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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges
  • EM Fixed Income: Is better growth worse for EM?
  • Fed Policy Conduct: Diminished Role of Data-Dependent Framework as R* Gains Some Traction
  • Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda
  • Orange Juice Make-or-Break Time & The Copper Breakout
  • The Art of the Trade War: XI WANTS TO HELP MAGA, WILL TRUMP TAKE THE BAIT?
  • Oil futures: Crude higher following modest OPEC+ increase

HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges

By Phil Rush

  • Hawkish inflation and policy rate pricing shifts toward our UK/EA view did not stop US rates frontloading more cuts.
  • We still see markets overpricing easing, with UK inflation expectations stuck above target, and neutral rates high.
  • A break in activity data, especially unemployment, and underlying price/wage inflation, would threaten our view.

EM Fixed Income: Is better growth worse for EM?

By At Any Rate

  • Recent data has shown better-than-expected growth globally, leading to a shift in the macro landscape.
  • The US economy has shown signs of weakness, particularly in the labor market, but overall growth forecasts have been revised upwards.
  • Emerging markets have maintained a positive bias, with inflows steadily coming in, but there are concerns about potential vulnerability in EM currencies and local rates markets if the US growth environment remains strong.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Fed Policy Conduct: Diminished Role of Data-Dependent Framework as R* Gains Some Traction

By Said Desaque

  • Newly-Appointed Fed Governor Miran has shifted his attention of monetary policy conduct away from data dependency towards r*, the neutral real policy rate. Data-dependent policy has been detrimental to credibility. 
  • Governor Miran believes r* will fall due to the impact of President Trump’s policies on inflation, including lower immigration and lighter business regulation, as well as lower structural budget deficits.
  • Stronger-Than-Expected economic data has resulted in some Federal Reserve Bank Presidents cautioning against continued near-term policy easing, citing lingering inflation concerns. Chairman Powell wants policy easing twice more in 2025.

Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda

By At Any Rate

  • China holding large soybean inventories and US soybean exports to China at zero for the 2025-26 marketing year
  • President Trump late in addressing trade issues with China, leaving US farmers and exporters struggling to recapture market share
  • US seeing strong exports of corn and wheat due to competitive prices, with potential exemptions for certain agri products from tariff rates in trade deals

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Orange Juice Make-or-Break Time & The Copper Breakout

By The Commodity Report

  • After the remarkable bull market in frozen orange juice concentrate futures (OJ) between 2022 and 2024, the market topped out during the early days of 2025.
  • Since then, the market corrected 60% from its highs. But for the most part of 2025 the market is actually in a consolidation phase.
  • From a chart perspective, the market offers now an interesting setup

The Art of the Trade War: XI WANTS TO HELP MAGA, WILL TRUMP TAKE THE BAIT?

By David Mudd

  • China and the U.S. are discussing the a potential trillion dollar investment from China to help “Make America Great Again.” China is setting its terms for the investment.
  • China hawks in the Administration have had their wings clipped, while many Congressional hawks remain vocal as Trump drops barriers to technology exports to China.
  • In a sign of U.S. trade policy failure, tariffs on China have not reduced the U.S. trade deficit nor have they had any meaningful impact on China’s exports or economy.

Oil futures: Crude higher following modest OPEC+ increase

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures opened the week higher after OPEC+ over the weekend announced a relatively modest output increase for November, coming in at the low end of expectations.
  • Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.47/b (2011 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $64.53/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.68/b against a previous close of $60.88/b.
  • The production group agreed to add 137,000 bpd to quotas in November, citing “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” for what is now an eighth consecutive monthly rise.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 3rd): Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 3rd): Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): Lite-On Technology, Elite Material, Zhen Ding Technology
  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): VS Industry, KPJ Healthcare, Sime Darby, IHH Healthcare
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 3rd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), NAVER
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Bumrungrad Hospital
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 3rd): TSMC, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Wistron

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 3rd): Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 3rd.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Horizon Robotics, Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile, CCB.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): Lite-On Technology, Elite Material, Zhen Ding Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated short interest was USD26.6bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Lite-On Technology, Elite Material, Zhen Ding Technology, Alchip Technologies, Sinopac Financial, Lite-On Technology, Elite Material, Zhen Ding Technology, Alchip Technologies, Sinopac Financial.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): VS Industry, KPJ Healthcare, Sime Darby, IHH Healthcare

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated short interest is USD398m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in VS Industry, KPJ Healthcare, Sime Darby, IHH Healthcare, Guan Chong.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 3rd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), NAVER

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated holding was USD743.8bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD96mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), NAVER, HANWHA AEROSPACE.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 3rd): Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Bumrungrad Hospital

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Oct 3rd. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.4bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Bumrungrad Hospital, Bangkok Bank, Srisawad, Bangkok Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, Srisawad, Gulf Energy Development.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 3rd): TSMC, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Wistron

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 3rd. The aggregated holding was USD1,352.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,460mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, MediaTek, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Wistron, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Mediatek.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief ECM: LG Electronics India IPO: Attractive Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Electronics India IPO: Attractive Upside
  • LG Electronics India IPO: Leading Player Priced at a Steep Discount ?
  • ECM Weekly (6 October 2025)- Zijin, Myungin, Pateo,Tekscend, Tata Capital, LG India, WeWork, Impact
  • JST Group Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Inflecting into Profitability
  • Pre-IPO Hangzhou Tongshifu Cultural and Creative Group – Potential for Future Growth Is Questionable

LG Electronics India IPO: Attractive Upside

By Douglas Kim

  • After incorporating the company’s FY25 results, we have tweaked our income statement estimates and valuations of LG Electronics India IPO.
  • Our base case valuation is target price of 1,514 INR which is 33% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • It appears that the company wants the IPO to be successful and after much review the company has decided to price the IPO at more attractive levels to new investors. 

LG Electronics India IPO: Leading Player Priced at a Steep Discount ?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) will divest a 15% stake in its 100% subsidiary LG Electronics India (123D IN) through an IPO, raising Rs116 billion (USD 1.3 billion).
  • The IPO pricing implies a valuation well below that of listed Indian peers and appears to overlook the sector’s underlying near term macro demand tailwinds.
  • LGEIL’s 1QFY26 financial performance came in weak, primarily due to a seasonal slowdown in cooling product sales, particularly air conditioners. This follows a strong FY2025.

ECM Weekly (6 October 2025)- Zijin, Myungin, Pateo,Tekscend, Tata Capital, LG India, WeWork, Impact

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, all of the listings this week ended up doing well.
  • On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week in Hong Kong and India, there were no major placements this week.

JST Group Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Inflecting into Profitability

By Nicholas Tan

  • JST Group (1703609D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is China’s largest and most popular e-commerce SaaS ERP provider.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a PHIP update.

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Tongshifu Cultural and Creative Group – Potential for Future Growth Is Questionable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite TONGSHIFU’s leading position through vertically integrated business model, the inherent limitations of the industry are obstacles for further expansion. Performance growth is clearly constrained by the overall market capacity.
  • The “double attack” market pattern makes it more difficult for TONGSHIFU to achieve breakthrough growth within the existing market. Outside of copper-based products, TONGSHIFU hasn’t found a second growth curve.
  • TONGSHIFU’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart/Laopu Gold/Bloks due to the big gap in growth potential/profitability/cashability. However, valuation could be higher than industry average due to leading market position.  

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Political Uncertainty V. AI Boom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Political Uncertainty V. AI Boom
  • Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right
  • China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview – Beauty and the Beast

Ohayo Japan | Political Uncertainty V. AI Boom

By Mark Chadwick

  • US indexes gained over 1% for the week, driven by AI optimism despite a U.S. government shutdown
  • Sanae Takaichi won the LDP presidential election – strong on Japan defence, fiscal spending, growth and immigration controls.  
  • Yaskawa Electric raised its FY 2026 forecast, expecting 48 billion yen in operating income (prev. 43b), and 525 billion yen in sales, surpassing estimates.

Japan Morning Connection: Sakae Takaichi Win Pulls Japan to the Right

By Andrew Jackson

  • No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.
  • She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.
  • Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview – Beauty and the Beast

By Osbert Tang, CFA

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside
  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
  • Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share
  • Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG
  • Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.
  • Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals
  • A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea
  • Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

By Arun George

  • On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
  • The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative. 
  • Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85. 

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
  • Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
  • NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share

By Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG

By Arun George

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

By Venkata D Ravi Kumar Dasari, CFA

  • New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
  • Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
  • Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.

Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals

By David Blennerhassett

  • The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
  • Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
  • The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The reason why the president’s office is considering temporarily easing bank–industry separation is to facilitate funding for the 150T won National Growth Fund.
  • Samsung and SK may form bank-backed JVs to fund AI semis, HBM, and data center projects, enabling flexible capital deployment across the AI semiconductor ecosystem.
  • Chaebol holdings with direct AI exposure could gain smoother access to big-ticket funding, potentially sparking continued aggressive short-term flows around Samsung and SK holdings post-Chuseok.

Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)

By Richard Howe

  • On October 1, 2025, Corteva Biosciences (CTVA) announced that it plans to break up into two public companies.
  • The logic behind the spin-off announcement is that the SpinCo has higher margins and better growth potential.

  • For example, the SpinCo has grown EBITDA at a 16% CAGR since 2020 and has a 26% EBITDA margin.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Macro: Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk, Crypto, and the “Wrong Number” Revolution | New Barbarians Podcast
  • How Miran’s Can Opener Transforms the Fed
  • The Valuation Challenge to Stock Prices

Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk, Crypto, and the “Wrong Number” Revolution | New Barbarians Podcast

By William Mann

  • Strong economic data last week: New home sales above expectations, GDP growth revised up to 3.8%
  • Discussion on the accuracy of economic estimates and its impact on investment decisions
  • Economic data suggesting fewer Fed cuts, affecting short term stock market sentiment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

How Miran’s Can Opener Transforms the Fed

By Cam Hui

  • Miran’s appointment as Fed Governor represents a skilful attempt by the Trump Administration to influence Fed policy
  • His first speech betrays his propensity to pivot from a data-based approach to monetary policy to a politically based less flexible and doctrinal view.
  • If President Trump gets his way and takes over the Fed, the market can look forward to a dogmatic and doctrinally driven Federal Reserve.

The Valuation Challenge to Stock Prices

By Cam Hui

  • While elevated valuations and excess equity allocations pose risks to long-term returns, we see no signs of an imminent U.S. equity market top.
  • The intermediate bull case is supported by both price and fundamental momentum.
  • However, the advance is extended and stock prices could correct at any time.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (October 5) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (October 5)
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Oct)
  • Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Tie-Up with OpenAI Opens the Flood Gates
  • Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely.
  • Primer: Vinfast (VFS US) – Oct 2025
  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In
  • Primer: Fermi (FRMI US) – Oct 2025
  • CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Stimulus Beneficiary
  • Saint Bella (2508 HK): Strong Branding, Secular Demand In Place, 1H25 Results Affirms Growth Story
  • Primer: eFishery (1313998D IJ) – Oct 2025

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (October 5)

By David Mudd

  • Materials, Healthcare and Tech sectors continue to lead the Hong Kong Secular Bull Market higher. The tech sector has been re-rating since Alibaba (9988 HK) announced its AI chip.
  • Momentum, Growth, and Liquidity factors have led the Hong Kong market performance year-to-date.  Southbound flows into the Hong Kong market continue at historically high levels.
  • Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) was rated a BUY by Deutsche Bank with its initial target price of HK$11.  Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage of CaoCao (2643 HK) a BUY.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Oct)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Tie-Up with OpenAI Opens the Flood Gates

By Scott Foster

  • An agreement to supply OpenAI with energy-saving electric power equipment should be accretive to Hitachi’s sales and profits as long as the AI boom continues.
  • Hitachi is also building an “AI Factory” based on Nvidia technology. This should accelerate the growth of Hitachi’s Lumada digital services platform, also boosting sales and profits.
  • Hitachi’s share price jumped 10.3% on the OpenAI news. Data center news flow and AI sentiment now drive the share price. 

Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely.

By Patrick Liao

  • What is happening with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US)?
  • Intel’s stock price has risen about 50% from its April 8 low. However, we have yet to see any tangible progress in its manufacturing technology.  
  • Intel’s stock price has risen about 50% from its April 8 low. However, we have yet to see any tangible progress in its manufacturing technology.  

Primer: Vinfast (VFS US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Severe Financial Distress: Vinfast is operating with deeply negative gross and net margins, leading to significant cash burn and a high degree of uncertainty regarding its path to profitability. The company is critically dependent on the financial support of its parent, Vingroup, and its founder for survival.
  • Ambitious but Risky Global Expansion: The company is pursuing an aggressive and costly expansion strategy, pivoting from a challenging entry into the US and European markets to focus on high-growth potential markets in Asia, such as India and Indonesia. Execution in these highly competitive regions remains a key uncertainty.
  • High-Stakes Bet on an Unproven Brand: While revenue is growing rapidly, this is off a low base and has been achieved through substantial losses. The company faces intense competition from established global automakers and new EV players, and its brand has limited recognition outside of Vietnam, posing a significant hurdle to capturing market share.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
  • At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
  • The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 

Primer: Fermi (FRMI US) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • Fermi is a pre-revenue advanced energy and hyperscaler development company structured as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), planning to build one of the world’s largest data center campuses, Project Matador, with its own dedicated power grid in Texas.
  • The company aims to capitalize on the exponential growth in demand for data centers driven by artificial intelligence, offering an integrated solution of up to 15 million square feet of AI computing space and up to 11 gigawatts of low-carbon, on-demand power.
  • Led by a management team with deep experience in the energy and government sectors, including former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Fermi recently completed a successful IPO, raising approximately $683 million, despite having no revenue-generating operations to date.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Stimulus Beneficiary

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CP ALL is expected to benefit from the government’s copayment stimulus program, set to launch in October, directly through Makro, which supplies mom-and-pop stores and indirectly through 7-Eleven. 
  • The company remains optimistic about a pick-up in growth in 2H2025, driven by promotions in 3Q2025 and government stimulus, along with improving margins driven by an improved product mix. 
  • 7-Eleven remains on track to expand its store network by 700 new outlets in FY2025, is gravitating toward slightly larger stores, allowing an increased number of SKUs. Valuations remain attractive.

Saint Bella (2508 HK): Strong Branding, Secular Demand In Place, 1H25 Results Affirms Growth Story

By Tina Banerjee

  • Saint Bella (2508 HK) achieved 1H25 revenue of RMB 449.5M (up 26% YoY) driven by higher sales from postpartum business (up 25% YoY) as number of postpartum centers increased.
  • The company opened 36 stores in 1H25 and average contract value of postpartum recovery sales at all service brands witnessed rise (Bella Isla saw highest increase, up 36% YoY).
  • With no major growth hurdles visible for Saint Bella, secular demand in place and with consistent capacity additions it is worth to buy the stock at this point of time.

Primer: eFishery (1313998D IJ) – Oct 2025

By αSK

  • eFishery, once a celebrated Indonesian agritech unicorn valued at over USD 1.4 billion, has collapsed following the discovery of a massive financial fraud scandal in late 2024.
  • Investigations revealed that the company had grossly inflated its revenue and user metrics for years, leading to the suspension and arrest of its co-founders and the appointment of interim management to oversee the company’s remnants.
  • The company is now considered commercially unviable in its current form, with investors facing near-total loss and the firm’s future highly uncertain. The scandal serves as a stark cautionary tale regarding corporate governance and due diligence within the regional startup ecosystem.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Thailand: CP ALL PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Stimulus Beneficiary

CP ALL (CPALL TB) – Stimulus Beneficiary

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CP ALL is expected to benefit from the government’s copayment stimulus program, set to launch in October, directly through Makro, which supplies mom-and-pop stores and indirectly through 7-Eleven. 
  • The company remains optimistic about a pick-up in growth in 2H2025, driven by promotions in 3Q2025 and government stimulus, along with improving margins driven by an improved product mix. 
  • 7-Eleven remains on track to expand its store network by 700 new outlets in FY2025, is gravitating toward slightly larger stores, allowing an increased number of SKUs. Valuations remain attractive.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Australia: Predictive Discovery, Macquarie Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals
  • From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals

By David Blennerhassett

  • The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
  • Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
  • The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.
  • Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.
  • Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea

A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The reason why the president’s office is considering temporarily easing bank–industry separation is to facilitate funding for the 150T won National Growth Fund.
  • Samsung and SK may form bank-backed JVs to fund AI semis, HBM, and data center projects, enabling flexible capital deployment across the AI semiconductor ecosystem.
  • Chaebol holdings with direct AI exposure could gain smoother access to big-ticket funding, potentially sparking continued aggressive short-term flows around Samsung and SK holdings post-Chuseok.

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