Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
  • Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)


Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

By Arun George

  • On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
  • Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)). 
  • Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill

By Arun George



Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
  • Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
  • Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

By Richard Howe

  • S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.

  • This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.

  • The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.


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Daily Brief Macro: Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious
  • Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?


Trend Asset Allocation Model Update: Still Cautious

By Cam Hui

  • Our Trend Asset Allocation Model is a market timing model with a record from 2013. A model portfolio using its out-of-sample signals achieved 85/15 like returns with 60/40 like risk.
  • Our review shows that the main components of the global economy are either weak or neutral. 
  • This calls for a risk-off defensive posture to portfolio construction. Trump’s trade wars have only just begun and recession risk is rising.

Trust the Thrust, or Sell in May?

By Cam Hui

  • We are seeing a resurgence of buy signals, or at least constructive signs for stock prices. 
  • Against that, the stock market is also facing a number of bearish headwinds, such as the “Sell in May” negative seasonality influence.
  • We believe the intermediate path of equity prices is down. However, the reflex rally is a much-hated one and the short-term pain trade may be up.

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Most Read: Laopu Gold, Evolution Mining, Hanwha Ocean , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), S&P/ASX 200, Smartpay Holdings, Toyota Industries, Shibaura Electronics, Oisix ra daichi, BP PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
  • Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
  • Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura
  • Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech
  • Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

By Brian Freitas

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
  • Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

By Brian Freitas

  • Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
  • Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
  • Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
  • In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.  
  • In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

  • Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
  • Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
  • Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20

By Arun George

  • On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
  • Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)). 
  • Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Rio Tinto, Hainan Meilan, Fujitsu General

By David Blennerhassett

  • Toyota Chair TOYODA made a proposal to take over Toyota Industries (6201 JP), not because he loves forklifts etc; but an opportunistic way to buy a large block of Toyota.
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal to review its dual-company structure. That was the right outcome.
  • Hainan Meilan (357 HK)‘s H-share Offer price of HK$10.62/share is not compelling; but it’s not meant to be, as the SPA Buyer and Seller are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.


Oisix: Major Growth Expected in Foodtech

By Michael Causton

  • Given Japan’s growing interest in food-based health solutions, multiple players are looking to build businesses in the field across gut health and dietary solutions for the old and infirm.
  • Oisix, the leading online food retailer has developed an incubator for start ups in this area.
  • It is hoping to create a mini silicon valley for food tech businesses.

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
  • Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
  • Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

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Daily Brief Australia: Airtasker, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction
  • Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push


Airtasker Ltd – Key RaaS KPIs heading in the right direction

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
  • ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
  • Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
  • Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

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Daily Brief United States: S&P Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)


Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

By Richard Howe

  • S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.

  • This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.

  • The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.


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Daily Brief India: JSW Infrastructure, Afcons Infrastructure Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
  • Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries


JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
  • Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
  • Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • AFCONS debuted on the NSE on 4 November 2024. As of 2 May 2025, the price was 420 INR resulting in a market cap of ~$1.8bn.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to be added to Global-F at the June 2025 review with a free float of 31.7% following the 3-month lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to experience a free float increase in Global-M from 35% to 45% at the August 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry of the pre-IPO shareholders.

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Daily Brief China: Chongqing Rural Commercial Ban, Akeso Biopharma Inc, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), CF PharmTech, S.F. Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge
  • ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
  • Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition
  • Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index during this index review based on the latest available data.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray’s Trouble,Views on Akeso’s Plunge

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.
  • Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.
  • Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
  • On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.

Pre-IPO CF PharmTech – The Outlook Is Bleak Due to VBP and Fierce Competition

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Unlike most biotech companies in Hong Kong which focus on innovative drugs, CF PharmTech mainly produces generic drugs. Its revenue mainly comes from CF017, with high single product risk.
  • The pipelines have to face fierce competition and don’t have advantage in R&D progress in from of competing candidates. CF PharmTech is hard to generate decent profits due to VBP. 
  • Since its establishment, CF PharmTech has raised its valuation step by step through multiple rounds of capital increase and equity transfer.Valuation was RMB4.021 billion in 2022, which is already high.

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
  • Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
  • Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Makino Milling Machine Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors


Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill

By Arun George



Pre AGM Annual Securities Report Disclosure as a Clue to a True Dialogue with Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Based on experience with “TSE’s request,” it’s impossible to request the same level of disclosure from every company. Companies that overseas investors can target should be requested to disclose proactively.
  • This “FSA’s request” is expected to potentially cause companies to lose the effectiveness of the tactics they have used to control AGMs. Future steps are expected.
  • The slowdown in profit margin growth may also increase calls for improved corporate governance practices, with more companies reducing cross-shareholdings and launching stronger shareholder returns.

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Daily Brief Industrials: JSW Infrastructure, Makino Milling Machine Co, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Amaero International Ltd, S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated
  • Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
  • Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries
  • ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha
  • Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push
  • Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract


JSW Infra: Expansion Plans Prudent; Valuation Multiples Remain Elevated

By Rahul Jain

  • Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
  • Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
  • Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.


Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS IN): Global Index Inclusion & Upweights Post Lock-Up Expiries

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • AFCONS debuted on the NSE on 4 November 2024. As of 2 May 2025, the price was 420 INR resulting in a market cap of ~$1.8bn.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to be added to Global-F at the June 2025 review with a free float of 31.7% following the 3-month lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
  • AFCONS is forecasted to experience a free float increase in Global-M from 35% to 45% at the August 2025 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry of the pre-IPO shareholders.

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) – CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
  • On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.

Amaero International Ltd – New five-year contract kicks off commercialisation push

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
  • Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
  • Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
  • Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BP PLC, Petroleos Mexicanos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views


Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
  • Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
  • Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
  • Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
  • YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI

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