Review of Quarterly Data
  • Allegro MicroSystems: Fueling EV & ADAS Growth with Strategic Design Wins!
  • SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Six Month Summary: A Textbook Case of an IPO Overreach
  • Roku Boosts User Retention & Revenue With Subscription Bundling Strategy; Will It Work In The Long Term?
  • Sun* (4053 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
  • Itron’s Water Solutions Push – How Is It Tackling Global Scarcity & Winning New Contracts?
  • Procore Technologies: Initiation of Coverage- Could Helix Redefine the Future of Construction?

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

By Travis Lundy

  • After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
  • Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else. 
  • But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer

By Arun George

  • Despite its previous protestations, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has unexpectedly matched Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY6,200 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
  • Minebea’s actions suggest that Yageo has a good chance of securing regulatory approval. Otherwise, Minebea could have kept its offer unchanged and patiently waited for the Yageo offer to fail.
  • Given the significant sunk costs, Yageo is likely to bump. Without increasing its offer, shareholders will have a greater inclination to tender and help Minebea meet its minimum tendering condition. 

Appier (4180) | Sustained High-Growth Momentum with Expanding Margins

By Mark Chadwick

  • Revenue: JPY 10.3 billion compared to JPY 8.2 billion a year ago, +27% YoY; FX-neutral revenue of JPY 11.0 billion, +35% YoY – fastest growth in eight quarters.
  • Gross Margin: 56.1%, up 4.8 percentage points YoY, driven by high-margin products, organic margin improvements, and GenAI-enabled efficiencies.
  • Stock continues to offer compelling value at 3.2x revenue – a discount to US peer Braze

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Our Last Review of Quarterly Data

By Victor Galliano

  • With this report, we terminate coverage of SoftBank group (SBG) shares; going forward, our coverage will be concentrated on financial and fintech stocks, with a bias towards Emerging Markets
  • SBG shares have rallied hard recently, driven by IPOs of portfolio companies, good IPO prospects for other private companies including PayPay and positive market sentiment towards AI investments
  • The group NAV’s discount has narrowed sharply to under 30%; we conclude our coverage with a neutral rating, but we stress that high expectations are baked into this narrow discount

Allegro MicroSystems: Fueling EV & ADAS Growth with Strategic Design Wins!

By Baptista Research

  • When we look at the broader performance of Allegro MicroSystems, the results indicate both positive and challenging aspects of the company’s current situation.
  • From a financial perspective, Allegro delivered a solid performance in its first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • The company reported sales of $203 million and a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.09, which was above the midpoint of their guidance range.

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) Six Month Summary: A Textbook Case of an IPO Overreach

By IPO Boutique

  • The IPO priced 60.0 million shares (upsized from 50.0 million) at $23.00, the high end of the upwardly revised $19–$21 range, only to open flat and trade poorly.
  • Underwriters failed to properly assess book quality. While the order book was reportedly 20× covered, the aftermarket behavior revealed that much of this “demand” lacked conviction.
  • The stock’s underperformance will likely keep momentum buyers on the sidelines until the company strings together multiple quarters of beats and raises.

Roku Boosts User Retention & Revenue With Subscription Bundling Strategy; Will It Work In The Long Term?

By Baptista Research

  • Roku’s second quarter 2025 earnings call reflected a nuanced picture of both progress and ongoing challenges for the company.
  • On the positive side, the quarter was highlighted by an 18% year-over-year growth in platform revenue, driven largely by the expansion and diversification of advertising demand, and a robust performance from the newly launched Roku Ads Manager.
  • This growth was fueled by significant gains in video advertising, which outpaced the overall U.S. OTT and digital ad markets, pointing to successful integration strategies and product innovations.

Sun* (4053 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 8.3% YoY to JPY7.1bn, while operating profit decreased by 42.9% YoY to JPY415mn.
  • Number of unique customers grew 10.7% YoY to 228, with enterprise customers at 96 and SMB customers at 132.
  • Monthly ARPU rose 2.7% YoY to JPY4,980,000, with enterprise ARPU down 5.1% and SMB ARPU up 2.1%.

Itron’s Water Solutions Push – How Is It Tackling Global Scarcity & Winning New Contracts?

By Baptista Research

  • Itron, Inc. reported its second quarter results for 2025, revealing a mixed set of outcomes that reflect both strengths and challenges facing the company.
  • For this period, Itron generated $607 million in revenue, aligning with the projected estimates.
  • Impressively, the company set quarterly records for gross margin, operating income, and free cash flow, particularly noting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.8% which reflects operational efficiency improvements and a favorable product mix.

Procore Technologies: Initiation of Coverage- Could Helix Redefine the Future of Construction?

By Baptista Research

  • Procore Technologies, Inc. reported its fiscal 2025 Q2 earnings, showcasing a mix of positive performance metrics and ongoing strategic efforts to position itself for future growth in the construction technology industry.
  • The company’s revenue grew by 14% year-over-year, reaching $324 million, accompanied by a 13% non-GAAP operating margin.
  • This demonstrates solid top-line growth and improvement in efficiency.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Keppel Corp, HMM Co., Ltd., King Slide Works, CFF Fluid Control, JSW Cement Limited, PG Electroplast, Wesco International, Agco Corp, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails
  • HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide
  • HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
  • Business Breakdown: CFF Fluid Control – In the Middle of India’s Naval Indigenization Drive
  • JSW Cement IPO Trading – Overall Demand Lags Recent Listings
  • PG Electroplast: Guidance Cut Tempers Near-Term Outlook, Valuation Back in Check?
  • WESCO Accelerates Momentum Across UBS, EES, & AI-Driven Data Centers; What Lies Ahead?
  • AGCO Corporation: Precision Agriculture, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!
  • W.W. Grainger’s Zoro Growth Engine – Can It Defy Market Challenges?

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan

  • A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
  • Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP). 
  • The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
  • Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
  • The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Another Inclusion for King Slide

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – one is high probability and the other is right at the cusp.
  • King Slide Works (2059 TT) is being added to a global index this month, so the ETF inclusion will come hot on the heels of that.
  • The impact on the stocks is pretty big with passive trackers needing to buy between 1.3-5.5x ADV in the adds and sell between 3.4-6.4x ADV in the deletes.

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
  • An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. 
  • Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Business Breakdown: CFF Fluid Control – In the Middle of India’s Naval Indigenization Drive

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • CFF Fluid Control enters FY25 with a INR 500+ crore order book and expanded manufacturing capacity at Khopoli and upcoming Chakan facility.
  • Strategic partnerships, high entry barriers, and preferred supplier status strengthen revenue visibility amid India’s naval indigenization push.
  • Robust growth prospects and contract pipeline outweigh concentration risks, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook.

JSW Cement IPO Trading – Overall Demand Lags Recent Listings

By Akshat Shah

  • JSW Cement Limited (9858514Z IN) raised about US$410m in its India IPO.
  • JSW Cement (JSWC) is a cement manufacturing company in India focused on manufacturing green cementitious products comprising blended cement, ordinary portland cement, ground granulated blast furnace slag, among other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

PG Electroplast: Guidance Cut Tempers Near-Term Outlook, Valuation Back in Check?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • PGEL cut FY26 guidance sharply, triggering ~30% share price fall. Valuations now near long-term medians, with EV/EBITDA at 26.8x and P/E at 54x.
  • Near-Term growth headwinds emerge, but Indian RAC market’s 18% CAGR outlook remains intact, supported by low penetration, rising incomes, and PLI-led domestic manufacturing push.
  • Correction offers fair-value entry. Long-term thesis intact with PGEL’s EMS leadership, backward integration, and exposure to fast-growing consumer durable categories.

WESCO Accelerates Momentum Across UBS, EES, & AI-Driven Data Centers; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • WESCO International, Inc. delivered a mixed financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating both challenges and significant growth opportunities.
  • Positives were apparent in the company’s organic sales growth, which was reported at 7% year-over-year, highlighted by a 17% increase in Communications & Security Solutions (CSS) and a 6% increase in Electrical & Electronic Solutions (EES).
  • The company also reached a milestone as its data center sales surpassed $1 billion, reflecting a 65% growth compared to the previous year.

AGCO Corporation: Precision Agriculture, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • AGCO Corporation reported its second quarter 2025 financial results under challenging conditions in the agricultural sector.
  • The company’s net sales fell to $2.6 billion, representing a 19% decline from the previous year or 11% when adjusted for the divestiture of its Grain & Protein business.
  • This reduction reflects persisting softness in key regions, including North America and Western Europe, compounded by reduced dealer inventory levels.

W.W. Grainger’s Zoro Growth Engine – Can It Defy Market Challenges?

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger’s second-quarter financial performance in 2025 depicted a mixed yet stable operational stance amidst ongoing market uncertainties.
  • The company reported sales of nearly $4.6 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year, or 5.1% on a constant currency basis, which suggests a steady demand in its broad industrial customer base despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • Operating margins were recorded at 14.9%, with diluted EPS increasing by $0.21 to $9.97.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief ESG: Catalyst for Value-Creating Management Isn’t the Revision of Corporate Governance Code and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Catalyst for Value-Creating Management Isn’t the Revision of Corporate Governance Code, but Rather..

Catalyst for Value-Creating Management Isn’t the Revision of Corporate Governance Code, but Rather..

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Financial Services Agency is planning to revise the Corporate Governance Code because corporate governance reforms aimed at achieving sustainable growth and medium- to long-term corporate value have not been achieved.
  • The essence of the problem is that many managers have little interest in the goal of expanding shareholder profits, which is the purpose of a listed company.
  • When shareholders hold management accountable for continuing measures that do not raise stock prices or increase corporate value, it becomes catalyst for a return to shareholder-oriented management.

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Aug 15
0

Most Read: Zhongji Innolight , DroneShield Ltd, Huadian New Energy Group, Shibaura Electronics, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., HMM Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry, Rezil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated
  • BoE: Policy Mistake Diagnosis
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected
  • [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
  • Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
  • UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2
  • HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades
  • [Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

By Brian Freitas

  • S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
  • The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index changes.

BoE: Policy Mistake Diagnosis

By Phil Rush

  • Inflation expectations have been persistently too high, while productivity trends poorly, driving wage and price inflation forecasts to grind higher in recent years.
  • The BoE’s cutting cycle contributed to reversing the trend decline in expectations, and in turning a slight overshoot into a massive one, with a 3.2pp revision since Feb-23.
  • We forecasted this excess for these reasons, so it was predictable and therefore a policy mistake to cut so soon. Further surprise should prevent the MPC from cutting again.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 49 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

By Travis Lundy

  • After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
  • Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else. 
  • But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
  • The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
  • I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. 

UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2

By Phil Rush

  • June’s remarkable rebound compounded the resilience revealed by April’s upwards revision, which also broke flimsy fundamental stories blaming tariffs for a slowdown.
  • IP no longer declined in April, but the broader growth profile still matches the residual seasonality that spuriously drives GDP dynamics in our forecast. H2 will be weaker.
  • The BoE discounts headline GDP volatility without blaming seasonality, so another surprisingly strong quarter will be hard for hawks to ignore, reducing the rate cut risk.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
  • Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
  • The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see 5 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

By Travis Lundy

  • To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago. 
  • This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
  • Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
  • Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails
  • Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
  • [Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?
  • HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
  • StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)
  • HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer
  • Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

By Travis Lundy

  • After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
  • Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else. 
  • But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan

  • A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
  • Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP). 
  • The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
  • The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
  • I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today. 

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

By Travis Lundy

  • To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago. 
  • This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
  • Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

By Sanghyun Park

  • Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
  • Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
  • The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)

By David Blennerhassett

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
  • An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. 
  • Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer

By Arun George

  • Despite its previous protestations, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has unexpectedly matched Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY6,200 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
  • Minebea’s actions suggest that Yageo has a good chance of securing regulatory approval. Otherwise, Minebea could have kept its offer unchanged and patiently waited for the Yageo offer to fail.
  • Given the significant sunk costs, Yageo is likely to bump. Without increasing its offer, shareholders will have a greater inclination to tender and help Minebea meet its minimum tendering condition. 

Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Rezil (176A JP) has recommended a tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY2,750, a 57.1% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,750.
  • The offer is attractive as it aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and is 129.2% above the IPO price of JPY1,200. 
  • This is a done deal as Hikari Tsushin, a cross-holder, tendering is sufficient to meet the minimum tendering condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 6.8%.

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