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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Bell Financial, HSBC Holdings, Moody’s Corp, Japan Exchange Group, Senior Connect Acquisition Cor, Simmons First National, Apple Hospitality Reit, Zip , Independent Bank Corp/Ma, Peoples Bancorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – ECM and brokerage conditions remain strong
  • HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights
  • Moody’s Corporation: An Insight Into The Moody’s Analytics Expansion and Recurring Revenue Diversification!
  • From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)
  • Primer: Senior Connect Acquisition Cor (SNRH US) – Oct 2025
  • Primer: Simmons First National (SFNC US) – Oct 2025
  • Primer: Apple Hospitality Reit (APLE US) – Oct 2025
  • Zip Conquering The US
  • Primer: Independent Bank Corp/Ma (INDB US) – Oct 2025
  • Primer: Peoples Bancorp (PEBO US) – Oct 2025


Bell Financial Group Ltd – ECM and brokerage conditions remain strong

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • The latest ASX ECM data suggests raisings in the September quarter were 8% above the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 45% above the June 2025 quarter.
  • In terms of market share, the latest Dealogic data suggests Bell Potter has held share relative to the pcp, while raising US$0.75b (A$1.2b) against US$0.63b (A$1.0b) year to date October 2025 (+20%).

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.
  • Timing & Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.
  • Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC’s announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.

Moody’s Corporation: An Insight Into The Moody’s Analytics Expansion and Recurring Revenue Diversification!

By Baptista Research

  • Moody’s Corporation reported a strong financial performance in its third-quarter results for 2025, achieving a record revenue of over $2 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year.
  • The corporation has also raised full-year guidance across nearly all metrics, demonstrating considerable growth and operational leverage.
  • The adjusted operating margin stood at 53%, a 500-basis point improvement from the previous year, and adjusted diluted EPS increased by 22% to $3.92, highlighting robust earnings power.

From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)

By Rikki Malik

  • A stock that should benefit from the resumption of Japan’s bull market
  • Utility type stock poised to rerate  as a growth narrative starts
  • The stock has recently broken out of its 18 month downtrend

Primer: Senior Connect Acquisition Cor (SNRH US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Senior Connect Acquisition Corp. I was a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) that raised $414 million in its December 2020 IPO to target businesses serving the senior market.
  • The company was led by a seasoned management team, including Richard Burke, the founder and former CEO of UnitedHealth Group, which was a key potential advantage in sourcing and evaluating targets.
  • After evaluating hundreds of potential acquisition opportunities, the company failed to consummate a business combination and announced its intention to dissolve and liquidate in June 2023, returning capital to its public shareholders.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Simmons First National (SFNC US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Simmons First National is a Mid-South based financial holding company navigating a complex interest rate environment. The bank’s performance is closely tied to net interest margin trends, loan growth, and credit quality within its operating regions.
  • Recent financial performance shows revenue growth but a decline in net income, reflecting margin pressures common across the regional banking sector. The company has maintained a consistent dividend, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
  • Forward-looking success will depend on the execution of its strategic initiatives, including managing operating expenses, navigating potential credit headwinds, and capitalizing on growth opportunities in its core markets of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: Apple Hospitality Reit (APLE US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Apple Hospitality REIT owns one of the largest and most geographically diverse portfolios of upscale, select-service hotels in the United States, concentrated with industry-leading brands like Hilton and Marriott.
  • The company’s business model is focused on generating stable income and shareholder returns through a consistent monthly dividend, supported by a strong balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that includes consistent reinvestment in its properties.
  • While facing risks tied to economic cycles and intense competition, APLE is well-positioned to capitalize on the continued recovery in leisure and business travel, with a strategic focus on high-quality assets in attractive markets.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Zip Conquering The US

By FNArena

  • A better than expected quarter for BNPL provider Zip Co was driven by a rapidly growing US customer base in a still underpenetrated market.
  • Zip Co’s September quarter beats on US growth Earnings and margin exceed expectations Bad debts considered manageable US market remains underpenetrated

Primer: Independent Bank Corp/Ma (INDB US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Independent Bank Corp. (INDB), through its subsidiary Rockland Trust, has established a strong regional banking franchise in Eastern Massachusetts, demonstrating consistent revenue growth and a successful track record of strategic acquisitions, most recently Enterprise Bancorp in July 2025.
  • The company is currently navigating a challenging interest rate environment, which has led to significant net interest margin (NIM) compression and declining profitability over the past two years. However, recent quarterly results suggest a potential stabilization and improvement in NIM following its latest acquisition.
  • Forward-looking prospects hinge on the successful integration of acquired entities, the ability to manage funding costs effectively, and navigating potential credit quality shifts in a dynamic economic landscape. The valuation appears reasonable, trading below book value, which may present an opportunity if margin pressures abate.

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Primer: Peoples Bancorp (PEBO US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Acquisition-Driven Growth Strategy: Peoples Bancorp has a well-established history of growth through strategic acquisitions, successfully integrating acquired institutions to expand its market presence and diversify its revenue streams. This strategy has been a primary driver of its significant revenue and net income growth over the past several years.
  • Diversified Financial Services Model: The company operates a diversified financial services model, offering a comprehensive suite of products including traditional banking, wealth management, insurance, and equipment financing. This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and reduces reliance on any single line of business.
  • Solid Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: Peoples Bancorp has demonstrated a strong track record of revenue and net income growth, coupled with a consistent history of dividend payments. The company’s focus on profitability and shareholder returns is evident in its solid dividend yield and consistent dividend growth.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Amazon, Pegasystems Inc, Robot Payment Inc, Kinatico , Reddit , Badger Meter, EngageSmart LLC, SolarWinds and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS
  • Pegasystems: Application Modernization with AI & Cloud Services Are Upping The Ante!
  • Primer: Robot Payment Inc (4374 JP) – Oct 2025
  • Kinatico Ltd – Q1 SaaS revenue up 58% to $4.8m, now 53% of total
  • Reddit’s $465 Million Ad Boom Faces a Bot-Fueled Bust—But Can It Survive the AI Flood?
  • Badger Meter: An Insight Into Its BlueEdge, Smart Water Solutions & Other Major Drivers!
  • Primer: EngageSmart LLC (ESMT US) – Oct 2025
  • Primer: SolarWinds (SWI US) – Oct 2025


Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.
  • Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.
  • This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.

Pegasystems: Application Modernization with AI & Cloud Services Are Upping The Ante!

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems’ third-quarter financial results from 2025 highlight both strengths and challenges for the company.
  • The reported results underline Pegasystems’ ability to execute its cloud strategy and leverage artificial intelligence innovations, which have been key growth drivers.
  • The company’s focus on AI-driven process automation and orchestration platforms remains a cornerstone of its strategy, which is increasingly appealing to financial services and other regulated industries due to its approach of ensuring predictable workflows.

Primer: Robot Payment Inc (4374 JP) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Robot Payment is a high-growth fintech company capitalizing on Japan’s digital transformation, specializing in B2B payment automation and subscription management.
  • The company exhibits a robust and stable business model, with approximately 98% of its revenue being recurring, driven by its suite of SaaS-based solutions.
  • Financial performance is strong, marked by consistent double-digit revenue growth, expanding margins, and a significant turn to positive profitability and operating cash flow in recent years.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Kinatico Ltd – Q1 SaaS revenue up 58% to $4.8m, now 53% of total

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People” regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP announced at its 24 October AGM that its Q1 FY26 revenue had increased 14% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to a record $9.1m, with Subscription-as-a-Service (SaaS) revenue for the quarter increasing 58% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4.8m or 53% of total revenue.
  • EBITDA for the quarter increased 21% to $1.4m.

Reddit’s $465 Million Ad Boom Faces a Bot-Fueled Bust—But Can It Survive the AI Flood?

By Baptista Research

  • Reddit has surged in prominence over the past year, benefiting from two fast-growing monetization channels: AI licensing and advertising.
  • With daily active users (DAUs) up 21% year-over-year and advertising revenue soaring 84% to $465 million in Q2 2025, Reddit is experiencing its most profitable quarters ever.
  • Strategic licensing agreements with OpenAI and Google have brought highmargin revenues to the company, capitalizing on Reddit’s vast trove of authentic, human-generated content.

Badger Meter: An Insight Into Its BlueEdge, Smart Water Solutions & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Badger Meter reported a robust third quarter in 2025, displaying continued growth and a solid financial footing.
  • The company achieved a 13% year-over-year increase in total sales, reaching $236 million.
  • This growth was mainly driven by the utility water product line, which saw a 14% increase, driven by higher ultrasonic meter volumes, BEACON Software sales, and water quality product sales.

Primer: EngageSmart LLC (ESMT US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Privatization by Vista Equity Partners: In a significant strategic shift, EngageSmart was acquired by Vista Equity Partners for approximately $4.0 billion and taken private on January 26, 2024. This transaction fundamentally alters the investment landscape, as the company’s stock is no longer publicly traded. The partnership with a top-tier software investor like Vista is expected to accelerate growth and innovation.
  • Strong Position in Vertical SaaS: EngageSmart is a leading provider of vertically-tailored customer engagement software and integrated payment solutions. The company operates through two main segments, SMB Solutions and Enterprise Solutions, serving specific verticals like Health & Wellness, Government, Utilities, and Financial Services. This focused approach allows for deep industry integration and high customer retention.
  • Consistent Financial Outperformance: The company has demonstrated a robust track record of revenue growth and expanding profitability. For the third quarter of 2023, EngageSmart reported a 24% year-over-year increase in revenue to $97.7 million. This financial strength is driven by strong demand for its SaaS solutions, high digital adoption rates, and successful customer acquisition and expansion within its niche markets.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: SolarWinds (SWI US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Strategic Repositioning Towards Observability: SolarWinds is actively transitioning its business model to focus on subscription-based, integrated observability platforms. This strategic shift is aimed at capturing a larger share of the growing market for hybrid IT and cloud management, moving beyond its traditional on-premise monitoring tools.
  • Financial Recovery and Margin Improvement: The company has demonstrated a significant financial turnaround, swinging from a substantial net loss in 2022 to profitability in 2024. This recovery is underpinned by steady revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow generation, indicating operational stabilization post-restructuring efforts.
  • Overhang from SUNBURST Cyberattack: Despite operational improvements, SolarWinds continues to navigate the long-term reputational and legal ramifications of the 2020 SUNBURST cyberattack. A recent settlement with the SEC resolves a key uncertainty, but the event underscores the persistent risks associated with cybersecurity in the software supply chain and potential impact on customer trust.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, CMB, CCB, Xiaomi, HSBC
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 24th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Yageo, MediaTek
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 24th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Doosan Enerbility
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): TECO Electric & Machinery, Wistron, Unimicron Technology
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 24th): China Oilfield Services, Cgn Power, Anhui Expressway, Air China
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True
  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Bumi Armada, Perak Transit, Genting Malaysia
  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 24th): Alibaba, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Duality Biotherapeutics


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, CMB, CCB, Xiaomi, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 17th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Tencent, CMB, CCB, Xiaomi, HSBC.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 24th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Yageo, MediaTek

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 24th. The aggregated holding was USD1,379.0bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,005mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Yageo, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Yageo, TSMC, Wistron, Mediatek.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 24th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Doosan Enerbility

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 24th. The aggregated holding was USD811.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD630mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Doosan Enerbility, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): TECO Electric & Machinery, Wistron, Unimicron Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 24th. The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in TECO Electric & Machinery, Wistron, Unimicron Technology, LARGAN Precision, Yageo, TECO Electric & Machinery, Wistron, Unimicron Technology, LARGAN Precision, Yageo.

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 24th): China Oilfield Services, Cgn Power, Anhui Expressway, Air China

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 59.9% as of Oct 24th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -1.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, information technology, industrials and offset by energy, utilities.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Oilfield Services, Cgn Power, Anhui Expressway, Air China.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Oct 24th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.4bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development, PTT, Ptt, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Bumi Armada, Perak Transit, Genting Malaysia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Oct 24th. The aggregated short interest is USD424m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Bumi Armada, Perak Transit, Genting Malaysia, FARM FRESH, Top Glove.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 24th): Alibaba, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Duality Biotherapeutics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 24th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Alibaba, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Duality Biotherapeutics, China Mobile, Meituan, SMIC, Laopu Gold.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Innovent Biologics Inc, Lonza Group , Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, Rain Oncology , Chugai Pharmaceutical, WuXi AppTec, IGM Biosciences Inc, Puma Biotechnology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.26) – Turning Point of Medical Device, Innovent-Takeda Deal Makes Sense
  • Lonza’s Global Investments Signal a New Era in Pharma Production—But Can It Deliver?
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Primer: Rain Oncology (RAIN US) – Oct 2025
  • Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Steady, Actemra Shine, Outlicensed Drug and New Launches Key
  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK): Continued Strong Momentum in 3Q Leads to Consecutive FY Guidance Raise
  • Primer: IGM Biosciences Inc (IGMS US) – Oct 2025
  • Primer: Puma Biotechnology (PBYI US) – Oct 2025


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.26) – Turning Point of Medical Device, Innovent-Takeda Deal Makes Sense

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Whether it is big pharmaceutical company or Biopharma that currently generates revenue/profits mainly through one or two products, they may not be able to “defend” successfully in long term.
  • The logic for innovative medical device is similar to innovative drugs – It takes 1-2 years from the turning point of policies to the turning point of fundamentals.
  • The Innovent-Takeda deal is logical. However, stock price performance of Innovent was disappointing, which is due to the “turning point” of HK biotech sector.The current decline is far from over.

Lonza’s Global Investments Signal a New Era in Pharma Production—But Can It Deliver?

By Baptista Research

  • Lonza Group AG provided a qualitative update for its Q3 2025 performance, emphasizing a strong outcome in its Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) business and confirming its outlook for the remainder of the year.
  • Positively, the company anticipates sales growth of 20% to 21% at constant exchange rates (CER) and an improved core EBITDA margin between 30% and 31% for the full year.
  • The performance in Integrated Biologics contributed significantly, supported by robust demand for its large-scale mammalian assets, including its site in Vacaville, which is over-performing its targets.

Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chairman of the Board Zhu Yi hopes to build Biokin into an MNC with the success of BL-B01D1.In other words, Zhu Yi is prepared to bet all on this product.
  • Biokin’s valuation should be lower than Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK), but higher than RemeGen. If BL-B01D1’s development is successful, Biokin’s future valuation ceiling will be higher than Kelun Bio.  
  • Global peak sales revenue share of BL-B01D1 could reach approximately RMB20 billion. If based on P/S of 5x, market value is RMB100 billion. So, there’s bubble in valuation in A-share.

Primer: Rain Oncology (RAIN US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Company Acquired: Rain Oncology was acquired by Pathos AI, Inc. and ceased to trade as an independent public entity in January 2024. This primer analyzes the company’s status and assets leading up to the acquisition.
  • Pivotal Trial Failure: The company’s lead asset, milademetan, an MDM2 inhibitor, failed to meet its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 MANTRA trial for dedifferentiated liposarcoma in May 2023, leading to a strategic re-evaluation and significant restructuring.
  • Strategic Pivot to Acquisition: Following the clinical setback, Rain Oncology halted further development of milademetan in liposarcoma, reduced its workforce by 65%, and explored strategic alternatives, culminating in the acquisition by Pathos AI.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Steady, Actemra Shine, Outlicensed Drug and New Launches Key

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported flat Hemlibra sales in 9M25 overcoming shipment issues. Higher volumes boosted Actemra revenue (up 27% YoY) amid declining in export unit price.
  • 2025 guidance reiterated. Satisfactory progress after 9M25 with major line-items achieving 76-81% of full year guidance. Management expects to beat the export forecast in case of both Hemlibra and Actemra.
  • Strong progress of out-licensed products (nemluvio and orforglipron) with high sales potential will help drive growth in the short to medium term.

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK): Continued Strong Momentum in 3Q Leads to Consecutive FY Guidance Raise

By Tina Banerjee

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) has announced 3Q25 result, with revenue growing 15% YoY and net profit increasing 83% YoY. U.S. remains the main driving force behind the company’s strong performance.
  • With continuous capacity expansion to better meet customer demand, backlog for continuing operations reached a record high of RMB60B as of September 30, 2025, up 41% YoY.
  • Based on the current momentum and confidence in customers’ ongoing demand for enabling services, Wuxi AppTec has further raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 17–18% from 13–17%.

Primer: IGM Biosciences Inc (IGMS US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • IGM Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotechnology company centered on a proprietary platform for developing engineered Immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. The key differentiating feature of its technology is that IgM antibodies have 10 binding sites for a target, compared to two for conventional IgG antibodies, which may enable stronger binding and more potent biological activity.
  • Following a strategic pivot to exclusively focus on autoimmune diseases in late 2024, the company announced in January 2025 the discontinuation of its lead clinical programs, imvotamab and IGM-2644, after interim data showed insufficient efficacy. This significant clinical setback precipitated a major restructuring and a re-evaluation of strategic alternatives.
  • In July 2025, the company entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by Concentra Biosciences for $1.247 in cash per share plus a non-tradeable contingent value right (CVR). This event effectively ends its status as a standalone publicly traded entity, with future value for shareholders dependent on the CVR and the acquirer’s ability to realize value from the underlying IgM platform and remaining partnerships.

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Primer: Puma Biotechnology (PBYI US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Puma Biotechnology is a single-product commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, with its revenues entirely dependent on its sole approved product, NERLYNX (neratinib), for HER2-positive breast cancer.
  • The company has achieved profitability and positive operating cash flow, shifting its focus to maximizing NERLYNX sales and advancing its key pipeline asset, alisertib, an Aurora Kinase A inhibitor, into Phase II trials for breast and small cell lung cancer.
  • Significant long-term risk stems from intense competition in the HER2-positive breast cancer market from more effective therapies like AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu, alongside the eventual patent expiration of NERLYNX in 2030.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Dongfeng Motor, Seres Group , Digital Holdings Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Lenskart Solutions, Bloks Group, Heineken Holding NV, Las Vegas Sands, Universal Corp/Va and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Oct) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Minmetals, Soft99, Ashimori, Pacific Ind
  • Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares
  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Oct) – Digital Holdings, Soft99, Joy City, Minmetals, Sany, Seres, Pony AI
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound
  • Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June
  • Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside
  • Heineken Is Betting Big on Health Trends—What It Means for the Future of Beer!
  • Las Vegas Sands’ $8 Billion Bet: Inside the Singapore Expansion That’s Redefining Luxury Tourism!
  • Primer: Universal Corp/Va (UVV US) – Oct 2025


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

By Brian Freitas



Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

By Brian Freitas

  • Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
  • There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
  • Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Oct) – Digital Holdings, Soft99, Joy City, Minmetals, Sany, Seres, Pony AI

By Arun George


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day two weeks ago as markets fell sharply. About two-thirds that this past week as indices rebounded. High-div SOEs seeing buying demand.
  • The recommended name was short Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK). The stock was -4.9% over two weeks, but the H outperformed its A by 0.55%.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
  • The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.
  • Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. 
  • The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.

Heineken Is Betting Big on Health Trends—What It Means for the Future of Beer!

By Baptista Research

  • Heineken N.V.’s recent half-year earnings showcased a period of mixed performance, marked by both significant achievements and persistent challenges across its global operations.
  • The company reported solid profit growth, driven particularly by strong performances in its Africa, Middle East (AME), and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions, but continued to face difficulties in Europe and the Americas due to various macroeconomic factors and operational challenges.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Las Vegas Sands’ $8 Billion Bet: Inside the Singapore Expansion That’s Redefining Luxury Tourism!

By Baptista Research

  • Las Vegas Sands Corporation (LVS) has reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing impressive performance, particularly in its Singapore operation, Marina Bay Sands (MBS), and significant improvements in Macau.
  • The company’s Financial Year 2025 demonstrates robust growth, but some challenges remain, especially in Macau.
  • The standout performer in this quarter for Las Vegas Sands was Marina Bay Sands, which delivered EBITDA of $743 million, pointing to an expected annual EBITDA well above the projected $2.5 billion, potentially nearing $2.8 or $2.9 billion.

Primer: Universal Corp/Va (UVV US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Universal Corp is a global leader in the leaf tobacco supply industry, acting as a critical intermediary between farmers and large consumer tobacco product manufacturers. Its established global network and long-standing customer relationships provide a solid foundation for its core business.
  • Facing secular declines in global tobacco consumption, the company is strategically diversifying into the plant-based ingredients market. This initiative leverages its core competencies in agricultural sourcing and processing to create a new, potentially high-growth revenue stream.
  • The company is a consistent dividend payer with a long history of annual dividend increases, making it attractive to income-focused investors. However, its financial performance shows revenue growth offset by margin pressures and volatile cash flows, reflecting the challenging dynamics of its primary market.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief ESG: Companies that Wish to Distance from Facing Shareholders Are Unlikely to Achieve Management Reform and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies that Wish to Distance from Facing Shareholders Are Unlikely to Achieve Management Reform


Companies that Wish to Distance from Facing Shareholders Are Unlikely to Achieve Management Reform

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The increase in stock splits reflects a shift toward meeting the needs of individual shareholders of listed companies, occurring as cross-shareholdings decline and the presence of overseas investors grows.
  • Companies unwilling to increase foreign ownership further use stock splits to boost individual shareholders. Companies with low stock prices use it to meet as a tool of TSE’s P/B request.
  • It has become clear that increasing the foreign ownership is a higher priority than the increased costs associated with the rise in the number of shareholders resulting from stock split.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Activism Briefs: Yamaha Motor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Activism Briefs: Yamaha Motor, Tamron, NPC
  • Ohayo Japan | Dow Jones Closes Above 47,000 for First Time
  • Japan Morning Connection: SOX to New Highs After CPI Greenlights Further Cuts and Risk-On Mood


Japan Activism Briefs: Yamaha Motor, Tamron, NPC

By Mark Chadwick

  • Yamaha Motor (7272) | Silchester raised stake to 8.8%; shares down 20% despite core motorcycles/marine generating 20-30% ROIC, undermined by ¥62bn losses in RVs/Robotics.
  • Tamron (7740) | Effissimo increased holding to 13%; company trades at 6x EBIT with 20%+ margins, expanding from camera lenses into automotive ADAS and industrial optics.
  • NPC (6255) | LIM acquired 6% stake in solar equipment maker down 20% year-to-date, betting on perovskite cycle recovery despite withdrawn guidance and customer weakness.

Ohayo Japan | Dow Jones Closes Above 47,000 for First Time

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks surged to record highs on Friday following cooler-than-expected September inflation data that reinforced expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts
  • US-China officials negotiated a trade deal framework to pause higher US tariffs and Chinese rare earth export controls
  • This week: BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.50%; Takaichi to meet with Trump

Japan Morning Connection: SOX to New Highs After CPI Greenlights Further Cuts and Risk-On Mood

By Andrew Jackson

  • IBM continues to rerate as a Quantum name after announcing regular AMD chips can be used for qubit error correction.
  • Trump in Japan for the next 3-days likely to see defense, soybean and auto re-import pledges, but still waiting for a nuclear Takaichi.
  • Shin-Etsu earnings and guidance missed on PVC outlook, but this could be a bottom as US building sentiment set to improve.

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (27 October 2025)- Sany and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (27 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, PonyAI, WeRide, CIG, JST, Lenskart, Horizon, CRB
  • Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


ECM Weekly (27 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, PonyAI, WeRide, CIG, JST, Lenskart, Horizon, CRB

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Hong Kong and India markets appear to be gearing up for a year end rush.
  • On the placements front, there were no large deals this week but we did have a look at the upcoming lockup expiries.

Pre-IPO Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chairman of the Board Zhu Yi hopes to build Biokin into an MNC with the success of BL-B01D1.In other words, Zhu Yi is prepared to bet all on this product.
  • Biokin’s valuation should be lower than Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK), but higher than RemeGen. If BL-B01D1’s development is successful, Biokin’s future valuation ceiling will be higher than Kelun Bio.  
  • Global peak sales revenue share of BL-B01D1 could reach approximately RMB20 billion. If based on P/S of 5x, market value is RMB100 billion. So, there’s bubble in valuation in A-share.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Oct) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Minmetals, Soft99, Ashimori, Pacific Ind
  • Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares
  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Oct) – Digital Holdings, Soft99, Joy City, Minmetals, Sany, Seres, Pony AI
  • HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights
  • Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound
  • A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

By Brian Freitas



Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

By Brian Freitas

  • Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
  • There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
  • Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Oct) – Digital Holdings, Soft99, Joy City, Minmetals, Sany, Seres, Pony AI

By Arun George


HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.
  • Timing & Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.
  • Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC’s announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.

Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
  • The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day two weeks ago as markets fell sharply. About two-thirds that this past week as indices rebounded. High-div SOEs seeing buying demand.
  • The recommended name was short Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK). The stock was -4.9% over two weeks, but the H outperformed its A by 0.55%.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs

By Travis Lundy

  • The last two weeks have seen “Beautiful Skew” behave badly across the ten trading days. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) is trading too wide for its div into year-end.
  • The long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Curator’s Cut: Japan’s Defense Drive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Curator’s Cut: Japan’s Defense Drive, Asia’s Vision Opportunities & US Diagnostics Picks
  • Shorting NOF (4403) Just Now Is Probably a Very Bad Idea
  • IHI (7013 JP): SAR Satellite Deal Adds to Takaichi Trade
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.26) – Turning Point of Medical Device, Innovent-Takeda Deal Makes Sense
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – ECM and brokerage conditions remain strong
  • Pegasystems: Application Modernization with AI & Cloud Services Are Upping The Ante!
  • Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS
  • Vertiv Is Powering the AI Revolution—Can Its NVIDIA Collaboration Change the Game?
  • Moody’s Corporation: An Insight Into The Moody’s Analytics Expansion and Recurring Revenue Diversification!
  • From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)


Curator’s Cut: Japan’s Defense Drive, Asia’s Vision Opportunities & US Diagnostics Picks

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights shared on Smartkarma. After a brief one-issue break, we’re back with fresh perspectives.
  • In this cut, we explore Japan’s renewed defense ambitions, Asia’s eyewear evolution, and US diagnostics’ next frontiers.
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Shorting NOF (4403) Just Now Is Probably a Very Bad Idea

By Michael Allen

  • Japan’s defense budget may be set to surge by about 50%, making NOF’s ammunition business a hot theme.
  • Be careful though. NOF’s munitions segment faces production limits and slow capacity expansion, capping near-term profit growth even with new defense spending.
  • We think NOF is overvalued, even as we acknowledge consensus forecasts are probably too low. But shorting now would probably just be fighting the tape. Save this idea for later.

IHI (7013 JP): SAR Satellite Deal Adds to Takaichi Trade

By Scott Foster

  • New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aims to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP this fiscal year, two years ahead of the original schedule.
  • Takaichi also wants to accelerate investment in advanced defense technologies. IHI, which recently signed an agreement with ICEYE to build earth observations satellites, should be among the beneficiaries.
  • IHI’s sales and profit comparisons should turn positive during FY Mar-26. A 7-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2025, makes the shares more attractive to retail investors. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.26) – Turning Point of Medical Device, Innovent-Takeda Deal Makes Sense

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Whether it is big pharmaceutical company or Biopharma that currently generates revenue/profits mainly through one or two products, they may not be able to “defend” successfully in long term.
  • The logic for innovative medical device is similar to innovative drugs – It takes 1-2 years from the turning point of policies to the turning point of fundamentals.
  • The Innovent-Takeda deal is logical. However, stock price performance of Innovent was disappointing, which is due to the “turning point” of HK biotech sector.The current decline is far from over.

Bell Financial Group Ltd – ECM and brokerage conditions remain strong

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • The latest ASX ECM data suggests raisings in the September quarter were 8% above the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 45% above the June 2025 quarter.
  • In terms of market share, the latest Dealogic data suggests Bell Potter has held share relative to the pcp, while raising US$0.75b (A$1.2b) against US$0.63b (A$1.0b) year to date October 2025 (+20%).

Pegasystems: Application Modernization with AI & Cloud Services Are Upping The Ante!

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems’ third-quarter financial results from 2025 highlight both strengths and challenges for the company.
  • The reported results underline Pegasystems’ ability to execute its cloud strategy and leverage artificial intelligence innovations, which have been key growth drivers.
  • The company’s focus on AI-driven process automation and orchestration platforms remains a cornerstone of its strategy, which is increasingly appealing to financial services and other regulated industries due to its approach of ensuring predictable workflows.

Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.
  • Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.
  • This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.

Vertiv Is Powering the AI Revolution—Can Its NVIDIA Collaboration Change the Game?

By Baptista Research

  • Vertiv Corporation reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, indicating strong growth across several metrics.
  • The company reported an adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.24, a 63% increase year-over-year, largely driven by enhanced operating profit margins, which stood at 22.3%, up from the previous year.
  • Organic net sales grew 28%, with the Americas contributing a substantial 43%, and the AsiaPacific (APAC) region also showing a strong performance with a 21% increase.

Moody’s Corporation: An Insight Into The Moody’s Analytics Expansion and Recurring Revenue Diversification!

By Baptista Research

  • Moody’s Corporation reported a strong financial performance in its third-quarter results for 2025, achieving a record revenue of over $2 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year.
  • The corporation has also raised full-year guidance across nearly all metrics, demonstrating considerable growth and operational leverage.
  • The adjusted operating margin stood at 53%, a 500-basis point improvement from the previous year, and adjusted diluted EPS increased by 22% to $3.92, highlighting robust earnings power.

From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)

By Rikki Malik

  • A stock that should benefit from the resumption of Japan’s bull market
  • Utility type stock poised to rerate  as a growth narrative starts
  • The stock has recently broken out of its 18 month downtrend

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