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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Hanmi Science, CSL Ltd, M3 Inc, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm
  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU): FY23 Guidance Cut Drags Near-Term Prospect; Long-Term Growth Drivers Still Intact
  • M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing
  • ESG Report: Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co. (128940 KS) And Hanmi Science (008930 KS)


A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm

By Douglas Kim

  • There has been a big divergence in the share prices of Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm in the past two months. 
  • This divergence in share price appears to be a bit too excessive and we believe this gap is likely to narrow in the coming weeks.  
  • We like a pair trade between going long Hanmi Science and going short on Hanmi Pharm. 

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): FY23 Guidance Cut Drags Near-Term Prospect; Long-Term Growth Drivers Still Intact

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU) has reduced its profit projection for FY23 due to higher-than-anticipated adverse impact from Fx. The company now expects a Fx headwind of $230–250M from $175M earlier.
  • After considering modest recovery of CSL Behring gross margin and generic competition for Ferinject in Europe, CSL expects FY24 NPATA to grow 13–18% to $2.9–3.0B at constant currency.
  • All eyes are now on the U.S. launch of the one-time gene therapy Hemgenix for Hemophilia B. CSL expects the first patient to take Hemgenix within the next few weeks.

M3: Growth Slowing Down Despite Long List of M&As Continuing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3’s share price dropped around 9% after 4QFY03/2023 earnings, however, it went up by more than 8% since then following the announcement regarding the acquisition of Kantar’s healthcare research businesses.
  • Our estimates suggest that new acquisition would not contribute to any meaningful growth in the near term. Despite having large no. of M&A deals, growth rates have started to fall.
  • We think there is further downside to M3 Inc (2413 JP) ‘s consensus FY+2 earnings estimates and we would recommend shorting the stock.

ESG Report: Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co. (128940 KS) And Hanmi Science (008930 KS)

By Heejeong (Hollie) Park

  • Hanmi Pharmaceutical and Hanmi Science have demonstrated consistent financial performance through aggressive R&D investments, with significant achievements based on internally developed products in 2022.
  • The new leadership structure of the company has the potential to improve corporate governance transparency, but there is a need for further shareholder-friendly changes, such as expanding dividend policies.
  • Overall, the company’s current status, valuation, and ESG performance trends indicate positive prospects, including transparent management practices, sustained investment in R&D, and plans to enhance dividend policies.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Austal Ltd, Cirrus Aircraft and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest
  • Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

By Arun George

  • Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, according to AFR. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.
  • Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. 
  • Andrew Forrest’s 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries. 
  • According to F&S, the SR2X Series aircraft represented 46.3% of the market share in the fixed tricycle gear certified piston aircraft segment based on delivered units in 2022. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Austal Ltd, Cirrus Aircraft and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest
  • Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

By Arun George

  • Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, according to AFR. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.
  • Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. 
  • Andrew Forrest’s 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries. 
  • According to F&S, the SR2X Series aircraft represented 46.3% of the market share in the fixed tricycle gear certified piston aircraft segment based on delivered units in 2022. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Property, Great Eagle Holdings, Abacus Storage King, JD Property, EURO/US DOLLAR, Bank of Montreal, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Heliad Equity Partners Gmbh and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Offers ASK – The Back End Trade Is Still Better
  • Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK): Copy That!
  • ASK Listing – Asset Quality Seems to Trump It’s Peer, However Settlement Period Is Long
  • JD Property Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation
  • JD Property IPO: The Bear Case
  • ECB Watch: 6 Charts on How EUR QT Impacts Markets
  • Bank of Montreal: Targeting The Immigrant Population Of Canada – Key Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties
  • Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab


Abacus Offers ASK – The Back End Trade Is Still Better

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, Abacus Property (ABP AU) units were halted for trading and the Institutional Offer for Abacus Storage King (future ASK AU) units were launched. 
  • The Offer is underwritten by Barrenjoey and Morgan Stanley. The Institutional Offer will be completed by Friday, and results announced Monday 19 June, with trading halt lifted. 
  • Then the Retail portion of the Offer will be conducted til 27 July. EGM the same day. Delayed settlement trading of ASK and New ABP (ABG AU) will start 1Aug.

Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK): Copy That!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Ever since Lo Ying-shek, the founder of Great Eagle (41 HK) passed away in 2006, as invariably happens, family relations deteriorated as the children sought to assert control over GE.
  • Matters reached a crescendo when Lo’s wife brought legal action against HSBC International Trustee in 2016 as executor of a large % of shares into GE. 
  • That plaintiff action failed, as did subsequent appeals. The latest battle centers on a judge’s ruling which extensively incorporated (read copied) the defendant’s submission in his final decision. 

ASK Listing – Asset Quality Seems to Trump It’s Peer, However Settlement Period Is Long

By Clarence Chu

  • Abacus Property (ABP AU) is looking to de-staple Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) , its self-storage business. The offer will be underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barrenjoey.
  • Offering 1 ASK share for every 5.6 ABP share, the REIT is looking to raise A$225m (US$153m) via offering 159.6m shares at a A$1.41-1.47/share price band.
  • The deal is effectively an IPO, and after having been in the making for some time now, it is well flagged as well.

JD Property Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes, in this note we will discuss our initial thoughts on valuation. 

JD Property IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • JD Property (JDP HK)/JDP, a leading modern infrastructure provider in Asia, has filed for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO. JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) owns a 74.96% stake.
  • In JD Property IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on the low Fund AUM mix, declining fee rate, EBITDA flattered by FV changes, EBITDA lagging revenue growth, and high cash burn.

ECB Watch: 6 Charts on How EUR QT Impacts Markets

By Andreas Steno

  • With EUR QT now increasing in speed we look at the ramifications
  • EUR liquidity matters for EUR markets and FX/Rates in particular
  • QT and TLTROs will now lead to declining liquidity in EUR 

Bank of Montreal: Targeting The Immigrant Population Of Canada – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bank of Montreal delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • Despite the changing climate, BMO produced strong results, benefiting from a full quarter of Bank of the West results.
  • The bank’s performance reflects the continued strength of its highly diversified business mix, with good PPPT growth in its Canadian and American Personal and Commercial Banking businesses, while weaker markets and lower client activity impacted the Wealth and Capital Markets businesses.

Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Heliad Equity Partners – Plans to merge with FinLab

By Edison Investment Research

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) saw a decline in its NAV per share between end-2021 and end-March 2023 of c 48% to €7.35, mostly on the back of the de-ratings of listed holdings (in particular flatexDEGIRO), as well as an NAV dilutive share issue in March 2023. That said, the valuations of HEP’s private holdings have remained largely resilient during recent funding rounds, and Enpal even carried out a new round in Q422 at a significant uplift to its previous valuation. Moreover, flatexDEGIRO’s share price has rebounded by c 32% in the year to date. HEP recently announced its intention to enter into merger negotiations with FinLab (its major shareholder and owner of HEP’s investment manager).


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Daily Brief Consumer: Sula Vineyards, Cie Financiere Richemont Sa, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Games Workshop Group PLC and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sula Vineyards IPO Lock-Up – Large Investor Could Look to Completely Exit
  • Richemont: Prestigious Maisons
  • Fewer Companies Still Use Capital Efficiency Such as ROE as KPIs for Variable Compensation
  • Games Workshop Group – FY23 profit ahead of previous FY24 estimates


Sula Vineyards IPO Lock-Up – Large Investor Could Look to Completely Exit

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sula Vineyards  raised around US$117m in its India IPO in Dec 2022.
  • Sula Vineyards (SV) distributes wines under a bouquet of brands. In addition to its flagship brand “Sula,” popular brands include “RASA,” “Dindori”, “The source,” “Satori”, “Madera” & “Dia”. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Richemont: Prestigious Maisons

By Alexis Dwek

  • FY 2023 was a record year for Richemont with double-digit growth, confirming the Company’s best-in-class fundamentals (pricing power and high barriers to entry), and resilience to challenging market conditions
  • Coming out of the pandemic, Richemont Jewellery Maisons have been one of the clear market share winners in the sector
  • The Company’s strong sales, profit and cash flows confirm the strong appeal for its Maisons and relevance for long-term growth

Fewer Companies Still Use Capital Efficiency Such as ROE as KPIs for Variable Compensation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Overseas investors have called for increasing the ratio of variable compensation to executive compensation. Given that foreign ownership ratios have remained high, this upward trend is expected to continue.
  • Few companies use capital efficiency like ROE as KPIs for variable compensation, which is consistent with the fact that few companies set them as numerical targets in mid-term management plans.
  • The role of independent directors has become more important as more companies are involving compensation committees in the compensation determination process since the 2001 amendments to the Companies Law.

Games Workshop Group – FY23 profit ahead of previous FY24 estimates

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) FY23 trading update indicates an improvement in underlying trading in the latter months of the period and the expected easing of cost pressures. The strength of the improvement is evident in the fact that FY23 PBT is greater than both our previous FY23 and FY24 estimates. We upgrade our FY24 PBT estimates by c 4%, which incorporates an underlying upgrade offset by a new foreign exchange headwind.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Pang Rim Co Ltd, S.M.Entertainment Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • 5 Stocks in Korea Drop Limit Down – Caused by CFD Derivatives Related Margin Call Again?
  • SM Entertainment: EXO’s Contract Controversy and Repeated Working Condition Issues


5 Stocks in Korea Drop Limit Down – Caused by CFD Derivatives Related Margin Call Again?

By Douglas Kim

  • There were five stocks in Korea that dropped limit down (30%) today. They included Pang Rim, Dongil Industries, Manho Rope & Wire, Taihan Textile, and Dongil Metal.
  • The share price decline of these five stocks are similar to the crash in eight stocks in Korea in April which were related to CFD derivatives related margin call selling. 
  • Domestic securities firms in Korea have been trying to significantly reduce their exposure to CFD related trading and in this process, these sharp drops could be caused by this selling.

SM Entertainment: EXO’s Contract Controversy and Repeated Working Condition Issues

By Jungmin(Charlotte) Hong

  • EXO’s Chen, Baekhyun, and Xiumin filed a complaint to the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) on June 4 against SM Entertainment for “abuse of superior bargaining position.”
  • SM Entertainment repeatedly faced sanctions by the FTC for disputes, including controversy and conflicts with another boy band ‘Dong Bang Shin Ki’ (TVXQ) 
  • The risk to their working conditions continues to increase, with SM Entertainment’s corporate risk currently standing at 4.2, reaching an extreme level.

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Daily Brief Singapore: AIMS APAC REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Kopi-C with AIMS APAC REIT’s CEO: ‘Property is a people business’


Kopi-C with AIMS APAC REIT’s CEO: ‘Property is a people business’

By Geoff Howie

  • Kopi-C with AIMS APAC REIT’s CEO: ‘Property is a people business’ Russell Ng, CEO of AIMS APAC REIT, believes that to build a strong foundation for growth, the quality of its portfolio and active stakeholder engagement goes hand in hand.
  • That is the ethos adopted by AIMS APAC REIT (AA REIT) CEO Russell Ng, who has been steadily building on its real estate business, laying it out stone by stone, asset by asset.

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Daily Brief United States: ASP Isotopes , Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPDR S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ASP Isotopes – Initiation of Coverage Report – Isotope Market Overview
  • Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials
  • SPY: Moderate Gains In Store?


ASP Isotopes – Initiation of Coverage Report – Isotope Market Overview

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on ASP Isotopes and we look to provide a detailed account of the various assets owned by the company and the drivers that will be responsible for the company’s growth in the coming years.
  • ASP Isotopes’ proprietary isotope enrichment technology should enable the company to produce many of these isotopes, as shown in the diagram below.
  • When combined with the company’s second manufacturing plant, scheduled to start production during 2H 2023, ASP Isotopes should generate substantial free cash flow during 2024.

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
  • As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
  • Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.

SPY: Moderate Gains In Store?

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • The SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust is primed to receive support from lower implied risk premiums amid an interest rate slowdown from the Federal Reserve.
  • However, a broad-based analysis suggests that the S&R 500 and the SPDR S &P 500ETF Trust are potentially undervalued.
  • The S&P 500’s (SP500) year-to-date surge might have surprised many, as the talk of the town at the turn of the year was geared toward a sustained market drawdown until an interest rate pivot occurred.

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Daily Brief India: State Bank Of India, SBFC Finance Limited, Sunac China Holdings, Tata Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • CPSE / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in June
  • SBFC Finance Pre-IPO – Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality
  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources
  • Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Middling


CPSE / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • The CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will have its quarterly rebalancing at the close on 29 June.
  • There are no constituent changes for the indices in June but there will be capping and float changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on many stocks.
  • Both indices have performed well over the recent past and active investors can take advantage of the passive flows to increase or decrease existing positions.

SBFC Finance Pre-IPO – Has Grown Fast While Maintaining Asset Quality

By Ethan Aw

  • SBFC Finance Limited (1547353D IN) is looking to raise up to US$145m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold. 
  • Even through COVID-19, it had managed to more than double its AUM through its branch expansion efforts. However, its NIM declined over the track record period and profitability growth slowed. 

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sunac China Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Tata Technologies Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Middling

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN)  (TT) is looking to raise around US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Tata Technologies is a global engineering services company offering product development and digital solutions, including turnkey solutions, to global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their tier 1 suppliers. 
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes, in this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Nissin Foods Holdings, Chiba Bank, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Takuma Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO
  • Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power
  • Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs
  • Paramount Bed (7817 JP): All-Time Revenue and Profit in FY23; Further Upside Potential Remains
  • Takuma (6031) | AVI to Turn Waste into Wealth


Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, YFO (WK1 Limited) filed an amendment to its Large Shareholder Filing saying it had increased its stake from 27.19% to 28.51%. GK Yamauchi No10 Family Office bought 1.32%.
  • Almost immediately, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) said YFO had likely conducted an illegal act according to US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Rule 14e-5. This is likely hogwash.
  • YFO is upping its stake for a zero premium tender and Toyo is fighting old battles. And the stock chugs higher.

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan’s inflation hit a 41-year high at 4.3% in January, but gradually slowed down in the following months, reaching 3.3%, 3.2%, and 3.5% in February, March, and April 2023, respectively.
  • Although Fuel, Electricity, and Water prices declined, other items excluding fresh vegetables, maintained inflation at a similar pace, suggesting that cost-push inflation continues to impact the overall economic environment.
  • This insight examines the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven & I, our top picks in the Japan Consumer Staples Sector Smartkarma Original.

Chiba Bank – Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • If there is no relief on yield curve control (YCC) anytime soon, seek banks with low JGBs
  • Chiba Bank is one of few banks in Japan where JGBs are nearly a rounding error vs assets
  • A pure play on an improving Japan, focused next door to Tokyo, with falling NPLs

Paramount Bed (7817 JP): All-Time Revenue and Profit in FY23; Further Upside Potential Remains

By Tina Banerjee

  • Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported all-time high revenue and profit in FY23, driven by increased demand and price revision effect. The company has announced dividend of ¥59/share.
  • For FY24, Paramount expects revenue growth of 6% to ¥105B, driven by expanding recurring revenue. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 4% and 6%, YoY, respectively, in FY24.
  • Through business expansion and new product launches, the company is on track to achieve mid-term target of revenue of ¥120B and operating income of ¥17B in FY27.

Takuma (6031) | AVI to Turn Waste into Wealth

By Mark Chadwick

  • Takuma presents an undervalued investment opportunity with strong financials, and a robust balance sheet. The focus on environmental solutions position it to capitalize on the demand for carbon neutrality.
  • The recent involvement of AVI Japan as activist investors adds an exciting catalyst to Takuma’s investment case. We expect AVI to work with management to unlock further value.
  • Takuma’s management is targeting enhanced profitability by transitioning from a more volatile EPC model to a recurring revenue-driven approach centred on O&M. Attractive valuations underpin our bullish view.

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