Daily Briefs

• Today after the close, a Nikkei article said Denso Corp (6902 JP) had recently lifted its stake in ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) from “about 0.3%” to “just under 5%.”
• Given the recent buy of 28mm shares of Rohm into the Nikkei 225, that means ~11.5% or perhaps more has been taken out of the public’s hands. 
• Some may have come from cross-holders, but it’s not clear there are that many. This renders the stock more squeeze-able going forward. Rohm reports next week.

• Magnificent 7 positioning remains elevated across global funds, but momentum has clearly stalled, with recent activity pointing to consolidation rather than renewed conviction buying. 
• Growth and GARP funds are near fully allocated, while Value and Yield managers remain structurally underweight— potentially limiting the potential for broad-based participation from here. 
• Microsoft leads with cross-style appeal; Tesla lags with minimal support. Apple is the conviction underweight, while NVIDIA’s benchmark surge has left it at a record active underweight.

• Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -> 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.
• Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -> 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.
• Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).

• Q25: inline with a GP one-off.  3Q25: FX impact but still revenue decline QoQ. Add margins compression and 3Q guidance is a large miss: OP -20% below Consensus.
• Management continues to provide very bullish “indications” on growth from 2026-27: AI ASIC, collaboration with Nvidia, Automotive. Multiple analysts questions on risk of hyperscalers projects delayed or cancelled.
• Mediatek is entering very large markets (AI ASIC, Auto) that will provide new growth beyond the exhausted Mobile market. You want to buy into this after a ~20% correction.

• Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) and Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT) held a joint press conference this afternoon to announce the formation of alliance through a share swap.
• Teco (1504) TT and Hon Hai (2317 TT) stated their target markets extend beyond Taiwan and Asia, to include substantial business opportunities in the U.S. and the Middle East.
• Foxconn Chairman Mr. Young Liu also noted that as AI data centers scale up rapidly and demand surges, modular design is increasingly favored.  

• Meta (META US) will report its earnings today July 30th, after the Close.
• If the earnings are positive, we predict a rally that could last up to 3 weeks and bring Meta (META US) at 758, above its recent all time high peaks.
• The rally could last up to 3 weeks – this is a short-term tactical forecast, it doesn’t offer a view of where the stock could be several weeks from now.

• 3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).
• Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.
• ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.

• 2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
• 3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
• The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 

Over the last year, Freelancer has optimised its cost base, invested in AI tooling for internal use and to enhance freelancers’ skills, and focused on product quality to improve demand for its services. In H125, revenue was up 8.0% y-o-y even while gross marketplace volume (GMV) was down 2.4%, as the business improved the take rate in Escrow.com and Loadshift. The company was net cash flow positive in H125 and reported a year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit. With the cost base right-sized and cash being generated at this level of revenue and GMV, we see scope for significant operational leverage if the company can stimulate GMV growth.

• Alphabet’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report marked a pivotal moment in the company’s pursuit of AI-driven growth, delivering strong results alongside escalating investment challenges.
• The company posted a 14% yearover-year revenue increase, reaching a record $96.4 billion, bolstered by significant gains in its cloud, search, and YouTube businesses.
• Earnings per share rose to $2.31, beating Wall Street expectations of $2.18 and up from $1.89 a year ago.