Daily Briefs

• With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
• If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
• This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

• The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
• The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
• A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.

• Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
• Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
• Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.

• Recent legislations in major economies have propelled the mainstream adoption of stablecoin. While offshore use of stablecoin has been centered around crypto trading and informal economies, we believe the regulated stablecoins present two key opportunities: “open-source digital wallets” for payments and “open clearing houses” for settlements.
• Digital wallet payment solutions built around stablecoin have a much lower bar than building a web2 digital wallet company, in both technology and commercial terms.
• In developed economies dominated by credit cards, stablecoins could drive a new wave of digital wallet adoption, potentially capturing significant market share.

• This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.
• Highlight: Credit Corp (CCP AU) surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days.
• Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.

• Consolidated ordinary income reached JPY15.8bn (+13.3% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY3.9bn (+36.2% YoY).
• Loan balance increased to JPY2.43tn (+2.2% YoY), with deposits at JPY3.08tn (+0.2% YoY).
• Capital adequacy ratio improved to 9.30% non-consolidated, reflecting higher capital and reduced risk-weighted assets.

• Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
• Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
• Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.

HgT’s muted -0.3% NAV total return (TR) in H125 (according to its preliminary trading update) was negatively affected by public market volatility that reduced HgT’s private portfolio valuations by 4pp. That said, it represents a NAV rebound in Q225 following the -2.0% TR in Q125. Last 12-month (LTM) revenue and EBITDA growth to end-May 2025 across HgT’s entire portfolio were both a robust 19%, translating to a 7pp positive effect on portfolio value. Minor headwinds came from fx changes and higher portfolio net debt (1pp NAV impact each). Gross realisation proceeds reached £165m (7% of opening NAV), which according to Hg compares favourably with peers in a challenging environment. Investments (including reinvestments) stood at £306m, or 12% of opening NAV.

• SES AI, a leader in AI-powered battery research, announced 2Q25 revenue of $3.5 million, which was in line with its preannouncement.
• SES’ 2Q25 gross margin came in at 74%, above its long-term gross margin range, as the manufacturing, software licenses, and services mix stabilizes.
• The company also reiterated 2025 revenue guidance of $15-25 million.