Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Telcoware, Contemporary Amperex Technology, NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, ASML Holding NV, MNTN, Koninklijke KPN and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Telcoware: Tender Offer To Take the Company Private
  • CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut
  • Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location
  • Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment
  • No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29
  • MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – “Netflix of Marketing” IPO; Solid Deal Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry
  • Koninklijke KPN NV – What’s News in Amsterdam


Telcoware: Tender Offer To Take the Company Private

By Douglas Kim

  • Telcoware announced that the largest shareholder and CEO of the company (Keum Han-Tae) will be undertaking a tender offer of 2.332 million shares (25.24%) to take the company private.
  • Tender offer price is 13,000 won per share. Tender offer period is from 19 May to 10 June. 
  • Telcoware has 4.08 million treasury shares, accounting for 44.1% of outstanding shares. 

CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) priced its H Share at HK$263 to raise HK$35,657.2 million (US$4.6 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 6.6% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Midea Group (300 HK)‘s AH discount of 4.7%.
  • CATL had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

By Patrick Liao

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
  • Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
  • Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  

Nvidia’s Jensen at Computex: 3 Big Announcements, and Smaller Ones

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
  • A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
  • Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Rebounded from Previous Lows, Consider Shorting ADR Spread at 20% or Higher
  • ASE: +6.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
  • ChipMOS: +3.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer investment plan with Hon Hai, TSMC as key partners.
  • Nvidia Opens Up Ecosystem with new “NVLink Fusion” — A strategic move to cement long-term platform dominance.
  • PC Monitor — Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift 

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

By Nicolas Baratte

  • There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. 
  • Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. 
  • We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.

MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – “Netflix of Marketing” IPO; Solid Deal Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry

By IPO Boutique

  • Their self-serve software platform enables marketers to precisely target audiences through their MNTN Matched technology and then directly attribute each view to a purchase or other action.
  • Detractors of this IPO may point to the lack of profitability of a company founded in 2009 as well as the immense competition in the space.
  • The company does have a grand vision and a solid core of backers with a manageable deal size.  Furthermore, 19 of the last 25 quarters have produced positive adjusted EBITDA. 

Koninklijke KPN NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • AkzoNobel | believed to be close to a final deal with JSW Paints on Akzo Nobel India • KPN | VodafoneZiggo investigating possible sale of transmission towers • InPost | poor delivery quality in to-door segment damaging to e-commerce growth • Just Eat TakeAway.com (“JET”) | Prosus launches recommended cash offer • Corporate agenda | week 21 – 24

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Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Yang Ming Marine Transport, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), New Horizon Aircraft and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good
  • TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade
  • CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List
  • HOVR: Is liftoff on the horizon? Initiating coverage of an early-stage eVTOL manufacturer.


[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

By Travis Lundy

  • On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
  • But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
  • 5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
  • An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.

CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

HOVR: Is liftoff on the horizon? Initiating coverage of an early-stage eVTOL manufacturer.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Horizon Aircraft (NASDAQ: HOVR) is an early-stage aerospace OEM that is developing a hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing (“eVTOL”) aircraft for the regional air mobility market.
  • The company’s fan-in-wing design is unique in the eVTOL market and will allow its vehicles to take off and land vertically like a helicopter but fly horizontally like a standard fixed-wing aircraft once airborne.
  • The aircraft will be capable of traveling further, faster, and more efficiently than any other pure eVTOL aircraft currently in development.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Yang Ming Marine Transport, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), New Horizon Aircraft and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good
  • TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade
  • CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List
  • HOVR: Is liftoff on the horizon? Initiating coverage of an early-stage eVTOL manufacturer.


[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

By Travis Lundy

  • On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
  • But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
  • 5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
  • An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.

CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

HOVR: Is liftoff on the horizon? Initiating coverage of an early-stage eVTOL manufacturer.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Horizon Aircraft (NASDAQ: HOVR) is an early-stage aerospace OEM that is developing a hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing (“eVTOL”) aircraft for the regional air mobility market.
  • The company’s fan-in-wing design is unique in the eVTOL market and will allow its vehicles to take off and land vertically like a helicopter but fly horizontally like a standard fixed-wing aircraft once airborne.
  • The aircraft will be capable of traveling further, faster, and more efficiently than any other pure eVTOL aircraft currently in development.

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Daily Brief Health Care: PegBio, Hinge Health, Elevation Oncology , Mckesson Corp, Kaken Pharmaceutical, Lantern Pharma , Oryzon Genomics, Physiomics, Rani Therapeutics Holdings , SBC Medical Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal
  • Hinge Health (HNGE): Growth Surging into IPO, Valuation at Major Discount to 2021 Peak
  • Elevation Oncology’s Strategic Review: Potential Liquidation or Sale Offers 60% Upside Opportunity at $0.28/share
  • Weekly Update (MCK, LBTYA, SNRE, AMRZ)
  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight
  • LTRN: First Quarter 2025 Financial Results
  • Oryzon Genomics — Preparations in place for an active 2025
  • Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc: New client, new therapeutic area
  • RANI: 1Q:25 Financial Results
  • SBC: 1Q25 Results Likely Reflect Benefits Recent Initiatives New Share Buyback Plan


PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio, a China-based near commercial stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$39m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and valuation. We highlight issues of the company.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation is demanding, but the company managed to get support from local government facilitate its listing.

Hinge Health (HNGE): Growth Surging into IPO, Valuation at Major Discount to 2021 Peak

By IPO Boutique

  • The venture-capital backed company set terms for its IPO and will be seeking a valuation cut of more than 50% from its 2021 peak.
  • Their revenue was $123.8 million and $82.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 50%.
  • This IPO has gained a substantial amount of orders as the underwriters are classifying the books as multiple-times oversubscribed. 

Elevation Oncology’s Strategic Review: Potential Liquidation or Sale Offers 60% Upside Opportunity at $0.28/share

By Special Situation Investments

  • Elevation Oncology’s market cap is $16.5m, trading at a 50% discount to its mid-year cash guidance of $30m-$35m.
  • The company has no debt, $0.5m in payables, $3.7m in accrued expenses, and guided mid-year cash of $30m+.
  • Potential upside of 30%-60% is based on liquidation or buyout scenarios, considering working capital liabilities and cash burn.

Weekly Update (MCK, LBTYA, SNRE, AMRZ)

By Richard Howe

  • Before I dig into my regular update, I want to share one chart that caught my eye this week.

  • Colin King did a nice job modeling out Lionsgate RemainCo Stub / Starz valuation from last May to now.

  • Interesting to see that at one point it was trading at a negative $1 price.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) witnessed 31% YoY revenue growth in FY25 to ¥94 billion on the back of flurry of one-time upfront payments, resulting in surge in profits too.
  • Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop of 2% YoY to ¥17 billion on patent cliff, while Artz revenue grew 6% YoY to ¥19 billion.
  • For FY26, Kaken expects revenue to fall 6% to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs of revenue loss from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top-selling products.

LTRN: First Quarter 2025 Financial Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Lantern Pharma uses AI & data to identify drug responders, uncover mechanism of action & rescue failed drugs.
  • It is developing LP-300 for non- & never smoker NSCLC in the Harmonic trial.
  • Secondary candidates include LP-100 for mCRPC and LP-184 and LP-284, which are in clinical development for multiple biomarker-defined tumors and hematological cancers, respectively.

Oryzon Genomics — Preparations in place for an active 2025

By Edison Investment Research

Q125 saw Oryzon make significant headway towards Phase III for vafidemstat in BPD and clinical advancement for iadademstat across multiple early-stage studies. Operating performance was unsurprising, with opex rising slightly (+5.6% y-o-y to €3.4m) as the company continues to prepare for submitting the vafidemstat Phase III study protocol to the FDA (expected in Q225). The liquidity position has improved materially so far in Q2, supported by a €30m equity raise and another €13.3m in grant income. We estimate that pro forma gross funds (c €47m, including end-Q125 cash of €3.8m) will provide runway through 2027, excluding the BPD trials, which we model will be funded by a licensing partner. We adjust our launch timelines for the iadademstat programmes based on current visibility, with our valuation shifting modestly to €862.4m (€885.1m previously). We adjust our per-share valuation to €11.0 from €13.5, reflecting the increased number of shares outstanding following the equity raise.


Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc: New client, new therapeutic area

By Hybridan

  • Good Morning, Physiomics PLC (PYC) announced a contract with a new UK client.
  • We have published research on this which is attached and a snapshot of the research is below.
  • The third new client in two months is announced as a contract is awarded for a project involving rheumatoid arthritis, which is a new therapeutic area for the Company.

RANI: 1Q:25 Financial Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Rani is a clinical-stage biotherapeutics company developing the ingestible robotic RaniPill (RP) that enables oral delivery of biologics & other large molecules.
  • Its pipeline features clinical assets RT-102 (teriparatide for osteoporosis) & RT-111 (ustekinumab for psoriasis).
  • Both programs have completed Ph1 trials characterizing safety tolerability & pharmaco-kinetics.

SBC: 1Q25 Results Likely Reflect Benefits Recent Initiatives New Share Buyback Plan

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SBC has implemented strategic price revisions to drive customer growth & has revised its franchise fee structure to ramp as franchisees ramp their services, customer bases & revenue.
  • Additional initiatives include enhanced focus on a broader range of market niches, new service offerings, leveraging a multi-branded approach to expanding service offerings and expanding its footprint domestically & internationally.
  • SBC also recently authorized a share repurchase program of up to US$5m, with buybacks potentially beginning this month.

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Daily Brief Financials: Svenska Handelsbanken AB, NIFTY Index, Georgia Capital PLC, Deutsche Beteiligungs AG, Spectral AI, Yanlord Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Svenska Handelsbanken: Arbitraging Brought to Book
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered
  • Georgia Capital — Strong portfolio at a substantial discount
  • Deutsche Beteiligungs — Stay tuned for more in 2025
  • MDAI: 1Q:25 Results
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Svenska Handelsbanken: Arbitraging Brought to Book

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Handelsbanken B shares trade at a ~55% premium to A shares despite lower voting rights, liquidity, and index status — a rare and statistically extreme dislocation.
  • Regression and post-2020 cointegration confirm mean-reverting behavior, supporting a relative value trade favoring SHB A over SHB B.
  • Structural constraints on arbitrage and asymmetric flow dynamics may delay convergence, but the pricing gap remains fundamentally unjustified and actionable.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered

By Sankalp Singh

  • Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed  
  • Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.  
  • IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.  

Georgia Capital — Strong portfolio at a substantial discount

By Edison Investment Research

Georgia Capital (GCAP) delivered a solid NAV total return of 11.2% in Q125 in local currency terms (9.8% in GBP), continuing its strong 15.1% growth per annum since end-2018. Q125 NAV growth was driven primarily by Lion Finance Group’s stock performance (BGEO, formerly Bank of Georgia), which contributed 6.9pp to NAV performance. The strength of GCAP’s private portfolio continues to be reflected in robust earnings growth and sustained dividend flows. The group has reiterated its guidance to receive GEL180m in recurring dividends in 2025 (flat vs 2023 and 2024, which was sufficient to cover 169% of GCAP’s share buybacks over the last two years). Given the persistent wide discount to NAV (currently 37% to end-March NAV), GCAP remains focused on accretive share repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to disciplined capital allocation.


Deutsche Beteiligungs — Stay tuned for more in 2025

By Edison Investment Research

Deutsche Beteiligungs’ (DBAG’s) investment activity in Q125 was limited to one closed private equity (PE) investment (replacing external financing at an existing holding) and one private debt investment, with one add-on in its portfolio and no exits in the period. That said, it expects a significant pick-up in new investments, as well as three or four exits by Q126, despite the recent elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that several transactions are at an advanced stage. The higher deal pace should allow DBAG to further diversify its portfolio and deploy part of its dry powder. Its NAV increased by 1.7% in Q125, driven primarily by higher multiples, partly on the back of bids it received for some of its assets.


MDAI: 1Q:25 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
  • The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
  • Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land
  • On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating to Aa1 (stable) from Aaa (negative). The downgrade reflects the increase in US government debt and interest payment ratios for more than a decade to levels significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns, according to the agency.
  • Moody’s does not believe that current fiscal proposals under consideration will lead to material multi-year reductions in spending and deficits.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Seres Group , Toyota Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd., Vera Bradley, Matsuya Co Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected
  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely
  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?
  • Reasons Why the TSE’s Request to “improve IR System” Seems to Be Ineffective This Time
  • StubWorld: Toyota Industries/Motors, GMO Internet
  • Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price
  • VRA: Snapping the Store: Summer Begins with Changes; Reiterate Buy, $4 PT
  • Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term

By Travis Lundy

  • Friday 25 April, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) released earnings for last year, guidance for this year and a Bloomberg scoop suggested Toyota Motors chairman Akio TOYODA would launch an MBO.
  • In some ways surprising, but activists/”noisy shareholders” and TSE guidance on dual listings caused pressure, and Toyota Motors was trying to walk the good governance walk.
  • I discussed the situation here on Day 1, and here a few days later. Long-only shareholders sold. Today, Kyodo had a follow-up article. Then Nikkei. Looks more solid now. 

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

By Arun George

  • Kyodo news agency reported that Toyota Industries (6201 JP) plans to accept a tender offer by Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, potentially in May or June.
  • The Nikkei reported that Toyota plans to borrow JPY3 trillion to fund the acquisition. These articles provide more clarity on price, composition of the offeror, financing structure, and timeline. 
  • These articles increase the probability of a tender offer around JPY18,515 (JPY6 trillion market cap). At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely

By Brian Freitas


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

By Nico Rosti

  • Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
  • Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
  • Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.

Reasons Why the TSE’s Request to “improve IR System” Seems to Be Ineffective This Time

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE plans to mandate the development of IR system, but since most companies disclosed that they have already taken action, fewer companies will move to do something from now on.
  • Analysis of IR disclosure and stock valuations showed that IR disclosure scores did not differ among the five groups of companies by percentage change in Tobin’s Q. 
  • The fact that many companies haven’t been able to provide capital profitability and management strategies that investors seek has led to reluctance to hold briefings to communicate with overseas investors.

StubWorld: Toyota Industries/Motors, GMO Internet

By David Blennerhassett

  • Given recent – and ongoing developments – with Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and GMO Internet (4784 JP), I’m revisiting my NAVs.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group and GMO, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zhou Liu Fu’s fundamentals would not significantly improve due to the surge in gold prices, but would deteriorate instead due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.
  • The franchise model and declining profit margins have always been the issues. Zhou Liu Fu also has faced dual competition from traditional jewelry companies and emerging jewelry brands.
  • We are not optimistic about Zhou Liu Fu’s performance outlook. Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average.

VRA: Snapping the Store: Summer Begins with Changes; Reiterate Buy, $4 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $4 price target for Vera Bradley after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
  • May has seen a continued focus on key summer looks, with the main line stores emphasizing travel, Star Wars, new floral patterns and lightweight fabrics, while the outlets are fully focused on beach, straw and travel driven items.
  • Further, after the success in the outlets, the excitement for the Peanuts launch at the main line stores has been strong.

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

By Michael Causton


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Daily Brief Australia: Xanadu Mines, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) Inks Deal With Bastion After Zijin Tarries
  • Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel


Xanadu Mines (XAM AU) Inks Deal With Bastion After Zijin Tarries

By David Blennerhassett

  • Xanadu (XAM AU), a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, has entered a deal with Bastion, two weeks after an agreement with JV partner and major shareholder Zijin Mining (601899 CH) lapsed.
  • Bastion, which comprises Singapore-based Baroo and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren, are offering A$0.08/share in cash. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted. 
  • The off-market Offer is contingent on a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. CAAF (11.85%) is supportive. No word on how Zijin (19.8% stakeholder, before dilution) will play this. 

Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize our gleanings from the Champion Iron (CIA AU) presentation, which captures the cost curve and other interesting details on the DRI market. 
  • After declining below 100 USD/ton for 2 weeks, iron ore prices have slowly inched up towards 100 USD/ton, maintaining their level at the high end of the cost curve. 
  • A 100 USD/ton level bodes well for the cash flows of the larger low-cost players like Vale (VALE US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

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Daily Brief Singapore: First REIT, Ho Bee Land Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Yanlord Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-REITs outperform broader S-REIT market and sub-segments year to date
  • Directors in Developers & Maritime Stocks Elevating Interests
  • Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


REIT Watch – Healthcare S-REITs outperform broader S-REIT market and sub-segments year to date

By Geoff Howie

  • Healthcare S-REITs achieved a 6.2% average total return in 2025, with S$17.6 million net institutional inflows year-to-date.
  • ParkwayLife REIT’s 1Q25 gross revenue rose 7.3% to S$39.0 million, with a 9.1% increase in distributable income.
  • First REIT’s 1Q25 rental income declined 2.8% to S$25.4 million, with a 40.7% gearing ratio and no refinancing until May 2026.

Directors in Developers & Maritime Stocks Elevating Interests

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from May 9 to May 15, with a net outflow of S$55 million.
  • Director transactions included acquisitions by executives in companies like Ho Bee Land, Wing Tai Holdings, and Federal International (2000).
  • Marco Polo Marine’s revenue for 1HFY25 was S$52.7 million, with a gross margin improvement to 41.3 per cent.

Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • US$16.9 mn initiative to enhance productivity and quality in Northeast  
  • Stress on sheet-making infrastructure to fetch better price for farmers  
  • INROAD creates over 136,000 new smallholders in the Northeast  

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land
  • On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating to Aa1 (stable) from Aaa (negative). The downgrade reflects the increase in US government debt and interest payment ratios for more than a decade to levels significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns, according to the agency.
  • Moody’s does not believe that current fiscal proposals under consideration will lead to material multi-year reductions in spending and deficits.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Telcoware and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Telcoware: Tender Offer To Take the Company Private


Telcoware: Tender Offer To Take the Company Private

By Douglas Kim

  • Telcoware announced that the largest shareholder and CEO of the company (Keum Han-Tae) will be undertaking a tender offer of 2.332 million shares (25.24%) to take the company private.
  • Tender offer price is 13,000 won per share. Tender offer period is from 19 May to 10 June. 
  • Telcoware has 4.08 million treasury shares, accounting for 44.1% of outstanding shares. 

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Daily Brief India: JSW Energy Ltd, Aarti Industries, NIFTY Index, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Energy: Balancing Strong Growth Aspirations with Elevated Leverage Add Ticke
  • Aarti Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Volume Recovery Drives Sequential Growth
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered
  • Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders


JSW Energy: Balancing Strong Growth Aspirations with Elevated Leverage Add Ticke

By Rahul Jain

  • Unveiled a Rs1.3 lakh crore capex program is planned over FY26–FY30 to reach 30 GW total capacity and 40 GWh energy storage by FY30.
  • Reported a 16% year-on-year increase in Q4 FY25 net profit to ₹408 crore, with revenue rising 16% to ₹3,189 crore.
  •   Trades at ~46x P/E—above Adani Power (~17x) and Tata Power (~33x).

Aarti Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Volume Recovery Drives Sequential Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) posted a solid 9% QoQ revenue growth, driven by higher volumes in the energy sector.
  • The company is navigating external volatility, including US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, while maintaining growth through volume recovery and diversification.
  • The solid volume uptick in key sectors positions Aarti for continued growth in FY26, despite margin pressures.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered

By Sankalp Singh

  • Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed  
  • Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.  
  • IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.  

Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • US$16.9 mn initiative to enhance productivity and quality in Northeast  
  • Stress on sheet-making infrastructure to fetch better price for farmers  
  • INROAD creates over 136,000 new smallholders in the Northeast  

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