Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
• That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
• Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

• A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
• The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (>2.5% of global copper production).
• Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.

• Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
• Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
• Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.

• NVIDIA’s has a strong position in the AI industry, but global trade policies introduce short-term uncertainties. Strong revenues and cash position buffer against policy-driven obstacles, particularly concerning its China revenues.
• We highlight NVIDIA’s technological leadership, including its full-stack computing infrastructure and rapid platform transitions. External pressures weigh on projected revenues, including export restrictions and increasing competition from major tech companies.
• We see potentially overpriced implied volatility. This strategy aims to generate premium while managing risks associated with price movements, especially in the context of evolving geopolitical and competitive landscapes.

• FactSet Research Systems delivered strong fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results, reflecting its continued resilience and capability to navigate shifting market conditions.
• The firm reported a 5.4% revenue growth rate to $2.3 billion for the fiscal year, and highlighted a significant increase in organic Annual Subscription Value (ASV), with the fourth quarter seeing the largest ASV addition in its history at $81.8 million.
• This ASV growth, especially notable at 5.7% sequentially, signals robust demand for FactSet’s offerings, particularly in wealth and asset management sectors, driven by an increasing appetite for data solutions.

• Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) will spin off its cable networks and digital platforms into a new, independent, tax-free entity, Versant Media Group (Nasdaq: VSNT).
• The separation aims to unlock distinct value profiles, giving investors clearer exposure to both Comcast’s infrastructure-driven growth and Versant’s media/content-driven earnings
• The transaction is expected to be tax-free for Comcast shareholders and is anticipated to be completed in 2026.

• Vistra Corp shares recently pulled back sharply, dropping over 5% to \$206.82 after hitting an all-time intraday high of \$219.82 just a day earlier.
• The dip follows a downgrade by Jefferies, reflecting mounting investor concerns over delays in finalizing a high-stakes data center deal for the company’s Comanche Peak nuclear facility.
• While Vistra’s CEO Jim Burke expressed strong confidence that a deal will ultimately be signed, uncertainty around its timing and regulatory factors tied to Texas Senate Bill 6 have introduced a level of risk that the market is now pricing in.

• Crude oil futures were challenging monthly highs Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel, after the latest spate of refinery attacks.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.13/b (2010 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.86/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
• Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

• ClearPoint Neuro is uniquely positioned as a critical enabler for the high-growth neuro-therapeutics market, providing the only commercially available platform for real-time, MRI-guided, minimally invasive navigation and delivery to the brain.
• The company’s hybrid business model, combining capital equipment sales with a growing base of recurring revenue from disposable products and services for its 60+ biopharma partners, offers a scalable path to future growth.
• While demonstrating impressive and consistent revenue growth (31% in 2024), the company remains unprofitable with significant cash burn, reflecting a high-investment phase focused on R&D, market expansion, and supporting partner clinical trials.

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• Crude oil futures eased back from multi-week highs Thursday amid profit taking but remained at the top end of the summer trading range.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $68.80/b (0945 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $69.31/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at   $64.45/b against a previous close of $64.99/b.
• Prices slipped after hitting the highest levels since July on what was put down to profit-taking, but concerns over Russian supplies continued to underpin the relatively elevated levels.