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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 07
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Korean local sector ETF with the fastest growing AUM is TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, whose AUM has increased more than twice over the past two months.
  • HPSP (403870 KS) will replace Tokai Carbon Korea (064760 KS) by a comfortable margin in the upcoming review in October.
  • From a day trading perspective, this presents a significant Long-Short opportunity. Considering the relatively sizeable passive impact size, setting an entry point more aggressively may not be a bad idea.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

By David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues

Weekly Market Monitor (18) – The Bank Domino Continues

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.
  • Stock market investors living in ‘central bank and earnings lalaland’ underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.
  • Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Liontown Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Estun Automation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto
  • Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

By David Blennerhassett

Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • MIR forecasts China’s industrial robot market growth to accelerate to ~12% y/y in 2023 and will sustain at double digit y/y for the next several years.
  • Management sees order growth back to normal in Mar and Apr. 
  • Industrial robot sales volume is expected to increase to ~25K in 2023, growing by ~45% y/y. 

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May 07
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tata Technologies, Tokai Carbon Korea, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, ACM Research, Chipmos Technologies, Tencent, Acer Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case
  • A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?
  • [ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent
  • ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient
  • ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia
  • Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

Tata Technologies IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D (engineering research and development) service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
  • In Tata Technologies IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on below-peer revenue growth, high contract assets, growth reliant on VinFast, mid-tier profitability, and high attrition rates.   

A Long Short Trading Event Likely to Have a High Hit Rate: HPSP & TCK

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Korean local sector ETF with the fastest growing AUM is TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, whose AUM has increased more than twice over the past two months.
  • HPSP (403870 KS) will replace Tokai Carbon Korea (064760 KS) by a comfortable margin in the upcoming review in October.
  • From a day trading perspective, this presents a significant Long-Short opportunity. Considering the relatively sizeable passive impact size, setting an entry point more aggressively may not be a bad idea.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Peak Rates?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent

By Shawn Yang

  • ACMR reported C1Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT and non-IFRS net profit (2.8%), 42% and 35% vs. our est., and in-line, and positive vs. negative, respectively. 
  • We estimate ACMR’s China wafer clean/ECD share was 11%/45%~ in 1Q23, +4/28ppts YoY, while guidance implies 45%/50%~ in 4Q23, respectively; 
  • We maintain BUY and US$ 30 TP, implying 2.0x FY24 EV/Sales

ChipMOS Industry View: Display Downturn Rebounding, Memory Delayed, Guidance Proving Prescient

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Chipmos Technologies (8150 TT) reported results last week, beating expectations and showing an increase in capacity utilization QoQ.
  • The company reported notable strength in Display Driver related demand, and capacity utilization for the segment may have bottomed back in 3Q22.
  • Memory is expected to have a delayed recovery according to ChipMOS, potentially coming in 3Q23. Adjusted our model — We continue to believe ChipMOS is cheap through the cycle.

ECM Weekly (7th May 2023) – Mankind, Nexus REIT, Pertamina Hulu, Growatt, DXN, Giant Biogene, Ventia

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • Nexus Select Trust will open books for India’s first Retail REIT, just as the first major India IPO for the year, Mankind Pharma seeks to list.
  • There was only Ventia (VNT AU) placement during the week, along with Giant Biogene Holding (2367 HK) lockup expiry.

Acer Q1’23 Revenue NT$52.46 Billion, -12% QoQ, -33% YoY.

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 was Acer’s fifth consecutive quarter of sequentially declining revenues
  • Called Q1’23 the trough but no specific guidance on the current quarter
  • Chromebook sales surged 44.4% QoQ. What was the reason for this?

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Estun Automation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto
  • Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

By David Blennerhassett

Estun Is on Track of Achieving Its Sales Target

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • MIR forecasts China’s industrial robot market growth to accelerate to ~12% y/y in 2023 and will sustain at double digit y/y for the next several years.
  • Management sees order growth back to normal in Mar and Apr. 
  • Industrial robot sales volume is expected to increase to ~25K in 2023, growing by ~45% y/y. 

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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May 07
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, Lifetech Scientific and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Portfolio Expansion Ensures Continued Profitable Growth
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China’s Core Assets, Lifetech

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Portfolio Expansion Ensures Continued Profitable Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) recorded 19% YoY revenue growth in H1FY23, driven by the growth of network of prescriber, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions of Scenesse.  
  • In March, Clinuvel announced the test launch of the first dermatocosmetic product Cyacêlle, a polychromatic screen, formulated to protect skin against ultraviolet A & B and high-energy visible lights.
  • Clinuvel has published encouraging initial readouts of the DNA repair programs. In March 2023, the company has initiated Prénumbra Instant trial in acute ischemic stroke patients.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5)- 2nd Wave of COVID, Valuation Logic of China’s Core Assets, Lifetech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Many people have begun to pay attention to whether there would be a second wave of COVID-19 in China. We think it is necessary to share our views.
  • The overvaluation or undervaluation of China’s core assets cannot be explained solely by classic valuation models such as PE/PB/DCF, but rather by considering the deep meaning represented by the companies.
  • Lifetech’s future growth space depend more on the performance of pacemakers and IBS, but they are facing different challenges. Therefore, we recommend short-term trade rather than long term hold.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro BM Co Ltd, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd, BNC Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Xcopri US Sales Doubled in 2022; More Stream Still Left
  • BNC Korea (256840 KS): Margin Pressure; Base Business Faces Regulatory Risk; COVID Drug in Doldrum

Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM

By Douglas Kim

  • It was recently reported that Choi Mun-Ho (CEO of Ecopro BM) sold 2,000 shares of Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) at 254,000 won per share.
  • It was also recently announced that Eroom T&C, the family company of Lee Dong-Chae, the chairman of Ecopro Group, also sold shares of Ecopro BM.
  • Recent selling of Ecopro BM shares by CEO Choi Mun-Ho and Ecopro affiliate Eroom T&C are negative signs on the Ecopro BM. Lofty valuations are also negative on Ecopro BM. 

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Xcopri US Sales Doubled in 2022; More Stream Still Left

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 2022, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) recorded Xcopri U.S. revenue of KRW169B, up 116% YoY. This year, the company expects to secure Xcopri sales of ~KRW300B in U.S.
  • Thus far, Xcopri has been launched in 15 countries in Europe. The company expects to launched Xcopri in eight more countries in Europe this year.
  • By 2025, SKBP plans to submit sNDA for cenobamate in primary generalized tonic-clonic (PGTC) seizures and pediatric patients, and carisbamate for orphan pediatric epilepsy.

BNC Korea (256840 KS): Margin Pressure; Base Business Faces Regulatory Risk; COVID Drug in Doldrum

By Tina Banerjee

  • During 2022, BNC Korea (256840 KS) reported gross profit margin of 48.3%, lower than 51.9% reported in 2021, as increasing competition is leading to price erosion of botulinum toxin products.
  • In March 2023, prosecutors have indicted BNC Korea for allegedly selling botulinum toxin injections to exporters without the approval of the MFDS from December 2015 to December 2021.
  • With the pandemic on a downward trend for more than a year now, we are skeptical about BNC Korea’s in-licensed COVID-19 drug candidate for a milestone payment of $15M.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief India: Go Air Limited, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Go Airlines (India) Limited- What’s at Stake?
  • Weekly Wrap – 05 May 2023

Go Airlines (India) Limited- What’s at Stake?

By Nitin Mangal

  • Go Air Limited (GO IN)‘s resistance to put its operational woes aside, has come to an end as the company has filed for insolvency.
  • In our previous IPO insight, Go Air IPO- In Search Of Smooth Landing we had highlighted several issues that were haunting the company, including the Pratt and Whitney trouble.
  • Now that the company has filed for insolvency, the search of smooth landing extends to the shareholders and the lenders.

Weekly Wrap – 05 May 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Azure Power Global Ltd
  3. Pakuwon Jati
  4. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…

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May 06
0

Daily Brief United States: Advanced Micro Devices, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: What Is Its True Moat Source? – Key Drivers

AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
  • Prompted by the bear market rally in

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: What Is Its True Moat Source? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a successful Q4 for Cleveland-Cliffs as the company managed an all-around beat with lower-than-expected losses.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs supplies over 7 million tons of steel to the automotive industry, including 5 million tons of direct sales and over 2 million tons of indirect sales.
  • With typical volumes of 5 million tons per year, the company expects its full-year 2023 carbon flat-rolled steel selling price to increase to $1,415 per net ton, a $115 per net ton increase year over year.

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