Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Jul 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan

GEMWeekly (28 Jul 2023): South Korea GDP; Alibaba, Samsung SDI, Tencent, TSMC, Ant, Meituan

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: South Korean GDP, export, and import growth.
Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Samsung SDI (006400 KS), Tencent (700 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT), Ant Group (6688 HK), MeiraGTx Holdings plc (MGTX US)

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Jul 30

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) – Tryt and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, the coming week will see Cinema XXI listing.
Given that we are in the middle of earnings season, there were no new placements this week.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hydro Lithium (101670) Could Replace Nice Information (030190) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hydro Lithium (101670) Could Replace Nice Information (030190)
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT
Concordia/Rothschild: Start of Offer Period
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Talon Energy, Pacific Current, Toshiba, Eoflow, 111 Inc
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate
Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August
OCI Holdings Announces a Tender Offer to Buy 45% Stake in OCI Co

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hydro Lithium (101670) Could Replace Nice Information (030190)

By Brian Freitas

The KRX has approved Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)‘s transfer from the KOSDAQ Board to the KOSPI Board. The transfer could take place in the next two weeks.
Hydro Lithium (101670 KS) was the highest ranked non-constituent from the Industrials sector at the June rebalance and could replace Nice Information Service (030190 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS) has no chance of inclusion in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) and will not be short sell eligible post section transfer.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

By Brian Freitas

The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.

Concordia/Rothschild: Start of Offer Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The simplified tender offer for Rothschild & Co (ROTH FP) opened on 24 July and will last until 8 September (inclusive). The ex-dividend offer price is €38.60.
The offer represents 7.22x NTM Fwd P/E (ex-dividend), rather low for the top European M&A player and a high quality business. Merchant Banking division could have a lot of upside.
The enlarged family concert has bought shares in the market and has now c.66%. I anticipate the offer to go according to plan. Gross spread is nil.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Talon Energy, Pacific Current, Toshiba, Eoflow, 111 Inc

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Talon Energy (TPD AU)‘s non-binding Offer from Strike Energy (STX AU); and Pacific Current (PAC AU)‘s cash/scrip NBIO from Regal Partners (RPL AU).
Key updates took place for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Eoflow (294090 KS), and 111 Inc (YI US).

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

By David Blennerhassett

NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)‘s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023.
Don’t punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

By Arun George

Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)‘s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable.
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.

OCI Holdings Announces a Tender Offer to Buy 45% Stake in OCI Co

By Douglas Kim

On 28 July, OCI Holdings (010060 KS) announced that it plans to conduct a tender offer to purchase up to 45% stake in OCI Co (456040 KS).
The tender offer price of OCI Co is 139,000 won. The method of this tender offer is to issue new common shares of OCI Holdings.
In the short term (one month), we expect OCI Co’s shares to outperform OCI Holdings shares. This deal is structured to mainly benefit the OCI Group’s insiders.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised
China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.28) – Starting Point of New Prosperity, MNCs Change Strategy, Genscript
SK Hynix. Making HBM While AI Shines

2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised

By Tina Banerjee

Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.
Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.
Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.28) – Starting Point of New Prosperity, MNCs Change Strategy, Genscript

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

AD (Alzheimer Disease) and RNAi are one of the most valuable breakthroughs in global pharmaceutical industry in recent years. We think they may bring the next round of biopharmaceutical prosperity.
MNCs have begun to adjust their strategic business model in China. Licensing cooperation and equity investments in China biotech companies are expected to become a new trend.
We can’t expect too much from Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) just because Legend Bio’s CAR-T product has good sales performance. Genscript could underperform based on our analysis.

SK Hynix. Making HBM While AI Shines

By William Keating

SK Hynix’s Q2’23 revenue increased ~50% QoQ with bit shipment growth of ~35% for DRAM, ~50% for NAND
AI-Driven demand for DDR5 & HBM pushed DRAM QoQ ASP growth into positive territory for the first time in 9 months.
But it’s still stormy weather ahead as mainstream DRAM, along with NAND ASPs continue their downward slide

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Macro: The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

By Jeroen Blokland

The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.
After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement.
After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral.

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Jul 30

Most Read: Data#3 Ltd, Mitra Adiperkasa, Wistron Corp, SK Biopharmaceuticals , Nomura Real Estate Master Fund,, Nice Information Service Co, BFI Finance Indonesia, Softbank Group, MOG Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance & Update to Potential Changes in September
LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs
KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete
Nomura Real Estate To Buy Nomura RE Master Fund Units
KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hydro Lithium (101670) Could Replace Nice Information (030190)
Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Short-Term Blip Provides Opportunity
SoftBank Group (9984 JP) – Reasons to Be Careful
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

S&P/ASX200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance & Update to Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

Ventia (VNT AU) will replace Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 21 July.
The ad hoc change will lead to changes in the list of potential adds and deletes at the regular scheduled rebalance in September.
Weebit Nano Ltd (WBT AU) is now a potential add in September and could see some pre-positioning in the near future.

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

By Brian Freitas

Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ).
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs

By Brian Freitas

JFSL spun off from Reliance Industries (RIL IN) last week and Ventia (VNT AU) replaced Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
The IDX should announce the changes to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices early in the coming week.
There were inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) while Taiwan focused ETFs had outflows.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete

By Brian Freitas

The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
There is one change currently for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game indices. Then there are a couple of changes for the Internet and BBIG indices.
There are four stocks that will have over 2 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers and these stocks could move around announcement of the changes.

Nomura Real Estate To Buy Nomura RE Master Fund Units

By Travis Lundy

Today, Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP) – the largest REIT in the ‘Diversified REIT’ JREIT space – announced sponsor Nomura Real Estate (3231 JP) would up its stake.
They would lift their stake from 4.47% by 2.54% to 7.01%. There is a reason for this, just like there was last time with Japan Excellent (8987 JP).
Understanding the reason is how you understand the trade to do.

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: Hydro Lithium (101670) Could Replace Nice Information (030190)

By Brian Freitas

The KRX has approved Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)‘s transfer from the KOSDAQ Board to the KOSPI Board. The transfer could take place in the next two weeks.
Hydro Lithium (101670 KS) was the highest ranked non-constituent from the Industrials sector at the June rebalance and could replace Nice Information Service (030190 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS) has no chance of inclusion in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) and will not be short sell eligible post section transfer.

Ohayo Japan| AI Bid; Strong GDP->more Hikes? Stocks Drop; NUGGET: Steel Decarb-Advantage Tokyo Steel

By Mark Chadwick

OVERSEAS. SOX 1.9% bid as Generative AI drives bid for semis/tech hardware; Booming US Economy as GDP prints 2.4% driving yields higher; But USD weaker vs Yen on BOJ.
JAPAN. NKY Futures -1% vs Cash; USDJPY 139. 5; Really all about the BOJ as the Nikkei broke news on potential YCC tweak; Earnings deluge: -ve Shin-etsu; Fujitsu.
NUGGET. Tokyo Steel has more advantages than meets the eye. No need for the massive capex in the crucial process that Nippon Steel or JFE needs to put out. Bullish.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Short-Term Blip Provides Opportunity

By Angus Mackintosh

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1H2023 results that were marred by an operational blip, with 2Q2023 impacted but this is likely to abate in 2H2023.
The company continues to stand out for its leading position in collateralized lending backed by 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, shophouses and property, with an accomplished 15-year track record
BFI Finance Indonesia remains the top pick to play the increasing growth from multi-finance in Indonesia. It trades on 2x FY2023E PBV, forecast to book an ROE over 20%.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) – Reasons to Be Careful

By Victor Galliano

The SoftBank share price rally is, in our view, based on optimism around the Arm IPO, the Yen’s relative weakness and recovering share prices of public companies in the portfolio
Nvidia’s emergence as a potential anchor investor in the Arm IPO has boosted SoftBank shares, yet there is still a big disparity between groups in terms of Arm’s potential valuation
Aside from a recovery in public tech companies’ shares, Yen weakness has supported SoftBank’s asset values; monetary policy moves now indicate the prospect of a stronger Yen versus the USD

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

By Brian Freitas

The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Oci Co Ltd, Novelis Corporation, Usinas Siderurgicas De Minas and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

OCI Holdings Announces a Tender Offer to Buy 45% Stake in OCI Co
Novelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
Usiminas – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

OCI Holdings Announces a Tender Offer to Buy 45% Stake in OCI Co

By Douglas Kim

On 28 July, OCI Holdings (010060 KS) announced that it plans to conduct a tender offer to purchase up to 45% stake in OCI Co (456040 KS).
The tender offer price of OCI Co is 139,000 won. The method of this tender offer is to issue new common shares of OCI Holdings.
In the short term (one month), we expect OCI Co’s shares to outperform OCI Holdings shares. This deal is structured to mainly benefit the OCI Group’s insiders.

Novelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Novelis’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
Novelis is the world’s largest producer of flat-rolled aluminium products and the largest recycler of aluminium globally.

Usiminas – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Usiminas’ ESG as “Adequate”, reflecting its “Adequate” scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.
Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA (Usiminas) is one of Brazil’s largest steel-makers. The company’s key flat-steel production and iron-ore mining business units together account for the bulk of consolidated EBITDA.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Health Care: Cipla Ltd, Eoflow , Genscript Biotech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Talon Energy, Pacific Current, Toshiba, Eoflow, 111 Inc
China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.28) – Starting Point of New Prosperity, MNCs Change Strategy, Genscript

2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised

By Tina Banerjee

Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.
Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.
Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Talon Energy, Pacific Current, Toshiba, Eoflow, 111 Inc

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Talon Energy (TPD AU)‘s non-binding Offer from Strike Energy (STX AU); and Pacific Current (PAC AU)‘s cash/scrip NBIO from Regal Partners (RPL AU).
Key updates took place for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Eoflow (294090 KS), and 111 Inc (YI US).

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.28) – Starting Point of New Prosperity, MNCs Change Strategy, Genscript

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

AD (Alzheimer Disease) and RNAi are one of the most valuable breakthroughs in global pharmaceutical industry in recent years. We think they may bring the next round of biopharmaceutical prosperity.
MNCs have begun to adjust their strategic business model in China. Licensing cooperation and equity investments in China biotech companies are expected to become a new trend.
We can’t expect too much from Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) just because Legend Bio’s CAR-T product has good sales performance. Genscript could underperform based on our analysis.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief United States: Novelis Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Novelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Novelis – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Novelis’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
Novelis is the world’s largest producer of flat-rolled aluminium products and the largest recycler of aluminium globally.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jul 30

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Hynix, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

SK Hynix. Making HBM While AI Shines
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate
ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

SK Hynix. Making HBM While AI Shines

By William Keating

SK Hynix’s Q2’23 revenue increased ~50% QoQ with bit shipment growth of ~35% for DRAM, ~50% for NAND
AI-Driven demand for DDR5 & HBM pushed DRAM QoQ ASP growth into positive territory for the first time in 9 months.
But it’s still stormy weather ahead as mainstream DRAM, along with NAND ASPs continue their downward slide

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

By David Blennerhassett

NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)‘s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023.
Don’t punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.

ECM Weekly (30th July 2023) – Tryt, Genda, Cinema XXI, Abacus, Robosense, Qiniu, Muthoot, LianLian

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, the coming week will see Cinema XXI listing.
Given that we are in the middle of earnings season, there were no new placements this week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

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