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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Golden Eagle Retail, Isupetasys, Dali Foods Group, Lake Resources Nl, Eoflow , TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Coforge, APA Group, Hanwha Ocean and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Golden Eagle (3308 HK): 15th September Scheme Meeting
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows
  • Dali Foods (3799 HK): Widening Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go
  • EOFlow/Medtronic: What Lawsuit?
  • TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO Trading – Offered at a Premium with Underwhelming Subscription Rates
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia’s Earnings Today
  • Coforge Placement – US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish
  • APA Group Placement – Well Flagged Deal, but Lacks in Accretion
  • Korea – Positioning in Ecopro, JYP Entertainment, Hanwha Ocean, Hanmi Semi, CJ Corp, E-Mart


Golden Eagle (3308 HK): 15th September Scheme Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th May, PRC department store play Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK) announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.
  • The Offeror is the Wang family, Together with concert parties, they control 80.29%. 7.18% of the remaining 19.71% of the disinterested stakeholders have given an irrevocable. 
  • The Scheme Doc was despatched this morning (23 August). The Scheme Meeting is September 15th with expected payment on (or before) the 17th of October. The Offer price is final.

KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
  • We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Widening Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote

By Arun George

  • Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)‘s gross spread on the Founder’s (Mr Xu Shihui) HK$3.75 per share offer has sharply increased and stood at 5.3% at the last close.
  • The rising gross spread is due to the recent market selloff (the gross spread of all HKEx merger arbs we track increased this week) and vote risk. 
  • The vote risk is due to no interim results, the high AGM minority participation rate and a modest offer. There is little evidence that these risks will derail the vote. 

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes for the next rebalance will use closing prices from 31 August, will be announced after the close on 8 September with implementation at the close on 15 September.
  • One stock is very close to the 85% cumulative market cap inclusion threshold, while there are two stocks that are near the 98% cumulative market cap deletion threshold.
  • With one inclusion and capping changes, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$20m. That could change over the next week.

EOFlow/Medtronic: What Lawsuit?

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th of August, Insulet Corp (PODD US) filed a lawsuit accusing Eoflow (294090 KS) of the misappropriation of trade secrets, patent infringement, and trademark dilution.
  • The filing was pretty heavy on accusations. EOFlow declined ~11% on the news.
  • Undeterred, Medtronic (MDT US) continues to preach all is peachy, suggesting the EOFlow merger is a go, and Medtronic will deal with the lawsuit, as and when.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO Trading – Offered at a Premium with Underwhelming Subscription Rates

By Ethan Aw

  • TVS Supply Chain Solutions (TVSSCS IN) raised around US$108m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of up to US$500m.
  • TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. 
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia’s Earnings Today

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.
  • TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.
  • Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia’s AI hardware according to media reports.

Coforge Placement – US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

By Sumeet Singh

  • Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) .
  • Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

APA Group Placement – Well Flagged Deal, but Lacks in Accretion

By Clarence Chu

  • APA Group (APA AU) is looking to raise A$675m (US$430m) in its primary follow-on to partially fund its acquisition of the Alinta Energy assets in the Pilbara region.
  • The deal is a well flagged one with APA having been one of the last remaining bidders on the asset. Short interest has been on the rise as well.
  • However, the deal doesn’t seem accretive at our end, and the results reported today seemed to have missed analyst expectations.

Korea – Positioning in Ecopro, JYP Entertainment, Hanwha Ocean, Hanmi Semi, CJ Corp, E-Mart

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Australia: Lake Resources Nl and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes for the next rebalance will use closing prices from 31 August, will be announced after the close on 8 September with implementation at the close on 15 September.
  • One stock is very close to the 85% cumulative market cap inclusion threshold, while there are two stocks that are near the 98% cumulative market cap deletion threshold.
  • With one inclusion and capping changes, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$20m. That could change over the next week.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Ocean, Isupetasys and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows


Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Ocean’s share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. 
  • Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. 
  • We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. 

KOSPI Size Indices – Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
  • We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.

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Daily Brief United States: S&P 500 INDEX, ARM Holdings, Corn Active Contract, Dollar General, Uber Technologies , Starbucks Corp, DoorDash , Borgwarner Inc, Arista Networks, Etsy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers
  • ARM Holdings Limited – The Positives – Pervasive Global Presence
  • Ascending El Niño and Its Impact on Corn Production and Prices
  • Dollar General (DG-US) – It’s a trap!
  • Uber Technologies Inc.: Breaking the Mold With New Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • Starbucks Corporation: From Digital Dominance to Chinese Conquest – What’s Next? – Major Drivers
  • DoorDash Inc.: Ghost Kitchen Expansion Could Usher In a New Era of Growth? – Major Drivers
  • BorgWarner Inc.: Can The Acquisition of Eldor’s Electric Hybrid Systems Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Arista Networks Inc.: Capitalizing on Strong Growth Outside the Cloud Domain! – Major Drivers
  • Etsy Inc.: What Are The Factors Responsible Behind Their Surge in New and Reactivated Buyers? – Financial Forecasts


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

By Joe Jasper

  • Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
  • Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
  • Longer-Term support on the S&P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.

ARM Holdings Limited – The Positives – Pervasive Global Presence

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings ’ US IPO.
  • ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Ascending El Niño and Its Impact on Corn Production and Prices

By Pranay Yadav

  • El Niño & Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon with adverse impact chiefly on agriculture causing volatility in grain production leading to price shocks.
  • Shortening frequency of ENSO cycles and its intensity has increased due to global warming. Given its potency of causing shocks, ENSO now has an outsized influence on global economics.
  • Considering El Niño’s impact on corn, expect production to decline next year as La Niña effects fade compounded by agri productivity declines due to higher temperatures & extreme weather.

Dollar General (DG-US) – It’s a trap!

By Guasty Winds

  • After spectating DG for some time, I bought a small starter position in June. It is not often that you get a chance to buy a compounder like this 35% from its highs.
  • Historically it has paid to buy the dips on DG, so I figured I would buy now and ask questions later.
  • This time it has not paid, at all. My average was ~$185 and I sold my stock last monday at $168. I know that some of my subs also follow the stock so I thought I would collect my notes and write up a few paragraphs.

Uber Technologies Inc.: Breaking the Mold With New Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Uber Technologies delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • However, it has faced its fair share of challenges in the competitive landscape and increasing complexity of marketplace management.
  • We give Uber Technologies a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Starbucks Corporation: From Digital Dominance to Chinese Conquest – What’s Next? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Starbucks Corporation delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below Wall Street expectations but managed a significant earnings beat.
  • In North America, the company’s revenue growth was driven by strong same-store sales and operational improvements.
  • Starbucks’ digital strategy, mainly through Starbucks Rewards, showed good growth, reflecting the brand’s strength in key markets.

DoorDash Inc.: Ghost Kitchen Expansion Could Usher In a New Era of Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DoorDash delivered a mixed result in its last quarter, with revenues above analysts’ expectations but failed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The quarter saw an increase in international business as well as better unit economics.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

BorgWarner Inc.: Can The Acquisition of Eldor’s Electric Hybrid Systems Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BorgWarner delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarter, with double digits organic revenue growth, driven by stronger industry output and expansion in China and Europe.
  • By 2027, their team anticipates purchasing over 200 million semiconductor dyes annually, based on the expansion of their power electronics goods.
  • BorgWarner’s inverter industry is anticipated to be 70% silicon carbide based by the same year, with nearly 50% of its inverters being 800 volts.

Arista Networks Inc.: Capitalizing on Strong Growth Outside the Cloud Domain! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arista Networks managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company generated $1.46 billion in revenue for the quarter and $1.58 in non-GAAP earnings per share.
  • Arista is adjusting to these developments and increasing its investments in AI as its biggest cloud customers reassess their conventional cloud and AI networking plans.

Etsy Inc.: What Are The Factors Responsible Behind Their Surge in New and Reactivated Buyers? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, with adjusted EBITDA margin and revenue increasing significantly.
  • Their year-over-year growth rate was negative, but it increased sequentially.
  • Etsy also observed healthy year-over-year growth in the number of new and reactivated buyers when bringing both groups together.

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Daily Brief China: Kuaishou Technology, Ping An Insurance (H), Golden Eagle Retail, Sun Hung Kai, ClouDr Group, iQIYI Inc, West China Cement, Activation Group Holdings, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • KS (Kuaishou 1024 HK): 2Q23, First Net Profit Since IPO, Growth Accelerated, Buy
  • Ping An Insurance – Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor
  • Golden Eagle (3308 HK): 15th September Scheme Meeting
  • SHK 86_HK: Dividend Yield 8.5%, P/E 1.96x, P/B 0.25x
  • ClouDr Group (9955.HK) 23H1 – Turning Losses into Profits Is Within Reach
  • IQIYI (IQ US): Embracing Moderate yet Stable Growth
  • West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • An Update on 2023H1 Results of Activation Group (9919 HK)
  • Morning Views Asia:


KS (Kuaishou 1024 HK): 2Q23, First Net Profit Since IPO, Growth Accelerated, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The total revenue growth rate accelerated significantly to 28% YoY in 2Q23.
  • The high-margin businesses grew more rapidly than the low margin business.
  • Gross Merchandise Value and Active user base still increased strongly.

Ping An Insurance – Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions
  • Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot
  • Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure

Golden Eagle (3308 HK): 15th September Scheme Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th May, PRC department store play Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK) announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.
  • The Offeror is the Wang family, Together with concert parties, they control 80.29%. 7.18% of the remaining 19.71% of the disinterested stakeholders have given an irrevocable. 
  • The Scheme Doc was despatched this morning (23 August). The Scheme Meeting is September 15th with expected payment on (or before) the 17th of October. The Offer price is final.

SHK 86_HK: Dividend Yield 8.5%, P/E 1.96x, P/B 0.25x

By Evaluate Research

  • Despite Headwinds Revenue Remains Relatively Stable at HK $1,968 million 
  • For 1HFY2023–Total Buyback of 0.77 million shares (HK$2.3 million) at average price of $2.99 
  • Stock at 0.25x tangible P/B and at 1.96x P/E on our FY2024 earnings estimate 

ClouDr Group (9955.HK) 23H1 – Turning Losses into Profits Is Within Reach

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • When we discovered that JD Health’s growth could face a downturn crisis, we hope to find a suitable substitute. ClouDr has such potential due to its good performance/reasonable business model.
  • The current anti-corruption campaign could bring new opportunities to ClouDr, who can rely on “hospital first” strategy to take the upper hand, but it should be based on some prerequisites.
  • ClouDr’s business is expected to keep strong growth momentum in 2023. The Company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2024. Investors could see good stock price performance at that time.

IQIYI (IQ US): Embracing Moderate yet Stable Growth

By Eric Chen

  • IQiyi failed to give its share price a lift with  stronger-than-expected 2Q results except for slight miss in paying subscribers .
  • We believe that investors are expecting the end of its remarkable turnaround story and embracing a stable and moderate growth stage.
  • While iQiyi trades at ~10x our FY23 earnings, the cheap valuation by itself doesn’t stand out among China internet peers as a group. We would wait for better entry points.

West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

WCC’s H1/23 results were softer than expected, as the company reported lower sales volumes and larger-than-expected ASP declines across its plants in Mainland China. In particular, sales volumes and ASP in the company’s stronghold of Shaanxi fell 4% and 16% y-o-y, respectively. Positively, WCC’s expansion in Africa has been progressing well, with overseas operations now accounting for 27% of revenue. The company’s plants in Africa enjoy substantially higher margins than those in China.

In our view, the key risk for WCC is uncertainty regarding the extent of its African expansion, with the company reportedly developing another USD 100 mn cement plant in Rwanda. We believe further expansion into Africa will fundamentally change WCC’s risk profile.

 We move our recommendation on the WESCHI 4.95 26 to “Buy” from “Hold”.


An Update on 2023H1 Results of Activation Group (9919 HK)

By Oriental Value

  • Activation Group (9919 HK) unveiled its first-half financial results for 2023 on August 10th, 2023.
  • In this article, we will provide an overview of Activation’s performance during this period and share thoughts on its future prospects.
  • The Experiential Marketing segment recorded a full recovery, reaching RMB 280 million, surpassing the 2021 H1 level of RMB 276 million.

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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    Daily Brief India: Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Union Bank Of India, Kolte Patil Developers, SAMHI Hotels and more

    By | Daily Briefs, India

    In today’s briefing:

    • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Start of FY24 Riding on US Formulation Business
    • Union Bank of India QIP – Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong
    • Kolte Patil: Strong Growth Momentum Continues from FY23
    • Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Peer Comp and Valuation


    Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Start of FY24 Riding on US Formulation Business

    By Tina Banerjee

    • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) recorded 30% YoY growth in revenue to INR51B in Q1FY24, driven by 57% YoY growth in US formulation business. India business revenue grew 6% YoY.
    • US business growth was driven by new product launches and improvement in base business. The company has launched four new products in the US during the quarter.
    • Zydus Lifesciences expects double-digit growth in India branded formulation business to continue and the U.S. business to grow on a formidable base of FY23 going forward.

    Union Bank of India QIP – Well-Flagged Deal, Recent Momentum Has Been Strong

    By Clarence Chu

    • Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise US$301m from its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Included in the deal is an option to effectively double its base deal. 
    • The deal is a relatively large one to digest with the base deal alone representing 21.1 days of three months ADV. 
    • That being said, the deal here is a very well flagged one with the firm having earlier reported to look to do so to boost its free float.

    Kolte Patil: Strong Growth Momentum Continues from FY23

    By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

    • Kolte Patil (KPDL) reported record sales velocity in Q1FY24 and is on track to achieve 25%+ sales value growth in FY24 as per its stated guidance.
    • Business development activity is also happening at a record pace and Kolte Patil is on track to beat its prior FY24 guidance of INR 8000cr by a wide margin.
    • Despite 80%+ rise in the share price since our coverage initiation 2Y ago, Kolte Patil still offers an upside potential of 25%+ IRR over a holding period of three years. 

    Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Peer Comp and Valuation

    By Sumeet Singh

    • SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) plans to raise around US$200m (estimated) in its Indian IPO.
    • Samhi is India’s third-largest hotel asset owner, by number of keys, with a portfolio of 25 operating hotel assets comprising 3,839 keys, as of Feb 2023.
    • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison and provide our thoughts on valuation.

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    Daily Brief Japan: Integral Corporation, Sekisui Chemical, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Japan

    In today’s briefing:

    • Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case
    • Sekisui Chem (4204) | Potential of Perovskite PV
    • Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors


    Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case

    By Arun George

    • Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
    • In Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
    • The bear case rest on the declining mix of fee-earning AUM, growth driven by volatile investment income and uninspiring 1HFY22 performance in fee-related revenue growth and margin.

    Sekisui Chem (4204) | Potential of Perovskite PV

    By Mark Chadwick

    • Perovskite solar cells have the potential to be more efficient and less expensive than traditional silicon solar cells.
    • Recent research suggests that the global market for Perovskite PV could be worth around $12 billion in 2032
    • If Sekisui Chemical were to take a 10% market share, then the potential impact on earnings could be 22%.

    Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors

    By Aki Matsumoto

    • There are concerns about the ability of female directors hired solely for the purpose of recruiting women directors without a reasonable director nomination process to demonstrate strength on the BOD.
    • Board diversity issues were considered a low priority until more institutional investors voted against the top management of companies with zero female directors at shareholder meetings.
    • Given the small population of full-time female employees and the relatively young age bias, it’s likely that even in 2030, most female board members will be relying on outside talent.

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    Daily Brief ESG: Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped and more

    By | Daily Briefs, ESG

    In today’s briefing:

    • Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors


    Even if Proper Nomination Process Is Skipped, It May Be Considered Better than Zero Women Directors

    By Aki Matsumoto

    • There are concerns about the ability of female directors hired solely for the purpose of recruiting women directors without a reasonable director nomination process to demonstrate strength on the BOD.
    • Board diversity issues were considered a low priority until more institutional investors voted against the top management of companies with zero female directors at shareholder meetings.
    • Given the small population of full-time female employees and the relatively young age bias, it’s likely that even in 2030, most female board members will be relying on outside talent.

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    Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

    In today’s briefing:

    • Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers


    Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

    By Joe Jasper

    • Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
    • Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
    • Longer-Term support on the S&P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.

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    Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

    In today’s briefing:

    • Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme
    • The Japanese Consumer: Spending Again


    Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Fall on Consumer Fears; JAPAN X: Hitachi Inspires with Mgmt Incentive Scheme

    By Mark Chadwick

    • OVERSEAS. US Stocks fall as Dicks Sporting and Macy’s raises concerns over US consumer; US Tells China to be more Transparent on Economy; Traders Betting on Blow Out NVIDIA
    • JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.9;  Japan Defense Ministry to ask for (another) Record Budget; 2 trillion yen request for GX spend in FY24.
    • JAPAN X:  Hitachi Introduces Innovative Executive Compensation Plan Tied to Stock Performance Against Competitors. Interesting structure-lights a fire under senior management.

    The Japanese Consumer: Spending Again

    By Michael Causton

    • The following is an analysis of the latest census data to provide investors in Japanese retail and consumer stocks with background on key consumer behaviour trends.
    • Record levels of income, full to bursting savings accounts averaging ¥19 million, and signs of a falling propensity to save, mean people are spending again.
    • The only dark cloud is that rising prices remain a concern for many households, restraining spending on disposable items in many low income households.

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