Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: Grasim Industries, NIFTY Index, Steel Authority of India, Tata Consultancy Svcs and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed
  • Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
  • #3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)


Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
  • Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
  • While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

By John Ley

  • Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
  • We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
  • The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

By Rahul Jain

  • SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
  • Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
  • SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , Aurionpro Solutions (AUPS IN) , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN)  have shared major updates across demand outlook, sector focus, expansion plans, and strategic pivots. 
  • Each company is aligning efforts to navigate macro uncertainties, tap digital or sectoral growth, and optimize capital allocation.
  • From TCS’s cautious outlook and margin levers to Apollo’s digital push and Indigo’s hospitality play, these moves reflect a broad spectrum of strategies among market leaders.

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Daily Brief United States: Chagee Holdings, Amgen Inc, General Motors, Gold, Aptargroup Inc, Crude Oil, TuHURA Biosciences, Stellantis NV, Natural Gas, Ferguson and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book
  • Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?
  • General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?
  • How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
  • Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
  • HURA: 2024 Financial Results
  • Stellantis on the Ropes: Tariffs, Layoffs, and Factory Pauses — But Is A Turnaround Taking Shape?
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts
  • FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…


Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book

By IPO Boutique

  • Chagee’s order book is heavily influenced from Asian Investors as the deal is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.
  • The underwriters and company came to market with a manageable size transaction and an attractive valuation.
  • The geopolitical headwinds, specifically between China and the United States, is forcing many traditional IPO investors to stay on the sidelines. 

Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?

By Baptista Research

  • Amgen is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable player in the obesity drug market, a sector that has witnessed explosive growth due to the popularity of GLP-1 based therapies from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
  • The company’s investigational drug MariTide is generating significant interest following promising Phase II results showing up to 20% weight loss with monthly dosing.
  • With two Phase III trials now underway—targeting both diabetic and non-diabetic patients—Amgen is accelerating its strategy to gain a slice of what analysts forecast to be a $100 billion market by 2030.

General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?

By Baptista Research

  • General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
  • The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
  • This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

By The Commodity Report

  • President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
  • Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
  • Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1

By Upslope Capital Management

  • Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
  • This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
  • April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.

HURA: 2024 Financial Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • TuHURA is a clinical-stage, oncology-focused biotechnology company advancing innate immune agonists, checkpoint inhibitors & antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).
  • It offers the IFx platform technology featuring the IFx-2.0 tumoral injection delivery approach for Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) & the IFx-3.0 intravenous delivery approach for lymphoma.
  • IFx encodes a bacterial protein to be expressed in cancer cells, activating the innate immune system & subsequent cascade that may eliminate the tumor.

Stellantis on the Ropes: Tariffs, Layoffs, and Factory Pauses — But Is A Turnaround Taking Shape?

By Baptista Research

  • Stellantis NV, the automotive giant behind brands like Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, and Maserati, is facing one of its toughest operating environments since the company was formed in 2021.
  • The sudden reimposition of 25% tariffs on auto imports under President Donald Trump’s administration has triggered a cascade of financial and operational consequences.
  • From halting production at key plants in Canada and Mexico to laying off hundreds of U.S. workers and facing multiple credit rating downgrades, Stellantis’ profitability and global supply chain flexibility have taken a direct hit.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
  • U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.

FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…

By Baptista Research

  • Ferguson plc’s latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.
  • Organic revenue contributed 2.1%, with an additional 1.2% growth from acquisitions.

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Daily Brief China: Midea Group, Chagee Holdings, Suzhou Kematek, Anjoy Foods Group, China Resources Beverage, BYD , Duality Biotherapeutics, Johnson Electric, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
  • Anjoy Foods (安井) A/H: Needed by Families, But Besieged by Similar Industries and Health Concerns
  • China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release
  • Quiddity HK Connect Northbound Tracker (Q1 2025 Vs 5 Previous Quarters)
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.
  • Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) – The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook


Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
  • Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
  • The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
  • Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

Anjoy Foods (安井) A/H: Needed by Families, But Besieged by Similar Industries and Health Concerns

By Ming Lu

  • A typical Chinese family needs quick-frozen foods and Anjoy is the largest producer.
  • Fresh foods and well-done foods compete with quick frozen foods.
  • Customers are concerned that producers may use too much preservative.

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Quiddity HK Connect Northbound Tracker (Q1 2025 Vs 5 Previous Quarters)

By Travis Lundy

  • Last August, the mainland exchanges stopped providing data on Northbound positions and trading. They decided to show the data once a quarter.
  • We decided to add a tool to the repertoire to show this past quarter’s flows per Northbound-eligible stock in a variety of ways. 
  • Click on a name and get the quarterly chart of the desired metric (position, Flow (shares), Flow as % of float or shares out, etc)

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality Biotherapeutics raised HKD 1,512m (USD 194m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, April 14th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products and analyzed its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Emperor Group is consolidating a site in Sai Ying Pun for a 62-home project in Hong Kong, promising a significant development.
  • EQT has appointed a former KKR executive to take charge of their real estate operations in Japan, signaling a strategic move.
  • A prominent mainland tycoon has sold a condo in The Peak for $66 million, marking a significant transaction in the luxury property market.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) – The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.
  • Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.
  • There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.

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Daily Brief Japan: TKP Corporation , Money Forward , TV Asahi Holdings, Neos Corp, J Frontier Co Ltd, Toumei , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order
  • Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price
  • TV Asahi Placement – Mini Share Buyback Should Buffer Deal
  • Neos Corp (3627 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q3 FY03/25 Flash update
  • Toumei (4439 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
  • Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Pseudo Cross-Shareholdings Will Hinder Management Reform


TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order

By Travis Lundy

  • TKP Corporation (3479 JP) is a fascinating little company. It rents space. From people. To people. Then adds on services. Meeting, recruiting, training, seminar, banquet, party, etc rooms.
  • Last year they bought control of two small businesses to add features. Revenues are up. The new FY suggests revenue growth, OP growth, and now a buyback.
  • The buyback is the interesting bit. They did one last FY with interesting parameters, and Quiddity has a new tool we are trying out, so we showcase an example here.

Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q1 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations, with slowing growth in key business segment and corporate customer adds.
  • Macroeconomic risks, including US tariffs, may be weighing on business confidence and new customer acquisition.
  • Valuation now looks attractive, trading at a steep discount to global peers despite similar fundamentals.

TV Asahi Placement – Mini Share Buyback Should Buffer Deal

By Nicholas Tan

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$133m from selling their respective stakes in TV Asahi Holdings (9409 JP) .
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Neos Corp (3627 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY02/25, TECMIRA’s revenue increased by 27.8% YoY to JPY11.2bn, with all segments achieving growth.
  • The company recorded an operating profit of JPY91mn, recovering from a JPY123mn loss in FY02/24, despite a net loss.
  • For FY02/26, TECMIRA forecasts revenue of JPY11.5bn, adjusted EBITDA of JPY680mn, and net income of JPY100mn.

J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q3 FY03/25 Flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY16.4bn (+32.1% YoY) and net income of JPY121mn, reversing previous losses.
  • Medical Care Sales segment saw strong growth from D2C sales, driven by flagship products and enhanced advertising efficiency.
  • Healthcare Marketing business achieved significant EBITDA boost from a profitable corporate project completed in Q3 FY05/25.

Toumei (4439 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY08/25, Toumei reported revenue of JPY14.5bn, operating profit of JPY1.7bn, and net income of JPY1.2bn.
  • Revenue grew 31.4% YoY, with significant increases in Office Denki 119 (56.5% YoY) and Office Solutions (84.3% YoY).
  • Operating profit rose 86.4% YoY, driven by higher revenue and improved SG&A ratio, despite increased procurement costs.

Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Pseudo Cross-Shareholdings Will Hinder Management Reform

By Aki Matsumoto

  • An increasing number of companies had eliminated shareholder benefit plans, but reducing cross-shareholdings and caution toward activist investors may have been the motivating factors in the reversal of this trend.
  • If managers distract from management reform by gaining the support of individual investors through shareholder benefits, the stock benefit program will become a pseudo cross-shareholding.
  • Shareholder benefit programs and shareholder returns cannot be compared in the same manner. Companies shouldn’t underestimate the fact that the problem with this lies in “principle of equality of shareholders.”

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ashtead, Ferguson and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AHT LN – Why This Capital-Efficient Powerhouse Is Pushing Hard For Specialty and Mega Projects?
  • FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…


AHT LN – Why This Capital-Efficient Powerhouse Is Pushing Hard For Specialty and Mega Projects?

By Baptista Research

  • Ashtead Group plc reported a solid set of third-quarter results marked by a stable performance amid varying market conditions.
  • The company experienced a 5% year-on-year increase in both group and U.S. rental revenues, with total revenues remaining flat due to anticipated lower used equipment sales.
  • The company achieved a record EBITDA of $3.9 billion and a profit before tax (PBT) of $1.7 billion.

FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…

By Baptista Research

  • Ferguson plc’s latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.
  • Organic revenue contributed 2.1%, with an additional 1.2% growth from acquisitions.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Suzhou Kematek, Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia, Grasim Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, John Wood, Steel Authority of India, Gold, Aptargroup Inc, Crude Oil, Natural Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
  • Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot
  • Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
  • VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands
  • Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara
  • Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
  • How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
  • Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
  • Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas. 
  • The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products. 
  • SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
  • Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
  • While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  VRG’s Lao division scripts US$14.85 million in profit in 2024  
  • VRG’s rubber output in Laos touches 34,592 tons in 2024  
  • Prime Minister asks VRG to start tire units in Laos

Running on Fumes: Wood Group’s Last Shot with Sidara

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sidara’s 35p offer provides a 40% premium with no dilution, offering certainty and urgently needed capital, making it the most favorable path for shareholders amid financial distress.
  • A standalone capital raise of £342m at 20p would dilute existing shareholders by over 71%, highlighting the severe downside if the Sidara deal collapses or fails regulatory approval.
  • Having rejected Apollo’s 240p offer in 2023, the Board is now recommending a 35p bid—an 85% discount—after destroying credibility, mismanaging cash, and losing shareholder trust.

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

By Rahul Jain

  • SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
  • Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
  • SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

By The Commodity Report

  • President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
  • Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
  • Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1

By Upslope Capital Management

  • Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
  • This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
  • April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
  • U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Money Forward , Telefonica SA, Neos Corp, Flagright, Toumei and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation
  • Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price
  • Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru
  • TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release
  • Neos Corp (3627 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
  • Flagright clinches US$4.3M to bolster AI-native anti-money laundering solutions | e27
  • Toumei (4439 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update


Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Rapid changes in US’s tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI’s forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
  • Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
  • Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.

Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q1 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations, with slowing growth in key business segment and corporate customer adds.
  • Macroeconomic risks, including US tariffs, may be weighing on business confidence and new customer acquisition.
  • Valuation now looks attractive, trading at a steep discount to global peers despite similar fundamentals.

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Telefónica sold its Peruvian subsidiary to Integra Tec for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion in debt, following the unit’s bankruptcy filing and prolonged tax disputes in Peru.
  • The sale marks a strategic step in Telefónica’s Hispam exit, following disposals in Argentina and Colombia, and reinforces the company’s focus on core markets with higher returns.
  • Despite crystallizing a €620 million loss, the transaction removes a distressed asset, improves group visibility, and underscores management’s commitment to financial discipline and geopolitical de-risking across Latin America.

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

By Nico Rosti

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement.
  • The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
  • Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.

Neos Corp (3627 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY02/25, TECMIRA’s revenue increased by 27.8% YoY to JPY11.2bn, with all segments achieving growth.
  • The company recorded an operating profit of JPY91mn, recovering from a JPY123mn loss in FY02/24, despite a net loss.
  • For FY02/26, TECMIRA forecasts revenue of JPY11.5bn, adjusted EBITDA of JPY680mn, and net income of JPY100mn.

Flagright clinches US$4.3M to bolster AI-native anti-money laundering solutions | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based Flagright, an AI-native anti-money laundering (AML) compliance and risk management platform, has announced a US$4.3 million seed funding round.
  • The investment was led by Frontline Ventures, with significant participation from existing investors including Y Combinator, Pioneer Fund, and Moonfire Ventures.
  • Rubin Ritter (ex-co-CEO of Zalando), André Silva (ex-Global Head of Expansion at Revolut), Phillip Chambers (CEO of Orbex), Ahmed Badr (COO of GoCardless), Teng Sherng Lim (ex-CCO of Advance.

Toumei (4439 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY08/25, Toumei reported revenue of JPY14.5bn, operating profit of JPY1.7bn, and net income of JPY1.2bn.
  • Revenue grew 31.4% YoY, with significant increases in Office Denki 119 (56.5% YoY) and Office Solutions (84.3% YoY).
  • Operating profit rose 86.4% YoY, driven by higher revenue and improved SG&A ratio, despite increased procurement costs.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ashtead, Ferguson and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AHT LN – Why This Capital-Efficient Powerhouse Is Pushing Hard For Specialty and Mega Projects?
  • FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…


AHT LN – Why This Capital-Efficient Powerhouse Is Pushing Hard For Specialty and Mega Projects?

By Baptista Research

  • Ashtead Group plc reported a solid set of third-quarter results marked by a stable performance amid varying market conditions.
  • The company experienced a 5% year-on-year increase in both group and U.S. rental revenues, with total revenues remaining flat due to anticipated lower used equipment sales.
  • The company achieved a record EBITDA of $3.9 billion and a profit before tax (PBT) of $1.7 billion.

FERG LN: Will Its Adapting to Market Dynamics & Deflationary Pressures Support Sustainable Margin…

By Baptista Research

  • Ferguson plc’s latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in net sales to $6.9 billion for the second quarter, despite contending with 2% commodity-led deflation.
  • Organic revenue contributed 2.1%, with an additional 1.2% growth from acquisitions.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Amgen Inc, Universal Vision Biotechnology, Duality Biotherapeutics, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group), TuHURA Biosciences, J Frontier Co Ltd, Soligenix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?
  • Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update
  • Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) – The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook
  • HURA: 2024 Financial Results
  • J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q3 FY03/25 Flash update
  • SNGX: Updated IIS Data Shows 75% Response Rate and Three Complete Responses


Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?

By Baptista Research

  • Amgen is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable player in the obesity drug market, a sector that has witnessed explosive growth due to the popularity of GLP-1 based therapies from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
  • The company’s investigational drug MariTide is generating significant interest following promising Phase II results showing up to 20% weight loss with monthly dosing.
  • With two Phase III trials now underway—targeting both diabetic and non-diabetic patients—Amgen is accelerating its strategy to gain a slice of what analysts forecast to be a $100 billion market by 2030.

Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points

By Tina Banerjee

  • Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT) is struggling with expansion plans, decelerated revenue growth, and unfavorable revenue mix. 2024 revenue growth of 4% is significant deterioration from 17% reported in 2023.
  • China business remained challenging. In 2024, revenue from China 22% YoY to NT$594M.  Both the number of partnered hospitals and self-operated clinics/hospitals in China decreased during 2024.
  • Through the first three months of 2025, revenue growth has not shown any sign of improvement. 1Q25 revenue grew just 5% YoY to NT$1,123M.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality Biotherapeutics raised HKD 1,512m (USD 194m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, April 14th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products and analyzed its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) – The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.
  • Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.
  • There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.

HURA: 2024 Financial Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • TuHURA is a clinical-stage, oncology-focused biotechnology company advancing innate immune agonists, checkpoint inhibitors & antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).
  • It offers the IFx platform technology featuring the IFx-2.0 tumoral injection delivery approach for Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) & the IFx-3.0 intravenous delivery approach for lymphoma.
  • IFx encodes a bacterial protein to be expressed in cancer cells, activating the innate immune system & subsequent cascade that may eliminate the tumor.

J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q3 FY03/25 Flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY16.4bn (+32.1% YoY) and net income of JPY121mn, reversing previous losses.
  • Medical Care Sales segment saw strong growth from D2C sales, driven by flagship products and enhanced advertising efficiency.
  • Healthcare Marketing business achieved significant EBITDA boost from a profitable corporate project completed in Q3 FY05/25.

SNGX: Updated IIS Data Shows 75% Response Rate and Three Complete Responses

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On April 14, 2025, Soligenix, Inc. (SNGX) announced interim results from the ongoing, open label, investigator initiated study (IIS) evaluating HyBryte (synthetic hypericin) treatment for up to 54 weeks in patients with early stage cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL).
  • Of the eight evaluable patients at Week 18, six (75%) achieved ‘treatment success’, which is defined as a =50% improvement in the cumulative mCAILS (modified Composite Assessment of Index Lesion Severity) score compared to baseline.
  • Four patients have completed the 54-week treatment with an average maximum improvement in mCAILS of 85%.

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Daily Brief Financials: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, TKP Corporation , NIFTY Index, Johnson Electric, JDC Group AG, ING Groep NV, Tata Consultancy Svcs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • FSS Bans Arb in Local MM Books: Identifying Opportunities from Short-Term Inefficiencies
  • TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order
  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.
  • JDC Group — Operational leverage becoming visible
  • ING Groep NV – What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
  • #3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)


FSS Bans Arb in Local MM Books: Identifying Opportunities from Short-Term Inefficiencies

By Sanghyun Park

  • The FSS is banning arb trades under the MM book, requiring separate books for any arb positions to keep them distinct from MM flow.
  • Most local shops lack the resources to set up a separate arb desk. Splitting teams, creating new workflows, and hiring extra staff isn’t feasible given their tight P&L.
  • Building a tracker for MM dropouts could spot dislocations, as the crackdown creates short-term inefficiencies—if we’re dialed in, there’s alpha to be made.

TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order

By Travis Lundy

  • TKP Corporation (3479 JP) is a fascinating little company. It rents space. From people. To people. Then adds on services. Meeting, recruiting, training, seminar, banquet, party, etc rooms.
  • Last year they bought control of two small businesses to add features. Revenues are up. The new FY suggests revenue growth, OP growth, and now a buyback.
  • The buyback is the interesting bit. They did one last FY with interesting parameters, and Quiddity has a new tool we are trying out, so we showcase an example here.

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

By John Ley

  • Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
  • We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
  • The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Emperor Group is consolidating a site in Sai Ying Pun for a 62-home project in Hong Kong, promising a significant development.
  • EQT has appointed a former KKR executive to take charge of their real estate operations in Japan, signaling a strategic move.
  • A prominent mainland tycoon has sold a condo in The Peak for $66 million, marking a significant transaction in the luxury property market.

JDC Group — Operational leverage becoming visible

By Edison Investment Research

JDC Group’s (JDC’s) final FY24 results were in line with the preliminary numbers published on 10 March. FY24 growth was driven by the platform Advisortech division, but Advisory activities were also strong. Management provided FY25 guidance for revenue of €245–265m and EBITDA of €18.5–20.5m, along with mid-term guidance of €450–500m in turnover and EBITDA of €40–50m by 2030, which we see as both realistic and conservative. With an FY25e EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.7x, JDC’s valuation still appears undemanding, particularly compared to platform peers. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) values JDC at €34.56/share (from €34.04/share previously).


ING Groep NV – What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail sets sights on becoming the UK’s biggest parcel locker provider • Triodios Bank | IPO likely to be delayed until June • PostNL / IDS | Conservative leader calling for reassessment of IDS takeover approval • Dutch banking sector | strong lobby for a new national investment bank • E-commerce sector | Temu aims for Europe to become its largest market

#3 Leadership Bytes(11-Apr-25)

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , Aurionpro Solutions (AUPS IN) , Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN)  have shared major updates across demand outlook, sector focus, expansion plans, and strategic pivots. 
  • Each company is aligning efforts to navigate macro uncertainties, tap digital or sectoral growth, and optimize capital allocation.
  • From TCS’s cautious outlook and margin levers to Apollo’s digital push and Indigo’s hospitality play, these moves reflect a broad spectrum of strategies among market leaders.

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