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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 10
0

Most Read: Bestechnic Shanghai , De Grey Mining, ESR Group , Seven & I Holdings, CK Hutchison Holdings, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, HKBN Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, YG Entertainment, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
  • Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
  • Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs
  • 7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback
  • CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One
  • USTR Hearings on Section 301 China Maritime Dominance – Fees on Chinese Ships
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Agrees to Acquire TPG’s Stake
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels
  • June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
  • We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
  • Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
  • This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
  • Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

7&I (3382) – FY24 Better, FY25 OK, Surprisingly Large Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) reported full-year earnings. The FY2025 guidance looks OK. Not overly exciting. Optically, it falls short, but 7&i guidance includes York only for H1. 
  • The basic outlines of strategy in the Presentation are unchanged from the 6 March strategy report. The company seems convinced an IPO of SEI is a good thing. I’m underwhelmed.
  • The company also announced that it would bring forward ¥600bn of its planned 6-year ¥2trln buyback program, and execute it this year. That’s good. 

CK Hutch (1 HK): Back To Square One

By David Blennerhassett

  • The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political. 
  • Instead, it has thrust the company right into the heart of it. And the share price has now given up all of its initial gains. And then some. 
  • After Panama’s Attorney General recently determined CK Hutchison’s concessions were unconstitutional, the Comptroller-General has now announced that an audit had found “many breaches” of the concession.

USTR Hearings on Section 301 China Maritime Dominance – Fees on Chinese Ships

By Travis Lundy

  • The original issues were discussed in depth in The USTR’s New “Proposed Actions” For Section 301 Investigation on China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors (now unpaywalled). Hearings took place 24-26 March 2025. 
  • The hearings were long, and comments were predictable. Those supporting the measures offered evidence which was simply incorrect. Those against tried. Post-hearing comments were due 2 April. 
  • We don’t yet know what will happen, but if they stay in place, starting 17 April, US exports of grain/pulses, coal, etc will suffer. Imports will see higher costs too.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Agrees to Acquire TPG’s Stake

By Arun George

  • China Mobile (941 HK) has entered a share purchase agreement to acquire TPG’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shares and vendor loan note conversion shares by 28 November.   
  • On completion, TPG will be released from its irrevocable, which has a competing offer clause.  China Mobile’s agreement signals its expectation that I Squared will launch a competing proposal. 
  • The agreement will not change I Squared’s approach as it would not negatively impact regulatory approvals (a key risk) or prevent it from meeting a 50% minimum tendering condition. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Near Short Level; ASE & ChipMOS Spreads Good Short Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +18.9% Premium; Soon at a Good Level to Short the Spread
  • ASE: +6.5% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Trading Range Breakdown
  • ChipMOS: +6.6% Premium; 2% And Higher Good Level to Short the Spread

June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain

By Sanghyun Park

  • June rebalance drops mid-May, goes live post-KOSPI 200 expiry. Back to 100 names—net outflow setup with more deletes than adds. ETFs rebalance into June 12 close.
  • KRX confirmed 10 special entries for June; results likely out in May with Value-Up rebalance. 12 protected names stay. Stocks over 10% weight, like Samsung and SK Hynix, remain.
  • Value-Up disclosure isn’t mandatory yet—rule starts June 2026. But compliant firms get a screening boost. Around 76 spots remain, filled via quant screen after excluding 24 protected names.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

Northbound Flows (1Q2025): BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the 1Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
  • We estimate that the inflows in 1Q2025 were US$1,760 million and holdings were US$307 billion, compared to outflows of US$20 billion in 4Q. 
  • We highlight flows for BYD, Naura Technology, Cmb, Yangtze Power, Weichai Power.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief ESG: Companies May Worked on Raising OP Margin in Minor Ways Without Working on Raising Gross Margins and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies May Worked on Raising OP Margin in Minor Ways Without Working on Raising Gross Margins

Companies May Worked on Raising OP Margin in Minor Ways Without Working on Raising Gross Margins

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Japan’s declining % global GDP and the number of top companies in market capitalization shows that simply boosting profits through yen depreciation left behind the growth speed of global competitors.
  • While many Japanese companies tried to improve profit margins by reducing labor costs and other expenses, few have managed to improve gross profit margins, which relate to their business models.
  • The fact that few companies have taken steps to shift to higher value-added products and services is why the yen rate remains a key factor in stock valuations.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP
  • Why Silver Is Falling?
  • Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes
  • Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too
  • India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists
  • Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)
  • Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound
  • Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The US imposed sweeping 2025 tariffs, including a 27% reciprocal tariff on India, raising average import tariffs from 2.5% to over 15%.
  • Tariffs are expected to raise US consumer prices by 2.3%, cut household income by $3,800 annually, and lower real GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in 2025.
  • Global trade dynamics are shifting. India may see a 50 bps GDP hit, but relatively smaller impact versus peers opens space for strategic realignment with US trade flows.

Why Silver Is Falling?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Silver prices recently plunged 14%, driven by US tariffs, concerns over global trade slowdowns, and reduced industrial demand, overshadowing long-term fundamentals like strong green tech demand.
  • The price drop reflects heightened economic uncertainty, triggered by geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and weak demand forecasts, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver, particularly affecting industrial applications.
  • Despite short-term volatility, silver’s industrial demand remains robust, and long-term supply shortages persist. Tariffs and global trade concerns will continue influencing price fluctuations in the near term.

Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks sank as tariff tensions with China escalated, with major indexes reversing gains amid rare levels of sustained market volatility.
  • Japan gains priority in US tariff talks, but Tokyo warns proposed duties could hurt its auto sector and reduce investment in the US.
  • AVI, holding 2.3% of Rohto, urged the firm to scale back regenerative medicine, citing poor commercialization prospects and plans to publicize its demand.

Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too

By Michael Causton

  • The Japanese fashion e-commerce market is undergoing rapid transformation: while online sales continue to grow, the channel’s share of total fashion sales has fluctuated due to strong in-store performance.
  • Even the best exemplars of effective integration of online and offline and personalised marketing have seen e-commerce share fall as physical store sales have risen faster for many. 
  • Omnichannel models continue to evolve, with great examples of deeper integration of stores and digital through staff activities like blogging and Live Commerce.

India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • Project completions rose to Rs.1.5 trillion in March 2025, surpassing Rs.1.3 trillion in December 2024, but yearly performance lags behind 2023-24 and 2022-23.
  • Private sector led with Rs.675 billion, while central government completed Rs.463 billion, boosted by the Rs.257 billion P-75 Submarines Project finalized in January 2025.
  • Renewable energy dominated completions at Rs.326 billion, with Adani Green’s Rs.65 billion solar projects in Rajasthan enhancing India’s green energy capacity.

Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks

By Andrew Jackson

  • US falters over the day after a strong start with renewed tariff concerns depressing sentiment.
  • Banks and insurance rallied with Treasury yields over the day rising despite the pullback from equities.
  • US / Japan bilateral talks may push the BoJ into action.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 9.8%).
  • Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 9.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.0% of the index) was down 8.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.6% of the index) was down 6.4%.
  • Top 10 Performers: PGTK, GWTI, MVST, NRM, LEV, AZRE, JEV, VIHD, ENG, RUN

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

By Rahul Jain

  • U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
  • Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
  • Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 

Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

By Water Tower Research

  • The forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine “misinformation and lies.”
  • President Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs weakened biopharma further, as the exemption for pharmaceuticals was unclear and eventual tariffs on drug products are now largely expected.
  • The FDA uncertainty and stagflation fears remain an overhang on the industry. 

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week’s Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.
  • A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.
  • Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest
  • Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Park Medi World Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
  • The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the biotech sector.
  • The deal initially presented upside for investors but there’s a portion of its valuation now at risk due to the latest development.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 121.5m shares at HK$8.27 per share, raising HK$1.0bn (US$130m).
  • The company’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 3-4 years driven by its LFP battery products and fall in lithium carbonate prices have helped turn around profitability.
  • However, our analysis on the company’s valuation shows that JZBT’s IPO is expensive and with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, we would remain on the sidelines.

Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd (1860671D CH)  (BYTL) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citic, CBB International.
  • BYTL provides hospitality robotic AI agents, using advanced robotics and AI to enhance customer experiences. Its solutions include physical-interaction robots and AI-driven digitalization systems for streamlined decision-making and operational efficiency.
  • According to the F&S Report, BYTL ranked first globally in 2024 among robotic AI agent companies with multi-layer adaptable robots, leading in concurrent robot operations and total consumers served.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Park Medi World Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Park Medi World (1605334D IN)  is looking to raise at least US$147m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Nuvama, CLSA, DAM Capital and Intensive FS.
  • It is the second largest private hospital chain in North India, with an aggregate bed capacity of 3,000 beds.
  • It the largest private hospital chain in terms of bed capacity in Haryana with 1,600 beds located in the state as of 1H25. 

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Tata Motors, Softbank Group
  • US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington will impose an additional 50% tariff on China effective April 9th, if Beijing does not back down from its 34% retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mr Trump’s post also stated that the US will terminate all talks with China, while commencing negotiations with other countries. Separately, the President told reporters at the White House that he was not looking at a pause on tariffs, but added that “many countries” were seeking negotiations and there would be fair deals in certain cases.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47
  • Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co
  • Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc is selling SK Siltron to cut its 68% debt-to-equity ratio. The sale could reduce borrowings below ₩5T and lower debt ratio to 30-40%.
  • Chey Tae-won’s divorce lawsuit risks his majority stake in SK Inc. Selling Siltron helps raise ₩1T for alimony without touching his SK Inc shares, potentially reducing the holding company discount.
  • SK Inc-SK Square merger is unlikely soon, despite asset sales and preparation on both sides, as SK Square recently reaffirmed no current merger plans. Setting a position now seems premature.

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47

By Arun George

  • On 7 April, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.47, a 26.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While below NTA (implying a P/NTA of 0.92x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. It represents an all-time high. 
  • A binding offer is conditional on due diligence (expected to take six weeks) and Board recommendation. The Board should work to secure a binding offer closer to NTA.   

Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss about SK Inc (034730 KS) which is considering on selling the controlling stake of SK Siltron.
  • If SK is successful in selling 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for about 5 trillion won, it could result in more than 3 trillion won cash inflow for SK Inc. 
  • Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 13.9 trillion won (NAV per share of 192,217 won), representing a 61% upside from current levels.

Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
  • While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
  • The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?
  • NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!
  • Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?
  • Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC
  • Braze Inc: How Are They Demonstrating Resilience in a Dynamic Competitive Landscape?
  • Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam
  • Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?
  • GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!
  • DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?
  • PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?

By Baptista Research

  • Power Integrations, Inc., a company renowned for its high-performance electronic components focused on power conversion, reported its fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a mix of challenges and opportunities.
  • The company’s Q4 revenue reached $105 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year but a sequential decline of 9%.
  • Despite these mixed signals, revenue for 2024 stood at $419 million, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year.

NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • NCR Voyix’s latest earnings offers crucial insights into the company’s strategic position and operational performance over the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported a decline in revenue, notably from its hardware division, aligning with expectations of a challenging market environment.
  • The total revenue stood at $682 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing a significant increase by 75% to $114 million, aided by cost-cutting measures and a focus on recurring revenue streams.

Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?

By Baptista Research

  • Frontdoor’s financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects both achievements and challenges for the company as it navigates a fluctuating market environment.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million compared to the same period last year, alongside a notable rise in gross profit margin by 550 basis points to reach 57%.
  • Net income saw a substantial uptick of 40% to $100 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% to $165 million.

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK’s stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
  • Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
  • Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 

Braze Inc: How Are They Demonstrating Resilience in a Dynamic Competitive Landscape?

By Baptista Research

  • Braze, a customer engagement platform, reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results, showcasing several key developments and financial performance metrics.
  • The company recorded revenue of $160.4 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase and a 5% growth from the previous quarter.
  • This performance highlights the continued high return on investment (ROI) and enduring value of the Braze Customer Engagement Platform, bolstered by effective global team execution.

Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam

By Baptista Research

  • Lululemon Athletica Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, marking another year of growth, while also spotlighting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week, increased by 8% year-over-year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
  • Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16%.

Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Cable One’s recent earnings presented a mixed set of financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2024.
  • The company, while navigating competitive pressures and changes in subscriber programs, managed to demonstrate some resilience in strategies aimed at stabilizing its business.
  • On the positive side, Cable One reported growth in its business broadband revenue by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by rising demand across its carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments.

GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!

By Baptista Research

  • GameStop Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2022 with a noticeable shift toward profitability and efficient operations amidst a challenging retail environment.
  • The company’s transformation over the past couple of years has been a story of significant restructuring and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its financial health and market positioning.
  • A notable positive from the results is GameStop’s turnaround from a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a net income of $48.2 million in the same period of 2022.

DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?

By Baptista Research

  • DoubleVerify, a company providing digital media measurement solutions, concluded 2024 with several notable achievements and a number of challenges that shape both its financial performance and future outlook.
  • Overall, DoubleVerify delivered substantial growth in revenue, achieving a 15% year-over-year increase to $657 million.
  • This growth was driven by significant momentum across its three main revenue streams.

PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

By Baptista Research

  • PVH Corp’s recent earnings reflects a mix of achievements and challenges in the fiscal year 2024 and sets cautious expectations for 2025.
  • The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, surpassed its initial 2024 guidance both in terms of revenue and non-GAAP EPS.
  • However, it faced a decrease in overall revenue compared to previous years, largely attributed to divestitures and external economic factors.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs
  • Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
  • Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds
  • Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession
  • CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate
  • Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy
  • Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

By Phil Rush

  • The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
  • Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
  • An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • President Trump’s radical tariff measures will usher in a new era of greater volatility, slower growth, financial stresses and geopolitical downsides.
  • The coming weeks will be marked by uncertainty as the domestic political pushback in the US interacts unpredictably with retaliation by trading partners and the economic fallout. 
  • In Asia, monetary easing can mitigate only part of the impact. Fiscal policy is needed but is constrained in most of the region, given pre-existing debt and deficits. 

Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
  • Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do –  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
  • Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.

Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

By Warut Promboon

  • President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
  • One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
  • We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.

CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate

By Caixin Global

  • Tariffs / Cover Story: Trump tariffs put global trade system in crisis as countries retaliate and stock markets plummet
  • Legal battle /In Depth: How one acre in Shanghai sparked a 20-year legal battle
  • Stocks /: China markets sink as trade war intensifies

Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The Thai prime minister comfortably survived a vote of no confidence, suggesting that the marriage of convenience holding her coalition government together is still viable for now
  • The parties in the coalition, however, are still engaged in power struggles, causing political and policy instability as well as impede coherent policy for the rest of the term
  • Distracted as it thus is, the government is not well-placed to address the challenges emanating from a more hostile trade environment and weakening domestic fundamentals

Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep

By Priyanka Kishore

  • Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India’s largest export partner
  • Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth
  • Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
  • US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
  • Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
  • Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
  • Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
  • That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

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