Smartkarma Daily Briefs

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

By Brian Freitas

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500

A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

By David Blennerhassett

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares.
Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling; but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and six DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review based on the latest available data.

Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) has once again provided a revised rights offering prospectus following another request from the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
Rights offering amount remains the same at 2.3 trillion won. Expected rights offering price is 539,000 won which is subject to change. New shares listing date is 21 July 2025.
Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 5.5 trillion won (14.3% better than consensus) and operating profit of 560.8 billion won (11.7% better than consensus) in 1Q 2025.

UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market

By Phil Rush

Domestic tax hikes are more substantial than US tariffs in April, so the impact should not be forgotten, even if the UK government wants to blame any damage on Trump.
Frontrunning April’s stamp duty increases stoked transactions and lending, and may take at least a few months to recover afterwards. Resilient approvals are reassuring.
Higher transaction costs probably won’t break expectations into a downwards spiral, but are now widely cited as a major hurdle, contributing to slower UK activity growth.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer.
There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief Australia: Pureprofile Ltd, ADX Energy Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pureprofile Ltd – Record Q3 revenue, FY25 guidance reaffirmed
ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Readying-up the portfolio to return to drilling in 4Q, 2025

Pureprofile Ltd – Record Q3 revenue, FY25 guidance reaffirmed

Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
On April 30, Pureprofile reported a 16% increase in Q3 FY25 revenue to $12.7m and a 16% increase in Q3 EBITDA to $0.6m versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).
Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) revenue grew 10% on the pcp to $6.6m while Rest of World (RoW) jumped 24% to $6.1m, or 48% of total revenue.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Readying-up the portfolio to return to drilling in 4Q, 2025

By Auctus Advisors

• 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d.
This is in line with our expectations.
ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Inc, Shinsegae and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (March and April 2025)
Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (March and April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in March and April 2025.
There were 40 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
Astute traders should put alert signals on share buyback announcements in Korea with more than 3% outstanding shares.

Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung

By Douglas Kim

On 30 April, Lee Myung-Hee (Chairwoman of Shinsegae Group) decided to transfer all of her 10.2% stake in Shinsegae (004170 KS) as a gift to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung.
After this gift, Chung Yoo-Kyung’s ownership in Shinsegae will rise from 18.95% to 29.16%.
We are positive on this share transfer of 10.2% stake in Shinsegae from mother (Lee Myung-Hee) to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung on the share price impact on Shinsegae.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Intel Corp, Qualcomm Inc, SES AI Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Meta 1Q’25 Update
Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?
Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap
SES AI Corp. – MU-0 Shows the Future for SES AI Across Multiple Battery Markets

Meta 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

Digital advertising has surpassed the days of “Mad Men” a while ago and thanks to AI, it seems even better positioned to unlock new markets and more opportunities.
Meta is, of course, one of the companies leading this march.
Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 80 mn QoQ in 1Q’25.

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating

On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.
Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

By Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25.
QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood.
The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx

SES AI Corp. – MU-0 Shows the Future for SES AI Across Multiple Battery Markets

By Water Tower Research

SES AI, a leader in AI-powered battery research, released the first version of Molecular Universe MU- 0 on April 29.
The live demo explained MU-0’s features and pricing structures. Molecular Universe is for mass- produced material discovery and development services, SES AI’s largest and most profitable revenue component.
The company expects the platform to deliver commercially practical winning solutions that help users compete.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief China: Hainan Meilan International Airport, Kayou, Luckin Coffee, Fujian Lemo IoT Technology, Suzhou Ribo Life Science and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO
Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer
Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China
[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales
Pre-IPO Fujian Lemo IoT Technology – The Outlook for Growth and Profit Margins Is Not Optimistic
Suzhou Ribo Life Science (瑞博生物) Pre-IPO Quick View: Scarcity of SiRNA Player

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

By David Blennerhassett

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares.
Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling; but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The change in controlling shareholder at Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) will trigger a general offer. At HK$10.62, we do not see the proposed offer price attractive.
The proposed price is only at 10.6% premium to the latest closing price, and equals to 1.15x 12-month forward P/B, way lower than the 5-year peak of 5.1x.
The new parent Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH) can generate synergy, and the turn of Hainan into a Free Trade Port will attract visitors, boosting the long-term outlook.

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

By Andrei Zakharov

Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.
Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.
Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C1Q25 revenue in-line/6% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 9%/75% higher than our estimate/consensus, thanks to warmer weather and constrained marketing spending;
Despite Luckin pre-emptive lock-ins, rising coffee bean price shall still take its toll as Luckin’s biggest rival Starbucks should be equally capable of managing the commodity price risk.
We keep Luckin as BUY rating but cut TP to US$39.

Pre-IPO Fujian Lemo IoT Technology – The Outlook for Growth and Profit Margins Is Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Lemo increased the number of massage equipment in the cinemas significantly, but the transaction value has reflected its ineffective business expansion. The Company may have already encountered a growth ceiling.
Lemo’s business model requires high occupancy fee and maintenance costs, which is hard to decrease. However, if revenue growth slows down, Lemo’s profits would be “eroded” due to high costs.
In Sep. 2024, valuation of Lemo reached RMB750 million. We think valuation of Lemo could be lower than that of peers in the future due to concerns on the outlook.

Suzhou Ribo Life Science (瑞博生物) Pre-IPO Quick View: Scarcity of SiRNA Player

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Suzhou Ribo Life is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC and Citi are the deal sponsors.
Ribo Life is a world leading company in the area of siRNA research.
The company’s RBD4059 is potentially the first in class siRNA drug for thrombotic diseases.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief India: Vedanta Ltd, Jindal Steel & Power, TVS Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey
Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase
TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.

TVS Motor Q4FY25 Review: Premium Valuation Backed by Strategic Execution or Investor Over-Optimism?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Robust Operating Performance:TVS Motor (TVSL IN) reported 17% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25 with EBITDA margins at 12.5% (ex-PLI) — stable despite input cost pressures.
EV Momentum & Premium Product Strength: EV sales rose 54% YoY, and TVS continued to gain traction in the premium segment through its Apache and Ntorq models.
Valuation Demands Flawless Execution:At 58x P/E TTM EPS,TVS commands a steep premium over peers.Justifying this requires sustained outperformance in EV adoption, export monetization, and premium product cycles without margin erosion.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Shibaura Electronics, Sony Corp, Ebay Inc, Tokyo Electron, Hakuto Co Ltd, Meiwa Corp, Japan Investment Adviser Co, Nihon Chouzai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time
SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update
Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Japan Investment Adviser Co (7172 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500

A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer.
There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive.

SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

Content-Driven growth: Strong performance in music and gaming supports Sony’s shift toward high-margin content, insulating it from trade and macro headwinds.
Upcoming catalysts: Spin-off of Sony Financial and potential restructuring could unlock value and address the long-standing conglomerate discount.
Attractive valuation: Trading at 14x EV/EBIT with defensive sector exposure, Sony remains undervalued relative to global peers despite YTD outperformance.

Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom

By Michael Causton

Qoo10 is tiny in comparison to Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo but it punches well above its weight by specialisation.
The online mall’s focus on Korean cosmetics and lifestyle has given it a depth of loyalty among young women that was once the preserve of Zozo.
Along with its other platform Move, Ebay Japan has built a solid presence in the Japanese market which looks set to continue to expand.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.
For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.
The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.

Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update

FY03/25 results: Sales JPY183.1bn (+0.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY7.9bn (+3.6% YoY), Net income JPY5.1bn (-0.9% YoY).
FY03/25 forecast: Sales JPY186.0bn (+1.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY6.0bn (-24.2% YoY), Net income JPY4.9bn (-4.5% YoY).
Hakuto’s medium-term plan targets sustainable growth by FY03/29, with Vision 2030 and Hakuto 2028 initiatives.

Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue was JPY156.7bn (-1.0% YoY), with operating profit JPY3.6bn (+20.1% YoY) and net income JPY3.4bn (+22.6% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY160.0bn (+2.1% YoY), operating profit JPY3.2bn (-10.3% YoY), net income JPY3.0bn (-11.1% YoY).
Meiwa plans a JPY38.00 per share dividend for FY03/26, down from JPY42.00 in FY03/25.

Japan Investment Adviser Co (7172 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Q1 revenue increased 22.3% YoY, driven by a 19.5% rise in Operating Lease business revenue, reaching JPY11.0bn.
Operating profit margin rose 9.9pp to 63.3% in Q1, despite foreign exchange losses of JPY448mn.
Total value of operating lease deals arranged in Q1 was JPY79.3bn, with significant growth in vessel arrangements.

Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Sales increased by 5.9% YoY to JPY360.5bn, but operating profit decreased by 31.8% YoY to JPY6.2bn.
Pharmaceutical Manufacturing faced a JPY630mn operating loss due to NHI drug price revisions and manufacturing deficiencies.
FY03/26 forecasts sales of JPY372.8bn (+3.4% YoY) and net income of JPY3.5bn (+151.6% YoY).

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Vedanta Ltd, ADX Energy Ltd, Jindal Steel & Power, Taiyo Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey
ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Readying-up the portfolio to return to drilling in 4Q, 2025
Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase
Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Readying-up the portfolio to return to drilling in 4Q, 2025

By Auctus Advisors

• 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d.
This is in line with our expectations.
ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March.

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Sales increased 13.6% YoY to JPY119.0bn, with Electronics segment sales rising 14.4% YoY to JPY81.7bn.
Operating profit grew 21.2% YoY to JPY22.1bn, driven by high-value-added products and yen depreciation benefits.
Medical and Pharmaceuticals segment profit declined 36.9% YoY due to increased costs and impairment loss.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief Industrials: Hainan Meilan International Airport, Aeorema Communications, Meiwa Corp, Rasa Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO
Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 23/04/2025
Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Rasa Corporation (3023 JP): Coverage Initiation

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

By David Blennerhassett

Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares.
Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling; but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The change in controlling shareholder at Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) will trigger a general offer. At HK$10.62, we do not see the proposed offer price attractive.
The proposed price is only at 10.6% premium to the latest closing price, and equals to 1.15x 12-month forward P/B, way lower than the 5-year peak of 5.1x.
The new parent Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH) can generate synergy, and the turn of Hainan into a Free Trade Port will attract visitors, boosting the long-term outlook.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 23/04/2025

By Hybridan

The strategic communications group with offices in London, New York, and Cannes reports a renewed contract with Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW).
It is to produce SPORT BEACH at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity in June 2025.
The event includes a reimagined structural design, expanded capacity, new interactive elements and new brand partners, and global athletes.

Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue was JPY156.7bn (-1.0% YoY), with operating profit JPY3.6bn (+20.1% YoY) and net income JPY3.4bn (+22.6% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY160.0bn (+2.1% YoY), operating profit JPY3.2bn (-10.3% YoY), net income JPY3.0bn (-11.1% YoY).
Meiwa plans a JPY38.00 per share dividend for FY03/26, down from JPY42.00 in FY03/25.

Rasa Corporation (3023 JP): Coverage Initiation

In FY03/24, Rasa reported revenue of JPY27.9bn (-5.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY2.5bn (-12.5% YoY), recurring profit of JPY2.8bn (-5.6% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY2.0bn (-5.5% YoY).
Despite higher profit in the Industrial and Construction Machinery business, overall operating profit declined YoY due to lower profit in the Resources and Metallic Materials and Plant and Equipment Engineering businesses.
In FY03/25, the company forecasts revenue of JPY27.7bn (-0.8% YoY), operating profit of JPY2.3bn (-7.9% YoY), recurring profit of JPY2.5bn (-11.2% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY1.9bn (-4.9% YoY).

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Intel Corp, Qualcomm Inc, Tokyo Electron, Pureprofile Ltd, Hakuto Co Ltd, Solid State PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time
Meta 1Q’25 Update
Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?
Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Pureprofile Ltd – Record Q3 revenue, FY25 guidance reaffirmed
Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update
Solid State — Year-end update ahead of consensus

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500

A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer.
There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive.

Meta 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

Digital advertising has surpassed the days of “Mad Men” a while ago and thanks to AI, it seems even better positioned to unlock new markets and more opportunities.
Meta is, of course, one of the companies leading this march.
Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 80 mn QoQ in 1Q’25.

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating

On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.
Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

By Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25.
QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood.
The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.
For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.
The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.

Pureprofile Ltd – Record Q3 revenue, FY25 guidance reaffirmed

Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
On April 30, Pureprofile reported a 16% increase in Q3 FY25 revenue to $12.7m and a 16% increase in Q3 EBITDA to $0.6m versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).
Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) revenue grew 10% on the pcp to $6.6m while Rest of World (RoW) jumped 24% to $6.1m, or 48% of total revenue.

Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update