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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar
  • Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2
  • Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low
  • SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest
  • Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged
  • HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Combustible tobacco is declining globally, but Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is defying the odds by outperforming the industry significantly through capturing market share from competitors.
  • Also in Heated Tobacco, Japan Tobacco is slowly but steadily capturing market share from IQOS and other heated tobacco makers.
  • There will be no price hikes this year, but we think that there’s enough spillover from the price hikes in the past 3-4 years to maintain JT’s OP growth momentum.

Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) invited the investing community to Mongolia in early July.
  • During the briefing comments were made regarding its position in Entree Resources (ETG CN) which makes us believe a deal is imminent. These comments were later deleted from its transcript.
  • We expect newsflow around Rio/Entree’s future relationship before arbitration starts in April 2024.

Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Singapore credit growth turned negative at -3% YoY in July where STAN has major exposure, while many regions, are not high growth, where credit metrics are worsening, like HK, China
  • 88% of loans in well-developed countries, so that the old moniker of STAN being ‘an Emerging Market Bank’ may no longer apply, with NPLs as an overlying risk
  • Credit costs rose 6x from 1Q23 to 2Q23, but the 19bps level in 2Q23 remains low relative to its longer-term 62bps average – which excludes the Asian Financial Crisis

SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest

By Geoff Howie

  • Since the launch of Thai Singapore Depository Receipts in May, the three inaugural Thai SDRs – Airports of Thailand (AOT) , CP All and PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) – collectively traded over S$11 million on the Singapore Exchange.
  • The top traded SDR was PTTEP on the back of volatility in oil prices with max and daily trading ranges of (20 ticks) and 1% (7 ticks), respectively.
  • Airports of Thailand PLC is the largest publicly traded company in Thailand and the world’s largest airport operator by market capitalization.

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

By Tina Banerjee

  • Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
  • 2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
  • In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  

HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHH held its annual investor day updating investors on the continued increase in population at its MPC, but that was not enough to offset the decline in NAV
  • HHH’s management reiterated the trends that have fueled the business have continued with price per square foot and acre having increased over the past year.
  • HHH is now estimating its NAV at $129 compared to $170 last year. We are lowering our price target to $110 from $150 to reflect the erosion in the NAV

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Daily Brief Macro: Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!
  • EM by EM #20 Another energy squeeze in the cards?
  • Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?
  • The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves


Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!

By Andreas Steno

  • In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price action.
  • The below chart made the rounds lately as energy prices have started increasing again due to the tight supply side caused by the Saudi Arabians and Russians.
  • We admit that the study comparing the 1970s to today is mostly esoteric, but we have ourselves pondered whether inflation dynamics could return in a second wave.

EM by EM #20 Another energy squeeze in the cards?

By Emil Moller

  • In our analysis last week, we delved into the situation in Turkey and arrived at the following conclusion: The capable technocratic approach is more likely to succeed than the resurgence of economic populism.
  • However, what currently deters us from fully engaging in this trade is the potential for inflationary pressures to escalate due to the harsh impact of energy price fluctuations, which can be particularly unforgiving for net-importing economies like Turkey.
  • That seems to have aged fairly well as Turkey’s CPI has since printed above expectations and Oil and Energy has continued its tear on the back of the Saudi production cut.

Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?
  • More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength
  • We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.

The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? 
  • It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.
  • The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: DearU, Softbank Group, VNG (VinaGame), Hang Seng Index, HCL Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment
  • VNG (VinaGame) IPO Preview
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Slowing Growth
  • Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)


KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts

By Sanghyun Park

  • After results were transitioned to non-public information, it has been observed that results are reflected in prices significantly later, with substantial price impact occurring close to the rebalancing trading day. 
  • Even though the AUMs have recently decreased, the passive impact size is quite substantial, considering a recent pattern of price impact concentrating within a maximum of about two trading days.
  • A heavy Long-Short setup on these pairs, DearU / Douzone Bizon and SK Biopharmaceuticals / SK Bioscience (302440 KS), is something we should very actively consider.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment

By Victor Galliano

  • SoftBank’s internal transaction acquiring the 25% Arm stake held by SVF1 valued Arm at USD64bn; the IPO valuation range is from USD48bn to USD52bn
  • This valuation range implies an Nvidia-like price to prospective 2024E sales multiple range of 22x-25x; the prospectus reveals risks with Arm China, and confirms its lacklustre revenue and earnings growth
  • Given SoftBank’s largely negative track record on the after-market performance of its investee companies IPOs and SPOs; we expect further downside to SoftBank’s share price

VNG (VinaGame) IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in the next several months. VNG operates the dominant chat app Zalo in Vietnam. 
  • VNG is reminiscent of Kakao Corp (035720 KS) in its early years of operations when it captured a dominant portion of Korea’s chat app market through its KakaoTalk app.
  • Although the company has yet to provide a firm timeline of the IPO, there is likely to be eye-popping demand for the IPO shares of VNG. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Slowing Growth

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
  • The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
  • Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today’s buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Newcrest Mining, Entree Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct
  • Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2


Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct

By David Blennerhassett

  • After being granted due diligence, Newmont (NEM US) firmed an all-scrip Offer on the 15 May for Newcrest (NCM AU) at 0.400 new Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held. 
  • The Offer, by way of a Scheme, permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. 
  • The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. Newcrest shareholders vote on the transaction on the 13 October. The record date for the special dividend is the 19 October.

Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) invited the investing community to Mongolia in early July.
  • During the briefing comments were made regarding its position in Entree Resources (ETG CN) which makes us believe a deal is imminent. These comments were later deleted from its transcript.
  • We expect newsflow around Rio/Entree’s future relationship before arbitration starts in April 2024.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: JMDC , Peptidream Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged


JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

By Tina Banerjee

  • Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
  • 2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
  • In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: DearU and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts


KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts

By Sanghyun Park

  • After results were transitioned to non-public information, it has been observed that results are reflected in prices significantly later, with substantial price impact occurring close to the rebalancing trading day. 
  • Even though the AUMs have recently decreased, the passive impact size is quite substantial, considering a recent pattern of price impact concentrating within a maximum of about two trading days.
  • A heavy Long-Short setup on these pairs, DearU / Douzone Bizon and SK Biopharmaceuticals / SK Bioscience (302440 KS), is something we should very actively consider.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Newcrest Mining and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct


Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct

By David Blennerhassett

  • After being granted due diligence, Newmont (NEM US) firmed an all-scrip Offer on the 15 May for Newcrest (NCM AU) at 0.400 new Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held. 
  • The Offer, by way of a Scheme, permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. 
  • The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. Newcrest shareholders vote on the transaction on the 13 October. The record date for the special dividend is the 19 October.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: Yanlord Land, Standard Chartered, Howard Hughes Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low
  • HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Singapore credit growth turned negative at -3% YoY in July where STAN has major exposure, while many regions, are not high growth, where credit metrics are worsening, like HK, China
  • 88% of loans in well-developed countries, so that the old moniker of STAN being ‘an Emerging Market Bank’ may no longer apply, with NPLs as an overlying risk
  • Credit costs rose 6x from 1Q23 to 2Q23, but the 19bps level in 2Q23 remains low relative to its longer-term 62bps average – which excludes the Asian Financial Crisis

HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHH held its annual investor day updating investors on the continued increase in population at its MPC, but that was not enough to offset the decline in NAV
  • HHH’s management reiterated the trends that have fueled the business have continued with price per square foot and acre having increased over the past year.
  • HHH is now estimating its NAV at $129 compared to $170 last year. We are lowering our price target to $110 from $150 to reflect the erosion in the NAV

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Yanlord Land, PTT PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest

By Geoff Howie

  • Since the launch of Thai Singapore Depository Receipts in May, the three inaugural Thai SDRs – Airports of Thailand (AOT) , CP All and PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) – collectively traded over S$11 million on the Singapore Exchange.
  • The top traded SDR was PTTEP on the back of volatility in oil prices with max and daily trading ranges of (20 ticks) and 1% (7 ticks), respectively.
  • Airports of Thailand PLC is the largest publicly traded company in Thailand and the world’s largest airport operator by market capitalization.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars