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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Ford Motor Co, NVIDIA Corp, Vf Corp, Emerald Holding , HEICO Corp, Pros Holdings, US Cellular, Best Buy Co Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Ford Halts Construction of U.S. EV Battery Plant Using CATL Technology
  • Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long
  • VF Corporation: Understanding the Dynamics Behind The Recent Financial Performance! – Major Drivers
  • Emerald Holding: Does Onex Exploring A Sale Imply That The Company Has A Limited Upside?
  • HEICO Corporation: Behind The Scenes Of The Recent Performance & The Wencor Acquisition! – Major Drivers
  • PROS Holdings Acquisition Alert: A Golden Opportunity or a Mirage for Investors?
  • UScellular’s Exploration of Sale: A Strategic Move Or A Desperate Measure?
  • Best Buy Co. Inc.: Unpacking the Strategies Yielding Profitability Gains in Membership Programs! – Major Drivers


Ford Halts Construction of U.S. EV Battery Plant Using CATL Technology

By Caixin Global

  • Ford Motor Co. said Monday it was suspending construction of its $3.5 billion electric-vehicle (EV) battery plant in the U.S. midwestern state of Michigan, where it had planned to manufacture batteries using technology licensed from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) (300750.SZ -0.31%).
  • “We’re pausing work and limiting spending on construction on the Marshall project until we’re confident about our ability to competitively operate the plant,” Ford spokesperson T.R. Reid said in a statement emailed to Caixin.
  • “There are a number of considerations. We haven’t been specific about what they are, nor made any final decision about the planned investment there,” Reid said.

Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan’s AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.
  • We don’t want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks — We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.
  • Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.

VF Corporation: Understanding the Dynamics Behind The Recent Financial Performance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • VF Corporation delivered a mixed result in the past quarter, with revenues above anticipations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • While their on-time performance and in-stock percentages were both back in line with their expectations, lead times concluded the quarter at typical levels.
  • Vans experienced a 22% decline in the quarter and was significantly impacted by the brand’s expected 40% decline in wholesale sales in the Americas.

Emerald Holding: Does Onex Exploring A Sale Imply That The Company Has A Limited Upside?

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on Emerald Holding that is creating ripples in the news circuit, courtesy of the exploration endeavors by its predominant shareholder, Onex.
  • Emerald Holding, though operating with a low profile, has been wielding a silent yet significant influence over the events sphere.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

HEICO Corporation: Behind The Scenes Of The Recent Performance & The Wencor Acquisition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • HEICO Corporation managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • These results primarily represent a 12% quarterly consolidated organic net sales growth and the impact of acquisitions.
  • In the quarter, The Flight Support Group’s net sales grew 23% to $405 million, up from $330.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022.

PROS Holdings Acquisition Alert: A Golden Opportunity or a Mirage for Investors?

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on PROS Holdings which has garnered attention due to speculation around a potential sale, as noted in a Reuters report.
  • Despite its significant role and contributions to various industries, including airlines, PROS has encountered notable challenges, struggling to achieve profitability.
  • Thus, the pertinent questions that arise are related to the feasibility of an acquisition of PROS Holdings and the potential premium that early investors might garner from such a transaction.

UScellular’s Exploration of Sale: A Strategic Move Or A Desperate Measure?

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time research report on United States Cellular Corporation (UScellular).
  • In light of recent announcements, the company emerges as a subject of intricate valuation and examination for potential investors and acquisition entities.
  • With the strategic review underway without a definitive completion timetable, it’s crucial for investors to understand the merits and demerits of UScellular as an acquisition target.

Best Buy Co. Inc.: Unpacking the Strategies Yielding Profitability Gains in Membership Programs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Best Buy delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • While absorbing more significant incentive compensation costs than Best Buy saw last year, the company managed to maintain level SG&A costs.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Prodia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Going Digital with Precision


Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Going Digital with Precision

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia is the leading diagnostics company in Indonesia, with over 40% market share as the most trusted brand in the country, given accreditation from the College of American Physicians.
  • The company was a huge beneficiary of all the testing over COVID with the result of a post-pandemic correction but sales should see a strong 2H2023 with more like-for-like comparisons.
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains one of our top healthcare picks in Indonesia, with rising health consciousness driving higher demand for testing. Valuations are extremely attractive versus Indian peers. 

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Huadong Medicine Co Ltd A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) – Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong


ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) – Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance

By Sumeet Singh


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.29) – Be Rational About Biotech Investment, R&D Team Layoffs, Huadong

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have discovered something interesting from the innovative drug evaluations disclosed by the NMPA over the years. It’s recommended to establish rational expectations for the investment return of biopharmaceutical industry.
  • We analyzed the different situations faced by Biotech in IPO/M&A process, so as to help investors make rational judgments. R&D team is likely to be cut regardless of the circumstances.
  • We updated views on Huadong. Its old businesses dragged down valuation. It may need to wait until Huadong delivers better-than-expected sales/profit growth in weight-loss management business before further boosting valuation.

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Most Read: Lasertec Corp, ICICI Securities Ltd, Nickel Asia, Power Grid Corporation Of India, SBI Shinsei Bank, Keiyo Co Ltd, Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings, Kasumigaseki Capital, Ecoeye, SGX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Rebal – Beating a Dead Horse
  • ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles
  • PCOMP Adhoc Index Rebalance: NIKL to Replace UBP in a BIG Move
  • NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry
  • Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
  • DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24
  • Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
  • Ecoeye IPO Preview
  • Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange Lead Exchange-Owned ESG Indexer Growth


Nikkei 225 Rebal – Beating a Dead Horse

By Travis Lundy

  • The September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is tomorrow at the close. This will engender a lot of buying of three names, and a lot of selling of 3 names.  
  • It will also engender a funding trade of nearly ¥460bn. 
  • I am going to beat the dead horse and warn about certain issues with this rebalance.

ICICI Securities Delisting: A Deja Vu of Troubles

By Nimish Maheshwari


PCOMP Adhoc Index Rebalance: NIKL to Replace UBP in a BIG Move

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

By Brian Freitas

  • The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
  • Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
  • The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures & options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.

Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
  • I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
  • Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.

DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, DCM Holdings (3050 JP) announced it would launch a friendly takeover by Tender Offer for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) 
  • This is totally not a surprise. They signed a Business and Capital Alliance in 2017. DCM bought more at a premium last autumn. This takeover was obvious in the long-term.
  • There are enough friendly holders to get this done. Activism would be hard unless it was really cheap, which it does not seem to be, but process wasn’t great. 

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike’s Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
  • Nike’s inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales.
  • Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

By Travis Lundy

  • Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
  • The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
  • This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.

Ecoeye IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecoeye is getting ready to complete its IPO on the KOSDAQ exchange in November. Ecoeye specializes in carbon emission rights related businesses. 
  • The IPO price range is from 28,500 won to 34,800 won per share. The IPO offering amount is from 59.3 billion won to 72.1 billion won. 
  • Established in 2005, Ecoeye makes money through carbon emissions trading and brokerage, carbon reduction business, carbon emissions trading system, and operation consulting. 

Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange Lead Exchange-Owned ESG Indexer Growth

By Kyle Rudden

  • Absolute value of index-linked assets is the ultimate measure of market share, but it misses an important aspect of the ESG-related indexing market – i.e., relative market share growth.
  • A category of ESG index providers that leads vis-à-vis relative growth is exchange-owned ESG index providers, a group which currently accounts for US$46.3 billion in indexed assets.
  • Asian exchange-owned ESG indexers are the clear leaders in that subcategory, with Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and Korea Exchange leading that cohort with double-digit growth.

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Daily Brief Japan: SBI Shinsei Bank, Kasumigaseki Capital, JMDC , Toshiba Corp, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
  • Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.


Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
  • I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
  • Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

By Travis Lundy

  • Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
  • The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
  • This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, CK Infra/Power Assets, Rakuten Bank, Haitong Int’l Sec

By David Blennerhassett


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 29th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 29th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited
  • Victoria – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Hunt Oil – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Disclosure of Management Strategies with Cost of Capital and Stock Price in Mind Is Still Limited

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Regardless of “TSE request,” only 31% of prime market listed companies disclosed “measures to realize management with awareness of cost of capital and stock price” in their corporate governance reports.
  • The lack of ready disclosure measures on companies’ side seems to be the reason why few companies disclosed information, but many of those that did are also poor in content.
  • For companies with large shareholders and low P/B, the parent company has not yet TOB or sold the company, which may be the reason for the delay in disclosure.

Victoria – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Victoria’s ESG as “Weak”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Material” and Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Victoria PLC designs, manufactures and distributes flooring products across the UK, Continental Europe and Australia.

Hunt Oil – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Hunt Oil’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. However, the Environmental pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Hunt Oil Company of Peru LLC, Sucursal del Peru (HOCP) is a wholly owned, indirect subsidiary of Hunt Oil Company, one of the largest privately owned hydrocarbon companies in the US.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns


Homebuilder Sentiment Is Fun for MACRO Tourists, Not for Predicting Returns

By Jeroen Blokland

  • First and foremost, we are not positive about US homebuilders due to the sharp decline in housing market activity caused by the significantly increased mortgage rates.
  • The correlation between the future performance of the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index relative to the broad S&P 500 Index and the level of the NAHB Market Index is ZERO.
  • In addition, there is no correlation between the performance of US homebuilders and CHANGES in the NAHB Market Index.

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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023
  • Bond Market Monitor: Prime Time Continues
  • Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Launch of CORSIA Carbon Credit Futures Market & Other Major Developments


Weekly Wrap – 29 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Tata Steel Ltd
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


Bond Market Monitor: Prime Time Continues

By Warut Promboon

  • Our thesis has not changed even though the Federal Reserve (the Fed) appears to be more hawkish than many investors thought.
  • We expect countries with lagging rate cycles, such as China and Thailand, to suffer capital outflows and rising yields.
  • In Asia, the spotlights remain on Indonesia and India where macroeconomic fundamentals continue to improve.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Launch of CORSIA Carbon Credit Futures Market & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. had a strong quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.43, an increase of 8% over the prior year.
  • In the Exchange segment, net revenues totaled $1.1 billion, up 9% over the prior year.
  • Also, because of these improvements, they have seen a roughly 60% increase in energy volume performed through their ICE Chat platform over the first half of this year.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
  • This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
  • We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare

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