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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.
  • [Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence
  • Topsports (6110 HK):  Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China
  • Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers
  • Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View
  • HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers
  • Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction
  • Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers


Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has been an underperformer among Indian banks since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic due to asset quality issues in its core Group Microfinance portfolio.
  • Bandhan Bank’s leading position in the microfinance sector, strong operating margins, strategic de-risking, self-sustaining capital base, and cheap relative valuations make it a value bet with strong positive re-rating potential.
  • We value Bandhan Bank at 2.1x FY25e P/B in the base case, implying a 44% upside. On the other hand, we also discuss the risks to the thesis in detail.

[Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence

By Pranav Bhavsar


Topsports (6110 HK):  Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK) is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.
  • Nike’s Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter.  During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.
  • The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%. 

Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In the first table, we provide a list of 56 stocks (2.2% of total) which have dividend yields of 7% or more. 
  • The second table is a list of stocks with dividend yields of 7% or more and they are ranked in terms of market cap. 
  • These 25 stocks have an average dividend yield of 9.1%. The second table has 12 financials related stocks, representing 48% of total. 

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.
  • The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.
  • We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • HPE produced significant free cash flow while increasing its revenue, gross margin, as well as earnings per share year over year.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech & Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron’s valuation has reverted vs. Nanya’s.
  • Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.
  • We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.

HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite a challenging market environment, HP increased net revenue, non-GAAP EPS, non-GAAP operating profit, and free cash flow quarter over quarter.
  • With $13.2 billion in net revenue, the company’s annualized revenue was down 10% or 7% in constant currency.
  • Despite not being immune to the end market concerns, these businesses combined produced strong sequential growth in the quarter.

Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

  • After going ex-dividend in June, Water Oasis (1161 HK) corrected and has remained rangebound at the 1.35-1.45 HKD/levels due to negative sentiment on HK/China.
  • We expect FY23 results to be reported in late November/early December. We expect an increase of 19%/85%  in Revenue/PAT with a 16-cent dividend for FY23 (11.4% dividend yield).
  • Stock trades at 7.6x/6.2x PE FY23e/24e, a dividend yield of 11.4%/14% FY23e/24e with 25% of the market capitalization in cash. 

Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Costco delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company reported net income for the 17-week fourth quarter came in at $2.16 billion or $4.86 per diluted share compared to $1.868 billion or $4.20 per diluted share in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.
  • In terms of sales, net sales for the 17-week fourth quarter were $77.43 billion, an increase of 9.4% from $70.76 billion in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.

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Daily Brief Macro: Great Game: McCarthy blinked first and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Great Game: McCarthy blinked first
  • The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!


Great Game: McCarthy blinked first

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • On a tension-filled Saturday, a mere three hours away from a government shutdown, the US Senate passed a continuing resolution ensuring the wheels of the US Government would continue turning for another 45 days.
  • Many expected a drawn-out standoff over GOP’s spending cuts or the border policies.
  • However, the final outcome was not only surprising but raised eyebrows on the GOP’s newfound focus.

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.
  • The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.
  • Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Vedanta Resources, EcoPro Materials, Kasumigaseki Capital, Geopark Ltd, Trigon Metals , Ecopetrol , Corteva and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources
  • Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out
  • UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise
  • Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Mining Monthly: September Edition
  • Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Corteva Inc.: Inside the Launch of Reklemel Active and What It Means for Farmers! – Major Drivers


Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a  peer comparison.

UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise

By Travis Lundy

  • Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)‘s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.  
  • I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn. 
  • But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%. 

Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Geopark’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Mining Monthly: September Edition

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down in September, alongside a pullback across broader markets.
  • Commodities and battery metals held in relatively flat.
  • Sentiment Update Commodity prices remained relatively flat through the month of September, following another flat month in August.

Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Ecopetrol’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Governance score. The company has “Strong” scores for the Environmental and Social pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Corteva Inc.: Inside the Launch of Reklemel Active and What It Means for Farmers! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Corteva, Inc. delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • Pioneer and Brevant achieved double-digit revenue growth in the United States.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Bharat Electronics, Cainiao Smart Logistics, J&T Global Express, FuelCell Energy, Cintas Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd
  • Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
  • J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn
  • FuelCell Energy Inc.: New Commercial Development Initiatives Explained! – Major Drivers
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet
  • Cintas Corporation: Collaboration With Honda & Other Major Developments


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
  • Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
  • Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&O segment before January could lead to another change.

Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
  • Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
  • Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.

J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Global logistics and express delivery service provider J&T Express’ HKEx IPO application has been approved and this insight focuses on new data points from the PHIP filings.
  • SEA segment’s GPM has further declined during 1H2023, however, gross losses of the other two segments have declined significantly resulting in GPM for the company.
  • Our analysis suggests that with falling SEA margins, J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) may not be able to generate operating profits in the medium-term.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we focus on J&T’s improved H123 performance in China and SE Asia
  • How did the company achieve these gains? And do the improvements appear sustainable?
  • We conclude with an updated estimate of J&T’s Enterprise Value: US$9.1 Bn

FuelCell Energy Inc.: New Commercial Development Initiatives Explained! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company reported total revenues of $25.5 million for the quarter.
  • The two latest module exchanges at the plant owned by Korea Southern Power Company and the module exchange at the plant at Trinity College were the main factors behind the increase in service agreement revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.

Cintas Corporation: Collaboration With Honda & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Cintas Corporation managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company’s bottom line reaps the rewards of its robust volume and revenue growth.
  • Besides, the Fire business generated $174.3 million in revenue, with a 14.2% organic revenue growth rate.

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Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Topsports International Holdings, K Car, Zinus, Beijing UBOX Online Technology, S&P 500 INDEX, Water Oasis, Costco Wholesale, Luyuan Group, NagaCorp Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence
  • Topsports (6110 HK):  Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China
  • Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea
  • Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry
  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Signs of Recovery, but Still Making Losses
  • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch
  • Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction
  • Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers
  • Luyuan Group IPO: Likely To Be Priced At The Low-End Of Range As E-Bikes Sales Have Slowed in Asia
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , JSW Infrastructure, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources


[Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence

By Pranav Bhavsar


Topsports (6110 HK):  Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK) is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.
  • Nike’s Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter.  During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.
  • The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%. 

Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In the first table, we provide a list of 56 stocks (2.2% of total) which have dividend yields of 7% or more. 
  • The second table is a list of stocks with dividend yields of 7% or more and they are ranked in terms of market cap. 
  • These 25 stocks have an average dividend yield of 9.1%. The second table has 12 financials related stocks, representing 48% of total. 

Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry

By Sanghyun Park

  • Doosan Robotics has the potential to rise up to ₩104,000 on the listing date. The market cap would reach ₩6.74T, which fulfills the criteria for KOSPI 200 fast entry
  • Based on this calculation, Zinus had the lowest average daily market cap during the previous rebalancing screening period. Therefore, Zinus will be excluded due to the inclusion of Doosan Robotics.
  • KOSPI 200 passive trackers will need to conduct rebalancing trading reflecting this ad-hoc change on the closing price of November 9th.

Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Signs of Recovery, but Still Making Losses

By Clarence Chu

  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology (1741985D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Beijing UBOX Online Technology (UBOX) is an unmanned retail operator (vending machine) in China.
  • We had looked at its past performance earlier. In this note, we look at the updates from its recently filed PHIP. 

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch

By Joe Jasper

  • As discussed in last week’s Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
  • Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
  • We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers

Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

  • After going ex-dividend in June, Water Oasis (1161 HK) corrected and has remained rangebound at the 1.35-1.45 HKD/levels due to negative sentiment on HK/China.
  • We expect FY23 results to be reported in late November/early December. We expect an increase of 19%/85%  in Revenue/PAT with a 16-cent dividend for FY23 (11.4% dividend yield).
  • Stock trades at 7.6x/6.2x PE FY23e/24e, a dividend yield of 11.4%/14% FY23e/24e with 25% of the market capitalization in cash. 

Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Costco delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company reported net income for the 17-week fourth quarter came in at $2.16 billion or $4.86 per diluted share compared to $1.868 billion or $4.20 per diluted share in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.
  • In terms of sales, net sales for the 17-week fourth quarter were $77.43 billion, an increase of 9.4% from $70.76 billion in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.

Luyuan Group IPO: Likely To Be Priced At The Low-End Of Range As E-Bikes Sales Have Slowed in Asia

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Luyuan Group, a pioneer in the e-bike industry in China, set terms for an upcoming IPO. The company offers ~106.7M shares at the expected price range of HK$6.00 to HK$8.00.
  • The IPO price range implies a market cap of roughly HK$3B at the midpoint. Cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe and purchase ~71% of the Offer Shares.
  • Shares will begin trading on the HKSE next week. I believe the IPO will be priced at the low end of the range as e-bikes sales have slowed in Asia. 

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , JSW Infrastructure, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Micron Technology, Hewlett Packard Enterprise , AAC Technologies Holdings, Hewlett Packard Co, IAC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Vertex Technology’s Hybrid Arb
  • Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023
  • Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers
  • Asia HY Monthly – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers
  • IAC/InterActiveCorp: The Crucial Assets Driving Its Financial Growth! – Major Drivers


Vertex Technology’s Hybrid Arb

By David Blennerhassett

  • Temasek-Backed Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP), the first of three SPACs (so far) to list on the SGX, has announced a transaction to buy Taiwanese live-streaming platform, 17Live.  
  • Assuming the deal completes, potentially by year-end, the merged entity would be valued at ~S$1.16bn.
  • All independent shareholders are entitled to redemption rights. That is, you’ll get ~$5 back if redeeming against $4.96/share now. But liquidity is not great. Plus this appears a related-party transaction.

Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off

By Arun George

  • Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with 17LIVE, the top pure-play live streaming platform (by revenue) in Japan and Taiwan combined.
  • Industry data and the financials suggest that 17LIVE does not have a sustainable competitive advantage to translate its position into high earnings quality. 
  • The purchase consideration of 17LIVE in the De-SPAC transaction is S$925.1 million (US$682.2 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this consideration is full.

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.
  • The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.
  • We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.

Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech & Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron’s valuation has reverted vs. Nanya’s.
  • Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.
  • We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • HPE produced significant free cash flow while increasing its revenue, gross margin, as well as earnings per share year over year.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Asia HY Monthly – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite a challenging market environment, HP increased net revenue, non-GAAP EPS, non-GAAP operating profit, and free cash flow quarter over quarter.
  • With $13.2 billion in net revenue, the company’s annualized revenue was down 10% or 7% in constant currency.
  • Despite not being immune to the end market concerns, these businesses combined produced strong sequential growth in the quarter.

IAC/InterActiveCorp: The Crucial Assets Driving Its Financial Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IAC/InterActiveCorp delivered a disappointing set of results as it could not meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company experienced 1% growth in the digital space in June, driven largely by effective performance marketing, and it maintained sessions and traffic across the board for the entire month.
  • IAC is pleased with the location of such assets in the migration and growth plans.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Bharat Electronics, Cainiao Smart Logistics, J&T Global Express, FuelCell Energy, Cintas Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd
  • Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
  • J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn
  • FuelCell Energy Inc.: New Commercial Development Initiatives Explained! – Major Drivers
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet
  • Cintas Corporation: Collaboration With Honda & Other Major Developments


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
  • Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
  • Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&O segment before January could lead to another change.

Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
  • Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
  • Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.

J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Global logistics and express delivery service provider J&T Express’ HKEx IPO application has been approved and this insight focuses on new data points from the PHIP filings.
  • SEA segment’s GPM has further declined during 1H2023, however, gross losses of the other two segments have declined significantly resulting in GPM for the company.
  • Our analysis suggests that with falling SEA margins, J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) may not be able to generate operating profits in the medium-term.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we focus on J&T’s improved H123 performance in China and SE Asia
  • How did the company achieve these gains? And do the improvements appear sustainable?
  • We conclude with an updated estimate of J&T’s Enterprise Value: US$9.1 Bn

FuelCell Energy Inc.: New Commercial Development Initiatives Explained! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FuelCell Energy, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company reported total revenues of $25.5 million for the quarter.
  • The two latest module exchanges at the plant owned by Korea Southern Power Company and the module exchange at the plant at Trinity College were the main factors behind the increase in service agreement revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.

Cintas Corporation: Collaboration With Honda & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Cintas Corporation managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company’s bottom line reaps the rewards of its robust volume and revenue growth.
  • Besides, the Fire business generated $174.3 million in revenue, with a 14.2% organic revenue growth rate.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Hanmi Pharm, Malo Medical Management, Hologic Inc, Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, OSE Immuno, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Cue Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Gap in Response to Disclosures in English Compared to the Growing Presence of Overseas Investors
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope
  • Pre-IPO Malo Medical Management – Profit Model Is Not Mature; Future Expansion Is Worrying
  • Hologic Inc.: Decoding the Reasons Behind the Double-Digit Molecular Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – FDA accepts New Drug Application for ceftobiprole
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics – Maintaining momentum after an active H123
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc: Can The Acquisition Of Decibel Therapeutics Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Cue Health Up For Sale: Tarsadia Pushes for Desperate Sale Amid Stock Plummet!


Gap in Response to Disclosures in English Compared to the Growing Presence of Overseas Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Overseas investors feel that the disclosure of English documents by Japanese companies is slow-paced and the majority of overseas investors are not satisfied with the English disclosure.
  • Without sufficient disclosures in English, it is impossible to conduct a detailed analysis of the portfolio company. This also casts a shadow over engagement.
  • Given the narrowing coverage of sell-side analysts, companies should proactively disclose English-language materials at the earliest possible time. For long-term investors, English-language disclosures such as annual securities reports are also useful.

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

By Tina Banerjee

  • With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.
  • Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.
  • Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.

Pre-IPO Malo Medical Management – Profit Model Is Not Mature; Future Expansion Is Worrying

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Malo’s revenue had good growth, but revenue scale is still small. At the current gross margin level, it would be difficult to generate decent profits considering the large SG&A expenses.
  • Dental care expansion is difficult. Malo would face the challenging such as lack of high-quality dentists and centralized procurement. Both would drag down profits and cash flow.
  • We are not optimistic about Malo’s share price performance after IPO. This industry’s profit mode is not mature. Most of chain dental services providers are still in cash-burning expansion stage.

Hologic Inc.: Decoding the Reasons Behind the Double-Digit Molecular Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic, Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.93 and the total revenue was $984 million.
  • In Mammography, Hologic delivered more gantries in Q3 than in Q1 and significantly fewer than in Q2.

Basilea Pharmaceutica – FDA accepts New Drug Application for ceftobiprole

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea has announced that the US FDA has accepted its New Drug Application (NDA) for ceftobiprole. The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date of 3 April 2024, meaning that Basilea will have a regulatory decision for its lead antibiotic asset in the US in early-Q224, consistent with prior guidance. Supported by three separate Phase III clinical trials, the company is seeking approval for three indications: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB), acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) and community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP). With the bacterial infection market in the US representing a sizeable opportunity, we believe the decision from the FDA could represent a significant catalyst for Basilea.


OSE Immunotherapeutics – Maintaining momentum after an active H123

By Edison Investment Research

OSE Immunotherapeutics (OSE) has announced its H123 results, providing an operational and a financial update. Highlights from the period included positive recommendations for a confirmatory pivotal Phase III trial for lead asset Tedopi in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is on track to commence in 2024. OSE also claimed full rights to its most advanced immuno-inflammation asset, Lusvertikimab (previously being developed in partnership with Servier). Post period, the company reported a positive safety review for Lusvertikimab from the ongoing Phase II trial in ulcerative colitis (UC). Patient enrolment is expected to be completed in Q423, with top-line results in the next few months. OSE also recently announced a €200,000 grant from the French government and Region Pays de la Loire to weave RNA therapeutics into its preclinical R&D engine, representing a new opportunity for the company. At end-June 2023, OSE had a pro-forma gross cash position of €33.6m, which we estimate will provide a runway through to Q424 (H123 cash burn of €11.7m). We value OSE at €311.3m or €14.4 per share, with Tedopi as the primary contributor to this valuation.


Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc: Can The Acquisition Of Decibel Therapeutics Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Regeneron delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, demonstrating progress toward their long-term objective of business growth and revenue diversification.
  • Total revenues saw an 11% increase compared to the previous year’s quarter, primarily driven by collaboration revenues with Sanofi and net product sales of Libtayo, which exhibited impressive growth of 39% and 49%, respectively.
  • Notably, non-EYLEA revenue contributions accounted for 41% of total revenues, marking a significant proportion, the highest in the last decade, excluding contributions from COVID-19 antibodies.

Cue Health Up For Sale: Tarsadia Pushes for Desperate Sale Amid Stock Plummet!

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on Cue Health, a company once lauded for its promise in the diagnostics sector.
  • Amidst diminishing fortunes, the company is under the scrutiny of significant shareholder, Tarsadia Investments.
  • This report aims to dissect the various valuation scenarios underpinning Cue Health, providing a lucid understanding of its investment potential amidst the unfolding drama.

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Daily Brief Financials: Bandhan Bank Ltd, Japan Rental Housing Investment, IP Group PLC, Shriram Transport Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.
  • Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All
  • IP Group – Detailed look at the deeptech portfolio
  • Shriram Finance – Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24


Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has been an underperformer among Indian banks since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic due to asset quality issues in its core Group Microfinance portfolio.
  • Bandhan Bank’s leading position in the microfinance sector, strong operating margins, strategic de-risking, self-sustaining capital base, and cheap relative valuations make it a value bet with strong positive re-rating potential.
  • We value Bandhan Bank at 2.1x FY25e P/B in the base case, implying a 44% upside. On the other hand, we also discuss the risks to the thesis in detail.

Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Midsize residential JREIT Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP) (“DSLIC“) launched a follow-on equity offering to partially fund their recently-announced acquisitions.
  • The primary offer quantity will be 139,047 units and there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 6,953 units.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at the details of this offering and the historical performance of DSLIC’s previous follow-on equity offerings.

IP Group – Detailed look at the deeptech portfolio

By Edison Investment Research

IP Group has built a commendable portfolio of businesses developing breakthrough technologies, with an aggregate value of more than £200m at end-June 2023 (c 16% of IP Group’s total portfolio value), mostly across four key focus areas: applied AI, next-generation networks, human-machine interface and future compute. Importantly, around 90% of the deeptech portfolio (by fair value) has already started to generate revenue. Both of its two most valuable holdings, Featurespace (adaptive behavioural analytics for fraud and financial crime detection) and Garrison Technology (which provides a remote web browser and related hardware) have revenues in the tens of millions sterling and growing quickly.


Shriram Finance – Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Shriram Finance (formerly Shriram Transport Finance) now includes two major subsidiaries in its numbers, in the listed entity, driving up AUM, ROA and net profit.
  • There is strong latent demand in India for pre-owned commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, where SHTF focuses, with a long track record of good profit, ROA, NIM.
  • Underwriting seems strong given stage 3 and stage 2 loan data, and with funding cost improvements, from distribution of liabilities, good scope for profit growth, ROA, NIM.

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Daily Brief South Korea: EcoPro Materials, K Car, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Zinus, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out
  • Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023
  • Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope


Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a  peer comparison.

Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In the first table, we provide a list of 56 stocks (2.2% of total) which have dividend yields of 7% or more. 
  • The second table is a list of stocks with dividend yields of 7% or more and they are ranked in terms of market cap. 
  • These 25 stocks have an average dividend yield of 9.1%. The second table has 12 financials related stocks, representing 48% of total. 

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.
  • The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.
  • We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.

Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry

By Sanghyun Park

  • Doosan Robotics has the potential to rise up to ₩104,000 on the listing date. The market cap would reach ₩6.74T, which fulfills the criteria for KOSPI 200 fast entry
  • Based on this calculation, Zinus had the lowest average daily market cap during the previous rebalancing screening period. Therefore, Zinus will be excluded due to the inclusion of Doosan Robotics.
  • KOSPI 200 passive trackers will need to conduct rebalancing trading reflecting this ad-hoc change on the closing price of November 9th.

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

By Tina Banerjee

  • With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.
  • Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.
  • Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.

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