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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Hang Seng Index, Legend Biotech Corp, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Good News Is Good News
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Strong Carvykti Sales in Q2; Indication Expansion Is on the Cards
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Good News Is Good News

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Strong Carvykti Sales in Q2; Indication Expansion Is on the Cards

By Tina Banerjee

  • Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) reported six-fold jump in revenue to $73M in 2Q20, driven by strong uptake of the sole commercialized drug, Carvykti, which generated worldwide revenue of $117M.
  • Label expansion applications have been submitted to the FDA and EMA seeking approval of Carvykti for the earlier treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.
  • Legend Biotech has 11 pipeline programs covering hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. Recent financing activities have fueled the company’s cash balance to $1.5B, which should provide cash runway through 2025.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. AAC Technologies Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Vanke
  4. JSW Infrastructure
  5. Medco Energi

and more…


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Barito Renewables, Selamat Sempurna, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Barito Renewables IPO Trading – Peers Look More Attractive Instead
  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Growing from a High Base
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023


Barito Renewables IPO Trading – Peers Look More Attractive Instead

By Ethan Aw

  • Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end of its IPO range at IDR780/share.
  • Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
  • In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance, had undertaken a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Growing from a High Base

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Selamat Sempurna remains one of the most interesting industrial players in Indonesia, as an auto and heavy equipment components manufacturer, leading the replacement filter market, and exporting to 100 countries. 
  • The company booked growth in sales in 1H2023, despite coming from a high post-COVID base, with margins improving due to lower raw material input prices, without any price rises.
  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) remains confident in the outlook for the rest of the year and expects sales growth to pick up in 2024 to around +15%. Valuations are attractive.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. AAC Technologies Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Vanke
  4. JSW Infrastructure
  5. Medco Energi

and more…


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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Criterium Energy, Warner Bros Discovery , Universal Display, McCormick & Company, Qualys Inc, Pan American Silver, Sunpower Corp, Wayfair Inc Class A, Teladoc Health, Inc., Viavi Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Auctus on Friday – 06/10/2023
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Uncovering the Secrets Behind Their Global Business Success! – Major Drivers
  • Universal Display Corporation: New Launch That Are Transforming the OLED Landscape! – Major Drivers
  • McCormick & Company: A Deep Dive Into Their Double-Digit Sales Growth Streak! – Major Drivers
  • Qualys Inc.: How Deep Learning AI & ML Are About to Shift Cybersecurity Forever! – Major Drivers
  • Pan American Silver – La Colorada mine suspension
  • SunPower Corporation: How Strategic Investments Is Redefining Their Market Share! – Major Drivers
  • Wayfair Inc.: Navigating Through Short-Term Challenges to Achieve Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Teladoc Health Inc.: An Expanded Strategic Partnership With Microsoft & Other Major Developments
  • Viavi Solutions Inc.: New Testing Capabilities for Non-Terrestrial Networks & Other Major Developments


Auctus on Friday – 06/10/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • Calima Energy (CE1 AU); target price of A$0.45 per share: Operating update in Canada – The 3-well Pisces drilling programme has now been completed.
  • 3Q23 production levels continue to be affected by weather related energy cuts and unforeseen work-overs.
  • Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; target price of C$6.40 per share: 3Q23 update – 3Q23 production was 19,961 boe/d.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Uncovering the Secrets Behind Their Global Business Success! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Discovery, Inc. delivered a disappointing set of results as the company could not meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company generated almost $1.7 billion in free cash flow this quarter, and the team anticipates around the same in Q3.
  • Their global direct-to-consumer business was mildly EBITDA positive for the first half of this year and nearly breakeven in the second quarter.

Universal Display Corporation: New Launch That Are Transforming the OLED Landscape! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Universal Display Corporation managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company announced $147 million in revenue, $59 million in operating profit, and $50 million in net income, or $1.04 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2023.
  • Universal Display’s revenue guidance range for the year has been reduced from $560 million to $600 million.

McCormick & Company: A Deep Dive Into Their Double-Digit Sales Growth Streak! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the recent quarter, McCormick showcased mediocre performance with below-par revenues and on-par earnings.
  • In terms of highlights, the company reported constant currency sales growth and noted an improvement in volume performance, excluding China, throughout the year.
  • In the Flavor Solutions segment, McCormick continued its exceptional growth momentum, with the third quarter marking its tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit constant currency sales growth.

Qualys Inc.: How Deep Learning AI & ML Are About to Shift Cybersecurity Forever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Qualys, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • The channel’s share of revenue stayed at 43% from the previous quarter.
  • By geo, their overseas business rose 12%, outpacing the 16% rise in the U.S.

Pan American Silver – La Colorada mine suspension

By Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver (PAAS) announced the temporary suspension of all operating activities at its La Colorada mine in Mexico due to security concerns at the mine site following the concentrate robbery. The company has not yet provided any indication of the potential restart of mining activities. We currently maintain our estimates and valuation, awaiting more clarity on the timing of the restart.


SunPower Corporation: How Strategic Investments Is Redefining Their Market Share! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SunPower Corporation’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • This led to a revision of the 2023 guidance, reflecting market conditions, lower operating expenses, reduced platform investment, and a delay in certain projects.
  • Adjusted revenue grew by 9%, partly offsetting higher product costs with price increases.

Wayfair Inc.: Navigating Through Short-Term Challenges to Achieve Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wayfair Inc. exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • With net revenue down 3% year-over-year in Q2 compared to a category that continues to be down 10% to 20% for widely-tracked estimates like credit card and email receipt data, Wayfair significantly outperformed the competition.
  • Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $128 million due to the revenue strength and significant expense reductions they have made across their entire P&L.

Teladoc Health Inc.: An Expanded Strategic Partnership With Microsoft & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Teladoc managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings with a robust result, characterized by a 10% YoY growth in consolidated revenue and consolidated adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations at $72 million.
  • Notably, the Integrated Care and BetterHelp segments both performed exceptionally well, with the former seeing 5% YoY revenue growth driven by higher enrollment in the chronic care program.
  • BetterHelp, the leading player in mental health services, reported an 18% YoY revenue growth in the second quarter, in line with expectations, emphasizing the sustained demand for mental health services.

Viavi Solutions Inc.: New Testing Capabilities for Non-Terrestrial Networks & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Viavi Solutions Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Although NSE revenue decreased sequentially but increased year over year, it was primarily driven by the company’s NE business sector.
  • Nevertheless, a stronger demand for anti-counterfeiting products helped the fourth quarter’s revenue increase somewhat than anticipated.

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Daily Brief India: Punjab National Bank, Tata Motors Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Punjab National Bank – Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023


Punjab National Bank – Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics.
  • There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)has the lowest RORWA
  • There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers’ even higher, but better returns.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Oct 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. AAC Technologies Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Vanke
  4. JSW Infrastructure
  5. Medco Energi

and more…


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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Inageya Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Aeon (8267) Partial Tender at ¥1610 for Inageya (8182) Aiming for Takeover Next Year
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Aeon’s JPY1,610 Partial Tender Offer


Aeon (8267) Partial Tender at ¥1610 for Inageya (8182) Aiming for Takeover Next Year

By Travis Lundy

  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) agreed in late April to prepare a plan so Aeon would buy 51% this year.
  • They would combine Inageya with 53+%-owned United Super Markets (3222 JP) aiming for a ¥1trln sales supermarket chain in Kanto. That is due end- calendar 2024.
  • There is a partial offer to buy 33+% of Inageya at a small premium, and inadequate price before merging next year. Cross-holders determine pro-ration.

Inageya (8182 JP): Aeon’s JPY1,610 Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) has announced a partial tender offer for Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) to make it a consolidated subsidiary. Aeon flagged this intention on 25 April.
  • The tender offer is for a maximum of 15.7 million shares (33.78% ownership ratio) at JPY1,610, a 23.2% premium to the undisturbed price. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The offer price is reasonable. Longer-term, Aeon aims to make Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Super Markets (3222 JP) by November 2024.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Nextera Energy, China Power International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • NEE & NEP Selloff Prompted by Higher for Longer Rates Sentiment
  • China Power International (2380 HK): Continuing the Turnaround Trend


NEE & NEP Selloff Prompted by Higher for Longer Rates Sentiment

By Pranay Yadav

  • Higher for longer rate regime makes it difficult for NextEra Energy Partners to raise debt to fund high growth forcing a reduction in growth forecasts.
  • Markets have reacted sharply to slashed forecasts with shares of NEP (-52%) & NEE (-22%). Growth is expected to remain lower in the future.
  • NEE has performed markedly better than NEP. This is reflected by analyst price targets. However, NEE’s long-term growth story has stumbled raising investor concerns.

China Power International (2380 HK): Continuing the Turnaround Trend

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Power output for China Power International (2380 HK) is healthy in Jul-Aug, following the solid trend in 1H23. The drop in hydropower has moderated and wind and solar stayed decent.
  • Capacity growth will reach 43% in FY23. With just 7.8% YoY in 1H23, most of the new capacity will be added in 4Q23, accelerating both output and profitability.
  • The parent SPIC’s massive clean energy assets are candidates for potential injection. CPI’s high EPS CAGR of 28.8% means that it well deserves premium valuation multiples. 

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: POSCO Holdings, Geopark Ltd, Medco Energi, Vale and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Exploring the Launch of a Posco Group-Focused ETF: Flow Trading Insights
  • GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): CPO-5 wells back online. Multiple discoveries in Colombia and Ecuador
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Vale – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Exploring the Launch of a Posco Group-Focused ETF: Flow Trading Insights

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX approved the listing of ACE POSCO Group Focus. This fund mirrors the performance of the FnGuide POSCO Group Focus Index. KRX will announce the listing date next week.
  • This index encompasses 6 Posco affiliates and 4 non-Posco stocks. The top 3 constituents, each assigned a 25% weight, are POSCO Holdings, Posco International, and Posco Future M.
  • We should explore various long-short setups for stocks within the local battery sector (long Posco affiliates and short others), starting with the listing of this ACE POSCO Group Focus ETF.

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): CPO-5 wells back online. Multiple discoveries in Colombia and Ecuador

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now back online.
  • Each well is expected to reach 4,000 bbl/d gross production (8,000 bbl/d gross total, 2,400 bbl/d net to GeoPark).
  • The total gross production of both wells could reach 9,000 bbl/d by YE23.

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s H1/23 results were acceptable in our view. The company’s earnings were soft, weighed down by lower O&G selling prices despite higher production volumes. That said, we expect Medco’s earnings to rebound in H2, considering the recent rally in oil prices. Positively, the company’s leverage and liquidity profile remain strong. We believe Medco will be able to accommodate its USD 400-800 mn acquisition in the Middle East without breaching the 2.5x net leverage target.

In addition, we note positively Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara’s (AMMN) successful IPO in July 2023. We note that Medco’s 21% stake in AMMN is worth USD 6.1 bn (based on AMMN’s current market cap of c. USD 29 bn), which is far larger than Medco’s own market cap of USD 2.2 bn.


Vale – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Vale’s ESG as “Adequate”, given its “Adequate” scores for all pillars. Controversies are “Material”, while Disclosure is “Strong”.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Ecoeye and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecoeye IPO Valuation Analysis


Ecoeye IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Ecoeye IPO is 45,421 won per share, representing 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of Ecoeye IPO. The target P/E multiple of 28.8x is based on a 20% premium to the comps’ average valuation multiple.
  • We believe this premium valuation multiple is appropriate given higher sales growth rate and operating margin for Ecoeye as compared to the comps.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, A10 Networks, Datatec Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT): The Advanced Technology Nodes Are Looking at Upside in 2024F
  • ATEN: Order Delays Continue, PT to $15
  • Datatec – Sustained demand in H124


TSMC (2330.TT): The Advanced Technology Nodes Are Looking at Upside in 2024F

By Patrick Liao

  • It is expected that TSMC will have full capacity utilization of 3nm and 5nm technology nodes starting from 1Q24F.
  • Regarding 3nm technology, the EUV mask layer will be reduced.
  • The total number of iPhone 15 units sold in 2023F is expected over 85 million.

ATEN: Order Delays Continue, PT to $15

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN continues to experience challenges with order timing from some of its largest customers. ATEN lowered Q3 revenue forecast after North American service providers delayed their purchases in the quarter
  • ATEN has spent the entire year trying to add more enterprise customers to offset this volatility and, while successful, it was not enough in the third quarter.
  • ATEN is projecting third quarter revenue between $56.5 million and $58.5 million compared to our estimate of $75.3 million.

Datatec – Sustained demand in H124

By Edison Investment Research

In its H124 trading update, Datatec noted that all divisions reported improved performance versus H123. Westcon’s performance was described as excellent, with a strong performance from Logicalis International and a much-improved performance from Logicalis Latin America, although macroeconomic pressures remain in the region. The company continues to see good demand for its solutions and services and is actively managing supply chain challenges to service customers. We maintain our forecasts pending interim results due on 23 October.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Ecoeye and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecoeye IPO Valuation Analysis


Ecoeye IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Ecoeye IPO is 45,421 won per share, representing 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of Ecoeye IPO. The target P/E multiple of 28.8x is based on a 20% premium to the comps’ average valuation multiple.
  • We believe this premium valuation multiple is appropriate given higher sales growth rate and operating margin for Ecoeye as compared to the comps.

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