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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: EcoPro Materials, Fadu , Seoul Guarantee Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Preview
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised


Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy

By Sanghyun Park

  • The indicative price band is ₩36,200 to ₩46,000. Accordingly, the market capitalization implied by the price band is ₩2.68T to ₩3.40T.
  • The concern arises as to whether Ecopro Materials can consistently deliver a level of profitability that justifies receiving an equivalent valuation multiple to that of Ecopro BM.
  • The timing of this IPO coincides with the ongoing valuation correction in the local battery sector, making the valuation issue the most critical point to watch in this IPO.

Ecopro Materials IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in November 2023. The IPO price range is from 36,200 won to 46,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 524 billion won to 666 billion won. The expected IPO market cap is from 2.7 trillion won to 3.4 trillion won.
  • The bankers used four companies including CNGR, Posco Future M (003670 KS), L&F, and Cosmo AM&T (005070 KS) as comps for Ecopro Materials.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusion and exclusion candidates for the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023. 
  • The 8 lowest market cap stocks in KOSDAQ 150 are among the main candidates to be excluded from the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
  • Potential inclusions for KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023 include Fadu, GigaVis, Jeio, PhilEnergy, and Manyo Factory.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

By Clarence Chu

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SIA Engineering, StarHub Ltd, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Industrial Trust, TSH Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Tourism & Hospitality stocks poised to benefit from F1 and large scale events in coming months
  • Global Energy Stocks on the Move in Sep, while Telcos Lead Region
  • Wilmar’s Chairman Kuok & QAF MD Lin Kejian Continue to Build Interests
  • REIT Watch – Four industrial S-Reits among best performing in the year to date
  • TSH Resources – Malaysia’s Leading Palm Oil Producer – Debuts on SGX


Tourism & Hospitality stocks poised to benefit from F1 and large scale events in coming months

By Geoff Howie

  • Singapore received over 9 million tourist arrivals from the start of 2023 to end August, a 204.5% year-on-year increase.
  • The 10 most actively traded stocks in the tourism and hospitality sectors have booked net institutional inflows of S$2 million, and returned an average 2.3% total returns in the year-to-date ending 21 Sep.
  • International visitor arrivals to Singapore in August dipped slightly to 31 million in August, due to seasonality and after school holidays.

Global Energy Stocks on the Move in Sep, while Telcos Lead Region

By Geoff Howie

  • Energy stocks have led the global stock market over the past three weeks, while Telecommunication stocks have led the APAC region.
  • In Singapore, the trio of most traded energy stocks Rex Int, Geo Energy Resources and RH Petrogas have generated median gains of 8.2%, with a skew to their average gain given Rex International’s 357% gain from 31 Aug through to 22 Sep.
  • These two Sectors have recently been in play, with the past three weeks have seeing energy stocks lead the global stock market, while telecommunication stocks have led the region.

Wilmar’s Chairman Kuok & QAF MD Lin Kejian Continue to Build Interests

By Geoff Howie

  • Wilmar chairman Kuok, QAF MD Lin Kejian continue to build interests OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 2 million shares at an average price of S$12.67 per share, followed by Olam Group, which bought back 7 million shares at an average price of S$1.08 per share.
  • Between Sep 13 and Sep 15, QAF joint group managing director and executive director Lin Kejian acquired 945,600 shares at an average price of S$0.824 per share.

REIT Watch – Four industrial S-Reits among best performing in the year to date

By Geoff Howie

  • While the iEdge S-Reit Index (benchmark for the S-Reits cluster) returned flat in the year to date, the top 10 performing S-Reits within the benchmark averaged 11.1 per cent total returns.
  • Of these, four were industrial Reits – AIMS Apac Reit (11.2 per cent in total returns), Mapletree Logistics Trust (9.3 per cent), Mapletree Industrial Trust (7.7 per cent), and CapitaLand Ascendas Reit (7.3 per cent).
  • The four industrial Reits averaged 9 per cent in total returns in the year to date and recorded combined net institutional fund inflows of S$18.9 million.

TSH Resources – Malaysia’s Leading Palm Oil Producer – Debuts on SGX

By Geoff Howie

  • TSH Resources – one of Malaysia’s leading plantation groups – made its debut on SGX through a secondary listing.
  • Through its secondary listing, TSH is aiming to strengthen its presence in Singapore and garner interest from investors and traders worldwide with higher visibility.
  • TSH Resources is a producer of Crude Palm Oil and Palm Kernel, with its oil palm plantations located in Malaysia and Indonesia.

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Daily Brief United States: Airbnb , Palantir Technologies , Akamai Technologies, Blackline Inc, Lyft , Monster Beverage, Viatris, Eog Resources, Iridium Communications, Kroger Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers
  • BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers
  • Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers
  • Monster Beverage Corporation: Can The Bang Energy Acquisition Become A Growth Driver? – Major Drivers
  • Viatris Inc.: Unveiling the Power of Popular Brands like Lipitor and Lyrica! – Major Drivers
  • EOG Resources Inc.: Why They’re Bullish on Natural Gas’s Long-Term Prospects! – Major Drivers
  • IRDM: Highlights from Investor Day
  • The Kroger Co.: Will The Partnership With Performance Kitchen Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers


Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting in revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year growth.
  • Net income for the quarter stood at $650 million, reflecting a net income margin of 26%, the highest second-quarter margin ever achieved.
  • Additionally, free cash flow reached $900 million, a 13% increase from the previous year, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow of $3.9 billion and a margin of 43%.

Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies maintained a GAAP operating income in Q2 and achieved GAAP profitability for the quarter.
  • In Q2, Palantir closed deals in the US commercial market in about 30 sectors, including pharmaceuticals, energy, consumer goods, utilities, health care, construction, automotive, transportation infrastructure, etc.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Akamai Technologies, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Akamai is pursuing a completely different approach to cloud computing, making it fully distributed with many more points of presence than typical systems provide.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine, Inc. surpassed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • BlackLine generated $145 million in total revenue in the quarter and $31 million in non-GAAP net profitability.
  • BlackLine also completed its largest middle market transaction ever, driven by the demand for cutting-edge solutions to challenging intracompany workflows.

Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft, Inc. delivered significant results in the quarter.
  • Revenue increased by 3% year over year to $1.021 billion.
  • In July, Lyft saw sustained robust supply trends, with 25% more drivers using Lyft than the previous year and driver hours increasing by nearly 45% year over year.

Monster Beverage Corporation: Can The Bang Energy Acquisition Become A Growth Driver? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monster Beverage Corporation generated below par revenues in the last quarter and its earnings were on par with market expectations.
  • The rise in gross profit as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to price actions, lower freighting expenses, and higher aluminum can costs.
  • Besides that, the company introduced The Beast Unleashed in the quarter.

Viatris Inc.: Unveiling the Power of Popular Brands like Lipitor and Lyrica! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viatris Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • The company exceeded its expectations in the quarter, delivering total revenues of $3.9 billion, or about 2% year-over-year growth on an operational adjusted basis, as well as adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion and free cash flow of $447 million.
  • Tyrvaya’s bridge program was improved during the quarter to boost value per script and produce the greatest quarterly TRx launch.

EOG Resources Inc.: Why They’re Bullish on Natural Gas’s Long-Term Prospects! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • EOG Resources, Inc. managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • This quarter, they emphasized improved drilling performance in the South Powder River Basin, Mowry, and Ohio Utica Combo plays.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

IRDM: Highlights from Investor Day

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The theme of this year’s investor day at Iridium Communications (IRDM) was 2030 and what the Company was looking to achieve between now and then
  • IRDM did not announce any new products. The event was about IRDM’s ability to generate free cash flow that would be used to repurchase shares and increase the cash dividend
  • We, like many others, were looking to hear more about IRDM’s relationship with Qualcomm (QCOM), which was not the case. We are expecting an update from QCOM in January 2024

The Kroger Co.: Will The Partnership With Performance Kitchen Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Kroger Co. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassing the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The total effect on operating profit during the second quarter was somewhat positive, and they expect this to continue for the remainder of the year.
  • Besides these results, their healthcare subsidiary, Kroger Health, entered into a collaborative partnership with Performance Kitchen to provide medically customized meals (MTMs).

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand


Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: JSW Infrastructure, Ajanta Pharma, HDFC Bank, Indika Energy, IREDA and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins
  • [Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?
  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet


JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) will open up for its IPO subscription this week.
  • The company is into ports and maritime infrastructure and is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity.
  • While the company has grown rapidly, the financials do indicate few concerns such as critical dependence/high RPT with JSW group, high debt-high cash balance sheet, forex risk, etc.

Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) reported better-than-expected profitability in Q1FY24, due to softening of raw material prices and normalization of freight rates. EBITDA margin expanded 300bps YoY to 26%.
  • Revenue increased 7% YoY to INR10B, driven by superior execution in branded generics business and lesser price erosion in the U.S. 73% of the total sales came from branded generic.
  • Management maintained mid-teen revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~25% for FY24. Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to growing branded generic business and niche U.S. launches.

[Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The markets closed below our stop of 19,900, primarily driven by weakness in global market sentiments. 
  • For HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) while the street seems to be worried about asset quality, trends in whistle-blower complaints and the timing of the merger also raise alarms.  
  • Other names discussed this week include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) and Godrej Properties (GPL IN).  

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • IREDA (1845911D IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IDBI Capital, SBI Capital and Bob Capital.
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority (IREDA) is a wholly owned Government of India (GoI) enterprise under the administrative control of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). 
  • It is registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit-taking Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFCND-SI), with Infrastructure Finance Company (IFC) status.

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Daily Brief China: Tuhu Car, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Trip.com, Bank of Jiangsu , Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading
  • Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)
  • Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention


Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) raised around US$151m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) (LM) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. The stock was listed in Sep 2022, its lockup on pre-IPO investors will expire on 29th Sep 2023.
  • LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
  • The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August — what do airlines see ahead?
  • Is there really “pent-up” tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don’t think so

Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
  • Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank’s pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
  • Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Yuanxin’s financial performance has not improved and it is still in a state of continuous loss. At such low gross margin level, Yuanxin will find it difficult to make money.
  • As China’s retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down, the challenges Yuanxin has to face would be different from before.
  • When the market pattern has been basically determined, Yuanxin has little chance to break through. Being acquired may be a better outcome. If IPO, valuation would be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Toyo Construction, Tsuruha Holdings, Kosaido and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow
  • YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share
  • Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow

By Travis Lundy

  • Niche Japanese Semiconductor Production Equipment specialist Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) last Thursday announced the TSE approved its late October IPO (with indicative pricing, shares to be sold, and initial prospectus).
  • This insight looks at initial shareholder structure, selling group, post-IPO shareholder structure with index inclusion timing, and follow-on flow possibilities. 
  • At ¥435bn indicative market cap, it will be the largest IPO in Japan since pre-covid, despite coming in a cycle trough. I expect it will be hot. 

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
  • Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
  • This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia

By Michael Causton

  • Tsuruha is the latest retailer to come under attack from an activist investment fund. 
  • As with Seven & I, the company fended off demands to shake up its board, crucially with the support of Aeon, its largest stakeholder.
  • The move will likely lead to some careful reconsideration of how Tsuruha and Aeon could work together and may even lead to a Welcia/Tsuruha merger.

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Robust barriers to entry and generating attractive returns – KOSAIDO Holdings is the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a 70% market share in cremations.
  • The company’s robust economic moat is derived from its dominant market position as the primary operator of crematorium services in central Tokyo.
  • The low likelihood of new entrants due to stringent legal and political barriers further solidifies its competitive advantage. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (Sep 22nd): BYD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Northbound Flows (Sep 22nd): BYD, CATL, Zijin Mining, Mindray
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 22nd): China Mobile, ICBC, Innovent Biologics
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 22nd): Wuapptec Co Ltd, Fuyao Glass Industry, Tianqi Lithium Corporation
  • EQD | HSI WEEKLY Bounce Will Face These Resistance Levels
  • EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY: Has Volatility Already Peaked?
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Innovent Bio, Trip.Com, Nio, Baba, Zto Express, HSBC


Northbound Flows (Sep 22nd): BYD, CATL, Zijin Mining, Mindray

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 22nd.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$47.4 million, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials sectors, and offset by materials, health care.
  • We highlight flows for BYD, CATL, Zijin Mining and Mindray.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 22nd): China Mobile, ICBC, Innovent Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 22nd.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for China Mobile, ICBC and Innovent Biologics.

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 22nd): Wuapptec Co Ltd, Fuyao Glass Industry, Tianqi Lithium Corporation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.7% as of Sep 22nd.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -1.1ppt week on week, led by energy, industrials, communication services and offset by consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Wuapptec Co Ltd, Fuyao Glass Industry, Tianqi Lithium Corporation.

EQD | HSI WEEKLY Bounce Will Face These Resistance Levels

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is approaching WEEKLY OVERSOLD territory, but it is in a clear downtrend, so when it bounces it could be a good occasion to go SHORT. 
  • The trade can be placed between this week and the next 2 weeks, with this week and the next being the most probable time for the reversal to happen.
  • Based on MRM WEEKLY model readings, the target price area where to enter the SHORT trade is 18553-19494.

EQD | VIX Index WEEKLY: Has Volatility Already Peaked?

By Nico Rosti

  • The VIX INDEX last week reversed up and briefly touched 17, it’s OVERBOUGHT according to MRM WEEKLY SHORT model.
  • VIX Index could pull back a bit this week, then go up again, but not much higher than 18. Volatility should end this coming week, or early the following week.
  • WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD MRM reading on global markets suggest an imminent bounce, possibly a lasting MONTHLY bounce – unless all of a sudden the market enters a Bear Market.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Innovent Bio, Trip.Com, Nio, Baba, Zto Express, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 15th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Innovent Bio, Trip.Com, Nio, Baba, Zto Express, HSBC.

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Daily Brief ESG: Ways Should Be Explored to Make Companies More Effective in Disclosing Their Cost of Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Ways Should Be Explored to Make Companies More Effective in Disclosing Their Cost of Capital


Ways Should Be Explored to Make Companies More Effective in Disclosing Their Cost of Capital

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Recognizing the cost of capital and return on capital is an important factor in determining business strategy, but not many companies disclose their cost of capital and specific management vision.
  • In order to increase the effectiveness of disclosure of the cost of capital, we should consider changing the Corporate Governance Code to require disclosure by prime market listed companies.
  • JPX Prime 150 Index, which is based on “equity spreads,” has begun to be calculated, but it has’t attracted much attention since its performance doesn’t differ from that of TOPIX.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23):  Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
  • Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex


The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

By Brian Freitas

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
  • There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
  • A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare

By Arun George


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23):  Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

By Brian Freitas

  • Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
  • Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
  • Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw small net buying for the first week in seven.

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