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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 03
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM
  • ECM Weekly (3rd Sep 2023) – Doosan, VNG, Tuhu, Integral, ARM, Zomato, APM, Auckland Int, Daiwa REIT

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Marginal float helped fuel the VinFast (VFS US) bubble. Then it popped. 
  • The Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.
  • The backlash against Star CM Holdings (6698 HK) calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.

ECM Weekly (3rd Sep 2023) – Doosan, VNG, Tuhu, Integral, ARM, Zomato, APM, Auckland Int, Daiwa REIT

By Sumeet Singh

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Industrials: S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • SF Holding HK IPO | Q2/H1 Results | “Internationalization” Thesis Refined | Air, Int’l Impact in H1

SF Holding HK IPO | Q2/H1 Results | “Internationalization” Thesis Refined | Air, Int’l Impact in H1

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Review of Q2/H1 results, including impact from international, Kerry Logistics Network
  • Refining idea of “internationalization”, which we believe is driving force behind SF’s HK IPO
  • Testing thesis: did air and international exposure help or hurt SF margins in H1?

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Financials: SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) EGM Done. TOPIX Removal on Weds, Last Day Is 27 Sep, Money Comes Next Year.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) EGM Done. TOPIX Removal on Weds, Last Day Is 27 Sep, Money Comes Next Year.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the EGM to approve the share consolidation (resulting in minority squeezeout and delisting) took place. 
  • It was a done deal. So now it is done.
  • All that remains is for the technically adept to do what they expect they need to do. 

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Costa Group Holdings, Mitsubishi Motors, ENM Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Energy One, Costa Group, DDH1, ENM, Penguin
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Aug 2023
  • 26 Sept Scheme Vote For ENM (128 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Energy One, Costa Group, DDH1, ENM, Penguin

By David Blennerhassett

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Aug 2023

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-August 2023.

26 Sept Scheme Vote For ENM (128 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 2 June, small-cap fashion wear retailer ENM Holdings (128 HK) received a delisting Offer from major shareholder, Chinachem, at HK$0.58/share, in cash.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out after thrice being delayed. The EGM/Court Meeting will be held on the 26 September with expected payment around the 14 November. 
  • There’s a whiff of opportunism embedded in the Offer. But being loss-making and illiquid, I’d expect the vote to still get up.

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Screening for GEMs: September 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Screening for GEMs: September 2023
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 1st): Tencent, Aia, China Petroleum & Chemical
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 1st): Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Realtek Semi, Mediatek, Alchip Tech

Screening for GEMs: September 2023

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 1st): Tencent, Aia, China Petroleum & Chemical

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 1st based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 1st): Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Realtek Semi, Mediatek, Alchip Tech

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 1st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Realtek Semi, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Eva Airways.

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors
  • AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead
  • US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve
  • GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
  • IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture & storage, among others.
  • By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.

AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead

By Howard J Klein

  • AI is coming to casinos, especially fast to Asian sector properties which are always early adapters of tech breakthroughs.
  • Ironically, without human contact, AI can produce far more personalized marketing campaigns with better returns than human contact judgments.
  • AI could be an exponential advance in fraud deetection, suspicious transaction reductios and problem gambling risk that regulator will embrace, if not mandate.

US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans
  • Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY
  • Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week

GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China and Asia PMI data, South Korean industrial production.
  • Companies mentioned this week:XPeng (9868 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Energy One, Costa Group, DDH1, ENM, Penguin
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Aug 2023
  • Quiddity ASX Sep 23 Rebal: 15 Inflow/Outflow Names; Beware of Short Buildup; US$450mn One-Way
  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) EGM Done. TOPIX Removal on Weds, Last Day Is 27 Sep, Money Comes Next Year.
  • 26 Sept Scheme Vote For ENM (128 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

By Brian Freitas

  • The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
  • There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
  • Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Marginal float helped fuel the VinFast (VFS US) bubble. Then it popped. 
  • The Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.
  • The backlash against Star CM Holdings (6698 HK) calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Energy One, Costa Group, DDH1, ENM, Penguin

By David Blennerhassett

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Aug 2023

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-August 2023.

Quiddity ASX Sep 23 Rebal: 15 Inflow/Outflow Names; Beware of Short Buildup; US$450mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The September 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st September 2023. 
  • There will be 15 ADD names and 15 DELETE names across ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300. Collectively, the ADDs could see one-way flow of roughly US$450mn. 
  • Many names have a significant number of days to trade. Some of these names have seen a spike in short interest recently. This should be an interesting flow event.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) EGM Done. TOPIX Removal on Weds, Last Day Is 27 Sep, Money Comes Next Year.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the EGM to approve the share consolidation (resulting in minority squeezeout and delisting) took place. 
  • It was a done deal. So now it is done.
  • All that remains is for the technically adept to do what they expect they need to do. 

26 Sept Scheme Vote For ENM (128 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 2 June, small-cap fashion wear retailer ENM Holdings (128 HK) received a delisting Offer from major shareholder, Chinachem, at HK$0.58/share, in cash.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out after thrice being delayed. The EGM/Court Meeting will be held on the 26 September with expected payment around the 14 November. 
  • There’s a whiff of opportunism embedded in the Offer. But being loss-making and illiquid, I’d expect the vote to still get up.

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (3rd Sep 2023) – Doosan and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (3rd Sep 2023) – Doosan, VNG, Tuhu, Integral, ARM, Zomato, APM, Auckland Int, Daiwa REIT
  • SF Holding HK IPO | Q2/H1 Results | “Internationalization” Thesis Refined | Air, Int’l Impact in H1

ECM Weekly (3rd Sep 2023) – Doosan, VNG, Tuhu, Integral, ARM, Zomato, APM, Auckland Int, Daiwa REIT

By Sumeet Singh

SF Holding HK IPO | Q2/H1 Results | “Internationalization” Thesis Refined | Air, Int’l Impact in H1

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Review of Q2/H1 results, including impact from international, Kerry Logistics Network
  • Refining idea of “internationalization”, which we believe is driving force behind SF’s HK IPO
  • Testing thesis: did air and international exposure help or hurt SF margins in H1?

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) – China’s New IPO Reform and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) – China’s New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) – China’s New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • IPO rules in SSE STAR Market faces adjustments, so investors have lowered expectations, which will affect the fundraising ecology. Recovery of China’s financing environment would be slower than US/Europe.
  • The CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty, IPO, and reduction of shares held by listed companies, which would significantly affect the capitalization path of pharmaceutical companies.
  • Junshi is “an interesting Biotech” that once generated sales/profits in scale, but is losing money again.Since Junshi is outside the first echelon and the gap is widening, we remain conservative. 

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Sep 03
0

Most Read: East Buy Holding , Trip.com Group , Brilliance China Automotive, Tcc Steel, Accton Technology, JB Hi-Fi Ltd, Doosan Robotics, Youngpoong Paper Mfg, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Trip.com (9961 HK) Replaces CG Services (6098 HK)
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Changes in December
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI
  • China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover
  • Doosan Robotics IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

By Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Trip.com (9961 HK) Replaces CG Services (6098 HK)

By Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

By Brian Freitas

  • Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
  • The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
  • For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see nine potential changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • The potential adds are dominated by the Materials sector while the potential deletions are mainly from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-12 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.1-30 days of ADV.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

By Brian Freitas

China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…

By Michael J. Howell

  • China’s economy is not anything like as ‘bad’ as being reported by the popular media. Yet, there are deep structural challenges which will hinder future economic growth
  • Monetary policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan (CNY)
  • Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts economic activity. The cost could be a CNY of RMB8/ US$

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover

By Brian Freitas

Doosan Robotics IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

By Brian Freitas

  • The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
  • There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
  • Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Marginal float helped fuel the VinFast (VFS US) bubble. Then it popped. 
  • The Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.
  • The backlash against Star CM Holdings (6698 HK) calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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