In today’s briefing:
- Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market
- Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Tech IPO
- Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
- Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
- How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
- NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Peeking at the Prospectus of a Consumer Intelligence Company
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurance Related IPO
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market
- Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, filed for long-awaited IPO. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the lead bankers on the offering.
- The San Francisco-based company was valued at $12.5B in a 2024 tender offer. Figma is well-positioned with a strong brand among designers and a growing footprint in enterprise segment.
- With strong financial profile and network effects, driven by large scale and efficient GTM strategy, the company remains the leader in collaborative design software market.
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Tech IPO
- The company describes itself as a commercial-stage medical technology company pioneering AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions.
- For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, they recognized revenue of $27.2 million and $13.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 97.2%.
- The area in which this company operates in is one that is traditionally well-received by IPO investors.
Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
- Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
- June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
- On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.
Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story
- Figma Inc. is planning to go public in the second half of July. The amount the company intends to raise is not yet disclosed, but it’s likely to exceed $1B.
- I like Figma’s high growth, rule of 60 story, cash flow generation and solid balance sheet. They are profitable and still growing 40%+ YoY while doing $800M+ in LTM revenue.
- I believe Figma’s premium multiple is justified given its best-in-class metrics, top-tier VC investors and Adobe’s attempt to acquire the design software maker for ~$20B in 2022.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
- Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at elevated levels for heavy grades, lower-than-usual levels for light grades.
- Base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels for heavy grades, and to consider adjusting production levels for light grades.
- Any such moves to maintain or adjust output would coincide with rise in regional production capacity following completion of most plant-maintenance work.
How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
- During the week, Trump muscled his Big Beautiful Bill through a divided congress. With that, the bill got passed even right before 4th of July.
- The nearly-900 page bill includes a tax-cut and spending package that is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade.
- Cost-saving to reduce the government debt seems to be completely from the table. The DODGE department seems compared to this bill like a joke.
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Peeking at the Prospectus of a Consumer Intelligence Company
- The company, better known as NielsenIQ, describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers.
- The company is private equity backed with a majority stake owned by Advent International.
- With revenues over the last three months relatively flat versus the year prior, it will be “interesting” to see how (or if) the market “embraces” this company.
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurance Related IPO
- They have grown their revenues by 57% to $344 million in 2023 and by 75% to $603 million for the year ended December 31, 2024.
- The company that describes itself as operating a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners.
- The insurance sector in which this company operates in is one that is traditionally well-received by IPO investors and has been so far in 2025.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July
- Asia’s base oils demand could weaken in coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in consumption.
- Signs of more prolonged and widespread drop in regional lube consumption from year-earlier levels would magnify impact of seasonal slowdown.
- Weaker demand in recent months cushions impact of tighter regional supply during that period.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
- Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.
- Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.
- Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.
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