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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
  • Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges
  • [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
  • Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle
  • Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520
  • StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs
  • Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside
  • Robinhood’s Acquisition of WonderFi Faces Regulatory Hurdles Amid Canada’s New Crypto Exchange Rules


[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
  • That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
  • There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges

By Arun George

  • SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
  • The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
  • SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%). 

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%

By Travis Lundy

  • Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%. 
  • Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender. 
  • With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

By Travis Lundy

  • Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)
  • SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
  • Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle

By Sanghyun Park

  • FSC confirms December rollout; beyond procedural cleanup, this structural shift in flows brings small-to-mid shops and offshore retail, creating new order patterns in the local market.
  • Omnibus accounts aggregate orders under one broker, blurring classic smart-money signals, slowing local retail follow-ons, and creating wider price-action gaps in the order book.
  • MSCI volatility trades also require attention; the omnibus rollout will likely intensify flows as new accounts follow major institutions, impacting the Korea sleeve short-term.

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

By Arun George

  • Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
  • The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
  • The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs

By David Blennerhassett

  • I see Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) trading around all-time highs – both the implied stub (net of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280). 
  • Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.
  • The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.
  • For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.

Robinhood’s Acquisition of WonderFi Faces Regulatory Hurdles Amid Canada’s New Crypto Exchange Rules

By Special Situation Investments

  • Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi Technologies at C$0.36/share faces CIRO approval, expected to close in H1 2026.
  • The spread widened to 36% after the closing date was delayed due to a longer CIRO review.
  • Robinhood’s controversial compliance history includes US$300m in fines, aligning with industry standards for crypto exchanges.

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Daily Brief Credit: Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

By Leandro Gubler

  • Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.
  • North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.
  • We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke
  • UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.
  • The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.

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Daily Brief Macro: Iron Ore Upside Persists and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Upside Persists, but Easing Fundamentals and Risk Reduction Cap Enthusiasm
  • Foreigners Integrated Accounts Starting in January 2026: Impact on IBKR & Foreign Trading Platforms
  • CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Shift to ‘Asset-Light’ Models in Overseas Expansion
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 Nov 2025
  • Japan:  Cautious Reengagment
  • BOK: Rate Cut Hopes Damped by Stickier Inflation
  • Oil futures: Crude prices nudge up, benchmarks rangebound
  • China & HK: Rebuild Slows Amid Heavy Sector and Stock Rotation


Iron Ore Upside Persists, but Easing Fundamentals and Risk Reduction Cap Enthusiasm

By Umang Agrawal

  • Iron ore futures hit a three-week high as shipments fell by 8.3% WoW, but blast furnace shutdowns signal weak demand and limit further upside.
  • Managed money participants reduced net long exposure across all futures and options expiries, reflecting a more cautious market stance.
  • The DCE-SGX spread has retreated from the upper Bollinger band and slipped below the 9-day MA, indicating softening momentum. 

Foreigners Integrated Accounts Starting in January 2026: Impact on IBKR & Foreign Trading Platforms

By Douglas Kim

  • On 27 November, the Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) finally announced that it has completely abolished the restrictions on the foreigners opening integrated accounts to trade Korean stocks.
  • This amendment will start to take effect on 2 January 2026.
  • What this means is that major global trading platforms such as IBKR will most likely be allowed to trade Korean stocks without any major restrictions sometime starting 1H 2026.

CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Shift to ‘Asset-Light’ Models in Overseas Expansion

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: Chinese Carmakers Shift to ‘Asset-Light’ Models in Overseas Expansion
  • Yuan Rallies to One-Year High on Trade Optimism and Fed Cut Bets
  • Ant Group Delays Hong Kong Brokerage Takeover as Beijing Approval Drags

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 Nov 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • United States recession indicators are turning increasingly negative, with construction, retail, and regional Federal Reserve surveys signalling broad economic weakness.

  • Bank of Korea held rates steady, while Asia shows mixed but occasionally strong export trends despite global trade frictions.

  • Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing and service activity reports posted sharp declines, reinforcing a deteriorating United States outlook.


Japan:  Cautious Reengagment

By Steven Holden

  • Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.
  • Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.
  • Tech & Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.

BOK: Rate Cut Hopes Damped by Stickier Inflation

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BOK maintained 2.5% rates as the consensus expected. Upward inflation revisions to 2.1% (2025) and 2.1% (2026) signal stronger price persistence than previously forecast, increasing rate-cut caution.
  • Policy remains data-dependent with the “possibility” of cuts only after material disinflationary evidence emerges. Financial stability risks around housing and household debt levels now drive policy constraints more than growth concerns.
  • Exchange rate depreciation and sticky service inflation create headwinds against achieving the 2% target, likely keeping rates elevated through early 2026 despite modest growth recovery expectations of 1.8%.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Oil futures: Crude prices nudge up, benchmarks rangebound

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were moving sideways Thursday as markets entered into a holding pattern amid ongoing talks on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
  • Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $63.34/b (1930 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.13/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $59.10/b against a previous close of $58.65/b.
  • Analysts said that while both Moscow and Kyiv have accepted versions of the US-brokered plan, there are still several key sticking points, particularly regarding Russia’s territorial demands.

China & HK: Rebuild Slows Amid Heavy Sector and Stock Rotation

By Steven Holden

  • China exposure among GEM funds has rebounded to 26%, up from the 2024 low, but still far below the 37.5% peak. India has eased while Taiwan allocations hit new highs.
  • China remains a major EM underweight at -3.09% vs. benchmark, despite rising allocations. High Active funds stay the most underweight
  • Industrials see the strongest buying, while Utilities and Consumer sectors decline. Tencent and Alibaba dominate ownership, but many new names are entering the picture.

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Daily Brief India: Mphasis Ltd, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Waterways Leisure Tourism, Tata Capital Limited, Paytm, Olectra Greentech, Dynamatic Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue
  • Asian Equities: India’s Nifty Is at All-Time High, These Quality Stocks Are Not.
  • Cordelia Cruises IPO: A Game-Changer in India’s Growing Cruise Market
  • Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO
  • Primer: Paytm (PAYTM IN) – Nov 2025
  • Olectra Greentech Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • The Beat Ideas: Dynamatic Technologies – An Indian Tier-1 Supplier’s Flight Path in Global Aerospace


Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue

By Nitin Mangal

  • Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) is a global information technology (IT) services and consulting company that specializes in providing cloud and cognitive services to help enterprises undergo digital transformation. 
  • It is majority-owned by the Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms.
  • Key forensic takeaways include hints of aggressive revenue booking via unbilled receivables, risk of goodwill impairment, etc.

Asian Equities: India’s Nifty Is at All-Time High, These Quality Stocks Are Not.

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • India’s Nifty50 index reached an all-time high yesterday. However, many Indian stocks are near their 52-week lows. Many among them have strong forecast earnings growth, good balance sheets, attractive valuations.
  • We screen 17 stocks with double digit forecast EPS growth, PEG < 1.4x, net debt to equity less than 50%. They are spread across construction, chemicals, healthcare, industrials and technology.
  • The largest five are Deepak Nitrite (DN IN), Cohance Lifesciences, BASF India Ltd (BASF IN), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN), Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN).

Cordelia Cruises IPO: A Game-Changer in India’s Growing Cruise Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Cordelia Cruises, India’s only domestic cruise operator, is going public through an IPO of Rs. 7.27 billion. It plans to triple its fleet by 2028, expanding its passenger capacity significantly.
  • The Indian cruise market remains under-penetrated with a CAGR forecast of 35-40% from FY2025-2030, creating a prime opportunity for growth, especially for domestic players like Cordelia.
  • The IPO is a crucial step for Cordelia to expand its fleet, cater to increasing demand, and capitalize on the underpenetrated Indian cruise market.

Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) went public on 13 October 2025 on NSE and has a current market cap of over $15bn.
  • Partial inclusion in Global indices is expected in June 2026, as the security fails the float cap threshold in one Global index.
  • Free float is projected to increase incrementally following lock-up expiries of anchor investors and pre-offer shareholders.

Primer: Paytm (PAYTM IN) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Paytm is a leading digital payments and financial services company in India, evolving from a mobile wallet to a comprehensive ecosystem encompassing payments, commerce, and high-margin financial products like lending and insurance.
  • The company is navigating an intensely competitive landscape, dominated by PhonePe and Google Pay in the UPI segment, and a dynamic regulatory environment overseen by the Reserve Bank of India.
  • After a history of significant losses, recent quarterly results indicate a strategic shift towards profitability, driven by growth in financial services distribution and cost optimization, marking a potential inflection point for the company’s financial trajectory.

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Olectra Greentech Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Olectra Greentech (OLECTRA IN) , part of the MEIL Group, has transformed from a power insulator manufacturer into a pioneer and leading player in India’s electric mobility segment.
  • The company is primarily known as the largest pure-electric bus manufacturer in India, operating through a long-term technology partnership with China’s BYD Auto Industry Co Ltd.
  • Heavy reliance of the company on its associates for the sale of EVs, along with supplier concentration warrants attention. However, cash flow generation is improving, which is a positive

The Beat Ideas: Dynamatic Technologies – An Indian Tier-1 Supplier’s Flight Path in Global Aerospace

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The structural shift in Dynamatic Technologies’ revenue mix is accelerating, with the high-margin Aerospace segment now contributing 82% of consolidated EBITDA in FY25, underpinned by major new contract industrialization.
  • The premium valuation is justified by its annuity-like, high-barrier sole-supplier status for the Airbus A320 family and significant new program wins (Airbus A220 doors), providing a multi-decade visibility.
  • DTL’s core value is increasingly diverging from its legacy segments; success hinges on efficient capital deployment in India and mitigating the persistent drag from its European Metallurgy business.

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Daily Brief China: Iron Ore, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Vobile Group, Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Upside Persists, but Easing Fundamentals and Risk Reduction Cap Enthusiasm
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline
  • Primer: Vobile Group (3738 HK) – Nov 2025
  • Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) IPO: Volume Growth Play Make This Noodles Joint Savoury Enough


Iron Ore Upside Persists, but Easing Fundamentals and Risk Reduction Cap Enthusiasm

By Umang Agrawal

  • Iron ore futures hit a three-week high as shipments fell by 8.3% WoW, but blast furnace shutdowns signal weak demand and limit further upside.
  • Managed money participants reduced net long exposure across all futures and options expiries, reflecting a more cautious market stance.
  • The DCE-SGX spread has retreated from the upper Bollinger band and slipped below the 9-day MA, indicating softening momentum. 

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • In this insight, we discuss about various aspects of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) ‘s H1 FY2026 financial performance. It discusses about divergent performance by region and product.
  • Details in this note include why dark clouds are looming over the stock price of this counter and why the valuation multiple could decline.
  • Finally, we conclude discuss on valuation and how this will impact the stock price.

Primer: Vobile Group (3738 HK) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Vobile Group is a global leader in SaaS solutions for digital content asset protection and monetization, poised for growth driven by the proliferation of online video and the increasing need for intellectual property protection.
  • The company is strategically focused on leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance its service offerings and is expanding its footprint in the rapidly growing Chinese market, which now accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.
  • Recent financial performance indicates strong top-line growth and improving profitability, with a notable surge in net profit and expanding gross margins, though the company currently does not pay a dividend.

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Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) IPO: Volume Growth Play Make This Noodles Joint Savoury Enough

By Tina Banerjee

  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (XNC HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$686M. The company plans to sell 97.4M shares at HK$5.64-$7.04 per share.
  • Xiao Noodles are a Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China. They operate the Xiao Noodles brand in the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong SAR.
  • The growth outlook quite justifies the incremental valuation. We think Xiao Noodles issue is attractively priced and investors can surely look to have a share in this secular growth story.

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Daily Brief United States: Wynn Resorts, NVIDIA Corp, Cross The Ages, Crude Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs
  • The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia’s Warranty Reserves Spike 168%
  • Cross the Ages: IP-Based Transmedia Operation in GameFi
  • Oil futures: Crude prices nudge up, benchmarks rangebound


StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs

By David Blennerhassett

  • I see Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) trading around all-time highs – both the implied stub (net of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280). 
  • Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia’s Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
  • The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
  • Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.

Cross the Ages: IP-Based Transmedia Operation in GameFi

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Cross the Ages (CTA) exemplifies the transmedia IP practice in the gaming sector by establishing literary content as its foundational asset and expanding it across interactive and physical formats.
  • The game originated from a seven-volume dystopian novel saga and began development in 2020, leading the team to secure a $12 million Series A investment in March 2022.
  • The Trading Card Game (TCG), the flagship product, is designed to translate narrative elements into interactive gameplay. The TCG has achieved over 400,000 cumulative worldwide downloads and maintains robust engagement with approximately 148,000 monthly active users.

Oil futures: Crude prices nudge up, benchmarks rangebound

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were moving sideways Thursday as markets entered into a holding pattern amid ongoing talks on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
  • Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $63.34/b (1930 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.13/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $59.10/b against a previous close of $58.65/b.
  • Analysts said that while both Moscow and Kyiv have accepted versions of the US-brokered plan, there are still several key sticking points, particularly regarding Russia’s territorial demands.

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Daily Brief Japan: Bengo4.Com Inc, Digital Holdings Inc, Mandom Corp, Chugoku Electric Power Co, Toyota Motor, Japan Post Bank, Daido Steel, Nicca Chemical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
  • Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges
  • [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
  • Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Nov 2025 Ranks
  • Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return
  • Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale
  • DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD (5471 JP): RESEARCH UPDATE
  • Primer: Nicca Chemical (4463 JP) – Nov 2025


[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
  • That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
  • There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges

By Arun George

  • SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
  • The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
  • SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%). 

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%

By Travis Lundy

  • Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%. 
  • Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender. 
  • With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

By Travis Lundy

  • Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)
  • SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
  • Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

By Arun George

  • Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
  • The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
  • The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Nov 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at potential ADDs and DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2026 based on trading data as of end-November 2025.

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Toyota and short Suzuki targets a 7% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

By Rikki Malik

  • The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule
  • Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision
  • Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here

DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD (5471 JP): RESEARCH UPDATE

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Daido Steel (5471 JP) produced FY25 (March year-end) 1H OP [IFRS basis] of ¥18,464mil (+1.1% YoY) on sales of ¥284,499mil (+0.4% YoY).
  • Both sales and OP surpassed guidance which called for OP of ¥12,500mil (-31.5% YoY) on sales of ¥275,000mil (-3.0% YoY), thanks primarily to stronger than expected demand for ship engine valves in the open die forging business and despite having incurred about ¥2,300mil of costs related to the Superalloy Manufacturing Process Transformation Project, one of the firm’s ongoing strategic investments in the current MTP.
  • The Mid-Term Plan [MTP], which ends in FY26, was revised down to reflect (1) a larger than expected decline in steel product sales volumes, (2) sluggish auto production and weaker than expected industrial machinery-related orders and (3) increasing lack of clarity in the business environment.

Primer: Nicca Chemical (4463 JP) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Nicca Chemical is a leading Japanese specialty chemical manufacturer with a dual-pillar business model in Chemicals (surfactants for textiles, paper, etc.) and Cosmetics (professional hair care). The company holds a dominant market share in the domestic textile chemicals sector and is pursuing growth through high-value-added products and overseas expansion, primarily in Asia.
  • The company presents an attractive valuation profile, trading at a significant discount to book value and a low P/E ratio. This is complemented by a strong commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a robust dividend yield and a remarkable 3-year dividend per share CAGR of over 33%.
  • Future growth is expected to be driven by the “INNOVATION25″strategic plan, which focuses on increasing the sales ratio of high-value-added products (Environment, Health, Digital), expanding the cosmetics business, and improving capital efficiency with a focus on raising its price-to-book ratio.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Cross the Ages: IP-Based Transmedia Operation in GameFi and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cross the Ages: IP-Based Transmedia Operation in GameFi


Cross the Ages: IP-Based Transmedia Operation in GameFi

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Cross the Ages (CTA) exemplifies the transmedia IP practice in the gaming sector by establishing literary content as its foundational asset and expanding it across interactive and physical formats.
  • The game originated from a seven-volume dystopian novel saga and began development in 2020, leading the team to secure a $12 million Series A investment in March 2022.
  • The Trading Card Game (TCG), the flagship product, is designed to translate narrative elements into interactive gameplay. The TCG has achieved over 400,000 cumulative worldwide downloads and maintains robust engagement with approximately 148,000 monthly active users.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia’s Warranty Reserves Spike 168% and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia’s Warranty Reserves Spike 168%
  • Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline
  • Primer: Allfunds Group (ALLFG NA) – Nov 2025
  • Asian Equities: India’s Nifty Is at All-Time High, These Quality Stocks Are Not.
  • Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale
  • Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return
  • Cordelia Cruises IPO: A Game-Changer in India’s Growing Cruise Market
  • Primer: Vobile Group (3738 HK) – Nov 2025
  • DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD (5471 JP): RESEARCH UPDATE


The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia’s Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
  • The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
  • Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.

Mphasis Ltd- Unbilled Receivables to the Rescue

By Nitin Mangal

  • Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) is a global information technology (IT) services and consulting company that specializes in providing cloud and cognitive services to help enterprises undergo digital transformation. 
  • It is majority-owned by the Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms.
  • Key forensic takeaways include hints of aggressive revenue booking via unbilled receivables, risk of goodwill impairment, etc.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • In this insight, we discuss about various aspects of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) ‘s H1 FY2026 financial performance. It discusses about divergent performance by region and product.
  • Details in this note include why dark clouds are looming over the stock price of this counter and why the valuation multiple could decline.
  • Finally, we conclude discuss on valuation and how this will impact the stock price.

Primer: Allfunds Group (ALLFG NA) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Allfunds Group is a leading B2B WealthTech platform with a resilient business model, characterized by high recurring revenues and a strong network effect. Its extensive network of fund houses and distributors creates a significant competitive advantage.
  • The company is well-positioned to capitalize on secular growth trends in the wealth management industry, including the increasing demand for open architecture solutions and the ongoing digitalization of wealth management services.
  • Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Allfunds has demonstrated robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability. However, potential risks include margin pressure from competition and sensitivity to market fluctuations impacting assets under administration.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Asian Equities: India’s Nifty Is at All-Time High, These Quality Stocks Are Not.

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • India’s Nifty50 index reached an all-time high yesterday. However, many Indian stocks are near their 52-week lows. Many among them have strong forecast earnings growth, good balance sheets, attractive valuations.
  • We screen 17 stocks with double digit forecast EPS growth, PEG < 1.4x, net debt to equity less than 50%. They are spread across construction, chemicals, healthcare, industrials and technology.
  • The largest five are Deepak Nitrite (DN IN), Cohance Lifesciences, BASF India Ltd (BASF IN), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN), Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN).

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

By Rikki Malik

  • The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule
  • Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision
  • Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Reignites with 7% Target Return

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Toyota and short Suzuki targets a 7% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Cordelia Cruises IPO: A Game-Changer in India’s Growing Cruise Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Cordelia Cruises, India’s only domestic cruise operator, is going public through an IPO of Rs. 7.27 billion. It plans to triple its fleet by 2028, expanding its passenger capacity significantly.
  • The Indian cruise market remains under-penetrated with a CAGR forecast of 35-40% from FY2025-2030, creating a prime opportunity for growth, especially for domestic players like Cordelia.
  • The IPO is a crucial step for Cordelia to expand its fleet, cater to increasing demand, and capitalize on the underpenetrated Indian cruise market.

Primer: Vobile Group (3738 HK) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Vobile Group is a global leader in SaaS solutions for digital content asset protection and monetization, poised for growth driven by the proliferation of online video and the increasing need for intellectual property protection.
  • The company is strategically focused on leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance its service offerings and is expanding its footprint in the rapidly growing Chinese market, which now accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.
  • Recent financial performance indicates strong top-line growth and improving profitability, with a notable surge in net profit and expanding gross margins, though the company currently does not pay a dividend.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD (5471 JP): RESEARCH UPDATE

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Daido Steel (5471 JP) produced FY25 (March year-end) 1H OP [IFRS basis] of ¥18,464mil (+1.1% YoY) on sales of ¥284,499mil (+0.4% YoY).
  • Both sales and OP surpassed guidance which called for OP of ¥12,500mil (-31.5% YoY) on sales of ¥275,000mil (-3.0% YoY), thanks primarily to stronger than expected demand for ship engine valves in the open die forging business and despite having incurred about ¥2,300mil of costs related to the Superalloy Manufacturing Process Transformation Project, one of the firm’s ongoing strategic investments in the current MTP.
  • The Mid-Term Plan [MTP], which ends in FY26, was revised down to reflect (1) a larger than expected decline in steel product sales volumes, (2) sluggish auto production and weaker than expected industrial machinery-related orders and (3) increasing lack of clarity in the business environment.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Chugoku Electric Power Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Nov 2025 Ranks


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Nov 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at potential ADDs and DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2026 based on trading data as of end-November 2025.

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