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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 27
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Ngern Tid Lor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand’s SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.
  • I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Ecopro BM , KakaoBank , Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
  • Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
  • Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Better-Than-Expected 3Q23 Result; Sees 20%+ Annual Revenue Growth

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
  • The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
  • This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
  • Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
  • Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

Increasing Probability of Kakao Corp Losing Its Controlling Shareholding of Kakao Bank

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increasing probability of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) losing its controlling shareholding of KakaoBank (323410 KS).
  • The FSS Chairman Lee Bok-Hyun emphasized that the FSS may punish Kakao Corp for a potential stock manipulation of S.M.Entertainment amid the M&A tender offer process earlier this year.
  • At this point, the higher probability event appears to be a combination of fine and Kakao Corp selling at least 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank to another company.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Better-Than-Expected 3Q23 Result; Sees 20%+ Annual Revenue Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 3Q23, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported record high quarterly revenue of KRW1.03 trillion, driven by successful ramp-up of plant 4 and full-scale operation of plant 1–3.
  • Cumulative CDMO backlog surpassed $11.8B and the company has secured 14 of the global top 20 biopharmaceutical companies as its clients.
  • Encouraged by strong ramp-up of plant 4, Samsung Biologics continues to expect 20%+ revenue growth in 2023. The company targets to complete the construction of plant 5 in April 2025.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Adaro Energy, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future
  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Forging a Healthier Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s numbers made for positive reading with loan growth coming through in productive areas, especially for Kupedes commercial micro-loans but also from its PNM and Pegadaian subsidiaries.
  • The bank maintained its funding costs at highly competitive levels despite rising rates and time deposit growth with NIMs improving due to a better loan mix in micro.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the most direct way to get exposure to greater financial inclusion and the underbanked in Indonesia. Valuations remain attractive with rising ROA and ROE. 

Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief India: Cello World Limited, Bharat Electronics, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Honasa Consumer and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting
  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?
  • Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement

Cello World IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cello World is looking to raise around US$240m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Cello World (CW) is an Indian consumer products company. The firm is a leading company in the consumerware market in India.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
  • According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN) | Troubles at Core?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) seems to be facing problems in its core BPC segment. 
  • Our casual LinkedIn browsing led us to an interesting post on the company and its practices that warrant attention.
  • We have previously highlighted issues with the way the company has managed its Fashion Business, an attack on the BPC business could compound issues further.

Honasa Consumer IPO – RHP Updates – Sales Strong, Slight Margin Improvement

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (HC) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief United States: Newmont Mining, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Ocean Power Technologies, Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, Netgear Inc, HNI Corp, Aspira Women’s Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement
  • SHEN: On the Horizon
  • NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow
  • HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health

Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
  • OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
  • Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

SHEN: On the Horizon

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
  • SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
  • The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR benefited from an increase in demand for premium wireless mesh systems and routers in the third quarter resulting in a non-GAAP profit
  • The return of normalcy should allow NTGR to convert its on hand inventory to cash over the next two quarters. NTGR’s cash balance should continue to rise
  • A softer environment for SMB products forces us to reassess our model with NTGR guiding gross margin down

HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment

By Water Tower Research

  • HNI reports 3Q23 on Tuesday, October 31 before the market opens, with its earnings conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. 
  • We expect 3Q23 non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 on consolidated sales of $713 million. Consensus is $0.63 EPS on consolidated sales of $713 million.
  • In 3Q22, HNI delivered $0.71 in non-GAAP EPS on consolidated sales of $598.8 million.

Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Two Important Announcements from Aspira Women’s Health

By Water Tower Research

  • On October 25, Aspira Women’s Health announced that a poster on its in-development miRNA-based ovarian cancer test was presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Special Conference in Cancer Research: Ovarian Cancer.
  • The poster, titled, “Improving the diagnostic accuracy of an ovarian cancer triage test using a joint miRNA-protein model,” highlighted data showing miRNA’s potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive diagnostic tests.
  • The study showed that the addition of miRNA improved the detection of early-stage ovarian cancers and that diagnostic performance improved even further when using a combination of approaches, including miRNA, proteins, and metadata. 

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief China: J&T Global Express, Li Ning, Cirrus Aircraft and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out
  • Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Li Ning (2331 HK):  Bearish Thesis Playing Out

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Li Ning (2331 HK) is trading down 18% today due to a bad 3Q23 operational date. 
  • Retail sales grew by only mid-single-digit yoy, while same-store-sales recorded a mid-single-digit decline yoy. 
  • Given the operational update, FY23 earnings should be revised down, to likely flat or low-single-digit growth.

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO – Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

By Ethan Aw

  • Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
  • CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Ecopro BM , J&T Global Express, Bharat Electronics, HNI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected
  • Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares
  • J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting
  • HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment

Keisei Electric: Activists Arrive As Expected

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Just as we suspected earlier in the year, there is now talk of an impending investor activism campaign targeting Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP).
  • The activist is Palliser Capital, a multi-strategy fund based in London and run by former employees of Elliott Management, a company well-known for its activist campaigns in Japan.
  • Their proposal is simple and straightforward, requesting for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric’s Oriental Land holding.

Ecopro Innovation Is Selling Ecopro BM Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 October, it was announced that Ecopro Innovation is selling 160k shares of Ecopro BM shares (0.2% of outstanding shares), representing about 32 billion won.
  • Although the percentage of shares is small relative to its outstanding shares, this additional selling is likely to further negatively impact Ecopro BM’s shares in the near term.
  • Ecopro BM’s shares have seen a significant drop in price over the past few months, but its current P/E (87.3x in 2023) and EV/EBITDA (46.9x in 2023) multiples remain unattractive.

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
  • According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.

HNI Corporation – 3Q Preview: Looking for Steady Demand in WF Segment

By Water Tower Research

  • HNI reports 3Q23 on Tuesday, October 31 before the market opens, with its earnings conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. 
  • We expect 3Q23 non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 on consolidated sales of $713 million. Consensus is $0.63 EPS on consolidated sales of $713 million.
  • In 3Q22, HNI delivered $0.71 in non-GAAP EPS on consolidated sales of $598.8 million.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Newmont Mining, Azure Minerals, Adaro Energy, Ocean Power Technologies, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter
  • Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday
  • Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement
  • Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

Newcrest/Newmont – More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

By Travis Lundy

  • Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
  • That suggests a certain lack of “risk taking” by passive managers, increasing today’s trade in NY. 
  • Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 

Gina Can’t “Liontown” SQM’s Bid For Azure

By David Blennerhassett

  • When lithium mining play Azure Minerals (AZS AU) was halted this week “regarding a potential change of control transaction“, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI) was the obvious suitor.
  • This was confirmed this morning with a A$3.52/share Offer, a 44.3% premium to undisturbed, by way of a Scheme. A concurrent conditional off-market takeover at A$3.50/share is also present. 
  • $3.50 is locked in, no matter what. Gina may take her stake up to 19.9%, but it won’t affect the A$3.50 floor. But it may kickstart a competitive bidding situation. 

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Tuesday

By Brian Freitas

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM’s Rinehart-Proof Offer

By Arun George

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc – Contract Award with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies entered a contract with WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement to provide a WAM-V 16 Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) equipped with an integrated quadcopter aerial drone that should help in protecting vital marine species and combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities in critical habitats.
  • OPT and WildAid and Caribbean Law Enforcement are teaming up to use unmanned surface and aerial vehicles to identify, track, and gather information on people who are harming marine life and ecosystems through illegal activities
  • Additionally, the company also received an additional volume order from Sulmara worth $1.6 million, a prominent player in offshore services, of WAMV 16 uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs), making this the largest single order of WAM-Vs to date.

Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 27
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Carly Holdings, ASE Technology Holding , Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, Netgear Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play
  • What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer
  • Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate
  • ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected
  • SHEN: On the Horizon
  • ASEH (3711.TT; ASE.US): Demand Remains Soft in 4Q23F, but ASEH Observes the Recovery Is Broad-Based.
  • NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow

Key Points to Consider at This Stage Regarding the Year-End Ex-Dividend Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • The pivotal question now is the number of these companies that will effectively defer their year-end ex-dividend date to April next year.
  • The most reliable way to accurately confirm this would be to check how many of them will publicly announce the dividend reference date two weeks before the December year-end deadline.
  • This will serve as the most critical indicator in determining whether this year’s year-end flow trading event, the most significant in Korea, will recur.

What To Make Of Hollysys’ Latest Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hollysys (HOLI US), a leading automation control system solutions provider in China, has been subject to at least six indicative Offers since December 2020, ranging from US$15.47/share to $US$25/share. 
  • Yue Xu and Lei Fang, the co-chief operating officers of Hollysys, who previously tabled a NBIO of US$23.00/share in August 2021, have now pitched a US$25/share proposal.
  • What is different this time? >32% of the share registry has banded together to demand changes. That’s dramatically different vs previous Offers.

Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Plans Working, Now Accelerate

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships, and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Carly has attracted larger automotive industry businesses as shareholders, with a direct offering and services to support automotive manufacturers and dealers to generate revenue from car subscriptions. 

ASE’s Results Shows Chip Packaging & Testing Utilization Is Still Low, However Improvement Expected

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASE’s 3Q23 results came in in-line with analyst estimates, and showed gross margin ticking slightly higher QoQ.
  • Semiconductor Assembly, Testing, and Manufacturing (ATM) capacity utilization remains low, in the mid-60’s percent.
  • Management is cautiously optimistic about an improving industry environment into next year, however was more guarded than what we gauged from TSMC or UMC in their recent results.

SHEN: On the Horizon

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SHEN is expanding its network footprint with the acquisition of Horizon Telecom for $385 million in cash and stock.
  • SHEN is purchasing Horizon for the network footprint and the sales ability to capture commercial customers compared to the majority of SHEN’s customers being residential
  • The valuation becomes financially reasonable to understand when considering SHEN is paying approximately $51 thousand per fiber miles

ASEH (3711.TT; ASE.US): Demand Remains Soft in 4Q23F, but ASEH Observes the Recovery Is Broad-Based.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q23F demand recovery will be broad-based thanks to customers’ new product launch.
  • ASEH has observed an increase in rush orders across the board as customers become more cautious about restocking.
  • The DPS payout ratio for 2023F is projected to be 60-65%.

NTGR: Recovery with Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • NTGR benefited from an increase in demand for premium wireless mesh systems and routers in the third quarter resulting in a non-GAAP profit
  • The return of normalcy should allow NTGR to convert its on hand inventory to cash over the next two quarters. NTGR’s cash balance should continue to rise
  • A softer environment for SMB products forces us to reassess our model with NTGR guiding gross margin down

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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