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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 02
0

Daily Brief Credit: Adani Green Energy – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Adani Green Energy – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia:

Adani Green Energy – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) has released acceptable H1/23-24 results, with the company reporting strong earnings growth and robust margins. Leverage improved on the back of the higher earnings, even though net debt increased slightly. That said, we anticipate that the negative FCF will deepen in H2 and FY 2024-25, as AGEL has guided for significant capex in order to expand capacity.

Positively, management has affirmed its plans to repay the USD 750 mn ADANIG 4.375 24 using funds already set aside at the promoter level. It also plans to refinance the USD 500 mn ADGREG 6.25 24 through a new bond issuance. The company is likely to formally announce its refinancing plans by December 2023 (as required under the bond indentures).

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  Direct Beneficiary Of Moutai Raising Ex-Factory Price and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

    In today’s briefing:

    • ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  Direct Beneficiary Of Moutai Raising Ex-Factory Price
    • Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years
    • AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024
    • Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game
    • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity
    • STAN – Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher
    • DBS – Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative
    • Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued
    • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward
    • China Minsheng Bank’s NII Decline Has Slowed for 3Q23, Asset Quality Stabilized For Now

    ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  Direct Beneficiary Of Moutai Raising Ex-Factory Price

    By Steve Zhou, CFA

    • Late last night (near mid-night), Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) shocked the market by announcing a direct price hike on its main Feitian 53 degree product by an average of 20%. 
    • The market had no expectation of such price hike as it was widely perceived that Moutai could not directly increase the ex-factory price due to regulatory pressures. 
    • Moutai’s Feitian ex-factory price is the key price leader for pretty much all other major Baijiu brand, directly benefiting ZJLD Group (6979 HK).

    Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

    By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

    • AEM (AEM SP) will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.
    • We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with Advantest Corp (6857 JP). 
    • Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM’s stock has bottomed.

    AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024

    By William Keating

    • Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.
    • Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ
    • MI300 forecasted to hit > $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company’s history

    Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game

    By Victor Galliano

    • The latest BoJ adjustment to its yield curve control lifts the hard yield ceiling of 1% on 10 year JGBs, making it “a reference” and allowing yields to exceed it
    • 10 year JGB yields are close to 1%, with Japanese bond yields steepening further which is positive for Japanese banks, especially those with a high share of floating-rate credit exposures
    • We stick with our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Hachijuni; we add Concordia to our buy list for its high share of floating rate credit exposure

    GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

    By Angus Mackintosh

    • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.
    • The company’s focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. 
    • GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.

    STAN – Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

    By Daniel Tabbush

    • Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at Standard Chartered (STAN LN) but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans
    • There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3
    • Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank’s rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates

    DBS – Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

    By Daniel Tabbush

    • The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital. 
    • The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.
    • UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.

    Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued

    By Douglas Kim

    • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation which is a holding company of the Hanwha Group. We argue that Hanwha Corp’s shares are trading excessively below its NAV. 
    • Hanwha Corp is down 10.5% YTD, underperforming Hanwha Aerospace (up 54.2% YTD). Hanwha Corp’s stake in Hanwha Aerospace is worth 1.9 trillion won (14% higher than Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 
    • Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) suggests NAV of 2.3 trillion won or NAV per share of 30,203 won which is 33% higher than current price.

    Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Big Step Forward

    By Osbert Tang, CFA

    • Shenzhen International (152 HK) has reached agreement with the government on the South China Logistics Park Phase I transformation and it will receive Rmb1.058bn compensation.
    • The sum equals a significant 9% of SZI’s market capitalisation. The agreement also kick-started the project’s long-term contribution, which may provide an income stream lasting 3-5 years.
    • The deal showcased SZI’s ability to realise the underlying value of its assets. The stock should not be valued on its earnings, and its 0.3x P/B is deeply undervalued.

    China Minsheng Bank’s NII Decline Has Slowed for 3Q23, Asset Quality Stabilized For Now

    By Fern Wang

    • NII decline has slowed but the overall profitability is lacklustre
    • Asset quality stabilized for now, real estate exposure remains a concern
    • We believe the turnaround of the bank is still pretty far off. 

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Event-Driven: Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

    In today’s briefing:

    • Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows
    • Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down – Opportunity Abounds, Still
    • Symbio Backs ABB’s Reduced Terms
    • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet
    • Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Lower Binding Proposal

    Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows

    By Brian Freitas

    • The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), the merger could be in trouble.
    • Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.
    • There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.

    Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down – Opportunity Abounds, Still

    By Travis Lundy

    • 40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
    • 92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
    • Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.

    Symbio Backs ABB’s Reduced Terms

    By David Blennerhassett

    • Back on the 22 September, Superloop Ltd (SLC AU) lobbed a best and final cash/scrip NBIO for Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) with an implied price of A$2.85/share.
    • Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU) then tabled a cash/scrip Offer, with an implied price of  A$3.151/share. Symbio was supportive, if terms were firmed. Superloop’s Offer subsequently lapsed.
    • ABB returned with a reduced cash/scrip Offer of A$2.99-$3.04/share. Symbio has unanimously recommended the Offer (at A$3.011/share) and they entered into a Scheme agreement. A partially/fully franked dividend is permitted.

    AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

    By Brian Freitas

    • We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
    • Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
    • On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.

    Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Lower Binding Proposal

    By Arun George

    • Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)‘s binding proposal with Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU) is at A$2.26 cash and 0.192 ABB shares per SYM share, 3.2% lower than its earlier proposal.
    • The key condition is shareholder approval. The scheme booklet will be despatched on 22 December, with a scheme meeting in early February 2024.
    • While the offer is light compared to long-term historical prices and multiples, there seem to be no signs of dissent from institutional or retail investors. 

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Macro: China Economics: A Smaller and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Macro

    In today’s briefing:

    • China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road
    • Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now
    • Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
    • 5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio
    • Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change
    • FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals
    • Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report
    • CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models
    • Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact
    • Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

    China Economics: A Smaller, Smarter Belt and Road

    By Manu Bhaskaran

    • As Beijing heralds the tenth anniversary of its Belt and Road Initiative, we foresee that it will reorient the initiative in response to the new domestic and geopolitical environment. 
    • The Initiative has been a remarkable venture in economic diplomacy, buying China considerable leverage while delivering concrete benefits for recipient countries.  There have, however, been setbacks. 
    • Despite the difficulties, Beijing is likely to maintain support for the Initiative. Shifts in project size and target sectors may lead to a smaller, but smarter, Belt and Road.

    Great Game – The 3 Biggest Geopolitical Risks for Markets Right Now

    By Mikkel Rosenvold

    • Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
    • We give you our take on the hottest geopolitical topics of relevance to your portfolio.
    • This week, we cover the 3 biggest geopolitical risks for markets right now and what to look our for.

    Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

    By Andreas Steno

    • Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
    • No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
    • We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

    5 Things We Watch – BOJ, JPY, Treasury, Equities & Portfolio

    By Ulrik Simmelholt

    • Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception with ongoing turmoil at the BOJ amidst their decision to change the YCC policy.
    • As always, we have collected 5 of the things we find to be the most important to watch in the current landscape.
    • YCC flexibility from the BOJ and more JPY weakness to come?

    Singapore Politics: Leadership Succession Is Nearing, Expect Little Policy Change

    By Manu Bhaskaran

    • Incumbent Singapore prime minister Lee is likely aiming for a formal handover to deputy premier Wong in early 2024. This will be a crucial political transition for the city-state. 
    • The just-released Forward Singapore report implies that policy thinking will remain anchored to traditional ideological moorings. This leaves unanswered questions about social mobility, cost pressures, the housing market, and immigration.  
    • Lee would like to end his term with an agreement with neighbouring Malaysia on strengthening economic ties, which could be transformational for both countries.

    FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

    By Andreas Steno

    • Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.
    • We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.
    • Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

    Liquidity & Treasury Watch: The Ramifications of the Quarterly Refunding Report

    By Andreas Steno

    • The quarterly refunding report from the US Treasury was far from the issuance-bazooka that some had expected.
    • There was no move in the target for the Treasury General Account either as we had expected, but it is not a reason to celebrate for bond bulls anyway.
    • Let’s have a look at the details and the consequences for USD liquidity.

    CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models

    By Caixin Global

    • AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models

    • Li Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on Thursday

    • China-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration

    Spot Bitcoin ETF – A Reasonable Approach to Impact

    By Jeroen Blokland

    • From a risk diversification perspective, a spot Bitcoin ETF investing in Bitcoin outside the current system is more appealing than a derivatives Bitcoin ETF.
    • Using assets under management data of multi-asset, real assets, and gold ETFs, we estimate the potential AUM of spot Bitcoin ETFs somewhere between USD 50-150 billion.
    • Assuming that the share of equity and bond ETFs of total assets investments is representative of spot Bitcoin ETFs, you are looking at a Bitcoin price between USD 41,000-113,000.

    Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

    By Thomas Lam

    • With an unchanged meeting outcome priced-in, the focus was exclusively on the accompanying statement and presser 
    • The post-meeting statement and Powell’s presser, while conditional, left the option to hike on the table  
    • The latest market expectations and my rule-based estimates offer clues on the likely path of Fed policy 

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Australia: Symbio Holdings, Calima Energy and more

    By | Australia, Daily Briefs

    In today’s briefing:

    • Symbio Backs ABB’s Reduced Terms
    • Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Lower Binding Proposal
    • Calima Energy Ltd (ASX: CE1): High production in 4Q23 and 1Q24

    Symbio Backs ABB’s Reduced Terms

    By David Blennerhassett

    • Back on the 22 September, Superloop Ltd (SLC AU) lobbed a best and final cash/scrip NBIO for Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) with an implied price of A$2.85/share.
    • Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU) then tabled a cash/scrip Offer, with an implied price of  A$3.151/share. Symbio was supportive, if terms were firmed. Superloop’s Offer subsequently lapsed.
    • ABB returned with a reduced cash/scrip Offer of A$2.99-$3.04/share. Symbio has unanimously recommended the Offer (at A$3.011/share) and they entered into a Scheme agreement. A partially/fully franked dividend is permitted.

    Symbio (SYM AU): Aussie Broadband’s Lower Binding Proposal

    By Arun George

    • Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)‘s binding proposal with Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU) is at A$2.26 cash and 0.192 ABB shares per SYM share, 3.2% lower than its earlier proposal.
    • The key condition is shareholder approval. The scheme booklet will be despatched on 22 December, with a scheme meeting in early February 2024.
    • While the offer is light compared to long-term historical prices and multiples, there seem to be no signs of dissent from institutional or retail investors. 

    Calima Energy Ltd (ASX: CE1): High production in 4Q23 and 1Q24

    By Auctus Advisors

    • • 3Q23 production was 3,683 boe/d, slightly below the company’s guidance due to maintenance, turn-around operations at two of the production facilities and unscheduled downhole maintenance on pumping equipment on a few of the more productive wells. 
    • This is more than offset by the high current production of ~4,100 boe/d following Pisces 10 and 11 being brought into production.
    • Calima forecasts 4Q23 production of 4,028 boe/d and we have increased our 4Q23 production forecast of 3,740 boe/d to 4,030 boe/d to be in line with Calima’s guidance.

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Singapore: AEM, DBS and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

    In today’s briefing:

    • Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years
    • DBS – Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

    Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

    By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

    • AEM (AEM SP) will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.
    • We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with Advantest Corp (6857 JP). 
    • Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM’s stock has bottomed.

    DBS – Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

    By Daniel Tabbush

    • The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital. 
    • The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.
    • UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Inc, Hanwha Corporation, Coupang and more

    By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

    In today’s briefing:

    • Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows
    • Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued
    • Coupang Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

    Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows

    By Brian Freitas

    • The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), the merger could be in trouble.
    • Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.
    • There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.

    Hanwha Corp: Updated NAV Analysis – Defense Assets Undervalued

    By Douglas Kim

    • We provide an updated NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation which is a holding company of the Hanwha Group. We argue that Hanwha Corp’s shares are trading excessively below its NAV. 
    • Hanwha Corp is down 10.5% YTD, underperforming Hanwha Aerospace (up 54.2% YTD). Hanwha Corp’s stake in Hanwha Aerospace is worth 1.9 trillion won (14% higher than Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 
    • Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) suggests NAV of 2.3 trillion won or NAV per share of 30,203 won which is 33% higher than current price.

    Coupang Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

    By Baptista Research

    • This is our first report on South Korean e-commerce giant, Coupang Inc.
    • The company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
    • The company observed an acceleration in revenue and active customer growth, particularly noteworthy for the rapid acceleration in active customer numbers.

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief India: Polycab India , Honasa Consumer, Adani Green Energy, Ask Automotive and more

    By | Daily Briefs, India

    In today’s briefing:

    • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet
    • Honasa Consumer Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
    • Adani Green Energy – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
    • ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated

    AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

    By Brian Freitas

    • We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
    • Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
    • On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.

    Honasa Consumer Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

    By Nitin Mangal

    • Honasa Consumer (1652951D IN) IPO is a book built issue worth INR 17 bn, comprising INR 3.65 bn worth fresh issue and INR 13.4 bn of OFS (41.2 mn shares). 
    • The company is renowned for its flagship brand, Mama Earth while it has acquired other brands recently such as B-Blunt, Dr. Sheth and has also ventured in the salon business. 
    • Our concerns remain on the A&P spends and related growth output, acquisition value and employee churning.

    Adani Green Energy – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

    By Leonard Law, CFA

    Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) has released acceptable H1/23-24 results, with the company reporting strong earnings growth and robust margins. Leverage improved on the back of the higher earnings, even though net debt increased slightly. That said, we anticipate that the negative FCF will deepen in H2 and FY 2024-25, as AGEL has guided for significant capex in order to expand capacity.

    Positively, management has affirmed its plans to repay the USD 750 mn ADANIG 4.375 24 using funds already set aside at the promoter level. It also plans to refinance the USD 500 mn ADGREG 6.25 24 through a new bond issuance. The company is likely to formally announce its refinancing plans by December 2023 (as required under the bond indentures).

    ASK Automotive Pre-IPO – Business Has Been Resilient, Although Concentration Risk Remains Elevated

    By Clarence Chu

    • Ask Automotive (7175293Z IN) is looking to raise around US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
    • ASK Automotive (ASKA) is the largest manufacturer of brake-shoe and advanced braking (AB) systems for 2Ws in India, in terms of FY23 production volume for OEMs and the branded IAM.
    • As per CRISIL, it had an approximate 50% market share in said market. The IPO is expected to consist of 100% secondary shares, with promoters trimming their stakes.

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Indika Energy, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

    In today’s briefing:

    • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity
    • Indika Energy – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
    • Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Remains the Stand Out

    GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

    By Angus Mackintosh

    • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.
    • The company’s focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. 
    • GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.

    Indika Energy – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

    By Trung Nguyen

    Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
    We view Indika Energy’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

    Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Remains the Stand Out

    By Victor Galliano

    • Bank Negara remains our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its very attractive PEG ratio, whilst improving post-provision returns and registering strong liquidity
    • We also keep Bank Mandiri on a buy rating, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued in our view, has impressive return
    • Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 3Q23, along with cost of risk; its heavily MSME focused loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward

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    Nov 02
    0

    Daily Brief United States: Advanced Micro Devices, USD, Paccar Inc, Waste Management, General Electric , Illinois Tool Works, 3M Co, Marsh & Mclennan, Sherwin Williams Co, Southern Copper and more

    By | Daily Briefs, United States

    In today’s briefing:

    • AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024
    • Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?
    • PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers
    • Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers
    • General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers
    • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers
    • 3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers
    • Marsh & McLennan Companies: String Of Recent Acquisitions Driving Growth? – Major Drivers
    • The Sherwin-Williams Company: Acquisition Game-Changer! How Oskar Nolte & Klumpp Coatings Set the Stage for Future Wins! – Major Drivers
    • Southern Copper Corporation: Can It Defy The Odds? – Major Drivers

    AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024

    By William Keating

    • Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.
    • Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ
    • MI300 forecasted to hit > $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company’s history

    Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

    By Andreas Steno

    • Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.
    • No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.
    • We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

    PACCAR Inc: Does The Battery Revolution Imply A Possible Investment Opportunity? – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • PACCAR managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, with net income surging by 60% year-over-year to a historic $1.23 billion, accompanied by a 23% increase in revenues.
    • PACCAR Parts also played a pivotal role in the company’s success, with third-quarter revenues reaching $1.58 billion and Parts pretax profits increasing by 10% to $412 million.
    • PACCAR Financial achieved an impressive pretax income of $134 million in the financial sector in the third quarter.

    Waste Management: Recycling Tech Transforms Business! Inside their Next-Gen Sustainability Approach! – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • Waste Management delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
    • The solid waste business was the driving force behind this achievement, with organic revenue growth in collection and disposal aligning well with expectations.
    • The resilience of solid waste volumes, with positive trends in commercial volumes and special waste growth, stood out.

    General Electric Company: A Lucrative Strategy Of Future-Proof Investments Revealed! – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • General Electric Company delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
    • Orders increased by double digits, with services up by 15% and equipment up by 22%, driven primarily by the commercial aerospace sector.
    • The aerospace segment, in particular, experienced substantial growth, with commercial engines and services leading the way.

    Illinois Tool Works Inc.: Surge in China’s Automotive Segment – Unveiling Recent Big Winners! – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • Illinois Tool Works delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent results, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
    • The company had relatively stable organic growth in the quarter, with a 2% increase on an equal-day basis.
    • Operating margin for the third quarter reached 26.5%, marking a 200-basis point increase compared to the previous year.

    3M Company: How They’re Dominating the Market! – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • 3M Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
    • This success has positioned the company for a promising conclusion to the year 2023.
    • The company also addresses potential risk and uncertainty by resolving significant litigation matters, such as Combat Arms and PFAS litigation.

    Marsh & McLennan Companies: String Of Recent Acquisitions Driving Growth? – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
    • The company achieved an unprecedented quarterly underlying revenue growth over two decades and reported substantial growth in adjusted EPS.
    • Marsh McLennan Agency acquired Graham Company, a top-100 US insurance and benefits broker and risk management consultancy, bolstering the company’s Mid-Atlantic presence.

    The Sherwin-Williams Company: Acquisition Game-Changer! How Oskar Nolte & Klumpp Coatings Set the Stage for Future Wins! – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • The Sherwin-Williams Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
    • In the third quarter, Sherwin-Williams’ Paint Stores Group exhibited commendable resilience, with a 3.6% increase in sales, despite a demanding 21.5% comparison.
    • Within the Paint Stores Group, the Protective & Marine sector emerged as the fastest-growing, achieving double-digit percentage sales growth against a mid-teens comparison.

    Southern Copper Corporation: Can It Defy The Odds? – Major Drivers

    By Baptista Research

    • Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, demonstrating resilience and adaptability.
    • Copper, constituting a significant 75% of their sales, faced a marginal 9% decline in production, primarily due to diminished ore grades in the Cuajone mine.
    • Amidst these challenges, Southern Copper remained proactive, predicting a 6% increase in copper production for the year 2023, aiming for 917,000 tons.

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