Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), a small bank focusing on rural and small business lending, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Jilin Jiutai was initially suspended on the 12th March. Then on the 31st March, it indefinitely postponed its FY24 results. The share price is down 61% in the past year.
My guess is that Jilin Province Trust will put Jilin Jiutai out its misery via an Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption. Pricing? Perhaps HK$0.80/share.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup – Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

By Sumeet Singh

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market in 2023, with a market share of 6.8%
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

By Nico Rosti

In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.

Tencent/Netease: One Game for Netease in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the April batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
While Netease received one game approval for its domestic game, Tencent received an approval for an imported game.

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings – The Pain Points and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers.
There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.
In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Wanda sells hotel business to Tencent-backed firm for $347M, indicating a strategic shift in their business operations.
Keppel raises $1.5B for data centre, education funds, and urban renewal, showing a focus on diverse investments.
Cushman & Wakefield appoints Matthew Bouw as APAC CEO for EMEA, highlighting leadership changes in the real estate industry.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sunac China
US President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Mr Trump called for “pre-emptive cuts” in interest rates, stating that “there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates now”.
The latest salvo came after White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that the Trump administration was studying whether it could fire Mr Powell. Mr Trump also told reporters on Friday that Mr Powell would resign if the President asked him to.

Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO – Steady Outlook Amid FX Pressures

By Troy Wong

Hi-Think Technology International (HT) is looking to raise at least US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
HT is a leading Chinese provider of digital intelligence software technology services and solutions, focusing on serving integration customers in Japan, particularly customers in the civil and financial sectors.
Due to significant depreciation of the JPY against the RMB, HT’s 9M24 sales growth and margins were negatively impacted.

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Apr 23

Most Read: Northern Star Resources, Sanrio, GMO Internet, Hanwha Aerospace, Swiggy, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Electronics, LG Energy Solution, IHI Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Hanwha Aero: Base Case Is the Raise Goes Through
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer
Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares
IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

By Travis Lundy

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Hanwha Aero: Base Case Is the Raise Goes Through

By Sanghyun Park

FSS has quietly greenlit Hanwha Aero’s raise — current pushback is just optics, with defense being too strategic for regulators to risk sending the wrong signal.
Hanwha Aero’s second updated filing should check the FSS box, and Hanwha Energy swapping cash for equity gives regulators cover to bless the deal without catching heat.
Base case is the raise goes through — trade the window between the amended filing and effective date, and shorts can still join the deal if they cover in time.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy

On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer

By Arun George

In response to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s revised JPY5,400 offer, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) has asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) if it intends to revise its terms.
Minebea is reviewing its offer and has disclosed additional irrevocables from the founder’s family and MUFG. Total irrevocables represent a 15.83% ownership ratio.
On April 22, Yageo issued a public letter to change the narrative regarding the Board’s concerns. There is an increasing likelihood that Minebea will return with a revised offer.

Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares

By Sanghyun Park

With a $2B deal expected, LG Chem will likely issue before end June as the 2023 EB’s put date nears and redemption pressure builds amid strained financials.
Two years ago, hedge shorting spiked post-issuance and post-exchange start, but price impact was mild—only 3% and 6% drops—likely due to strong sector sentiment then.
Sector sentiment’s turned sharply, so more aggressive price action is likely post-EB announcement. Timing is tricky, but the setup’s worth watching closely.

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.
IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Industrials: IHI Corp, Spindex Industries, Danish Power, Shilchar Technologies, Furukawa Co Ltd, Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company
The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave
The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth
Furukawa (5715 JP) – Course-Correcting for Growth
ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 1Q25: Positive Results In Line With Our Estimates (Quick View)

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.
IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.

Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company

By Punit Khanna

Spindex is an illiquid but well managed company listed in Singapore
It trades at less than 2X EV/EBDITA multiple while its competitor Innovalues got privatised at 9 X EV/EBDITA
With 60% of market cap in cash, ex-cash current assets are more than total liabilities, offering limited downside

The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave

Danish Power (DANISH IN) stands to benefit from India’s aggressive shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar, supported by strong product offerings like Inverter Duty Transformers, which drive substantial revenue growth.
DPL’s strategic shift to higher-margin products, improved operating leverage, and expanded capacity should fuel margin expansion and support sustained profitability, positioning it well for continued growth and competitiveness.
With a robust order book exceeding INR 400 crore and an active pipeline, DPL has solid revenue visibility supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.

The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth

Shilchar’s focus on Inverter Duty Transformers positions it to capitalize on the booming renewable energy sector, especially solar, supporting long-term growth and profitability.
Shilchar’s recent capacity expansion, with a potential to scale further, ensures it can meet increasing domestic and export demand for transformers, positioning it for sustained market leadership.
Shilchar’s debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves enable strategic reinvestment in capacity and technology, ensuring continued growth in the competitive transformer industry.

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Course-Correcting for Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

With a 150-year track record, Furukawa operates in Machinery and Materials production.
Machinery focuses on heavy equipment for infrastructure, mining, and crushed stone, while electrolytic copper and byproducts have traditionally led Materials.
The company is undergoing a strategic shift, prioritizing higher-margin Machinery growth while significantly reducing unprofitable electrolytic copper exports.

ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 1Q25: Positive Results In Line With Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

Operating Revenues of P$8.2bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth and positive performance on the non-aeronautical front.
Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a 12% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+12% YoY), which supported the 0.2% gain in total PAX.
On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (36% of the total) gained 17% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 17% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Utilities: Jersey Electricity PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Jersey Electricity — Investing in resilience

Jersey Electricity — Investing in resilience

By Edison Investment Research

Jersey Electricity (JEL) is bringing forward capital spending to boost resilience and improve the security of its supply. Our analysis indicates that the £180m capex plan over the next five years, which includes £120m for what is referred to as ‘The Big Upgrade’, is comfortably affordable given the current health of JEL’s balance sheet (gearing peaks at less than 30% in 2029) and should not require above-inflation retail price increases beyond 2025. JEL beat our expectations for FY24 earnings, and looks well hedged to price exposures for the next two years.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, KC Tech, NetEase , Alphabet , Hi-Think Technology International Ltd, Faraday Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer
A Tender Offer of 6.2% Stake in KC Tech by KC Co
Tencent/Netease: One Game for Netease in April
GOOGL Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO – Steady Outlook Amid FX Pressures
Faraday Technology’s Breakout: AI Packaging Demand Defying the Global Semiconductor Slowdown

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer

By Arun George

In response to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s revised JPY5,400 offer, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) has asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) if it intends to revise its terms.
Minebea is reviewing its offer and has disclosed additional irrevocables from the founder’s family and MUFG. Total irrevocables represent a 15.83% ownership ratio.
On April 22, Yageo issued a public letter to change the narrative regarding the Board’s concerns. There is an increasing likelihood that Minebea will return with a revised offer.

A Tender Offer of 6.2% Stake in KC Tech by KC Co

By Douglas Kim

After the market close today, it was reported that KC Co (029460 KS) plans to conduct a tender offer 35 billion won worth of KC Tech (281820 KS) shares.
KC Co plans to conduct a tender offer of 1.283 million shares (6.2% stake) of KC Tech shares for 20 days from 23 April to 12 May.
The tender offer price for KC Tech is 27,100 won, which is 13.4% higher than the closing price on 22 April.

Tencent/Netease: One Game for Netease in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the April batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
While Netease received one game approval for its domestic game, Tencent received an approval for an imported game.

GOOGL Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

Recent performance and legal overhangs make this quarter interesting and more unpredictable.
We provide a detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in GOOGL options compared to historical outcomes.
The implied move looks rich relative to long-term averages—but more in line with recent quarters.

Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO – Steady Outlook Amid FX Pressures

By Troy Wong

Hi-Think Technology International (HT) is looking to raise at least US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
HT is a leading Chinese provider of digital intelligence software technology services and solutions, focusing on serving integration customers in Japan, particularly customers in the civil and financial sectors.
Due to significant depreciation of the JPY against the RMB, HT’s 9M24 sales growth and margins were negatively impacted.

Faraday Technology’s Breakout: AI Packaging Demand Defying the Global Semiconductor Slowdown

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Faraday Top-Line Soars on CoWoS Chip Packaging Services Support Ramp — 78% of MP Revenue Came from AI/HPC Applications
TSMC-Aligned Execution Enables Asset-Light Business Scaling for Faraday — New Fabless OSAT Service is Highly Differentiated; Competitive Advantage
Outlook: Continued Very Strong Momentum into 2Q25 — 1H25 Revenue Will Be Higher Than All of 2024

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Industrials: IHI Corp, Spindex Industries, Danish Power, Shilchar Technologies, Furukawa Co Ltd, Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company
The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave
The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth
Furukawa (5715 JP) – Course-Correcting for Growth
ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 1Q25: Positive Results In Line With Our Estimates (Quick View)

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.
IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.

Spindex (SPE SP) Illiquid but Very Cheap Company

By Punit Khanna

Spindex is an illiquid but well managed company listed in Singapore
It trades at less than 2X EV/EBDITA multiple while its competitor Innovalues got privatised at 9 X EV/EBDITA
With 60% of market cap in cash, ex-cash current assets are more than total liabilities, offering limited downside

The Beat Ideas: Danish Power Limited – Riding the Green Energy Wave

Danish Power (DANISH IN) stands to benefit from India’s aggressive shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar, supported by strong product offerings like Inverter Duty Transformers, which drive substantial revenue growth.
DPL’s strategic shift to higher-margin products, improved operating leverage, and expanded capacity should fuel margin expansion and support sustained profitability, positioning it well for continued growth and competitiveness.
With a robust order book exceeding INR 400 crore and an active pipeline, DPL has solid revenue visibility supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets.

The Beat Ideas- Shilchar Technologies: Powering the Grid, Energizing Growth

Shilchar’s focus on Inverter Duty Transformers positions it to capitalize on the booming renewable energy sector, especially solar, supporting long-term growth and profitability.
Shilchar’s recent capacity expansion, with a potential to scale further, ensures it can meet increasing domestic and export demand for transformers, positioning it for sustained market leadership.
Shilchar’s debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves enable strategic reinvestment in capacity and technology, ensuring continued growth in the competitive transformer industry.

Furukawa (5715 JP) – Course-Correcting for Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

With a 150-year track record, Furukawa operates in Machinery and Materials production.
Machinery focuses on heavy equipment for infrastructure, mining, and crushed stone, while electrolytic copper and byproducts have traditionally led Materials.
The company is undergoing a strategic shift, prioritizing higher-margin Machinery growth while significantly reducing unprofitable electrolytic copper exports.

ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 1Q25: Positive Results In Line With Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

Operating Revenues of P$8.2bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth and positive performance on the non-aeronautical front.
Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a 12% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+12% YoY), which supported the 0.2% gain in total PAX.
On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (36% of the total) gained 17% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 17% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Glencore Plc, Alcoa , Base Oil, Iron Ore, Wheaton Precious Metals, Waaree Energies, Ring Energy Inc, Halliburton Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025
Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April
[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories
Wheaton Precious Metals — Finalising Q125e
Waaree Energies IPO Lockup – Lots of Individual Shareholders Own over US$2bn Worth of Stock
Ring Energy, Inc: 1Q25 Production Exceeded High End of Guidance
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Halliburton Options Signal Elevated Volatility Amid Neutral Sentiment

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively.

Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

By Rahul Jain

Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April

By Iain Pocock

Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

By Pranay Yadav

China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum.
Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Finalising Q125e

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q125 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 8 May, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 60,109oz to 73,655oz, in line with the volume of copper produced according to Vale’s Q125 production report, released on 15 April. We have also assumed no further inventory build in Q1, after a 27,535oz gold equivalent increase in Q424 (against the historical trend). Including an adjustment for prices as well, these changes have resulted in a 17.4% increase to our Q125 adjusted EPS estimate and a 10.7% increase to our FY25 estimate.

Waaree Energies IPO Lockup – Lots of Individual Shareholders Own over US$2bn Worth of Stock

By Sumeet Singh

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) raised around US$514m in its India IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2024.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Ring Energy, Inc: 1Q25 Production Exceeded High End of Guidance

By Water Tower Research

On April 17, 2025, Ring announced that 1Q25 oil production exceeded the high end of guidance and that total production exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
For 1Q25, the oil production guidance range was 11,700-12,000 Bo/d and the midpoint total production guidance was 18,250.
Since oil represents more than 95% of total revenue, the oil outperformance has an outsized revenue impact.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

By Iain Pocock

Seasonal rise in US base oils demand likely to be more muted as concern about economic slowdown incentivizes blenders to maintain lower stocks.
Weak demand and rising surplus supply typically puts more pressure on export prices before domestic prices.
US base oils domestic prices instead fall while export prices hold steady so far in April 2025.

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Halliburton Options Signal Elevated Volatility Amid Neutral Sentiment

By Suhas Reddy

Halliburton will report its Q1 earnings on 22/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to weak activity in North America.
Halliburton’s OI PCR at 0.86 signals neutral sentiment, while its IV percentile at 96% indicates high volatility.
For the 25/Apr expiry, Halliburton’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 20, 25, and 27, while puts dominate at 19, 19.5, and 21.5, with higher put OI at key levels.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Financials: Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank, Hang Seng Index, Keppel Corp, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Sunac China Holdings, Bitcoin, IP Group PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted
HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk
Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.
Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
New Research: Unlocking Quantitative Alpha in Cryptocurrency Markets
IP Group — Roadmap to value

Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted

Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), a small bank focusing on rural and small business lending, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Jilin Jiutai was initially suspended on the 12th March. Then on the 31st March, it indefinitely postponed its FY24 results. The share price is down 61% in the past year.
My guess is that Jilin Province Trust will put Jilin Jiutai out its misery via an Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption. Pricing? Perhaps HK$0.80/share.

HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

By Nico Rosti

In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Wanda sells hotel business to Tencent-backed firm for $347M, indicating a strategic shift in their business operations.
Keppel raises $1.5B for data centre, education funds, and urban renewal, showing a focus on diverse investments.
Cushman & Wakefield appoints Matthew Bouw as APAC CEO for EMEA, highlighting leadership changes in the real estate industry.

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) | Peak Provisions Behind

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interacted with Microfinance BU (Business Unit) managers of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) across major states in India.
Our objective was to understand the current collection trends and asset quality issues especially in the Microfinance Portfolio.
Based on our interactions, we would like to put a case for declining provisions going ahead.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sunac China
US President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Mr Trump called for “pre-emptive cuts” in interest rates, stating that “there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates now”.
The latest salvo came after White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that the Trump administration was studying whether it could fire Mr Powell. Mr Trump also told reporters on Friday that Mr Powell would resign if the President asked him to.

New Research: Unlocking Quantitative Alpha in Cryptocurrency Markets

By William Mann

Market inefficiencies persist in crypto markets, particularly in cross-exchange arbitrage and futures basis trading
Traditional factor models can be adapted for cryptocurrency markets with size, momentum, and liquidity factors showing statistical significance
On-Chain metrics provide unique alpha signals unavailable in traditional markets

IP Group — Roadmap to value

By Edison Investment Research

IP Group made good progress in crystallising its portfolio values through exits, with proceeds of £183m collected in FY24, most notably from the realisations of Featurespace and Garrison Technology. Meanwhile, its performance continued to be negatively affected by the demanding environment for early-stage businesses, as well as some company-specific setbacks and the de-rating of the share price of Oxford Nanopore (ONT). That said, several portfolio holdings exhibited good business traction and interest from potential buyers, and IP Group’s shares now trade at a wide 59% discount to end-2024 NAV. In this note, we outline important future milestones across IP Group’s portfolio, which we encourage investors to track for indications of positive momentum.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, LXJ International Holdings, Theratechnologies , Sysmex Corp, Ananda Pharma, Ainos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy
CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June
Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings – The Pain Points and the Outlook
Theratechnologies Faces Potential Buyout with 75% Premium Amid Strategic Review and Multiple Bids from Future Pak
Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 14/04/2025
Ainos, Inc: Ugo Robotics Partnership Moving Rapidly with AI Nose Installed

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy

On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

By Special Situation Investments

The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.

Pre-IPO LXJ International Holdings – The Pain Points and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

LXJ’s revenue/net profit showed an upward trend from 2022 to 24Q1-Q3, but growth momentum was decreasing. The same store sales growth dropped significantly. Profit margin is also lower than peers.
There’re significant differences in dietary habits and tastes across China, making it difficult for LXJ to expand nationwide. So, the future growth potential may not be as good as expected.
In December 2021, valuation of LXJ had reached RMB18 billion. Since LXJ’s revenue growth/profit margin are inferior to Xiaocaiyuan, we think the valuation of LXJ should be lower than Xiaocaiyuan.

Theratechnologies Faces Potential Buyout with 75% Premium Amid Strategic Review and Multiple Bids from Future Pak

Future Pak’s latest offer for THTX is $3.51/share in cash plus a CVR worth up to $0.99/share.
THTX’s Egrifta SV has gross margins around 90%, while Trogarzo, a licensed drug, has gross margins at 48%.
Future Pak’s offer, including the CVR, values THTX at approximately 4x the gross profits from its commercialized treatments.

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): The US Tariff Wound Would Not Be Deep Enough

By Tina Banerjee

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP) earns 26% of total revenue from Americas. During 9MFY25, revenue from Americas increased 13% YoY to ¥96B.
The U.S. President Trump has proposed 10% baseline import tariffs on medical devices. Although Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the respite seems to be temporary.
Sysmex is exposed to tariff for instruments only as reagents are produced locally. Instrument sales in the Americas account for 5–6% of revenue, so tariff impact would be negligible.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 14/04/2025

By Hybridan

The UK-based biopharmaceutical Company developing regulatory approved, cannabinoid medicines to treat complex, chronic conditions, announced that trading in the Company’s ordinary shares on the OTCQB Venture Market in the US will commence today.
There is no associated capital raise with this cross trade and the Ordinary Shares will continue to trade on the Company’s primary listing market, the Apex segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange.
Cross trading on OTCQB allows the Company to access one of the world’s largest investment markets to expand its reach into a broader pool of investors and build brand awareness in the most important pharmaceutical market in the world.

Ainos, Inc: Ugo Robotics Partnership Moving Rapidly with AI Nose Installed

By Water Tower Research

ugo robots installed with AI Nose. Ainos and partner ugo completed the installation of AI Nose on a humanoid service robot, enhancing the functional applications of ugo’s robotics platform with AI-powered smell.
The collaboration has advanced to the next development phase, which involves software integration before real-world deployment in active environments for AI training.
Moving to software integration. Ainos expects integration of the backend control system and user interface design will take two to four weeks to complete.

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Apr 23

Daily Brief Consumer: LG Energy Solution, Sono International, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Devyani International , Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz, S&P 500 INDEX, Shakey’s Pizza, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares
Initial Thoughts on the Sono International IPO
Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup – Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors
Devyani Intnl.: Yum Brands India Franchisee to Acquire Cloud Kitchen Operator. In Pursuit of Growth
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Final and Unconditional NZ$2.80 Offer
Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here
Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) FY24 and Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 Bottomline, Strong FY25 Guidance
M & C Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev Blinks & Bumps
The Key Is to Solve the Root Problem of Women Leaving Their Jobs Due to the Bias of Family Work
BBW: Snapping the Store: Finding A Golden Egg; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares

By Sanghyun Park

With a $2B deal expected, LG Chem will likely issue before end June as the 2023 EB’s put date nears and redemption pressure builds amid strained financials.
Two years ago, hedge shorting spiked post-issuance and post-exchange start, but price impact was mild—only 3% and 6% drops—likely due to strong sector sentiment then.
Sector sentiment’s turned sharply, so more aggressive price action is likely post-EB announcement. Timing is tricky, but the setup’s worth watching closely.

Initial Thoughts on the Sono International IPO

By Douglas Kim

Sono International, the largest resort operator in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in 3Q 2025.
Company is aiming for valuation of about 3 trillion won. Treasury shares accounted for 35.93% of total outstanding shares at the end of 2024.
One of the noticeable aspects of the company’s income statement is that although the company’s sales growth was modest from 2019 to 2024, its operating margin growth has been spectacular.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup – Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

By Sumeet Singh

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market in 2023, with a market share of 6.8%
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Devyani Intnl.: Yum Brands India Franchisee to Acquire Cloud Kitchen Operator. In Pursuit of Growth

By Devi Subhakesan

Devyani International (DEVYANI IN) which operates QSRs such as KFC, Pizza Hut in India plans to acquire Sky Gate Hospitality Pvt. Ltd., the operator of the “Biryani By Kilo”.
This acquisition can diversify Devyani’s portfolio beyond its core quick‑service restaurant (QSR) franchises—KFC and Pizza Hut—at a time when same‑store sales growth has softened.
With the rise of off-premise dining and food delivery post pandemic, cloud kitchens are expanding across the board thanks to scalable, asset‑light model, and ability to bypass traditional dine‑in overheads.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Final and Unconditional NZ$2.80 Offer

By Arun George

City Developments (CIT SP) increased its Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) offer to NZ$2.80, a 24.4% premium to its previous NZ$2.25 offer. The Board will respond by 28 April.
The offer price is final. CDL has received OIO approval and has waived all the remaining conditions. Therefore, the offer is now unconditional.
While the revised offer remains materially below the IFA valuation and NTA, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The close date for the offer remains 8 May.

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

By Joe Jasper

Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term…
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) FY24 and Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 Bottomline, Strong FY25 Guidance

By Sameer Taneja

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) delivered FY24 revenue/profit growth of 13%/11% YoY. This was due to a turnaround of 9MFY24 revenue/profits from-10%/10% YoY, with Q4FY24 high season revenue/profits growing 19%/57% YoY.
The company is experiencing a sequential improvement in its SSSG, which is continuing into Q1 FY25. It has guided double-digit growth in revenues and profits in FY25.
Trading at 11.5x/10.2x PE for FY24/25e, with low expectations, we believe there could be a good rally post the results.

M & C Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev Blinks & Bumps