Daily Briefs

• Discussion on potential tariffs and their impact on global markets, with a focus on Canada, China, and Mexico
• Analysis of the upcoming BOJ meeting and its potential impact on the Japanese yen
• Update on UK’s economic challenges, including concerns about fiscal math and potential trade war implications

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• KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
• With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
• ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24

• HSBC Holdings plc reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of its ongoing strategic initiatives.
• Key points from the earnings call highlight the firm’s continued growth, strategic restructuring, and some external influences, creating a nuanced outlook for potential investors.
• On the financial front, HSBC posted a profit before tax of $8.5 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period last year, on a constant currency basis.

• Wells Fargo & Company demonstrated notable progress in its fourth quarter of 2024, underscoring a year marked by strengthening earnings profiles and risk control achievements.
• The firm showed both strategic resilience and adaptation in meeting its diverse operational objectives amid evolving market conditions.
• Looking at the positives, Wells Fargo expanded its net income and fee-based revenue, achieving an 11% rise in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous year.

• Nikkei has spent 55 trading days with 1M historic vol less than 1M implied vol, averaging about 4 points less.
• The trading range since October looks similar to the trading range the market went through from May to July with similar volatility characteristics. 
• Big move on Monday didn’t spark volatility with market settling into a very narrow range to finish the week down 1.89%.

• Kospi rebounds from weak performance at the start the week to finish essentially unchanged.
• 1M implied vol came off 2.3 points and is now at the 22nd percentile over the past year.
• Thursday’s 1.44% gain saw overwhelming Call activity with 3.6 Calls trading for every Put.

• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, MUFG, reported a record-high net profit of JPY 1,258.1 billion for the first half of FY 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year.
• This achievement represents an 83% progression towards its FY 2024 profit target of JPY 1.5 trillion.
• The positive financial results were largely attributable to increased profitability in customer segments and substantial net gains from the sale of equity holdings.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
• In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
• Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.

• Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) demonstrated robust performance in its 2024 fourth-quarter results, revealing both strengths and potential challenges in its operational and financial outcomes.
• The bank’s reported earnings stood at $4.2 billion, which includes $265 million from its acquisition of HSBC Canada.
• Adjusted earnings showed an 18% year-over-year increase to $4.4 billion, driven largely by market appreciation and strong client activities.

• Toronto-Dominion Bank Group’s Q4 2024 financial performance presents a mix of positive developments and notable challenges.
• The bank reported a quarter with total earnings of $3.2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72, both metrics reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8% and 5% respectively.
• Notably, the bank’s revenue grew by 12% year-over-year, underscored by a strong performance in market-related businesses and Canadian volume growth.