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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Eoflow, Gilead Sciences, Viatris, Royalty Pharma , NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands
  • Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]
  • TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie
  • Gilead Sciences: Innovations in Oncology & Cellular Therapy Along With Anti-Viral Focus! – Major Drivers
  • Viatris Inc.: Unlocking The Dry Eye Disease Market With Tyrvaya! – Major Drivers
  • Royalty Pharma: Expanding Clinical and Regulatory Event Horizons! – Major Drivers
  • NRBO: Data from Part 1 of Phase 1 Trial of DA-1726 in 3Q24


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
  • The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM’s profits or prospects.
  • If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 

Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 21 August, Eoflow (294090 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 9.1 million new shares, representing share dilution of 23%.
  • Based on the expected rights offering issue price of 9,040 won, the company is expected to raise 82.2 billion won in this capital raise. 
  • Eoflow has monthly cash burn rate of about 3.3 billion won. If the rights offering is successful, it would have adequate capital resources for about a couple of years. 

TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) flagged a 60-70% drop in its 1H24E net profit versus 1H23, due to reduced sales/profit of TCM concentrate, bad debt provisions, and remedial taxes. 
  • MAC triggers? No – Sinopharm won’t exercise such right, even if one was ostensibly triggered. I’d be surprised if Sinopharm wasn’t fully aware of TCM’s underlying operations. 
  • Get involved on any dips today. Trading wide at a 11.7%/38.7% gross/annualised spread, assuming Dec-end payment.

Gilead Sciences: Innovations in Oncology & Cellular Therapy Along With Anti-Viral Focus! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences Inc. showcased a solid performance for the second quarter of 2024, marked by robust commercial execution and growth across key therapeutic areas such as HIV, liver diseases, and oncology.
  • Notably, Biktarvy, an HIV treatment, observed an 8% year-over-year growth, while Trodelvy in oncology saw a 23% increase, and cell therapy revenues increased by 11%.
  • Additionally, the company reported disciplined management of operating expenses which significantly contributed to bottom-line growth.

Viatris Inc.: Unlocking The Dry Eye Disease Market With Tyrvaya! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viatris has delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2024, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of operational revenue growth.
  • Under the leadership of CEO Scott Smith, the company, which was formed from the merging of Mylan and Upjohn, a division of Pfizer, has effectively integrated two global entities and streamlined its operations through strategic divestitures.
  • This strategic realignment has evidently positioned Viatris at a pivotal point for future growth, focusing strongly on expanding its innovative products alongside its stable base business.

Royalty Pharma: Expanding Clinical and Regulatory Event Horizons! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royalty Pharma experienced a strong second quarter for the 2024 fiscal year, outperforming earlier guidance with a 12% increase in portfolio receipts which include royalty and other income.
  • The company’s robust performance can be attributed to an 11% growth in royalty receipts, indicating solid recurring cash flow from their extensive and high-quality portfolio of more than 35 commercial products.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

NRBO: Data from Part 1 of Phase 1 Trial of DA-1726 in 3Q24

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On August 14, 2024, NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NRBO) announced financial results for the second quarter of 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company recently completed enrollment in the single ascending dose (SAD) Part 1 portion of the Phase 1 trial of DA-1726 and we anticipate topline results in the third quarter of 2024.
  • The multiple ascending dose (MAD) Part 2 portion of the Phase 1 trial is enrolling and topline results are expected in the first quarter of 2025.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: DB Hitek Co., Ltd., Xiaomi Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Workday Inc Class A, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Hon Hai Precision Industry, IonQ , Trade Desk /, ams AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek
  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24, Revenue up by 32%, Electric Vehicle Profit to Follow, Buy
  • TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC’s ‘Foundry 2.0’ Is Significant
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Aug-2024): SE Asia & India semi supply chains deployment
  • Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound
  • IonQ Inc.: Acceleration of Quantum Computing Milestones Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • The Trade Desk Inc.: A Story Of Expanded Connected TV (CTV) Partnerships & Retail Media Network Expansion! – Major Drivers
  • AMS Osram – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

By Sanghyun Park

  • From early June until yesterday, local pension funds have purchased nearly 4% of DB HiTek’s SO. This places DB HiTek in a dominant first position in their net buying list.
  • The timing of local pension funds beginning to buy DB HiTek coincidentally aligns with May 22, when DB Inc was requested by the KFTC to transition into a holding company.
  • Focus on potential price impact from DB Inc.’s buying and value-up index inflows. Considering a relative overweight in DB HiTek may be strategic despite some risk.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24, Revenue up by 32%, Electric Vehicle Profit to Follow, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Excluding the new business electrical vehicle, total revenue increased by 23% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Smartphone shipments grew faster than Samsung and Apple in 2Q24.
  • We believe electrical vehicle will bring significant gross profit in following two years.

TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

By William Keating

  • TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the “traditional” foundry market
  • The lion’s share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)
  • Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it’s the polar opposite of Intel’s IDM 2.0 

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC’s ‘Foundry 2.0’ Is Significant

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Tech Stocks Rally, But Lag Nvidia’s Massive Rally; Prepare for Nvidia, Dell, HP Results Next Week
  • Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound 
  • TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering? Why It Is Significant

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Aug-2024): SE Asia & India semi supply chains deployment

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • SE Asia & India deploying semi supply chains for efficiency & cost reduction, with focus shifting to automotive & mobile ventures.
  • Taiwan leveraging strong semiconductor industry to attract foreign students & enhance industry leadership.
  • Wiwynn suing Musk’s X over unpaid server bills, UK reassessing semiconductor strategy amid US & China influence. Apple’s Foxconn to manufacture iPhone Pro in India, AMD entering AI market with $4.9 billion investment. TSMC building EUR10B fab in Dresden to boost semiconductor industry.

Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai’s Latest Key Take Aways — No Slowdown for AI Server or Mobile Demand Indicated
  • Zhen Ding — Delivers Higher Than Expected 2Q24 Growth; No Indication of AI Server or Mobile Slowdown
  • Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Have Lagged Nvidia’s Massive Rebound Since August 9th

IonQ Inc.: Acceleration of Quantum Computing Milestones Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IonQ’s second quarter financial and operational performance for 2024 reveals a mix of significant technological advancements and robust commercial progress, underscoring both opportunities and challenges as the company advances in the quantum computing sector.
  • Starting with the financial metrics, IonQ reported a revenue of $11.4 million, surpassing the upper range of its guidance.
  • This indicates effective contract execution and perhaps a growing demand for their quantum computing solutions.

The Trade Desk Inc.: A Story Of Expanded Connected TV (CTV) Partnerships & Retail Media Network Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Trade Desk reported a robust performance for the second quarter of 2024, with notable year-over-year revenue growth of 26%, totaling $585 million.
  • This growth considerably surpasses the growth rates experienced by peer companies within the digital marketing sector, emphasizing The Trade Desk’s consistent ability to capture increased market share.
  • This trend is particularly highlighted in areas like Connected TV (CTV), which continues to be a strong driver of the company’s expansion.

AMS Osram – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess AMS Osram’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The Environmental score is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


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Daily Brief Industrials: Alps Logistics, Ecom Express Limited, ZTO Express Cayman , Shanghai International Airport, Singapore Post, SharkNinja , Parker Hannifin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple
  • Ecom Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID
  • Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH | BUY | TP:CNY44): Slow but Steady Earnings Recovery
  • Singapore Post – Q1 profits more than double
  • SharkNinja Inc.: These Are The 5 Pivotal Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: An Evolving Market Vertical Coverage Driving Growth! – Major Drivers


Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • The Logisteed/KKR entity received its approvals between the last week of July and this past week, and told Alps Logistics (9055 JP) it wanted to launch its tender 22 August.
  • It will do so. Approvals were reasonably quick (as expected) and the Special Committee and Board decided nothing material had changed. No reason to change their opinion.
  • This is still a HUGE price. And everyone will be out by mid-October if they want. This is an easy deal. And a GIGANTIC win for minorities.

Ecom Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Ecom Express Limited (1062300D IN) is looking to raise about US$310m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, IIFL Securities, Kotak and UBS.
  • Ecom Express operates a pan-India express logistics network covering first-mile pick-up, mid-mile transportation and last-mile delivery as well as reverse logistics (returns) and fulfilment services (warehousing).
  • According to Redseer, the company had the widest pan-India coverage and in Tier 2+ regions compared to its peers, covering over 27,000 PIN codes, as of March 31, 2024.

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
  • But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
  • ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH | BUY | TP:CNY44): Slow but Steady Earnings Recovery

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Chinese airports are enjoying a steady passenger traffic growth of 5% YTD; Shenzhen and Shanghai airports are growing much faster.  
  • Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)is our top pick given its size, liquidity, strong balance sheet, and its strong earnings growth potential.  
  • Our target price for Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) is CNY44, pegged to global airport peer average FY25 EV/EBITDA of 12x.   

Singapore Post – Q1 profits more than double

By Edison Investment Research

The Q125 results shine a light on the latest initiatives to underpin the inherent value within Singapore Post, which include a review of the Australian operations and ongoing discussions with the Singapore government on postal services. SingPost’s transformation from a post and parcel delivery company into a global logistics operator appears to have slipped under the radar of investors and now offers an opportunity for investors to reassess its potential. Our forecasts and valuation are unchanged and we believe there is now c 60% upside in the share price.


SharkNinja Inc.: These Are The 5 Pivotal Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • SharkNinja reported its second quarter 2024 earnings with a remarkably robust performance, significantly accelerating its financial growth and expanding its market presence.
  • The company achieved a 38% increase in adjusted net sales and a substantial 48% rise in adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong organic growth.
  • Adjusted earnings per share also soared by 51%, reflecting a successful operational strategy focused on innovation and market expansion.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: An Evolving Market Vertical Coverage Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation delivered a robust performance in fiscal 2024, continually strengthening through strategic portfolio transformation and a particularly standout year for the Aerospace Systems segment.
  • Although the company saw low single-digit sales growth overall, it succeeded in expanding margins significantly by 200 basis points in its Aerospace sector.
  • This was highlighted by an 18% increase in earnings per share, a notable achievement following a 15% earnings growth in the previous fiscal year, and generating a record free cash flow of $3 billion.

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Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com , Webjet Ltd, LG Electronics, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, S.M.Entertainment Co, Expedia Group, Inc., China East Education , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Dexelance and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
  • Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger
  • LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index
  • 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bear Case
  • 99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation
  • SM Entertainment: Disposal of Non Core Assets – SM C&C and KeyEast
  • Expedia Group Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • China East Education (667 HK): Rock Solid Improvements
  • Cash on Hand Has Built up to a Level Where Small Shareholder Returns Are No Longer Sufficient
  • Dexelance: An Emerging Serial Acquirer of Luxury Brands


JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
  • There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
  • There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU)  announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger. 
  • If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
  • A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.  

LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Electronics aims for 7% growth, a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple, and a ₩1,000 DPS with a 25% payout ratio, likely disclosing details by late October or early November.
  • LG Electronics’ value-up disclosure highlights major non-financial companies’ participation before the value-up index launch, driven by regulatory pressure and concerns about index inclusion.
  • Samsung and Hyundai are likely to disclose value-up plans by early September, prompting an upward revision of flow size predictions for the value-up index launch.

99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK), a leading grocery retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.
  • In 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on lacklustre outlet KPIs, indications of margin pressure, significant pre-IPO dividends and a significant secondary offering.

99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise US$530m in its Malaysia IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

SM Entertainment: Disposal of Non Core Assets – SM C&C and KeyEast

By Douglas Kim

  • On 21 August, SM Entertainment announced that it will sell its non-core assets including its controlling stakes in SK C&C and KeyEast.
  • The combined sales amount could be about 110 billion won or more, representing 7% or more of SM Entertainment’s market cap. 
  • Sale of SM C&C and KeyEast is likely to have a positive impact on SM Entertainment by selling its non-core assets and improving its balance sheet for higher shareholder returns.

Expedia Group Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group, in its second-quarter 2024 earnings, exhibited a dual-faced performance characterized by significant achievements and emerging challenges that mirror the broader complexities of the travel industry.
  • The management has focused on revitalizing core brands, particular emphasis on enhancing execution within the company’s consumer segment, and fine-tuning their long-term strategic direction.
  • Under her leadership, Expedia Group has seen a robust growth in room nights and gross bookings indicating a strong recovery trajectory from previous downturns.

China East Education (667 HK): Rock Solid Improvements

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China East Education (667 HK)‘s 1H24 result is impressive with a 58% YoY increase in adjusted net profit. Good cost control is a key contributing factor. 
  • Profitability has improved in all business segments. Its strategy to focus on higher-value courses has led to further improvement in annualised tuition per student. 
  • The 1H24 result equals 68% of the full-year consensus, implying an upside in market expectations. Its net cash, at 35% of market capitalisation, is unmatched by peers.

Cash on Hand Has Built up to a Level Where Small Shareholder Returns Are No Longer Sufficient

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The increase in net profit from the previous year outpaced the growth in dividends, which increased cash on hand for listed companies to a record high level. 
  • Since the equity ratio of manufacturing sector is over 40% and there’s little room for debt repayment, there’s room for a considerable increase in dividends in conjunction with share repurchases.
  • If free cash flow isn’t used to invest in growth and return profits to shareholders, rather than to pay small dividends to shareholders, cash on hand will continue to increase.

Dexelance: An Emerging Serial Acquirer of Luxury Brands

By Contrarian Cashflows

I recently spoke with Bogumil Baranowski, a fellow value investor and friend of mine, who shared his approach to finding attractive investments in industries facing temporary challenges but benefiting from long-term positive trends.

The luxury goods industry exemplifies this strategy. While short-term concerns such as potentially weakening consumer demand due to recessionary fears exist, these are outweighed by the long-term rise in global income and wealth levels.

Dexelance, the company I am discussing today, is currently attractively priced and stands to benefit from the enduring growth of the luxury goods sector.


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Daily Brief Financials: Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt, Information Services, Bajaj Housing Finance, Nuam Exchange and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Q2 FY12/24 Results Update
  • Information Services Corporation – Cash flow fuelling ambitious growth plan
  • Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Bigger and Faster
  • Nuam Exchange (NUAM CI, NUAMCO CB, NUAM ) – Wednesday, May 22, 2024


Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Q2 FY12/24 Results Update

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY12/24 results demonstrated sustained double-digit earnings growth, driven by the Wealth Consulting business through customer acquisition and the rising number of concluded contracts.
  • The Real Estate Solutions business has further raised assets under management and despite the increasing challenges in finding suitable assets, there were five transactions conducted for the ADVANTAGE CLUB business.
  • Although the company has maintained FY12/24 guidance, we believe earnings momentum remains positive with the 1) increase in consultant numbers, 2) customer acquisitions, and 3) business investment in personnel as well as IT to boost productivity. We have left our earnings estimates unchanged.

Information Services Corporation – Cash flow fuelling ambitious growth plan

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation (ISC) has entered a new era of strategic growth, striving to double both revenue and adjusted EBITDA (on an FY23 basis) by 2028. Its Registry Operations will be a strong foundation to enable this growth, generating more than C$1.3bn in cash flow to 2053. Registry revenue was up 27.5% y-o-y in H124 due to a full year of fee uplifts combined with robust market activity in Saskatchewan. The Services segment continues to demonstrate strong organic growth, with revenues up 14% y-o-y. Continued organic growth in both the Services and Technology Solutions segment is essential for ISC to reach its 2028 targets. We value ISC at C$40/share (48% upside to the current price).


Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Bigger and Faster

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) is looking to raise around US$830m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Nuam Exchange (NUAM CI, NUAMCO CB, NUAM ) – Wednesday, May 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NUAM Exchange is a Chilean holding company formed from a merger of stock exchanges in Chile, Colombia, and Peru in October 2023
  • Shareholders of the previous exchanges received varying percentages of ownership in NUAM
  • The company is in the process of merging operations to create a single equity market, trading system, and team by the end of 2025; reported pro forma 2023 numbers of 129.9 million in revenues, 50.1 million in EBITDA, and 30.9 million in net profits.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Most Read: JD.com , Hang Seng Index, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guzman Y Gomez, Webjet Ltd, Techwing Inc, Eoflow, Alps Logistics, LG Electronics, DB Hitek Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands
  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
  • Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger
  • FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October
  • Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]
  • Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple
  • LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index
  • Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek


JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
  • There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
  • There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

By Brian Freitas

  • In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
  • We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
  • The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM’s profits or prospects.
  • If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
  • Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
  • Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU)  announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger. 
  • If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
  • A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.  

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October

By Brian Freitas


Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 21 August, Eoflow (294090 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 9.1 million new shares, representing share dilution of 23%.
  • Based on the expected rights offering issue price of 9,040 won, the company is expected to raise 82.2 billion won in this capital raise. 
  • Eoflow has monthly cash burn rate of about 3.3 billion won. If the rights offering is successful, it would have adequate capital resources for about a couple of years. 

Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • The Logisteed/KKR entity received its approvals between the last week of July and this past week, and told Alps Logistics (9055 JP) it wanted to launch its tender 22 August.
  • It will do so. Approvals were reasonably quick (as expected) and the Special Committee and Board decided nothing material had changed. No reason to change their opinion.
  • This is still a HUGE price. And everyone will be out by mid-October if they want. This is an easy deal. And a GIGANTIC win for minorities.

LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Electronics aims for 7% growth, a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple, and a ₩1,000 DPS with a 25% payout ratio, likely disclosing details by late October or early November.
  • LG Electronics’ value-up disclosure highlights major non-financial companies’ participation before the value-up index launch, driven by regulatory pressure and concerns about index inclusion.
  • Samsung and Hyundai are likely to disclose value-up plans by early September, prompting an upward revision of flow size predictions for the value-up index launch.

Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

By Sanghyun Park

  • From early June until yesterday, local pension funds have purchased nearly 4% of DB HiTek’s SO. This places DB HiTek in a dominant first position in their net buying list.
  • The timing of local pension funds beginning to buy DB HiTek coincidentally aligns with May 22, when DB Inc was requested by the KFTC to transition into a holding company.
  • Focus on potential price impact from DB Inc.’s buying and value-up index inflows. Considering a relative overweight in DB HiTek may be strategic despite some risk.

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Daily Brief Australia: Guzman Y Gomez, APM Human Services, Westgold Resources, Regis Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date
  • Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?


Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
  • Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
  • Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

By Arun George

  • The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. 
  • The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
  • While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.

APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 31st May, employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
  • That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed. A scrip option was afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option, if the Scheme is implemented. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th September. Expected implementation on the 10 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
  • Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.

Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?

By Money of Mine

  • Regis’s McFilamy’s gold project faced setback due to cultural significance of land
  • Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s declaration halted project activities
  • Project had already been approved under state and federal legislation, causing surprise and confusion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS).

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Daily Brief Credit: West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Yankuang Energy Group


West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

West China Cement (WCC) has released softer than expected H1/24 numbers. The company’s revenue and profitability in Mainland China continued to decline amid the real estate slump, while its performance in Africa was mixed. ​FCF remained negative and leverage continued to deteriorate. That said, liquidity appears manageable, as we expect WCC to refinance its short-term loans. The main debt maturity wall is in July 2026, when the USD 600 mn notes will come due.

In our view, the key risk is uncertainty over the extent of WCC’s overseas expansion. The company stated that it has no plans for capacity expansion in FY 2024, other than the ongoing developments in Ethiopia and Uzbekistan. However, this contradicts media reports on WCC’s investments in Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Hence, we are unsure about the level of the company’s planned overseas capex. Going forward, cement demand in Mainland China is likely to remain weak, due to the slowdown in infrastructure investment (with lower growth) and continued decline in real estate investment.


Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?
  • Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Snapped
  • Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido
  • How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)


A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

By Jacob Cheng

  • Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday
  • In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE
  • We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Snapped

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks declined on Tuesday, snapping an eight-day winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
  • Hitachi acquired U.S.-based Castle Hill Technologies to expand its digital transformation (DX) support in production, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector
  • Oasis Management, an activist investment fund, disclosed a 3.96% stake in Mercari, making it the company’s sixth-largest shareholder.

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

By Andrew Jackson

  • TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
  • Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
  • Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.

How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?

By Ying Pan

  • With consumption in the doldrums, one would expect none growing at double digits. This is actually not the case; 
  • Further, how many Chinese Growth Equity names are accelerating in growth in the second half? Quite a lot;
  • We reiterate our view that Chinese Internet names are took-all winners with strong pricing power, which are showing when they need to. The weak market sentiment is self-fulfilling.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: <Black Myth: WuKong> Tops Steam’s Most Played Games Now with Over 1.2 million Concurrent Players (+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Rock Kingdom: World> Begins Beta Testing Today: iOS Only, Android/PC Versions Not Yet Available (+)
  • 700 HK: <Honor of Kings> Matchmaking Algorithm to Be Overhauled (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY US: The drink “Tengyun American” coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and “Black Myth: Wukong” game was sold out in its first day (/)
  • 1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)
  • Consumer Industry update:China’s Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 3.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.4%).
  • Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.2% of the index) was up 2.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.1% of index) was up 2.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: ZEV, ORGN, GIGA, GTEC, PSIX, GEVO, GCEI, COMM, ASPN, FF

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