Smartkarma Daily Briefs

There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&O segment before January could lead to another change.

JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)

When this was launched, it traded more a fair bit on the first day, but then more volume traded than I expected. This could mean a couple of things.
Re-Reading the original doc leaves nuances. The change in management responsibilities this past summer make some holders less certain. It’s complicated.
There have been several blocks traded, and a large short instantiated. And if one has a more conservative estimate at a higher top-end participation, the back end gets uglier.

Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry

By Sanghyun Park

Doosan Robotics has the potential to rise up to ₩104,000 on the listing date. The market cap would reach ₩6.74T, which fulfills the criteria for KOSPI 200 fast entry
Based on this calculation, Zinus had the lowest average daily market cap during the previous rebalancing screening period. Therefore, Zinus will be excluded due to the inclusion of Doosan Robotics.
KOSPI 200 passive trackers will need to conduct rebalancing trading reflecting this ad-hoc change on the closing price of November 9th.

UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise

Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)‘s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.
I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn.
But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%.

Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.

StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

By David Blennerhassett

New World Development (17 HK) nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of NWS Holdings (659 HK) moves gradually forward.
Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)‘s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.

Doosan Robotics IPO Trading – Strong Insti Subscription Rates but Still Feels like a Punt

By Ethan Aw

Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) raised around US$318m in its Korea IPO, after pricing its IPO at the top end of the range at KRW26,000/share.
Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module.
In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR & (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$745 million through listing Kokusai.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case and Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Kokusai is fully valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,890 per share. We would pass on the IPO.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

By Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief ESG: Gap in Response to Disclosures in English Compared to the Growing Presence of Overseas Investors and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Gap in Response to Disclosures in English Compared to the Growing Presence of Overseas Investors
Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Gap in Response to Disclosures in English Compared to the Growing Presence of Overseas Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

Overseas investors feel that the disclosure of English documents by Japanese companies is slow-paced and the majority of overseas investors are not satisfied with the English disclosure.
Without sufficient disclosures in English, it is impossible to conduct a detailed analysis of the portfolio company. This also casts a shadow over engagement.
Given the narrowing coverage of sell-side analysts, companies should proactively disclose English-language materials at the earliest possible time. For long-term investors, English-language disclosures such as annual securities reports are also useful.

Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Geopark’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Ecopetrol’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Governance score. The company has “Strong” scores for the Environmental and Social pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington, Stocks & JPY; Japan Rail Lifting Tourist Pass Prices
Singapore – New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total

Ohayo Japan | Turmoil in Washington, Stocks & JPY; Japan Rail Lifting Tourist Pass Prices

By Mark Chadwick

OVERSEAS: US stocks sink, bond yields surge on hot jobs data. SPX dropped -1.4%
JAPAN: NKY futures continue to decline -1.6% vs cash. JPY volatility as hits 150/$. Weak September sales at Uniqlo; strong US sales for Toyota
JAPAN X – JR companies raising prices for tourist passes another sign that bosses keen to protect ROE

Singapore – New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total

By Daniel Tabbush

New monthly balance sheet is out for Singapore banks, so we have a window on 3Q23 with data through 1 August. Total loans -6.0% YoY worse than -5.5% preceding month.
Trade finance loans are moving well lower. Growth rate is -24% YoY in latest month with negative double digit growth YoY since January.
Fixed deposits are surging, latest month +37% YoY and these higher cost monies are now 50% of total deposits, compared with 37% of total one year ago.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; “Magnificent Seven” Supports to Watch

By Joe Jasper

As discussed in last week’s Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers

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Oct 04

Daily Brief ECM: Vertex Technology’s Hybrid Arb and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Vertex Technology’s Hybrid Arb
Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out
Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off
J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates
Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Signs of Recovery, but Still Making Losses
J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn
Pre-IPO Malo Medical Management – Profit Model Is Not Mature; Future Expansion Is Worrying
Luyuan Group IPO: Likely To Be Priced At The Low-End Of Range As E-Bikes Sales Have Slowed in Asia
J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

Vertex Technology’s Hybrid Arb

By David Blennerhassett

Temasek-Backed Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP), the first of three SPACs (so far) to list on the SGX, has announced a transaction to buy Taiwanese live-streaming platform, 17Live.
Assuming the deal completes, potentially by year-end, the merged entity would be valued at ~S$1.16bn.
All independent shareholders are entitled to redemption rights. That is, you’ll get ~$5 back if redeeming against $4.96/share now. But liquidity is not great. Plus this appears a related-party transaction.

Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out

By Ethan Aw

EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off

By Arun George

Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with 17LIVE, the top pure-play live streaming platform (by revenue) in Japan and Taiwan combined.
Industry data and the financials suggest that 17LIVE does not have a sustainable competitive advantage to translate its position into high earnings quality.
The purchase consideration of 17LIVE in the De-SPAC transaction is S$925.1 million (US$682.2 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this consideration is full.

J&T Global Express IPO: PHIP Updates

Global logistics and express delivery service provider J&T Express’ HKEx IPO application has been approved and this insight focuses on new data points from the PHIP filings.
SEA segment’s GPM has further declined during 1H2023, however, gross losses of the other two segments have declined significantly resulting in GPM for the company.
Our analysis suggests that with falling SEA margins, J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) may not be able to generate operating profits in the medium-term.

Beijing UBOX Online Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Signs of Recovery, but Still Making Losses

By Clarence Chu

Beijing UBOX Online Technology (1741985D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Beijing UBOX Online Technology (UBOX) is an unmanned retail operator (vending machine) in China.
We had looked at its past performance earlier. In this note, we look at the updates from its recently filed PHIP.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 5 | Analysis of H123 Performance | Updated EV Estimate US$9.1 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

In this insight we focus on J&T’s improved H123 performance in China and SE Asia
How did the company achieve these gains? And do the improvements appear sustainable?
We conclude with an updated estimate of J&T’s Enterprise Value: US$9.1 Bn

Pre-IPO Malo Medical Management – Profit Model Is Not Mature; Future Expansion Is Worrying

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Malo’s revenue had good growth, but revenue scale is still small. At the current gross margin level, it would be difficult to generate decent profits considering the large SG&A expenses.
Dental care expansion is difficult. Malo would face the challenging such as lack of high-quality dentists and centralized procurement. Both would drag down profits and cash flow.
We are not optimistic about Malo’s share price performance after IPO. This industry’s profit mode is not mature. Most of chain dental services providers are still in cash-burning expansion stage.

Luyuan Group IPO: Likely To Be Priced At The Low-End Of Range As E-Bikes Sales Have Slowed in Asia

By Andrei Zakharov

Luyuan Group, a pioneer in the e-bike industry in China, set terms for an upcoming IPO. The company offers ~106.7M shares at the expected price range of HK$6.00 to HK$8.00.
The IPO price range implies a market cap of roughly HK$3B at the midpoint. Cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe and purchase ~71% of the Offer Shares.
Shares will begin trading on the HKSE next week. I believe the IPO will be priced at the low end of the range as e-bikes sales have slowed in Asia.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Managed to Grow but Isn’t Sustainable Yet

By Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will look at its PHIP updates.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd
UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise
Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry

Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Historical Post-Offering Performance Does Not Look Good At All

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Midsize residential JREIT Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP) (“DSLIC“) launched a follow-on equity offering to partially fund their recently-announced acquisitions.
The primary offer quantity will be 139,047 units and there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 6,953 units.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the details of this offering and the historical performance of DSLIC’s previous follow-on equity offerings.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two’s Company; Three’s A Crowd

There should be two changes for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March. That could increase to three, but that would take some big price moves from now to January.
Impact on the potential changes is pretty large at over 6 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers. The impact is over 11 days of delivery volume.
Inclusion of Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&O segment before January could lead to another change.

UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise

Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)‘s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.
I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn.
But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%.

Cainiao IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) has filed an application proof to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and could raise US$1bn at a valuation between US$15bn-20bn.
Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) could get Fast Entry to the HSCI and be included in Southbound Stock Connect once the price stabilisation period is complete.
Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion in June. Earlier inclusion will depend on the IPO timing, size and allocation to strategic/cornerstone investors.

Setting up to Target Exclusion Stock Post Doosan Robotics’ KOSPI 200 Fast Entry

By Sanghyun Park

Doosan Robotics has the potential to rise up to ₩104,000 on the listing date. The market cap would reach ₩6.74T, which fulfills the criteria for KOSPI 200 fast entry
Based on this calculation, Zinus had the lowest average daily market cap during the previous rebalancing screening period. Therefore, Zinus will be excluded due to the inclusion of Doosan Robotics.
KOSPI 200 passive trackers will need to conduct rebalancing trading reflecting this ad-hoc change on the closing price of November 9th.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources
Asia HY Monthly – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics
Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , JSW Infrastructure, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Vedanta Resources

Asia HY Monthly – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , JSW Infrastructure, NagaCorp Ltd, Vedanta Resources

China Vanke
JSW Infrastructure
NagaCorp Ltd
Vedanta Resources

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.
[Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence
Topsports (6110 HK): Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China
Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea
Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023
Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers
Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View
HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers
Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction
Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers

Bandhan Bank: Initiating Coverage – Heads Up, Strong Re-Rating Ahead.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has been an underperformer among Indian banks since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic due to asset quality issues in its core Group Microfinance portfolio.
Bandhan Bank’s leading position in the microfinance sector, strong operating margins, strategic de-risking, self-sustaining capital base, and cheap relative valuations make it a value bet with strong positive re-rating potential.
We value Bandhan Bank at 2.1x FY25e P/B in the base case, implying a 44% upside. On the other hand, we also discuss the risks to the thesis in detail.

[Week 5] Namaste India 🙏 | BYD (1211 HK) | Playing Defence

By Pranav Bhavsar

We believe the undertone in the market is bullish, Large Caps are “out of flavour” and hence an L/S (Long/Short) strategy with INDA/SMIN could be an interesting pair to track.
We visited a BYD (1211 HK) showroom in Western India gathering hints of the defensive strategy in India.
Other names discussed include Asian Paints (APNT IN), CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN) and Ebix (EBIX US).

Topsports (6110 HK): Beneficiary Of An Improving Nike China

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Topsports International Holdin (6110 HK) is a pure-play on Nike and Adidas retail sales in China, as it is a leading retail partner of Nike and Adidas in China.
Nike’s Greater China sales grew 12% yoy during the most recent quarter. During the earnings call, Nike management was bullish on the prospects of the China business.
The company currently trades at 13x forward PE, with a forward dividend yielf of 7%.

Alpha Generation Through High Dividend Stocks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

In the first table, we provide a list of 56 stocks (2.2% of total) which have dividend yields of 7% or more.
The second table is a list of stocks with dividend yields of 7% or more and they are ranked in terms of market cap.
These 25 stocks have an average dividend yield of 9.1%. The second table has 12 financials related stocks, representing 48% of total.

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.
The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.
We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Soaring Sales and the Genius Behind Intelligent Edge! – Major Drivers

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
HPE produced significant free cash flow while increasing its revenue, gross margin, as well as earnings per share year over year.
In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Memory Monitor: Micron Outperformed Through Earnings; Nanya Earnings Key for DRAM Bottoming View

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron has Outperperformed Nanya Tech & Hynix since our pre-earnings trade. Micron’s valuation has reverted vs. Nanya’s.
Nanya Tech has recently reported a 15% YoY drop in its latest monthly revenue. Micron just had a US$1.3bn subsidy approved by the Japanese government.
We are now agnostic on the upcoming relative performance between the three Memory names Micron, Nanya Tech, and SK Hynix. Nanya will report its results on October 11th.

HP Inc.: The Collaborative Moves Making The Company A Market Leader! – Major Drivers

Despite a challenging market environment, HP increased net revenue, non-GAAP EPS, non-GAAP operating profit, and free cash flow quarter over quarter.
With $13.2 billion in net revenue, the company’s annualized revenue was down 10% or 7% in constant currency.
Despite not being immune to the end market concerns, these businesses combined produced strong sequential growth in the quarter.

Water Oasis: FY23 Earnings a Preview, Trades at 11% Yield Post Correction

By Sameer Taneja

After going ex-dividend in June, Water Oasis (1161 HK) corrected and has remained rangebound at the 1.35-1.45 HKD/levels due to negative sentiment on HK/China.
We expect FY23 results to be reported in late November/early December. We expect an increase of 19%/85% in Revenue/PAT with a 16-cent dividend for FY23 (11.4% dividend yield).
Stock trades at 7.6x/6.2x PE FY23e/24e, a dividend yield of 11.4%/14% FY23e/24e with 25% of the market capitalization in cash.

Costco Wholesale Corp: Strategies for Consistent Membership Renewals! – Major Drivers

Costco delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
The company reported net income for the 17-week fourth quarter came in at $2.16 billion or $4.86 per diluted share compared to $1.868 billion or $4.20 per diluted share in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.
In terms of sales, net sales for the 17-week fourth quarter were $77.43 billion, an increase of 9.4% from $70.76 billion in the 16-week fourth quarter last year.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Macro: Great Game: McCarthy blinked first and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Great Game: McCarthy blinked first
The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

Great Game: McCarthy blinked first

By Mikkel Rosenvold

On a tension-filled Saturday, a mere three hours away from a government shutdown, the US Senate passed a continuing resolution ensuring the wheels of the US Government would continue turning for another 45 days.
Many expected a drawn-out standoff over GOP’s spending cuts or the border policies.
However, the final outcome was not only surprising but raised eyebrows on the GOP’s newfound focus.

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.
The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.
Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.

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Oct 04

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Vedanta Resources, EcoPro Materials, Kasumigaseki Capital, Geopark Ltd, Trigon Metals , Ecopetrol , Corteva and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources
Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out
UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise
Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Mining Monthly: September Edition
Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Corteva Inc.: Inside the Launch of Reklemel Active and What It Means for Farmers! – Major Drivers

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Vedanta Resources

Ecopro Materials IPO – Peer Comparison – Doesn’t Particularly Stand Out

By Ethan Aw

EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its Korean IPO.
Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

UPDATE: Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving to TOPIX. Forward Earnings/Aggressive Forecast Surprise

Over the weekend I wrote about Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)‘s move to TSE Prime and then move to TOPIX. I noted earnings would be out 3 October.
I talked about the possibility of a surprise. They had revised full-year to end-Sep to ¥2bn. They got ¥2.05bn.
But after growing revenue 79% last year, and growing net profit 101%, this year they expect revs +60% and Net Profit +144%.

Geopark – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Mining Monthly: September Edition

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down in September, alongside a pullback across broader markets.
Commodities and battery metals held in relatively flat.
Sentiment Update Commodity prices remained relatively flat through the month of September, following another flat month in August.

Ecopetrol – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

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