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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Bitcoin, HDFC Bank, Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, Industrivarden AB, Bitcoin Pro, Ohmyhome , Silver Spike Investment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction
  • Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip
  • Hdfc Bank Ltd (HDB) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024
  • Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount
  • Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount
  • A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?
  • OMH: Strong 1H 2024 Metrics Support Company Revenue Growth Guidance
  • Silver Spike Investment Corp (SSIC) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024


Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today’s press release unveils details on new flow trading events in Korea’s local market from the second half of this year, highlighting two key points.
  • Firstly, the disclosure rule starts with block deals from August 23rd. Secondly, a 30% or greater stock price correction on disclosure day may cancel the transaction plan.
  • This highlights the need to consider cancellation risks in pre-disclosure positions and design setups with consideration for the potential for reverse flows as stock prices approach 30% corrections.

Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Before we dive into this Monday’s edition of Crypto Crisp, we want to announce a format change.
  • Starting today, the ‘Charting Crypto’ section will only feature the most intriguing charts we have discovered over the past week.
  • Instead of showcasing four to five recurring charts that may not always be interesting, we will focus solely on the most noteworthy ones.

Hdfc Bank Ltd (HDB) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • HDFC Bank is the largest private sector bank in India known for its strong track record of compounding book value and EPS
  • The recent merger with Housing Development Finance Company initially received positive market reaction but has since caused a decline in HDFC Bank’s stock price
  • Despite the stock underperformance, the merger offers potential cross-selling opportunities and a bright future for HDFC Bank

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Secondary placement taking place, ~29million share on offer via accelerated bookbuild, for total offer size of ~USD100 million 
  • Discount of 0-2.4% relative to market close 9 July, discount depends on demand
  • Free float will increase by 0.5% to 8.4%, which is low but typical for Vietnamese government linked (GLC) stocks 

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).
  • Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
  • My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).

A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC hits multi-month range lows amid heavy liquidations and bearish market structure.
  • Altcoins experience significant losses, with many sectors down 20%-50% in recent weeks.
  • ETH and SOL spot ETFs signal growing institutional interest despite current market struggles.

OMH: Strong 1H 2024 Metrics Support Company Revenue Growth Guidance

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • OMH expects 1H24 revenue increased >110% y/y.
  • OMH views its technology & data as competitive advantages & cites recently launched HomerAI & Property Mgmt.
  • unit as key factors behind expected growth.

Silver Spike Investment Corp (SSIC) – Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SSIC stock recommended by Dakota at $8.85, now up by $1.00 with $1.58 cash distributions
  • Recent corporate transaction with REFI expected to benefit SSIC stockholders
  • SSIC is a BDC founded by Wall Street veterans, with strong balance sheet, no debt, and management owning significant portion of shares

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Aisin , Ryohin Keikaku, Hyundai Motor India , Hong Kong Television Network, Mercari , Tesla , Carmax Inc, elf Beauty Inc, Lands’ End Inc, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes
  • India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?
  • HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod
  • Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts
  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys
  • CarMax Inc.: Operational Efficiencies In Reconditioning & Logistics Expanding The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers
  • elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT
  • LE: 2H Signposts; Proving Model Shifts Working; Reiterate Buy, $17 PT
  • BBW: Snapping the Store – Milan Edition – Looking at Expansion, Reiterate Buy


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
  • It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
  • Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
  • Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.

India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) saw a market share loss in India Passenger Vehicles sales reported for June 2024 and 1QFY2025, impacted by intensified competition in the SUV segment.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra, and Toyota Kirloskar India gained market share in 1QFY2025 led by upgraded model launches in the SUV segment, traditionally a strong category for HMIL.
  • HMIL’s declining market share, if not reversed soon, could challenge optimistic growth projections and valuation multiples for its upcoming IPO.

HKTV (1137 HK)’s Low-Balled Buyback Gets The Nod

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in May, online shopping platform play Hong Kong Television Network (1137 HK) announced a buy-back of 11.25% of shares out, at $2.15/share, a mediocre 20.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the Offer was to lift co-founder Ricky Wong’s stake to 51.55% from 45.75%.  But that required independent shareholders approving a whitewash waiver not to make a MGO.
  • I didn’t expect shareholder pushback. And there wasn’t. Tendering closes on the 23rd July. Keep an eye on CCASS movements. Shares gained 4.7% yesterday prior to the EGM outcome. Mmm.

Mercari (4385) | Fintech and Gig Economy as Key Catalysts

By Mark Chadwick

  • Mercari’s US operations, responsible for major losses, saw a workforce reduction by 45%, potentially preceding a market exit to improve overall margins.
  • Fintech growth is strong, with Mercari issuing over 3 million credit cards, achieving a 67% YoY credit balance increase, despite current operational losses
  • Mercari Hallo, an on-demand work platform, has rapidly gained users and business partners, positioning it to capitalize on Japan’s growing gig economy.

Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

CarMax Inc.: Operational Efficiencies In Reconditioning & Logistics Expanding The Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CarMax has reported its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, revealing a mixed financial scenario.
  • This analysis aims to objectively evaluate the performance by weighing the key positives and negatives reflected in the data and future company outlook.
  • Starting with the positives, CarMax noted several encouraging business trends, such as a stabilization in vehicle values and a decrease in average vehicle selling prices, which fell by approximately $700 per unit.

elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating.
  • $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond.
  • We believe 2024, while somewhat frustrating from an investor standpoint (given the downward revenue guidance and pulling of EBITDA guidance after 1Q), will be seen as a positive over the longer term, as the company has made material steps forward for all of their brands, positioning Starco for significant top line growth and going forward, material operating leverage, which we believe will become increasingly self-evident in 2025 and beyond.

LE: 2H Signposts; Proving Model Shifts Working; Reiterate Buy, $17 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $17 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look at key trends for 2HFY24 and beyond.
  • We believe management’s focus on reducing discounting, material product newness and excitement, telling product “stories” focused on key differentiating features, and shifting the product mix to higher levels of licensing, has been a hit, and we believe FY24 will continue to demonstrate there remain material upgrades still to come, with the potential for further top andbottom line upside.
  • Further, with international top line growth nearing, digital marketplaces remaining a plus and the full positive margin impact of licensing still on tap, we believe there remain further catalysts going forward.

BBW: Snapping the Store – Milan Edition – Looking at Expansion, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections after visiting franchised stores in Milan, Italy.
  • With the company ramping up penetration with commercial partners and international franchisees, we believe it will be increasingly important for investors to understand and appreciate what we believe are the impressive economics of the franchised Build-A-Bear business.
  • Our Milan visits reiterated both the ability to recreate the experiential aspect of the Build-A-Bear operating model with partners and what we believe can be the lucrative nature of the business.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb, Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 5th): Hlb, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jul 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Hlb (028300 KS), Posco (005490 KS).

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Daily Brief ESG: Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management
  • Ontex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Faster Management Improvement Requires a Sense of Tension in Management

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Now that the defensive wall of cross-shareholdings has been lowered, the strategies of activist investors are beginning to work, as companies are forced to listen to demands of their shareholders.
  • Many companies continued to be reappointed at shareholder meetings without fulfilling the role of management in maximizing shareholder interests and carrying out sustainable expansion.
  • For faster management improvement, further increasing the sense of tension in management requires the elimination of further cross-shareholdings and a change in the mindset of domestic investors, including individual investors.

Ontex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Ontex’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social pillar is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys


Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , PT Pertamina (Persero), Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Emcure Pharma Pre-IPO Trading – Strong Subscription, Will Pop
  • India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?
  • Sanil Electric IPO – Stars Aligned with High Growth and Strong Sentiment
  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects
  • Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount
  • Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games


KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
  • The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
  • It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks. 

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
  • As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

Emcure Pharma Pre-IPO Trading – Strong Subscription, Will Pop

By Sumeet Singh

  • Emcure Pharmaceuticals raised around US$240m in its India IPO. Subscription rates were strong.
  • Emcure Pharmaceuticals (EP) is an Indian Pharmaceutical company engaged in the developing, manufacturing and globally marketing a broad range of pharmaceutical products across several major therapeutic areas.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

India Car Sales Slow: Can Hyundai Keep Its No. 2 Spot Amidst Fierce Competition?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) saw a market share loss in India Passenger Vehicles sales reported for June 2024 and 1QFY2025, impacted by intensified competition in the SUV segment.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra, and Toyota Kirloskar India gained market share in 1QFY2025 led by upgraded model launches in the SUV segment, traditionally a strong category for HMIL.
  • HMIL’s declining market share, if not reversed soon, could challenge optimistic growth projections and valuation multiples for its upcoming IPO.

Sanil Electric IPO – Stars Aligned with High Growth and Strong Sentiment

By Ethan Aw

  • Sanil Electric (062040 KS) is looking to raise up to US$165m in its Korean IPO.
  • Sanil Electric is a specialized company that manufactures and sells reactors, transformers, railway vehicle parts, and switchboards. As an industrial transformer manufacturer, the company mainly manufactures power and distribution transformers.
  • In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: What’s The IPO Valuation? Long-Term Growth Prospects

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology (Dobot), a Shenzhen-based cobot company with a diversified customer base globally, filed publicly for Hong Kong IPO.
  • The terms of the IPO were not disclosed. The robotics company plans to increase production capacity due to high demand in the coming years.
  • Dobot may be trading above the last round valuation of ~RMB3.5b, but I believe investors should focus on the company’s long-term growth prospects and rapidly growing TAM.

Vietcombank (VCB VN Equity): Secondary Placement Offer, up to 2.4% Discount

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Secondary placement taking place, ~29million share on offer via accelerated bookbuild, for total offer size of ~USD100 million 
  • Discount of 0-2.4% relative to market close 9 July, discount depends on demand
  • Free float will increase by 0.5% to 8.4%, which is low but typical for Vietnamese government linked (GLC) stocks 

Shift Up IPO Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.
  • Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip
  • A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?


Crypto Crisp: Buy the Dip

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Before we dive into this Monday’s edition of Crypto Crisp, we want to announce a format change.
  • Starting today, the ‘Charting Crypto’ section will only feature the most intriguing charts we have discovered over the past week.
  • Instead of showcasing four to five recurring charts that may not always be interesting, we will focus solely on the most noteworthy ones.

A Bad Break For Bulls… What’s Next?

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC hits multi-month range lows amid heavy liquidations and bearish market structure.
  • Altcoins experience significant losses, with many sectors down 20%-50% in recent weeks.
  • ETH and SOL spot ETFs signal growing institutional interest despite current market struggles.

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Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Aisin , Recruit Holdings, Hanwha Corporation, Asia Cement China, Ryohin Keikaku, Kelun Biotech, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up – KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait
  • KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?
  • Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc
  • Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash
  • StubWorld: Hanwha Corp’s Steep Discount & Tender Offer
  • Asia Cement China (743.HK) – Investors Are Facing the Dilemma of Low-Priced Privatization
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes
  • Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction


Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up – KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

KKR To Sell a 20-22% Stake in Kokusai Electric (6525)?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, a Reuters article came out saying that KKR would sell down half its 43% stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) according to “two people familiar with the matter.”
  • The article also said Kokusai Electric would buy back shares. Kokusai responded with a TDNET release saying “we did not release this info but we are considering various capital policies.
  • It pays to look at the Shareholder Structure as it stands. This is bigger than it looks. 

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer – Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
  • It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
  • Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.

Recruit (6098 JP) – BIG Headline Buyback But Disappointing if That Is Best Use Of Cash

By Travis Lundy

  • Last December, Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a ¥200bn buyback which sounded big but with lots of cross-holders, wasn’t huge. The stock is up 80% in 6+ months since.
  • Today, the company announced a new buyback of ¥600bn. This is very aggressive, and at 25x EBITDA and 40x PER, is probably due to demand to sell. 
  • Crossholders now hold ¥2trln which is three-plus times this buyback. And if the price were to rise 10% a year for 3yrs, it would be four times.

StubWorld: Hanwha Corp’s Steep Discount & Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • With Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) trading around a one-year low NAV discount, the Hanwha Group has made a Tender Offer for 8% of shares outstanding at ₩30,000/share.
  • Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Asia Cement China (743.HK) – Investors Are Facing the Dilemma of Low-Priced Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Many minority shareholders have lodged complaints against ACC with the SFC, since unfair privatization price damages the ecology of the entire market.It depends on whether the SFC will take action.
  • The failure of privatization does not necessarily mean better returns for investors. On the contrary, it may result in greater losses. ACC can have other ways “hollow out” the Company.
  • Arbitrageurs can choose to bet on a second privatization (with higher Offer Price) and also on the potential dividends, but the prerequisite is that the management choose to “act honorably”.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
  • Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.

Kelun-Biotech IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Strong Performance Leaves Pre-IPO Investors with Large Gains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kelun Biotech (KB) raised around US$170m in its IPO in July 2023, the lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders is set to expire soon.
  • KB is a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company. It has accumulated more than ten years of experience in antibody drug conjugates (ADC) development.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that KKR & Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
  • As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

Details of Block Deal Pre-Disclosure Rule Disclosed: Cancellation Risk from 30% Price Correction

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today’s press release unveils details on new flow trading events in Korea’s local market from the second half of this year, highlighting two key points.
  • Firstly, the disclosure rule starts with block deals from August 23rd. Secondly, a 30% or greater stock price correction on disclosure day may cancel the transaction plan.
  • This highlights the need to consider cancellation risks in pre-disclosure positions and design setups with consideration for the potential for reverse flows as stock prices approach 30% corrections.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains
  • Sebi Crackdown on India’s F&O Market, Weekly Expiries Etc.
  • #27 India Insight: Adani to Launch Shipbuilding, Xiaomi Plans to Double Shipment, Hyundai IPO
  • China Online Marketplaces: It Was a Bumpy Journey but the Worst Is Behind Us
  • Autonomous Driving Leadership Landscape
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/9992 HK/1810 HK/1519 HK/ZTO US/SE US/ATAT US/981 HK/000977 CH


Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 gained 4.13 points (0.1%) to close at a record 5,576, marking its 36th record close in 2024
  • Recruit Holdings will buy back up to 600 billion yen, its largest ever
  • Oriental Land, operator of Tokyo Disney Resort, announced plans to enter the cruise business with a project costing about 330 billion yen, set to launch in FY2028.

Sebi Crackdown on India’s F&O Market, Weekly Expiries Etc.

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI plans to increase F&O contract sizes, limit weekly options, and introduce stricter trading measures.
  • Aimed at protecting small investors from risks, these changes may reduce retail participation in derivatives trading.
  • SEBI’s initiative emphasizes investor protection, potentially stabilizing the market by reducing speculative trading.

#27 India Insight: Adani to Launch Shipbuilding, Xiaomi Plans to Double Shipment, Hyundai IPO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Gautam Adani to Launch Shipbuilding at Mundra Port Amid Global Demand Surge
  • Hyundai Faces Pressure from Tata and Mahindra Ahead of $3.5 Billion India IPO
  • Xiaomi plans to double shipments in India, targeting 700 million devices within a decade

China Online Marketplaces: It Was a Bumpy Journey but the Worst Is Behind Us

By Eric Chen

  • While we were expecting slow but steady growth for China online marketplaces early in 2023, we did underestimate the enduring impact of China property slump on their recovery.
  • Sluggish macro environment has come above other factors in driving share performance of China e-commerce stocks, but we see the worst behind us, setting stage for the sector’s up cycle.
  • We believe sector valuation will gradually normalize going into 2H24/1H25 due to a combination of continuous improvements in fundamental and risk appetites for China assets.

Autonomous Driving Leadership Landscape

By Pyari Menon

  • For this report we datamined autonomous driving technology (ADT) innovations.
  • Worldwide over the last decade the ADT sector has seen nearly 25% CAGR growth in patent filings, with over 40,000 patent family filings.
  • Aptiv PLC (APTV US), with a leadership position in several areas of ADT, strong financials, reasonable valuations and strategic partnerships stands out.  

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/700 HK/JD US/BABA US/PDD US/1519HK/ZTOUS/NTESUS/BILIUS

By Ying Pan

  • 3690 HK:Kuaigou Dache (ride hailing) Lowers Commission Rate for Drivers in Tianjin to 10% (-)
  • TCOM US:Ctrip Introduces Family Card, Allowing Users to Book Trips for Their Elderly Parents (+)
  • 700 HK: <Honor of Kings> to Launch Ranked System Optimization: Points for Wins and Losses (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/9992 HK/1810 HK/1519 HK/ZTO US/SE US/ATAT US/981 HK/000977 CH

By Eric Wen

  • 300750 SZ: CATL launches new commercial battery brand Tianxing to accelerate truck electrification and defend market share.(/)
  • 9992 HK: Pop Mart’s first LABUBU theme store opens in Bangkok with over RMB10 million in sales on the first day(+)
  • 1810 HK : Huawei to launch three-hinge/ fold smartphone. (/)

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