Daily Briefs

• Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
• Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
• Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.

• Crude oil futures drifting amid choppy trade Thursday before regaining some ground after benchmarks broke out of the recent trading range to test two-week lows, although surging gasoil cracks were lending some support.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.45/b (2100 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.52/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.54/b against a previous close of $59.60/b.
• Crude retreated midweek as concerns over a supply glut in Q1 continued to weigh on sentiment, with demand growth seen falling well short of fresh supply this year and next.

• Philex Mining is at a critical transition point, shifting focus from its maturing Padcal mine to the large-scale Silangan copper-gold project, which is the primary driver for future value. The successful execution and commissioning of Silangan, expected by Q1 2026, is paramount to the investment thesis.
• The company’s financial performance has been impacted by the natural decline of the Padcal mine and volatile commodity prices, leading to decreased revenues and negative free cash flow in recent periods. Future financial health is heavily dependent on the production ramp-up at Silangan and a favorable commodity price environment.
• While the long-term outlook for copper is robust, driven by the global energy transition, and the gold market remains strong due to macroeconomic uncertainty, Philex faces significant near-term risks. These include project execution risks at Silangan (cost overruns, delays), commodity price volatility, and the evolving regulatory and fiscal landscape for mining in the Philippines.

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• We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
• Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
• 3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
• Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
• Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.

• Meren is uniquely positioned as a disciplined, cash-generative independent E&P focused on offshore African assets. 
• Current production is from deepwater Nigerian assets that have high netbacks and generate cash flows to fund both a $100-million annual base dividend and organic growth. 
• Meren has significant exposure to the world-class Orange Basin discoveries offshore Namibia and South Africa. 

• Phillips 66 delivered a performance in its third-quarter 2025 results characterized by strong operational execution across its diverse business segments despite some challenges.
• The company, under the leadership of CEO Mark Lashier, continues to focus strategically on strengthening its core operations, particularly in refining and midstream activities.
• A notable highlight of the quarter was the high utilization rate of the refining segment, achieving 99% – the highest since 2018, which reflects effective operational management aimed at maximizing outputs from existing capacities.

• Range Resources Corporation recently reported its third-quarter 2025 financial outcomes, demonstrating both strengths and challenges within its operations.
• The company’s financial performance showed a consistent execution of its strategic plan, with an all-in capital expenditure of $190 million resulting in a production output of approximately 2.2 Bcf equivalent per day.
• This performance aligns with Range Resources’ year-to-date investment of $491 million, keeping it on target with the annual guidance range of $650 million to $680 million.

• Revenue increased by 5.3% YoY to JPY192.0bn, with net income rising 17.1% YoY to JPY9.8bn.
• Segment operating profits showed varied growth, with notable increases in packaging inks and stable raw material costs.
• Forex impacts and structural market changes influenced revenue and operating profit across segments, with mixed YoY performance.

• Sales rose 13.2% YoY to JPY67.8bn, with operating profit up 22.2% YoY to JPY15.2bn.
• Electronics segment sales reached JPY46.3bn (+8.9% YoY), with a segment profit increase of 14.5% YoY.
• Medical and Pharmaceuticals segment sales were JPY18.5bn (+22.4% YoY), segment profit surged 160.6% YoY.