Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits.
Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)‘s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)‘s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It’s all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent.
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook & Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook & Co.

The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

By Aki Matsumoto

In the long run, making Oriental Land, which is more profitable, a consolidated subsidiary through TOB would contribute to expanding Keisei’s corporate value.
Keisei’s foreign shareholder ratio is 27.4%. It seems premature for the rotating president to change at once the company’s tradition of maintaining 40-year relationship with Oriental Land as an affiliate.
Keisei should explain how it will develop its relationship with affiliate to increase corporate value, and what its business strategy would be if it were to sell its shareholding instead.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Solid Companies Starting to Rise from the Ashes and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Solid Companies Starting to Rise from the Ashes
GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?
China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – Important Trends in Pharma, Big Discount Sale of Equity, Topchoice

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Solid Companies Starting to Rise from the Ashes

By Eric Wen

China’s innovative drug sector remains a liquidity driven sector, as investible choices are limited, which include Akeso and BeiGene as our BUY ideas.
We also notice positive change in Innovent but opt to keep rating unchanged;
We upgrade BeiGene from SELL to BUY and maintain SELL on RemeGen, Innovent, JUNSHI and ZaiLab. We discontinued coverage on Legend Biotech.

GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

By Patrick Liao

On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.
The “AI” is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based.
GUC’s monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – Important Trends in Pharma, Big Discount Sale of Equity, Topchoice

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We summarized some important opportunities and trends that we think would emerge in the pharmaceutical industry in the future.
Considering the current unfavorable financing situation of Biotech in the domestic primary market, we anticipate that there would be significant discounts in the sale of equity in the future.
Topchoice has not yet out of trouble. Most of its business diversification could end in failure. It is difficult to support high valuation only by one hospital and one region.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Health Care: Akeso Biopharma Inc, Topchoice Medical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Solid Companies Starting to Rise from the Ashes
China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – Important Trends in Pharma, Big Discount Sale of Equity, Topchoice

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Solid Companies Starting to Rise from the Ashes

By Eric Wen

China’s innovative drug sector remains a liquidity driven sector, as investible choices are limited, which include Akeso and BeiGene as our BUY ideas.
We also notice positive change in Innovent but opt to keep rating unchanged;
We upgrade BeiGene from SELL to BUY and maintain SELL on RemeGen, Innovent, JUNSHI and ZaiLab. We discontinued coverage on Legend Biotech.

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.8) – Important Trends in Pharma, Big Discount Sale of Equity, Topchoice

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We summarized some important opportunities and trends that we think would emerge in the pharmaceutical industry in the future.
Considering the current unfavorable financing situation of Biotech in the domestic primary market, we anticipate that there would be significant discounts in the sale of equity in the future.
Topchoice has not yet out of trouble. Most of its business diversification could end in failure. It is difficult to support high valuation only by one hospital and one region.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Consumer: REPT BATTERO Energy, Rakuten Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case
ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case

REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$306 million. Pricing is on 14 December.
In Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on market share losses, high related party revenue, weak outlook, EV battery weak performance, FCF burn, high impairments and receivable financing.

ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Sino-Synergy Hydrogen Energy Technology (9663 HK) and Dekon Food didn’t do much even as other are lining up to try their luck.
On the placements front, Japan and India flows continue like there is no tomorrow.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?
GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?

By Amrutha Raj

Cybertruck was first conceptualized by Elon Musk in 2012. Its design epitomizes the Tesla spirit of achieving jaw-dropping engineering feats. How will it impact Tesla’s financials?
The Cybertruck offers unique value proposition through its eye-catching design while also offering rapid pickup, large towing capacity, and a compelling battery architecture.
Cybertruck is unlikely to affect Tesla’s financial top-line and bottom-line anytime soon. The truck is slated to be cash-flow negative for the next two years.

GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Chinese credit ratings, exports, and imports growth.
Companies mentioned:PDD Holdings (PDD US), Tencent (700 HK), Naver Corp (035420 KS)

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Dec 10

Daily Brief ECM: Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case
Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023
ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero

Rept Battero IPO: The Bear Case

REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$306 million. Pricing is on 14 December.
In Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on market share losses, high related party revenue, weak outlook, EV battery weak performance, FCF burn, high impairments and receivable financing.

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023

By Douglas Kim

In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2023, including the performance of our calls.
The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 76% (16 calls right, 5 calls wrong), slightly below our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.
The average accuracy rate of our calls from 2017 to 2023 is 77%. We made 42 investment calls in 2020, 37 in 2021, 19 in 2022, and 21 in 2023.

ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Sino-Synergy Hydrogen Energy Technology (9663 HK) and Dekon Food didn’t do much even as other are lining up to try their luck.
On the placements front, Japan and India flows continue like there is no tomorrow.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Weiqiao Textile,Tokyo Rakutenchi,Toyo, Chindata
Weekly Deals Digest (10 Dec) – CPMC, Weiqiao, Benefit One, Tokyo Rakutenchi, Eoflow, Rept Battero

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits.
Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)‘s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)‘s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It’s all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent.
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook & Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook & Co.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Weiqiao Textile,Tokyo Rakutenchi,Toyo, Chindata

I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals discussed this week: WashSoul‘s tilt for Perpetual (PPT AU); CPMC (906 HK)‘s SASAC Offer; Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)‘s Offer; and Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP)‘s Tender Offer.
Key updates took place on: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Eoflow (294090 KS), and Chindata Group (CD US).

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Dec) – CPMC, Weiqiao, Benefit One, Tokyo Rakutenchi, Eoflow, Rept Battero

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH) IPO and Denso Corp (6902 JP)‘s US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback.
Event-Driven developments – Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

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Dec 10

Daily Brief South Korea: ASICLAND and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2023

By Douglas Kim

In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2023, including the performance of our calls.
The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 76% (16 calls right, 5 calls wrong), slightly below our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.
The average accuracy rate of our calls from 2017 to 2023 is 77%. We made 42 investment calls in 2020, 37 in 2021, 19 in 2022, and 21 in 2023.

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Dec 10

Most Read: Uber Technologies , AMP Ltd, NTPC Ltd, Kia Corp, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Benefit One Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX
MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum
FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy

Today post-close, life insurer Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced plans to launch a Tender Offer to buy out all minorities in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) at ¥1,800/share.
M3’s Partial (55%) Tender at ¥1,600/share ending next week is obviously a question.
This is GREAT news for M&A in Japan. It’s good for holders of Benefit One and Pasona Group (2168 JP) too.

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities.
That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

Uber Technologies (UBER US), Jabil Circuit (JBL US) and Builders Firstsource (BLDR US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 15 December.
There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber Technologies (UBER US). There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.
We expect Kia Corp (000270 KS) to replace Posco Future M (003670 KS) in the index at the December rebalance.
There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in Kia Corp (000270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of Posco Future M (003670 KS).

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits.
Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)‘s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)‘s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It’s all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent.
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook & Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook & Co.

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Dec 10

Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, DISCO Corp, Rakuten Group , Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank
ECM Weekly (10th Dec 2023) – Toyota, Denso, Rakuten, Evolution, IRCON, REPT, UBTech, Entero
The Goose that Takes Out the Golden Egg Dies. Manager Should Explain How the Goose Can Grow Bigger

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits.
Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)‘s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)‘s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It’s all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent.
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook & Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook & Co.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank