All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Motors
  • In the US, the March nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased to 228 k (140 k e / 117 k revised p), albeit the February figure was revised downwards to 117 k (from 151 k). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p).
  • Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p) and 3.8% y-o-y (4.0% e / 4.0% p).

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Medco Energi’s performance remained robust in FY 2024, with the company reporting stable earnings but improved cash flows.
  • FCF was positive and net debt declined, supported by the disposal of Medco’s Vietnamese assets.
  • Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was healthy at 2.3x.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief ECM: Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week. and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind
  • Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: An Updated Comparison with Hansoh
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

Suzuki Motor Placement – Not the Best Time for a US$1.15bn Deal. It Will Be a Long Week.

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
  • While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares have still corrected in line with other auto players.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
  • Suzuki’s goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).

Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Klarna Group, a Swedish fintech company and BNPL provider, filed for an IPO and submitted a registration statement F-1 form with the SEC.
  • The company believes that AI and product diversification will boost profitability in the coming years coupled with aggressive cost-cutting and better underwriting process.
  • However, Klarna delayed its planned IPO due to extreme volatility and Trump’s tariffs, which are a headwind for BNPL players, including Affirm and Klarna.

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: An Updated Comparison with Hansoh

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, had done a comparison between the two.
  • In this note, we looked at the latest results releases from both companies and highlighted granular differences. It is also interesting to compare the relative valuation from a historical perspective.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies IPO – PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH)  is looking to raise US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zenergy is an EV and energy storage system battery manufacturer providing integrated battery solutions, encompassing battery cells, modules, packs and battery management systems dedicated to large-scale applications of electrochemical products.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the IPO valuations.

Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha shot down any merger talks between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Energy, saying they’re just going to funnel Energy’s cash straight into Hanwha Aero via a third-party allotment.
  • These confirm no price manipulation for Hanwha Corp; Hanwha Energy will inject cash into Aero at market value, likely driving bullish short-term price action for both Hanwha Corp and Aero.
  • Despite tighter arb opportunities, doubts remain whether Hanwha Aero can raise the remaining KRW 1.6 trillion given a volatile market and the tight timeline.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff
  • Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
  • MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm
  • Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock
  • Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs
  • Assura in the Crosshairs

HK Merger Arb: Opportunities Amidst the Market Selloff

By Arun George

  • The gross spreads of large HK merger arb situations have increased due to the unfortunate fallout from Trump’s trade war. The HSI closed down 13.2%.
  • We assess the widening spreads of HK’s merger arb situations based on offer structure, preconditions, conditions, and other factors.
  • The deals, ranked in terms of increasing deal risk, are Tam Jai, Soundwill, Vesync, Goldlion, Canvest, ESR, OneConnect, HKBN, and ENN Energy.

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

MitCorp (8058) BIG Buyback – Share Demand Will Help Weather The Storm

By Travis Lundy

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) by way of a secondary offering.
  • With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.
  • If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.

Hong Kong Arbs: (Largely) Immune From Trump Tariffs

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs, I ran a ruler over the fifteen live deals Down Under, and how they may be affected by the Trump Tariffs.
  • This insight canvasses the ongoing Hong Kong arbs and wording surrounding material adverse changes (MACs). Hong Kong MACs are typically less onerous, and lack specificity, versus Aussie arbs.
  • Although the framework exists for an Offeror to enforce a MAC, I’m not aware of any evidence of this occurring under Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code.

Assura in the Crosshairs

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
  • PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
  • The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Chagee (霸王茶姬) Pre-IPO: Very Few Exact Competitors – A Viewpoint on the Ground and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee (霸王茶姬) Pre-IPO: Very Few Exact Competitors – A Viewpoint on the Ground
  • A Pair Trade Between Korean Air and Hanjin Kal
  • Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored
  • ABLBio (298380 KS): Continued License Out Deals and Milestone Payment Realization to Feed Pipeline
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Entering New Territory
  • Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk
  • Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): Siemens Finally Moves onto Biovia’s Territory
  • Haad Thip Meeting (HTC TB)
  • AMS: Growing O&O Segment Contributed to 33% Revenue Growth in 2024 Two New O&O Projects Moving Forward
  • RVPH: M&A Deals Highlight Brilaroxazine Value

Chagee (霸王茶姬) Pre-IPO: Very Few Exact Competitors – A Viewpoint on the Ground

By Ming Lu

  • Chagee is the No. 6 largest teahouse chain in China according to store number.
  • Very few teahouses have a per customer transaction higher than Chagee.
  • We believe Chagee has advantages in the high price market.

A Pair Trade Between Korean Air and Hanjin Kal

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) (go long) and Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) (go short). 
  • In the past three months as well as 12 months, there has been a sharp increase in the gap of Korean Air Lines and Hanjin KAL Corp. 
  • It is uncertain how much longer Hoban Group will maintain its stake in Hanjin Kal. Hoban could reduce its stake in Hanjin Kal but increase its stake in LS Corp. 

Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored

By Rahul Jain

  • Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
  • Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
  • A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt <1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.

ABLBio (298380 KS): Continued License Out Deals and Milestone Payment Realization to Feed Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • ABLBio (298380 KS) announced licensing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) to develop novel treatments for neurodegenerative diseases by utilizing ABL Bio’s blood-brain barrier (BBB) shuttle platform, Grabody-B.
  • ABL Bio is eligible to receive up to £2.075B in research, development, regulatory, and commercialization milestone payments across multiple potential programs. The company will receive tiered royalties on net sales.
  • Last October, ABL Bio completed the manufacturing technology transfer for ABL301, a bispecific antibody containing Grabody-B to treat Parkinson’s disease, to Sanofi and unlocked a milestone payment of $5M.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Entering New Territory

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia‘s 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.
  • The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.
  • GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. 

Nintendo (7974) | Next-Gen Switch 2 Meets Next-Level Margin Risk

By Mark Chadwick

  • Tariff Headwinds: U.S. import tariffs could wipe out hardware margins, potentially costing Nintendo up to ¥95bn in FY3/26 gross profit.
  • Guidance Risk: With bullish consensus expecting ¥450bn in FY3/26 operating profit, upcoming guidance on July 5 may significantly disappoint.
  • Valuation Hinges on Recovery: FY3/27 earnings could rebound to ¥600bn if cycle normalises and tariff risks ease—implying a fair 13x EV/EBIT multiple.

Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): Siemens Finally Moves onto Biovia’s Territory

By Gregory Ramirez

  • Siemens is acquiring Dotmatics, a SaaS provider for laboratory management, for USD 5.1bn. The acquisition, which is seen as expensive, reflects high multiples of 16.5x EV/sales for FY 2025.  
  • This acquisition strengthens Siemens’ position in life sciences by expanding its industrial software offerings. Dotmatics adds a new USD 5.5bn market opportunity, which could grow to USD 11bn.   
  • Siemens’ entry into life sciences may challenge Dassault Systèmes, which currently leads the market with its Biovia and Medidata platforms. Siemens’ growing presence in this sector may intensify competition.

Haad Thip Meeting (HTC TB)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Last week, I had the great pleasure of meeting with Chief Financial Officer Amrit Shrestha and several of his colleagues at Coca-Cola bottler Haad Thip (HTC TB – US$193 million).
  • The company is the exclusive producer and distributor of Coca-Cola products across Thailand’s 14 Southernmost provinces.
  • The stock has performed beautifully over time, though sideways since 2021. It trades at a 9.6x P/E ratio and a 6.4% dividend yield.

AMS: Growing O&O Segment Contributed to 33% Revenue Growth in 2024 Two New O&O Projects Moving Forward

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • With recent approval from state regulators to move forward on planned projects in Bristol, RI and Johnston, RI, the company continues to grow the number of facilities operated under its O&O model, a core objective.
  • In 1Q25, AMS acquired property in Bristol, RI where it expects to construct a linear accelerator facility that would likely begin treating patients in about 18-24 months & AMS anticipates significant synergies within its expanding Rhode Island footprint.
  • We expect these and other potential new projects will likely leverage an ‘asset-light’ approach that includes partnerships to reduce AMS’s upfront capital investment & enable AMS to retain a majority interest in the centers.

RVPH: M&A Deals Highlight Brilaroxazine Value

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
  • The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
  • Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Macro: US vs EU: Worse to Come and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US vs EU: Worse to Come
  • Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy
  • Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare
  • Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?
  • Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World
  • Europe: Buy On Dip
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
  • The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

US vs EU: Worse to Come

By Alastair Newton

  • Policymakers and investors are not fully recognizing the threat posed by the US in response to ‘Liberation Day’.
  • The threat level has increased as ‘transactional Trump’ is replaced by a new president.
  • The new president aims to return the US to a perceived golden era in his mission to ‘make America great again’.

Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • White House said on March 26 that the 25% tariff would be applied to imported passenger vehicles
  • Annexe II, which refers to tariff exclusions, mentions rubber
  • Stellantis halts its Canada, Mexico production

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

By The Commodity Report

  • *YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).
  • The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.
  • “We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from Copenhagen, if I am allowed to say that after a horrendous week in markets.
  • Markets are heading into a tense week as the U.S.-China trade tensions escalate and Europe appears poised to introduce digital tariffs — likely targeting the Magnificent 7 — in response to Trump’s proposed tariff agenda.
  • By late Friday, the U.S. dollar surged sharply, accompanied by early signs of capitulation in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries.

Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World

By Cam Hui

  • If Trump succeeds in his America First policy, the new winners will be America’s  suppliers of labour. The obvious loser under Trump’s win-lose worldview will be the suppliers of capital.
  • The investment environment in an America First world will be riskier. Expect more sovereign defaults and restructurings.
  • The benchmark portfolio under the new regime should be a basket of global assets.

Europe: Buy On Dip

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Markets are correcting globally on the back of Trump’s Liberation Day tariff bombshell. This an opportunity to increase exposure. 
  • Business cycle fundamentals, including the corporate profit upcycle, warrant a buy on European equities. 
  • Value and quality stocks are recommended. Sector bias is towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence before moving into consumer discretionary and industrials later in the year.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
  • U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
  • Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. 

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.6% on the back of Trump’s tariffs and warmer weather forecasts.
  • U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline on 07/April (Mon), hovering around a seven-week low and extending last week’s 5.6% loss.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.97 on 04/Apr from 0.98 on 28/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could fall in face of slumping crude oil prices and concern about slower-than-expected economic growth in the region.
  • Concern about weaker demand cuts fundamentals-related support that could cushion against impact of falling crude oil prices.
  • Concern about more muted demand and expected improvement in base oils supply in coming weeks would contrast with increasingly high base oils margins caused by lower crude oil prices.

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).
  • Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.
  • To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Thanachart Capital, Haad Thip Public and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced
  • Haad Thip Meeting (HTC TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.

Haad Thip Meeting (HTC TB)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Last week, I had the great pleasure of meeting with Chief Financial Officer Amrit Shrestha and several of his colleagues at Coca-Cola bottler Haad Thip (HTC TB – US$193 million).
  • The company is the exclusive producer and distributor of Coca-Cola products across Thailand’s 14 Southernmost provinces.
  • The stock has performed beautifully over time, though sideways since 2021. It trades at a 9.6x P/E ratio and a 6.4% dividend yield.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Australia: De Grey Mining, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
  • U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
  • Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Wonik Ips, Samsung KODEX 200 ETF, Hanjin KAL Corp, ABLBio, Hanwha Aerospace, Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Watch This Friday’s TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance
  • Talk of Deploying Korean Market Stabilization Fund Ramps Up Today
  • A Pair Trade Between Korean Air and Hanjin Kal
  • ABLBio (298380 KS): Continued License Out Deals and Milestone Payment Realization to Feed Pipeline
  • Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering
  • Asian Equities: A Few Genuine Defensives in This Bloodbath

Watch This Friday’s TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance

By Sanghyun Park

  • After the March avg daily market cap screen, Wonik IPS is swapped for Jusung Engineering. Big passive impact expected—Jusung gets 1x ADTV buy flow, Wonik faces 2.6x ADTV sell.
  • Watch for passive flow timing—last rebalance (Oct 11), ISC Co Ltd got kicked, Wonik IPS called up. TIGER split Wonik’s rebalance over two trading days to minimize price impact.
  • The long/short yield was 2.89% on Oct 11, 3.96% over two days. With bigger passive flow impact, TIGER may split the rebalance—enter near Thursday close, exit by Monday afternoon.

Talk of Deploying Korean Market Stabilization Fund Ramps Up Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • This afternoon, local media has been buzzing about the potential deployment of the ₩10T Market Stabilization Fund, with signs pointing to its first inflow into the market in five years.
  • It’s likely to create a supply-demand imbalance, driving significant price action and requiring adjustments to our short-term outlook for the Korean market.
  • Most of the money is expected to flow into KOSPI 200 ETFs, so we should watch for a major passive flow impact during KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June and December.

A Pair Trade Between Korean Air and Hanjin Kal

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) (go long) and Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) (go short). 
  • In the past three months as well as 12 months, there has been a sharp increase in the gap of Korean Air Lines and Hanjin KAL Corp. 
  • It is uncertain how much longer Hoban Group will maintain its stake in Hanjin Kal. Hoban could reduce its stake in Hanjin Kal but increase its stake in LS Corp. 

ABLBio (298380 KS): Continued License Out Deals and Milestone Payment Realization to Feed Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • ABLBio (298380 KS) announced licensing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) to develop novel treatments for neurodegenerative diseases by utilizing ABL Bio’s blood-brain barrier (BBB) shuttle platform, Grabody-B.
  • ABL Bio is eligible to receive up to £2.075B in research, development, regulatory, and commercialization milestone payments across multiple potential programs. The company will receive tiered royalties on net sales.
  • Last October, ABL Bio completed the manufacturing technology transfer for ABL301, a bispecific antibody containing Grabody-B to treat Parkinson’s disease, to Sanofi and unlocked a milestone payment of $5M.

Key Takeaways from the Updated Filing on Hanwha Aero’s Rights Offering

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hanwha shot down any merger talks between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Energy, saying they’re just going to funnel Energy’s cash straight into Hanwha Aero via a third-party allotment.
  • These confirm no price manipulation for Hanwha Corp; Hanwha Energy will inject cash into Aero at market value, likely driving bullish short-term price action for both Hanwha Corp and Aero.
  • Despite tighter arb opportunities, doubts remain whether Hanwha Aero can raise the remaining KRW 1.6 trillion given a volatile market and the tight timeline.

Asian Equities: A Few Genuine Defensives in This Bloodbath

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Tariff turmoil crashed S&P500 by 18% and MSCI Asia ex Japan by 13% over the past couple of weeks. But even amid this carnage, a handful of stocks have appreciated.
  • These “genuine defensives” are predominantly from utilities, telecommunications and consumer staples. HK/China and Korea dominate with one entry from Singapore. They have cheap valuations, stable earnings estimates and revenue visibility.
  • In addition to eleven defensives we highlight, there are other stocks that have appreciated – notably few HK pharmaceutical stocks HK and 18 Indian stocks. They are not cheap, however.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Entering New Territory
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Entering New Territory

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia‘s 4Q2024 is likely just the start of the positive impact of its barbell strategy of enticing new users through affordable products before monetising through premium offerings.
  • The rapid turnaround of the fintech business as it booked its first quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA was a key standout and was front and centre of management results comments.
  • GOTO remains upbeat in its prospects for 2025, providing its first guidance for adjusted EBITDA, and highlighting the positive contribution from fintech and mid-teens growth for ODS. 

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Medco Energi’s performance remained robust in FY 2024, with the company reporting stable earnings but improved cash flows.
  • FCF was positive and net debt declined, supported by the disposal of Medco’s Vietnamese assets.
  • Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was healthy at 2.3x.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Precious Shipping and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs record net institutional inflows in March as sector snaps 5-month losing streak
  • PSL Becomes Uni-Asia Substantial Shareholder; Oceanus Group’s Peter Koh Adds to Stake

Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • White House said on March 26 that the 25% tariff would be applied to imported passenger vehicles
  • Annexe II, which refers to tariff exclusions, mentions rubber
  • Stellantis halts its Canada, Mexico production

REIT Watch – S-REITs record net institutional inflows in March as sector snaps 5-month losing streak

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutional investors rotated into S-REITs with S$26 million net inflows on April 3 amid market volatility.
  • S-REITs ended Q1 2025 with 2.8% total returns, driven by a 5.0% price gain in March.
  • Franklin Resources acquired 5.06% interest in Digital Core REIT, buying 969,800 units at US$0.577 each.

PSL Becomes Uni-Asia Substantial Shareholder; Oceanus Group’s Peter Koh Adds to Stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks with S$76 million inflow, reversing prior S$170 million outflow.
  • 19 companies conducted buybacks totaling S$65 million; DBS Group Holdings led with 730,000 shares at S$45.89 each.
  • Precious Shipping became a substantial shareholder in Uni-Asia Group, raising its stake above 5% through Unity Ventures.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free